Remnants of Emily could redevelop; Muifa batters Okinawa; Central U.S. roasts
Tropical Storm Emily degraded into an open tropical wave yesterday afternoon, after Hurricane Hunters could no longer locate a center of circulation at the surface. Through the morning yesterday, the storm appeared to lose most of its strong thunderstorm activity on the north side, and mid-level circulation was broad (tropical cyclones need a tight, coherent circulation to maintain themselves). Soon after the Hurricane Hunters took a pass through the storm, the National Hurricane Center demoted Emily from a tropical storm to a remnant low, while continuing to stress the rainfall threat to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Today it appears the center of the remnants are located just north of eastern Cuba in the southern Bahamas, although thunderstorm activity continues across eastern Cuba. Hispaniola probably saw rain and thunderstorms again early this morning, the strongest of which were on the eastern side of the island. New thunderstorm activity is starting to develop in the southeast Bahamas. Given Wednesday's rain gauge analysis from CPC, Hispaniola probably saw at least an additional 5 inches of rain yesterday.
Environmental conditions remain pretty much the same as yesterday, but are expected to become more favorable for Emily's remnants, and redevelopment of the storm is possible. Circulation from the low to mid-levels is still broad and tilting to the east with height due to the lingering moderate westerly wind shear. However, this shear is expected to dissipate some over the next 24 hours, and signs of this are already present to the west of the remnants. The dry air that has been following the storm since its inception has dissipated, as well.
Figure 1. Satellite imagery of the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily as they move northwest away from Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas.
Forecast for Emily's Remnants
Interestingly, the models have come into better agreement on the forecast for former Emily now that it has lost its surface circulation and degenerated into a tropical wave. The ECMWF, which has come out ahead in this forecasting game so far, is optimistic today that Emily will redevelop. Other global models—GFS, CMC, and FIM—also redevelop the storm. Consensus on timing of redevelopment seems to be when the wave reaches the northern Bahamas in 24 to 48 hours. At 12Z (8am EDT), the high-resolution HWRF model run forecasted a track that was furthest to the west of all the models, scraping eastern Florida as it travels northwest. The most probable track and intensity forecast that I see at this point is north-northwest movement over the next 24 to 36 hours, at which point the system will take a fairly sharp turn to the northeast and out to sea. Without an already established, coherent circulation, it appears unlikely that if Emily is reborn it will intensify into anything more than a moderate tropical storm. However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.
Typhoon Muifa passes to the south of Okinawa, heads into East China Sea
The center of Typhoon Muifa passed to the south of Okinawa earlier this morning (Eastern time) and it continues to batter the islands with high winds and torrential rain. Local radar estimate rainfall rates as high as 80 mm/hour (approx. 3 inches/hour) in the strongest rain bands. Kadena Air Force Base near the city of Okinawa has been reporting sustained winds of 47 mph with gusts up to 72 mph. Muifa is expected to turn northwest today as it enters the East China Sea as a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and then intensify into a category 2 as it passes close to eastern China. This morning, the forecast is that Muifa will probably not make landfall anywhere as a typhoon.
Figure 2. Radar imagery from the Japan Meteorological Agency around 1am JST. Scale is in millimeters. Highest rainfall rates appear to be approximately 3 inches/hour.
South-Central U.S. continues to bake
The extreme heat continues again today after 269 high maximum and 250 high minimum temperature records were set yesterday, 19 and 29 of which were all-time records, respectively. 206 of yesterday's records were 110°F or higher. Yesterday, Reuters was reporting that Texas was one power plant shutdown away from rolling blackouts. The forecast today doesn't look any better. Heat index values up to 125° are forecast in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.
Particularly toasty heat index values from yesterday:
• Mobile, Alabama: 120°
• Arkadelphia, Arkansas: 121°
• Bay St. Louis, Mississippi: 121°
• Memphis, Tennessee: 122°
Figure 3. Heat index forecast from the ECMWF for today. Scale is in degrees Fahrenheit. You can plot model forecasts using Wundermap by choosing the "Model Data" layer.
Angela
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he didn't let her loose, she ripped his arms off and ran away.... :)
You would think so however, that is not the talk of the local NWS.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
921 PM EDT FRI AUG 5 2011
.UPDATE...
THE REMNANT LOW THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH EMILY WAS LOCATED BETWEEN
CENTRAL BAHAMA ISLANDS AND CENTRAL CUBA EARLY THIS EVENING. THE
LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE LOW WILL MOVE
SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE BAHAMA ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND. AHEAD OF THE
WEAK LOW THERE IS SOME DRY AIR IN PLACE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE WHICH IS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WHICH
SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE CWA FOR TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT IS CURRENTLY GOING ON OVER THE WEST
COAST METRO AREAS AND GULF WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA TO SLOWLY
DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND BE GONE AROUND MIDNIGHT.
THIS DRY AIR WILL ALSO ONLY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND PUSH WEST INTO THE EAST COAST METRO
AREAS BEFORE DISSIPATING. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS MORNING OVER THE SOUTHEAST METRO AREAS OF
THE CWA AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE WORKS INTO THIS AREA ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT TO LOW END POPS
FOR THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE GOING DRY.
FOR REST OF THE CWA...THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY OVER THE
INTERIOR SECTIONS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS OVER THE EAST
COAST METRO AREAS FOR TONIGHT.
IF THE LOW STRENGTHENS SOME TONIGHT THEN THE DRY AIR THAT IS
CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA COULD REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THIS
WEEKEND. IF THIS HAPPENS THEN THE POPS MIGHT HAVE TO BE LOWER FOR
THE CWA IN THE EARLY MORNING PACKAGE ON SATURDAY FOR THIS WEEKEND.
NO OTHER CHANGES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.
Nah, suspect it was MRS PH
It should, its supposed to go all the way to Panama South America.
Auroras have been seen this far South before. Rare, but it does happen. In Northern Norway, we could see them almost everynight. Ask Patrap!
You see that low pressure in NE GOM, that is the trough split that could give Ex-Emily a weakness and allow her to head a little further west before curving out...
I remember seeing auroras from Jax one night in the late 80's/early 90's caused by a CME. Wasn't that bright but still just barely visible.
If you ever want to experience their city's hospitality, get a bed and breakfast up the over looking deep cove area.. So beautiful to wake up to...and the people are so nice!
I looked out my front door (which faces north) and I see some lights.
Then I am a lurker too ...
Thanks evryone
Do you have a source because I don't really believe it will get as far south as Panama?
it can happen city lights make em faint need to be in dark urban areas to see it more vividly but depending on how strong you can see em i see almost every jan and feb normaly on the coldest nights of the year very rare during summer unless you are north of 60
Yeah, I see that. That's been an eventual player since day 1. Just wonder why the forecasts aside from that surface map are completely opposite.
...and that's why my yard is gnome-free.
This was from 2004 in Seattle, It would be cool to see them in CFL.
Emily loves you too, and shell be back to annoy you once more in the morning... :)
Emily won't be back before I am.
Goodnight everyone.
No, lurking does not imply knowledge level whatsoever. Ask questions if you want to learn more!
Panama is geographically in Central America, although politically more aligned with Columbia.
spaceweather dot com has a picture showing the extent of the aurora's reach
I'd enjoy going there or Victoria, well worth the ferry ride over. The aquarium is awesome, the botanical gardens simple beautiful, and the eateries are amazing!
lol, good one. I'll be remembering that ;-)
I ain't learned a damn thing in six years, hahaha
Keeper- we are so hazy that I can not even see the stars tonight. Oh well....but they (auroras) might frighten me, I think. I hope all ya'll up further north get a grand show. I really do.
Just google it... I multiple sources that said it would come down as far south as Pennsylvania. I hope they're wrong though as I would love to see one.
uff-da
I thought you were just frightened by fireworks.;^)
Yea it was a pretty big hit. BTW I think I'm the only one from Arizona here LOL!!
You'd be surprised if you knew how many people were "Here" at any given time.
Thanks, DVG. Doesn't look like it will make it this far south if I was looking at the correct thing.
Wow, thanks for that. Looks like a big one.
Post 1742 for the map
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