Remnants of Emily could redevelop; Muifa batters Okinawa; Central U.S. roasts
Tropical Storm Emily degraded into an open tropical wave yesterday afternoon, after Hurricane Hunters could no longer locate a center of circulation at the surface. Through the morning yesterday, the storm appeared to lose most of its strong thunderstorm activity on the north side, and mid-level circulation was broad (tropical cyclones need a tight, coherent circulation to maintain themselves). Soon after the Hurricane Hunters took a pass through the storm, the National Hurricane Center demoted Emily from a tropical storm to a remnant low, while continuing to stress the rainfall threat to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Today it appears the center of the remnants are located just north of eastern Cuba in the southern Bahamas, although thunderstorm activity continues across eastern Cuba. Hispaniola probably saw rain and thunderstorms again early this morning, the strongest of which were on the eastern side of the island. New thunderstorm activity is starting to develop in the southeast Bahamas. Given Wednesday's rain gauge analysis from CPC, Hispaniola probably saw at least an additional 5 inches of rain yesterday.
Environmental conditions remain pretty much the same as yesterday, but are expected to become more favorable for Emily's remnants, and redevelopment of the storm is possible. Circulation from the low to mid-levels is still broad and tilting to the east with height due to the lingering moderate westerly wind shear. However, this shear is expected to dissipate some over the next 24 hours, and signs of this are already present to the west of the remnants. The dry air that has been following the storm since its inception has dissipated, as well.
Figure 1. Satellite imagery of the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily as they move northwest away from Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas.
Forecast for Emily's Remnants
Interestingly, the models have come into better agreement on the forecast for former Emily now that it has lost its surface circulation and degenerated into a tropical wave. The ECMWF, which has come out ahead in this forecasting game so far, is optimistic today that Emily will redevelop. Other global models—GFS, CMC, and FIM—also redevelop the storm. Consensus on timing of redevelopment seems to be when the wave reaches the northern Bahamas in 24 to 48 hours. At 12Z (8am EDT), the high-resolution HWRF model run forecasted a track that was furthest to the west of all the models, scraping eastern Florida as it travels northwest. The most probable track and intensity forecast that I see at this point is north-northwest movement over the next 24 to 36 hours, at which point the system will take a fairly sharp turn to the northeast and out to sea. Without an already established, coherent circulation, it appears unlikely that if Emily is reborn it will intensify into anything more than a moderate tropical storm. However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.
Typhoon Muifa passes to the south of Okinawa, heads into East China Sea
The center of Typhoon Muifa passed to the south of Okinawa earlier this morning (Eastern time) and it continues to batter the islands with high winds and torrential rain. Local radar estimate rainfall rates as high as 80 mm/hour (approx. 3 inches/hour) in the strongest rain bands. Kadena Air Force Base near the city of Okinawa has been reporting sustained winds of 47 mph with gusts up to 72 mph. Muifa is expected to turn northwest today as it enters the East China Sea as a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and then intensify into a category 2 as it passes close to eastern China. This morning, the forecast is that Muifa will probably not make landfall anywhere as a typhoon.
Figure 2. Radar imagery from the Japan Meteorological Agency around 1am JST. Scale is in millimeters. Highest rainfall rates appear to be approximately 3 inches/hour.
South-Central U.S. continues to bake
The extreme heat continues again today after 269 high maximum and 250 high minimum temperature records were set yesterday, 19 and 29 of which were all-time records, respectively. 206 of yesterday's records were 110°F or higher. Yesterday, Reuters was reporting that Texas was one power plant shutdown away from rolling blackouts. The forecast today doesn't look any better. Heat index values up to 125° are forecast in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.
Particularly toasty heat index values from yesterday:
• Mobile, Alabama: 120°
• Arkadelphia, Arkansas: 121°
• Bay St. Louis, Mississippi: 121°
• Memphis, Tennessee: 122°
Figure 3. Heat index forecast from the ECMWF for today. Scale is in degrees Fahrenheit. You can plot model forecasts using Wundermap by choosing the "Model Data" layer.
Angela
Reader Comments
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SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
BETWEEN CENTRAL CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS
OF EMILY.
Not Scheduled, so I would say no.
Looks to me a similar situation as when they were flying it to determine if it was closed a few days back.
And if you had just awakened from a 30 day sleep and this was the very first thing you saw, what would you say, tropically and objectively speaking.
I alrady ignored him on the first post I saw from him. Can we get him banned again/still?
I believe the cmc had this scenerio as it is developing a while back. Kinda fizzling then cruising up the Fl west coast.
Splash Location: 23.33N 75.43W
Splash Time: 17:24Z
1014mb (Surface) 155° (from the SSE) 30 knots (35 mph)
12hrs:
3 HRs ago:
Now:
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI AUG 05 2011
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 22N76W JUST OFF THE COAST
OF CUBA ON THE BAHAMAS SIDE. THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS THE
REMNANT OF EMILY. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER
ACROSS CUBA TO CAYMAN BRAC AND LITTLE CAYMAN...AND THEN TO
15N81W IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 24N71W...IN THE
BAHAMAS FROM 21N TO 23N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W...AND OFF THE COAST
OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA BETWEEN CUBA AND JAMAICA FROM 19N TO 20N
ALONG 76W. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE
FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT ON SATURDAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS
SYSTEM MAY REGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH 15 MPH.
Is the G-IV doing a run now?
The western one near Cuba seems most dominant.
Definitely interesting... I also know, based on satellite imagery, there are thunderstorms in that vicinity.
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 22.8N 74.1W (View map)
Location: 211 miles (340 km) to the WNW (296°) from Cockburn Town, Turks and Caicos Islands (GBR).
Turbulence: Light
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 8,530 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 80° at 14 knots (From the E at ~ 16.1 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: -25°C
Flight Level Dew Point: Not available, probably because the dew point hygrometer was not working.
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Shower(s) (continuous or intermittent precipitation - from cumuliform clouds)
D-value: 52 geopotential meters
Optional Data...
Bearing of Echo Center: 90° (Towards the E)
Distance to Echo Center: 30 nautical miles
Orientation of Ellipse: SSE - NNW
Echo Width or Diameter: 10 nautical miles
Length of Major Axis: 30 nautical miles
Character of Echo: Scattered Area
Intensity of Echo: Weak
Another new one to me, does the Optional Data describe a radar signature?
What I have been posting is the Hurricane Hunters going from St. Croix to home (I think). They send Routine Obs (such as the one above) and they have released a few dropsondes.
I'm on board with that.
Could they form 2 tropical systems.
Yeah, and as you can see it is beginning to pull convection from the east and from Cuba as well. Could get interesting here in the next 12 hours or so
Now, as far as movement goes, current movement is WNW which would put it in the direction of the keys/southeastern gulf.
Computer models and forecasters are still calling for it to turn north, so with so much agreement for it do so, it wouldn't be wise to say it won't. However at the same time, we shouldn't pretend it is turning north towards the northern Bahamas till it actually does so.
My advice is to keep a close watch on this little fella if you live in Central and South Florida. Not because its a threat, but it will determine if above average or below average rain fall coverage will come in the next few days.
The fact is, if the remnant low continues WNW, it will wrap high moisture over Florida, leading to numerous showers and thunderstorms especially with daytime heating towards the western side of the State. But if it does turn north like it is being forecast to. Below normal coverage will temporarily be in place with a light northerly flow.
We shall see.
No, both areas of vort are associated with the same trof of low pressure. A dominant area will eventually take over if Emily is to regenerate.
I agree - this looks like the BAMD model. This LLC is moving WNW toward Fl Keys/S FL. With anticipated hard left turn it could stay over FL for a while and be a major rain maker. One only hopes.
AL 05 2011080518 BEST 0 229N 771W 30 1011 WV
AL 05 2011080518 BEST 0 230N 780W 30 1011 WV
loop
That's the one.
What's next?
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