High wind shear disrupts Emily as it approaches Hispaniola
In defiance to its forecast, Tropical Storm Emily continues to move due west this morning, and we wonder just how far west it will get before turning toward Hispaniola. Recent Hurricane Hunter missions have shown that Emily is still very poorly organized, and although the center of circulation is plainly obvious on satellite imagery, it's only because it is so displaced from the thunderstorm activity. Wind shear around the storm is just high enough, around 20 knots out of the west, to push the upper levels of circulation and thunderstorm activity to the east, exposing the surface low. In order for tropical cyclones to intensify (or, continue to exist at all), they need to be vertically stacked and standing straight up in the atmosphere. Right now, Emily is tilting to the east. This is bad news for the organization of the storm, and something that Emily will have to work hard at recovering from. In addition to the wind shear, dry air continues to wrap around the north and west of the storm. This isn't as critical as unfavorable wind shear, but it's not helping to create new thunderstorm activity. The strongest winds of 50 mph were found to the north and east of the center this morning, and Emily is not expected to intensify before making landfall in Hispaniola, which is forecast for tonight. The HWRF is forecasting the strongest precipitation to fall on the northeast side of the storm as is passes over Hispaniola. This is relatively good news for Haiti, but the country could still receive up to 5 inches of rain, and since the models have been trending the track west over the past couple of runs, it's something to watch closely. No matter the scenario, Emily is expected to produce heavy rains, flash flooding, and mudslides in Haiti and the Dominican Republic, which are all to common on the mountainous island.
Figure 1. Forecast precipitation accumulation from the HWRF high resolution model's 6Z (2am EDT) run. The color contour scale is in inches. The coastlines are a thin, red line. The Dominican Republic is expected to get the most rain out of Emily. You can view the HWRF model runs on Wundermap.
Forecast for Tropical Storm Emily
The future of Emily remains uncertain, and even the National Hurricane Center is using the "if" word when forecasting Emily's track after crossing Hispaniola. "If" it makes it north of Hispaniola. Over the past couple of runs, the models have been trending their forecast tracks back to the west, most likely because Emily has remained on a westward track longer than expected. This is expected—the longer Emily remains shallow and unorganized, the longer it will track west. It will need to build up taller in the atmosphere to be influenced by the steering winds that can push it north. Given its westward track, today's models are likely closer to reality than what we've seen in the past couple of days. This morning, the CMC, UKMET, and HWRF models send Emily on a northwest track to Florida. This is a change from the past couple of days for the HWRF, but the CMC and UKMET have consistently been the western boundary of model consensus. THE GFDL has also taken a huge swing to the west, and now suggests it will come very close to a southeast Florida landfall. The ECMWF and GFS continue to forecast that Emily will take a harder turn north through the Bahamas, not reaching the Florida coast.
Figure 2. Satellite image of Tropical Storm Emily at 11:15am EDT. The surface circulation is visible to the west of the strongest thunderstorm activity.
Consensus of the models falls between the HWRF/GFDL solution and the ECMWF/GFS solution, and the National Hurricane Center continues to use the consensus for the official track forecast, which calls for Emily to take a turn to the northwest and make landfall in Hispaniola this afternoon, after which continuing northwest until Saturday morning when it's between the island of Grand Bahama and West Palm Beach, Florida. At this point, they expect the storm to jog north and then northeast.
Emily's intensity forecast continues highly dependent on the track it takes. Assuming it can survive the wrath of Hispaniola, Emily will enter slightly more favorable environmental conditions to the north of the islands. This is what the Hurricane Center is forecasting, although they remain cautious. There is a very good chance that, if Emily does turn northwest today, it will not be able to reorganize after crossing Hispaniola. If it does maintain organization, Emily could reach hurricane strength as it moves northeast out to the open Atlantic. The other scenario at this point is that the storm keeps moving west, which will be detrimental to its orgnization. The models that track Emily into the far eastern Gulf of Mexico don't suggest any reintensification—the CMC fizzles the system below tropical storm strength quickly, probably because of the long track over Cuba it would have to take. In any case, Emily remains a threat most certainly to Hispaniola, and potentially to Florida.
I'm planning a quick update later this afternoon/evening for an update on new model runs, and potential Hispaniola landfall.
Angela
Reader Comments
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Shes pissed off, cuase the NHC rejected her from being retired after achieving category 5 status, so she has decided to defy all forecasts by the NHC, and is aimed for Miami(where the NHC is).
This storm really hates the NHC...
That was supposed to be animated!
Your guess is as good as mine, Kman explained it in an earlier post to me , you might want to check it out!
So what is your take on Emily? Do you think she has a method to her madness to impact south flo.?
Yes, slightly different initial conditions produce different results. To help account for this Ensemble Models were developed for global models, which start with different initial conditions. They have been working on HWRF Ensembles, they are still in the research phase.
The pressure/wind centers could be jumping around a little bit, which usually happens in weak systems when new convection suddenly flares up. The center gets pretty excited at the sight of thunderstorms nearby.
It's not really the NHC's fault that she wasn't retired, it's the WMO and that Mexico didn't request it.
But I don't think anybody told Emily that... lol
I have not checked but right now the models do not mean a lot.
Gotta run for dinner. Back later.
showing a S. FL landfall.
what are the wind speeds and pressure?
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS
LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR
LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.6 WEST. EMILY HAS MOVED LITTLE
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A WESTWARD
MOTION OF ABOUT 14 MPH...22 KM/H IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI EARLY THURSDAY AND MOVE
OVER EXTREME EASTERN CUBA THURSDAY NIGHT.
Looks to be an interesting day for us tomorrow. I was hoping for a little more land interaction. NHC now says SOME weakening instead of we'll see if Emily survives.
I learned something about Emily early on: she won't be told what to do.
LOL, You obviously haven't met me as once I decide something it is usually done before anyone gets the chance to try to change it. But, you're right that at least she's putting her clothes back on! *G*
I'm also not the only person that been thinking eastern Florida, Levi and countless others have also shared the thinking. Still a while to go though, a lot can change between today and 60-72 hours.
Oh, and the 0z model plots should be out in 30 minutes or so.
Don't think so... I mean how many more years of experience do they have than we do lol? Maybe the ridge continues to build to the W, it certainly looks like the trough is starting to lift out.
I'm lost scratching my head and confused like most. I'll say one thing about Emily she's a real woman( always remember there is 2 things about a woman and man know neither one)Note: It's just a quote I love women and personally think they're smarter and tougher than most men!!!
Cat 5 to Mobile
A hit or impact on south Florida is much more within the realm of possibility now that Emily has tracked farther west due to her weakening last night. It will be close. Not really expecting the possibility for a track up the southwest coast of Florida or anything like that. The line is very thin and this should either be a scraping landfall on southeast Florida or a pass just off the coast.
Reminds me of Cher in Burlesque: "You haven't seen the last of meeeeeee... you haven't seen the last of me."
i.e. no real change....
Never hurts to let folks know that there's a decent possibility of tropical weather affecting us.
It has moved 14 miles in 5 hours. That's 3 miles per hour on average, which is pretty close to stalled, but not quite. Satellite definitely indicates some movement.
I agree. Seems many don't quite understand exactly what a tropical cyclone is capable of. For some reason there seems to be this mentality that they cant turn quick or make a hard right etc. Fact is, they can and often do turn on a dime and often times you cant see it coming in sat frames prior. Likewise, with forward motion they can stop on a dime. I personally don't doubt for a minute that this storm will turn. The weakness is more than sufficient. And its not going to fill for some time. The models have been very consistent about the ridge building back east, but not enough to close the weakness off. It seems that the ridge should build furthest east in about 72 hours, then retreats west again. Unless Emily opens up (wave), it should respond to the weakness moving poleward somewhere between the se tip of Florida and the eastern edge of the northern bahamas.
On that image the wind at the top is 900 mb. Max surface is 78 kt.
I also noticed the language. Emily WILL MOVE across.... no more "IF"s. So they must feel confidant that she feels the through like Levi has indicated in recent posts.
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