Invest 91L reorganizing; The heat is on (again)
Invest 91L, which is located near 14°N, 57°W, is showing signs of reorganization after a pretty rough weekend. On Saturday, the wave looked ripe to develop with organized convection and the hint of a surface circulation. On Sunday a Hurricane Hunter and NOAA G9 flew into the system only to find it disorganized and negatively influenced by the burst of convection that sprouted on its western edge. Since then, low-level circulation has at least strengthened, if not consolidated, and residents of the Lesser Antilles should be prepared for tropical storm advisories to be posted on short notice. Satellite loops show decent thunderstorm activity and some mid-level circulation, and continued bursts of thunderstorms to the southwest of the invest region. The wave is surrounded by moderately strong wind shear (30-40 knots) on both the north and the south sides, which could delay development. Also, a large mass of dry, Saharan air continues to linger to 91L's north. In a mission this morning, Hurricane Hunters found winds close to tropical storm strength, but no signs of a closed surface circulation—just plenty of winds from the east or southeast. The next mission is scheduled for 2pm EDT, and they will continue every six hours if the system remains a threat.
Figure 1. Visible satellite of Invest 91L at 10:30am EDT as it moves west toward the Lesser Antilles.
Forecast For 91L
Development will probably occur in the next day or two, and the National Hurricane Center is giving the wave a 90% chance in the next 48 hours. The question now is where will it go, and how long will it remain a tropical cyclone. Models are split today, although still leaning toward an Atlantic recurving solution. In the camp of a Gulf of Mexico track are the CMC and the UKMET models. The GFS and the ECMWF are still in favor of the system tracking northwest toward Florida (and coming close) before taking a turn to the northeast. The NOGAPS model is resolving a Florida landfall in this morning's run, and the HWRF hints that it might like that solution, as well, at the end of its run. The GFDL remains conservative and forecasts that the system will turn north and northeast well before making any connection with the U.S. coast. It is notable that although there is still much disagreement on where this system will go, the models have been trending west in their tracks over the past few days. However, it is extremely difficult to nail down a track before a cyclone has even developed. Something we know for sure is that 91L is a threat to the Lesser Antilles and the Caribbean islands including Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the Bahamas.
In terms of intensity, both the GFDL and the HWRF are thinking this will eventually get to hurricane strength once it develops, although neither are forecasting it to become stronger than a category 1. SHIPS (which tracks 91L into the far eastern Gulf of Mexico) brings the system up to a category 1 hurricane, and the LGEM does as well, but is slower in its intensification. General consensus this morning is that 91L will max out somewhere between a moderate tropical cyclone and a moderate category 1 hurricane. Again, this is something that is difficult to predict before development itself occurs.
The Heat Is On (Again)
Someone turned the furnace on again in the central U.S., although many would argue that it was never actually turned off after the last heat wave. Heat advisories have been issued from southern Louisiana to North Dakota. Temperatures are expected to climb to 115°F in the central Plains through Wednesday, and heat index values will soar again. Oklahoma has now seen over a month of high temperatures hitting at least 100°. Some reprieve could come later this week.
Figure 2. Weather advisories issued by the National Weather Service. Heat-related advisories are pink.
Angela
Reader Comments
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The longer this thing stays weak, the more west its gonna go... and if it doesn't do something pretty quick, once it gets to the Eastern Car., then all bets are off till it gets into the Western car., as a general rule, at least... Sound about right??
Recon found Tropical Storm Emily. We had a renumber.
lol...
There would be so many renumbers and deletes the servers would explode at NOAA HQ.
Do u mute him, and read da closed caption instead?
Wonderful scene. They gave her a huge standing ovation. Really something special!
I thought that too, but with it being at 100% for almost 48hrs you would've figure they had that sorted out already. Would of thought we'd get a special advisory, but Emily will rise at 8 it appears.
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxlo op.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12
The SE is training up storms, see last frame to try to weaken our ridge, watch as each comer goes poof.
Nothing rapid.
no
That one isn't TWC's fault though. The only people calling this thing Emily is us and ATCF. Not even the NHC is calling it Emily yet. Once the NHC issues its first advisory, then every other weather website and media website will call it Emily.
In the short term this will go further West than the last run of the models IMO. To answer your question I would need to look at the forecast steering 3 days down the road and have not done that yet. An East coast trough is supposed tp pick it up but the delay in it being classified and the more Westerly track could mean the trough either totally or partially misses it.
At the moment I dont see it as a NW Caribbean threat for our area but will post more later on this when I have a chance to look at sone data and forecasts.
'Bout time.
: )
yet but it is heading in too hot water and i mean hot!
That's funny. Some people say it always moves east.
Excerpt:
THE MODELS ARE ALSO STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE A POTENTIAL TROPICAL
SYSTEM ORIGINATING FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF
55-60W LONGITUDE. OPERATIONAL MODEL TRACKS RANGE FROM THE CNTRL
GULF IN THE 00Z UKMET TO E OF THE FL PENINSULA IN THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF. SLIGHT WWD TREND OF THE GFS OVER THE PAST 12 HRS AND
EWD ADJUSTMENT IN THE 12Z UKMET OFFER POTENTIAL FOR SOME
CONVERGENCE IN SOLNS BUT THE 12Z ECMWF IS QUITE SUPPRESSED WITH
MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT. 17Z NHC/HPC COORDINATION YIELDS A TRACK JUST
TO THE E OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... A REASONABLE COMPROMISE
BETWEEN CONTINUITY AND SOME RECENT MODEL FCSTS. CONSULT THE
LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR FURTHER INFO REGARDING
THIS FEATURE.
Coordinates: 14.9667N 61.1W
Acft. Static Air Press: 976.5 mb (~ 28.84 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 263 meters (~ 863 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1006.4 mb (~ 29.72 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 200° at 23 knots (From the SSW at ~ 26.4 mph)
Air Temp: 23.0°C (~ 73.4°F)
Dew Pt: 20.9°C (~ 69.6°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 24 knots (~ 27.6 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 36 knots (~ 41.4 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 22 mm/hr (~ 0.87 in/hr)
Lowest pressure on recent pass was 1006, the same as the passes 2-3 hrs ago
Lol, I'm watching that loop as this innocent little blob comes in from the NW and BAM it transforms into this monster T storm complex.
Unflagged
Thanks Kman - good to see you back.
if they make it a 50mph storm that will be a good start
guess will have the 8pm two for the next update.
Ehh, rain rate is a little high though. Earlier today we actually saw a few unflagged 60+ mph winds, but they were in rain rates of like 1.6 in/hr.
Press, you weren't supposed to tell anyone...LOL !!
What program is that you are using?
91l to storm 05
i agree...
Norcross is great. Haven't seen Dr. Rick Knabb that long but i'm pretty confident in him as well.
This
Click on "Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15)"
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