Remnants of Emily could redevelop; Muifa batters Okinawa; Central U.S. roasts

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT en Agosto 05, 2011

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Tropical Storm Emily degraded into an open tropical wave yesterday afternoon, after Hurricane Hunters could no longer locate a center of circulation at the surface. Through the morning yesterday, the storm appeared to lose most of its strong thunderstorm activity on the north side, and mid-level circulation was broad (tropical cyclones need a tight, coherent circulation to maintain themselves). Soon after the Hurricane Hunters took a pass through the storm, the National Hurricane Center demoted Emily from a tropical storm to a remnant low, while continuing to stress the rainfall threat to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Today it appears the center of the remnants are located just north of eastern Cuba in the southern Bahamas, although thunderstorm activity continues across eastern Cuba. Hispaniola probably saw rain and thunderstorms again early this morning, the strongest of which were on the eastern side of the island. New thunderstorm activity is starting to develop in the southeast Bahamas. Given Wednesday's rain gauge analysis from CPC, Hispaniola probably saw at least an additional 5 inches of rain yesterday.

Environmental conditions remain pretty much the same as yesterday, but are expected to become more favorable for Emily's remnants, and redevelopment of the storm is possible. Circulation from the low to mid-levels is still broad and tilting to the east with height due to the lingering moderate westerly wind shear. However, this shear is expected to dissipate some over the next 24 hours, and signs of this are already present to the west of the remnants. The dry air that has been following the storm since its inception has dissipated, as well.


Figure 1. Satellite imagery of the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily as they move northwest away from Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas.

Forecast for Emily's Remnants
Interestingly, the models have come into better agreement on the forecast for former Emily now that it has lost its surface circulation and degenerated into a tropical wave. The ECMWF, which has come out ahead in this forecasting game so far, is optimistic today that Emily will redevelop. Other global models—GFS, CMC, and FIM—also redevelop the storm. Consensus on timing of redevelopment seems to be when the wave reaches the northern Bahamas in 24 to 48 hours. At 12Z (8am EDT), the high-resolution HWRF model run forecasted a track that was furthest to the west of all the models, scraping eastern Florida as it travels northwest. The most probable track and intensity forecast that I see at this point is north-northwest movement over the next 24 to 36 hours, at which point the system will take a fairly sharp turn to the northeast and out to sea. Without an already established, coherent circulation, it appears unlikely that if Emily is reborn it will intensify into anything more than a moderate tropical storm. However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.

Typhoon Muifa passes to the south of Okinawa, heads into East China Sea

The center of Typhoon Muifa passed to the south of Okinawa earlier this morning (Eastern time) and it continues to batter the islands with high winds and torrential rain. Local radar estimate rainfall rates as high as 80 mm/hour (approx. 3 inches/hour) in the strongest rain bands. Kadena Air Force Base near the city of Okinawa has been reporting sustained winds of 47 mph with gusts up to 72 mph. Muifa is expected to turn northwest today as it enters the East China Sea as a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and then intensify into a category 2 as it passes close to eastern China. This morning, the forecast is that Muifa will probably not make landfall anywhere as a typhoon.


Figure 2. Radar imagery from the Japan Meteorological Agency around 1am JST. Scale is in millimeters. Highest rainfall rates appear to be approximately 3 inches/hour.

South-Central U.S. continues to bake

The extreme heat continues again today after 269 high maximum and 250 high minimum temperature records were set yesterday, 19 and 29 of which were all-time records, respectively. 206 of yesterday's records were 110°F or higher. Yesterday, Reuters was reporting that Texas was one power plant shutdown away from rolling blackouts. The forecast today doesn't look any better. Heat index values up to 125° are forecast in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Particularly toasty heat index values from yesterday:

• Mobile, Alabama: 120°
• Arkadelphia, Arkansas: 121°
• Bay St. Louis, Mississippi: 121°
• Memphis, Tennessee: 122°


Figure 3. Heat index forecast from the ECMWF for today. Scale is in degrees Fahrenheit. You can plot model forecasts using Wundermap by choosing the "Model Data" layer.

Angela

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expect an upgrade back to TS status at 5pm. IMO
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This is TS Emily right now, it should be at least.
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2917. CCkid00
Quoting Skyepony:
Looking at the big picture the dry air diving down through PR & about to overtake Hispaniola, it's a strong driving force to what is giving alot of east to west flow over Florida.


what would prevent those east to west winds from taking Emily over Florida into the Gulf? i know very little about all of this....just like watching in here, but it sure looks to me like the whole thing is going more west than north???
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WHAT.
Vega Alta, PR
Temperature 88.9 °F
Feels Like 103 °F
Member Since: Julio 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
Quoting Hurricanes101:
pressures not very impressive at all
but we are getting wind reports from marsh harbour at 40 MPH sustained
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
pressures not very impressive at all


This is probably because Emily, like Bret, is embedded in an area of higher pressures.
Member Since: Julio 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24449
Quoting Patrap:


Marsh Harbour 80.2 °F 100% 29.92 in SW at 40.3 mph

Bahamas wunderground site Obs
thats TS force winds
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Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:
Marsh Harbor is currently reporting sustained winds at 35.7 mph from the south.

Uhh...
Wind
Speed / Dir 40.3 mph from SSW
Wind Gust 40.3 mph
Member Since: Julio 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
2911. emcf30
Quoting atmoaggie:
Anyone ever seen a living but still ant?

Just sayin'
;-)


True. LOL
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pressures not very impressive at all
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2909. Patrap


Marsh Harbour 80.2 °F 100% 29.92 in SW at 40.3 mph

Bahamas wunderground site Obs
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convection from emily seems to be moving further west towards south florida only 50 Miles from the palm beach county
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Quoting emcf30:

now thats a crazy sight. I used to live near Sunnyland Beach near Sebastian Inlet. there were times of the year the crabs would cover A1A on the move.


Usually mating season--and those claws can puncture a tire! The massacre on SR 76 in Stuart was incredible.
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Marsh Harbor is currently reporting sustained winds at 35.7 mph from the south.
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Quoting SouthDadeFish:
If the circulation was where we think it is, just SE of Grand Bahama, you should have a North wind there, on the wind side of the circulation.


Sorry, No you would not.....at center at 25.5 and 78.5 you would have an E or SE wind at the tip of west grand bahama not a brisk N wind. .
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2904. beell
Recon flying along at the 783mb level (around 7,300ft). If they continue to the east we should see a wind shift to the S or SE as they get to the other side of troughemily.
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Weird little loop. I'm liking it without the satellite image overlay right now.

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Quoting emcf30:


Do you have any ants on the move?
Anyone ever seen a living but still ant?

Just sayin'
;-)
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2901. Patrap
18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Emily
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)





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2900. emcf30
Quoting Landfall2004:


Had landcrabs mid-week--but I think they got rained out of their holes.

now thats a crazy sight. I used to live near Sunnyland Beach near Sebastian Inlet. there were times of the year the crabs would cover A1A on the move.
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SSD still has the low on the N tip of Andros.
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2898. CCkid00
with the east to west flow that the RGB loop is showing, over Florida, what is preventing this from crossing over Florida into the Gulf?
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2897. JRRP


GFS african wave
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2896. P451
*Low position as of 12Z






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2895. Grothar
Quoting emcf30:


Do you have any ants on the move?


We don't have ants here. Crickets haven't cricketed either.
Member Since: Julio 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26802
2884. IceCoast 2:49 PM EDT on August 06, 2011

Thanks and cool. The Hunters flew straight across the Gulf and Florida to the system from Keesler.
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2893. Patrap
wunderground site,Kadena Air Base,Okinawa, Japan
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2892. Grothar
OK, which way is it going?


Link
Member Since: Julio 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26802
Quoting NavarreMark:
Recons may be having trouble finding the center.


They just got there. No trouble find anything yet.
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
yes it is between grand bahama island and andros and looks to be drifting


BINGO
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2889. Patrap
AF HH Tail #307 making her run into Emily
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Found a decent tabular source for Kadena AFB:

ROND

It really is 42 inches from Muifa.
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Quoting emcf30:


Do you have any ants on the move?


Had landcrabs mid-week--but I think they got rained out of their holes.
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Just checking in. Still maybe a brush in south Florida before heading out to sea?
Member Since: Septiembre 16, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 193
I'll post Recon Graphics.
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Quoting barotropic:


Cant be...Have a straight N wind up at 26.5 tip of grand bahama. str
If the circulation was where we think it is, just SE of Grand Bahama, you should have a North wind there, on the wind side of the circulation.
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2882. emcf30
Quoting Grothar:
Ok, have a good laugh at this one. I haven't seen or heard a bird in more than 2 hours. The last ones I saw this morning were all flying North.


Do you have any ants on the move?
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Quoting washingaway:
The developing center is showing up on Miami radar.
yes it is between grand bahama island and andros and looks to be drifting
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
thats exactly where i see the LLC


Cant be...Have a straight N wind up at 26.5 tip of grand bahama. str
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2879. Patrap
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2878. Grothar
Quoting Patrap:


IS the Governor Visiting this afternoon ?

,,that could be da reason,maybe,,dunno.



LOL
Member Since: Julio 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26802
Quoting Grothar:


Ah! That is where they all are. Save them, we may have to serve some later.


I don't think there will be enough to go around!
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2876. Grothar
Quoting Landfall2004:

The crows are all over my yard!


Ah! That is where they all are. Save them, we may have to serve some later.
Member Since: Julio 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26802
The developing center is showing up on Miami radar.
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Quoting extreme236:
Might be the most organized Emily has ever been, structure wise.
thats what the waters off the florida and bahaman coasts do to tropical systems
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Quoting P451:
Low position is as of 12Z





Curious to see if they find any good winds because....there don't appear to be any given surface obs.



N Wind at 16...west tip of grand bahama. Thats the west side of the circulation.
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2872. Levi32
There is still a northeasterly upper flow coming over ex-Emily, which is shearing her. Notice that the thunderstorms are mostly south of the center. There is also dry air to the north that will be an issue.
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so far recon has had NW and N winds
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I think we may be looking at a TD now. Welcome back to Earth Emily, did you enjoy it up in hurricane heaven? I hope you got the chance to meet the nice and wonderful Miss Katrina.
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2869. P451
Low position is as of 12Z





Curious to see if they find any good winds because....there don't appear to be any given surface obs.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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