Invest 91L reorganizing; The heat is on (again)
Invest 91L, which is located near 14°N, 57°W, is showing signs of reorganization after a pretty rough weekend. On Saturday, the wave looked ripe to develop with organized convection and the hint of a surface circulation. On Sunday a Hurricane Hunter and NOAA G9 flew into the system only to find it disorganized and negatively influenced by the burst of convection that sprouted on its western edge. Since then, low-level circulation has at least strengthened, if not consolidated, and residents of the Lesser Antilles should be prepared for tropical storm advisories to be posted on short notice. Satellite loops show decent thunderstorm activity and some mid-level circulation, and continued bursts of thunderstorms to the southwest of the invest region. The wave is surrounded by moderately strong wind shear (30-40 knots) on both the north and the south sides, which could delay development. Also, a large mass of dry, Saharan air continues to linger to 91L's north. In a mission this morning, Hurricane Hunters found winds close to tropical storm strength, but no signs of a closed surface circulation—just plenty of winds from the east or southeast. The next mission is scheduled for 2pm EDT, and they will continue every six hours if the system remains a threat.
Figure 1. Visible satellite of Invest 91L at 10:30am EDT as it moves west toward the Lesser Antilles.
Forecast For 91L
Development will probably occur in the next day or two, and the National Hurricane Center is giving the wave a 90% chance in the next 48 hours. The question now is where will it go, and how long will it remain a tropical cyclone. Models are split today, although still leaning toward an Atlantic recurving solution. In the camp of a Gulf of Mexico track are the CMC and the UKMET models. The GFS and the ECMWF are still in favor of the system tracking northwest toward Florida (and coming close) before taking a turn to the northeast. The NOGAPS model is resolving a Florida landfall in this morning's run, and the HWRF hints that it might like that solution, as well, at the end of its run. The GFDL remains conservative and forecasts that the system will turn north and northeast well before making any connection with the U.S. coast. It is notable that although there is still much disagreement on where this system will go, the models have been trending west in their tracks over the past few days. However, it is extremely difficult to nail down a track before a cyclone has even developed. Something we know for sure is that 91L is a threat to the Lesser Antilles and the Caribbean islands including Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the Bahamas.
In terms of intensity, both the GFDL and the HWRF are thinking this will eventually get to hurricane strength once it develops, although neither are forecasting it to become stronger than a category 1. SHIPS (which tracks 91L into the far eastern Gulf of Mexico) brings the system up to a category 1 hurricane, and the LGEM does as well, but is slower in its intensification. General consensus this morning is that 91L will max out somewhere between a moderate tropical cyclone and a moderate category 1 hurricane. Again, this is something that is difficult to predict before development itself occurs.
The Heat Is On (Again)
Someone turned the furnace on again in the central U.S., although many would argue that it was never actually turned off after the last heat wave. Heat advisories have been issued from southern Louisiana to North Dakota. Temperatures are expected to climb to 115°F in the central Plains through Wednesday, and heat index values will soar again. Oklahoma has now seen over a month of high temperatures hitting at least 100°. Some reprieve could come later this week.
Figure 2. Weather advisories issued by the National Weather Service. Heat-related advisories are pink.
Angela
Reader Comments
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you need too larn too look it up on your own lol
here the page
Link
True enough. Would not have bet you 50 cents on that area this morning!
Just ignore. And don't quote.
TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 70
A. 02/0600Z,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0605A CYCLONE
C. 02/0430Z
D. 15.4N 60.0W
E. 02/0530Z TO 01/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,0000 FT
Basically, one every 6 hours, lol.
Thanks, Taz.
Glad you are here Bob!
No, you just need several people to do it at the same time, so the people that are posting irrelevant posts during periods when others are looking for credible information, are removed quickly and decisively. Does that answer the question? Would you like to join in?
Far enough South of P.R where you will not get a direct hit. 40mph to 45mph winds with some higher gusts in the higher elevations. Flash Flooding, very squally weather. Tues. night/Weds time frame.
Yesterday morning I thought we would see Emily by the end of the day. This morning I said no..LOL
Not necessarily. Mid-level centers appear and disappear quickly. The spin that we saw for the last three days (associated with convection) was mostly mid-level. It was a rather strong mid-level feature, but it just couldn't compete forever with the surface features.
The 00Z is the end of the current flight, next one at 2:00 AM EDT
XXL/TS/E/CX
MARK
15.03N/61.08W
hey gamma...OMG...the blog is unreal tonight
Hey Bob! Hope all is well.
Huh?
Do you still think this will affect Florida?
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