Remnants of Emily could redevelop; Muifa batters Okinawa; Central U.S. roasts
Tropical Storm Emily degraded into an open tropical wave yesterday afternoon, after Hurricane Hunters could no longer locate a center of circulation at the surface. Through the morning yesterday, the storm appeared to lose most of its strong thunderstorm activity on the north side, and mid-level circulation was broad (tropical cyclones need a tight, coherent circulation to maintain themselves). Soon after the Hurricane Hunters took a pass through the storm, the National Hurricane Center demoted Emily from a tropical storm to a remnant low, while continuing to stress the rainfall threat to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Today it appears the center of the remnants are located just north of eastern Cuba in the southern Bahamas, although thunderstorm activity continues across eastern Cuba. Hispaniola probably saw rain and thunderstorms again early this morning, the strongest of which were on the eastern side of the island. New thunderstorm activity is starting to develop in the southeast Bahamas. Given Wednesday's rain gauge analysis from CPC, Hispaniola probably saw at least an additional 5 inches of rain yesterday.
Environmental conditions remain pretty much the same as yesterday, but are expected to become more favorable for Emily's remnants, and redevelopment of the storm is possible. Circulation from the low to mid-levels is still broad and tilting to the east with height due to the lingering moderate westerly wind shear. However, this shear is expected to dissipate some over the next 24 hours, and signs of this are already present to the west of the remnants. The dry air that has been following the storm since its inception has dissipated, as well.
Figure 1. Satellite imagery of the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily as they move northwest away from Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas.
Forecast for Emily's Remnants
Interestingly, the models have come into better agreement on the forecast for former Emily now that it has lost its surface circulation and degenerated into a tropical wave. The ECMWF, which has come out ahead in this forecasting game so far, is optimistic today that Emily will redevelop. Other global models—GFS, CMC, and FIM—also redevelop the storm. Consensus on timing of redevelopment seems to be when the wave reaches the northern Bahamas in 24 to 48 hours. At 12Z (8am EDT), the high-resolution HWRF model run forecasted a track that was furthest to the west of all the models, scraping eastern Florida as it travels northwest. The most probable track and intensity forecast that I see at this point is north-northwest movement over the next 24 to 36 hours, at which point the system will take a fairly sharp turn to the northeast and out to sea. Without an already established, coherent circulation, it appears unlikely that if Emily is reborn it will intensify into anything more than a moderate tropical storm. However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.
Typhoon Muifa passes to the south of Okinawa, heads into East China Sea
The center of Typhoon Muifa passed to the south of Okinawa earlier this morning (Eastern time) and it continues to batter the islands with high winds and torrential rain. Local radar estimate rainfall rates as high as 80 mm/hour (approx. 3 inches/hour) in the strongest rain bands. Kadena Air Force Base near the city of Okinawa has been reporting sustained winds of 47 mph with gusts up to 72 mph. Muifa is expected to turn northwest today as it enters the East China Sea as a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and then intensify into a category 2 as it passes close to eastern China. This morning, the forecast is that Muifa will probably not make landfall anywhere as a typhoon.
Figure 2. Radar imagery from the Japan Meteorological Agency around 1am JST. Scale is in millimeters. Highest rainfall rates appear to be approximately 3 inches/hour.
South-Central U.S. continues to bake
The extreme heat continues again today after 269 high maximum and 250 high minimum temperature records were set yesterday, 19 and 29 of which were all-time records, respectively. 206 of yesterday's records were 110°F or higher. Yesterday, Reuters was reporting that Texas was one power plant shutdown away from rolling blackouts. The forecast today doesn't look any better. Heat index values up to 125° are forecast in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.
Particularly toasty heat index values from yesterday:
• Mobile, Alabama: 120°
• Arkadelphia, Arkansas: 121°
• Bay St. Louis, Mississippi: 121°
• Memphis, Tennessee: 122°
Figure 3. Heat index forecast from the ECMWF for today. Scale is in degrees Fahrenheit. You can plot model forecasts using Wundermap by choosing the "Model Data" layer.
Angela
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She is currently on the path of the NHC's last track.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
308 PM CDT FRI AUG 5 2011
ACADIANA REALLY LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR
TWO THROUGH THE WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR WEST THE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MOVES. DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE...ONLY
CARRYING 20 PERCENT POPS FOR ACADIANA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
OTHERWISE...NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE A DRY AND HOT PERIOD.
YES I seem to remember that Fay jumped over western Cuba?
She is currently where the NHC placed her from the first track. She did not get there on the exact track they had, but place/time is pretty close.
#2 - They're never really most sincerely dead.
As coroner, I must concur, that she's ... to be, if she ...
Red smoke, flash of green ...
"screaming munchkins"
Looks like West We Go, for the remnants of the Witch of the East.
La Nina* :P
Nothing I can see, aside from the fact that we probably won't see the explicit mention of a tropical depression.
Previous one
Very true, That one looks like an F1- low end F2 to me! BTW what do you make of the wsw/sw winds we've been getting at various stations on the Island today, I see a LL swirl just ENE of the sister Islands, the one of many I think I'm seeing in ex-Emily, which I guess might soon be Emily again!
Hmm. Interesting. Not sure what to make of that, honestly. Do you perhaps wish to opine?
TROPICAL STORM EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052011
200 PM PDT FRI AUG 05 2011
CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD
PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY DEGENERATE. A BLEND OF THE
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE INTENSITY ESTIMATION AND BOTH ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB IS USED TO SUPPORT LOWERING THE INITIAL INTENSITY
TO 50 KT. FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE SYSTEM BECOMING A REMNANT LOW BY SUNDAY
IN AGREEMENT WITH THE IVCN INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL. THROUGH THE
REMAINING PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY 72 HOURS...BUT THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER.
Very low to no chance.
GRRRRRR!
JMA 5-day track map.
Ironic lol
But it wouldn't make sense for them to decrease the probabilities so radically. Based on satellite imagery (complimented by CIMSS vorticity analysis), a weak low-level swirl appears to be amidst the convection.
No doubt about it.
I don't understand it either, but I have seen in the past if that graphic is "empty", pretty much game over, at least for 48 hours. Could be wrong, have been already today.
typhoonfury Morning all! Winds howling here in Naha, sustained hourly winds of 52kts have been, peak gust to 74kts. Think my flt will be cancelled!
17 minutes ago
via Twitter
Why are you suddenly writing her off?
But which storm "killed" more?
Miami radar has me rethinking.
It is way too early to get hung up on the specifics of the long-range synoptic pattern, but yes. Unless hypothetical Franklin strengthens early, he is not going to quickly recuve.
ABNT20 KNHC 052340
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI AUG 5 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SATELLITE IMAGES...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR DATA FROM CUBA
INDICATE THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OF FORMER TROPICAL STORM
EMILY HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND THE NORTH-CENTRAL COAST OF CUBA. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED NEAR
THE SURFACE CENTER...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF
REGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE LOW ON
SATURDAY...IF NECESSARY. INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI AUG 5 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SATELLITE IMAGES...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR DATA FROM CUBA
INDICATE THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OF FORMER TROPICAL STORM
EMILY HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND THE NORTH-CENTRAL COAST OF CUBA. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED NEAR
THE SURFACE CENTER...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF
REGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE LOW ON
SATURDAY...IF NECESSARY. INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Guess that graphic does not mean much, or is a mistake of some sort.
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