Invest 91L reorganizing; The heat is on (again)
Invest 91L, which is located near 14°N, 57°W, is showing signs of reorganization after a pretty rough weekend. On Saturday, the wave looked ripe to develop with organized convection and the hint of a surface circulation. On Sunday a Hurricane Hunter and NOAA G9 flew into the system only to find it disorganized and negatively influenced by the burst of convection that sprouted on its western edge. Since then, low-level circulation has at least strengthened, if not consolidated, and residents of the Lesser Antilles should be prepared for tropical storm advisories to be posted on short notice. Satellite loops show decent thunderstorm activity and some mid-level circulation, and continued bursts of thunderstorms to the southwest of the invest region. The wave is surrounded by moderately strong wind shear (30-40 knots) on both the north and the south sides, which could delay development. Also, a large mass of dry, Saharan air continues to linger to 91L's north. In a mission this morning, Hurricane Hunters found winds close to tropical storm strength, but no signs of a closed surface circulation—just plenty of winds from the east or southeast. The next mission is scheduled for 2pm EDT, and they will continue every six hours if the system remains a threat.
Figure 1. Visible satellite of Invest 91L at 10:30am EDT as it moves west toward the Lesser Antilles.
Forecast For 91L
Development will probably occur in the next day or two, and the National Hurricane Center is giving the wave a 90% chance in the next 48 hours. The question now is where will it go, and how long will it remain a tropical cyclone. Models are split today, although still leaning toward an Atlantic recurving solution. In the camp of a Gulf of Mexico track are the CMC and the UKMET models. The GFS and the ECMWF are still in favor of the system tracking northwest toward Florida (and coming close) before taking a turn to the northeast. The NOGAPS model is resolving a Florida landfall in this morning's run, and the HWRF hints that it might like that solution, as well, at the end of its run. The GFDL remains conservative and forecasts that the system will turn north and northeast well before making any connection with the U.S. coast. It is notable that although there is still much disagreement on where this system will go, the models have been trending west in their tracks over the past few days. However, it is extremely difficult to nail down a track before a cyclone has even developed. Something we know for sure is that 91L is a threat to the Lesser Antilles and the Caribbean islands including Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the Bahamas.
In terms of intensity, both the GFDL and the HWRF are thinking this will eventually get to hurricane strength once it develops, although neither are forecasting it to become stronger than a category 1. SHIPS (which tracks 91L into the far eastern Gulf of Mexico) brings the system up to a category 1 hurricane, and the LGEM does as well, but is slower in its intensification. General consensus this morning is that 91L will max out somewhere between a moderate tropical cyclone and a moderate category 1 hurricane. Again, this is something that is difficult to predict before development itself occurs.
The Heat Is On (Again)
Someone turned the furnace on again in the central U.S., although many would argue that it was never actually turned off after the last heat wave. Heat advisories have been issued from southern Louisiana to North Dakota. Temperatures are expected to climb to 115°F in the central Plains through Wednesday, and heat index values will soar again. Oklahoma has now seen over a month of high temperatures hitting at least 100°. Some reprieve could come later this week.
Figure 2. Weather advisories issued by the National Weather Service. Heat-related advisories are pink.
Angela
Reader Comments
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it is gonna pull off around bermuda giving a false sense of security and then really quick flatten out and back up back to the west and cause a blocking ridge...idk why it is in my head...even drempt it last night...saw the whole map lol
15.5 N ; 60.5 W
im gonna lurk for A WHILE, my brain is seriously hurting, 91L is just very scattered right now, it needs to get rid of the MLC that it is so focused on, and blow up convection near it's actual center...
Its confusing,and irresponsible for bloggers to do it here."
I agree wholeheartedly... with an exception.
I think that when one is discussing storms that have occurred in the past, eg Alex, using 'preAlex' is valid because it is less confusing than using either an AL# or a TD#.
The NHC does something similar. Once a TropicalStorm is Named, the name is kept through a drop to depression status: eg TS.Alex became TD.Alex then TS.Alex again.
I don't think the NHC would object to referring to a stage in Don's life cycle as "preDon" or "exDon"
anyway, Recon heading straight for the LLC
hey dont look at me am this a blog poster here
Yea, troughs this time of year don't come barelling down, so I don't know what the hell the models are seeing. If anything it would be like a Rita track where it formed in the Bahamas and barreled west into central gulf
If you joined yesterday, how do you know about tropicalamanda?
The end point still looks to be in the eastern GOM.
Unless it gets just enough convection to feel the trough and get sucked a little north toward it before it pushes it back west...if that happens, anywhere from FL to NC could take a slap...
Where are you at??? I'm in North Richland Hills and it's 106.2 F
2.5? This is getting silly, 91L clearly lacks organisation but in terms of winds would be Emily.
Hopefully it is in the soon to be posted FIX file, interested to see how that was derived. I don't get it either.
And 91L doesn't look organized to me on satellite.
It has the makings of a bigeeee.
imho.
I am guessing major hurricane...probably a cat 5, in the GOM.
Is that allowed here?
strike anywhere between New Orleans and Destin Florida
BWAHAHAHAHA...OH SNAP! Mt Dew just hit my puter screen....roflmbo
Yep, for sure the west circulation is fast becoming the main one. Waiting for recon to get back up there.
Not nearly that far west.
@wunderground
Weather Underground
Aug 1st, 1861: First weather forecast EVER! http://wxug.us/dhdq
Honestly it looks the most organized it has in a while. You can see the mlc disappearing into the outflow shear mix like dust in the wind and convection developing in bands to the east of the llc that was racing ahead earlier. It's going from looking like a pure mess to just a sheared off dry air infused tropical storm/depression. ((ie less of a mess but still very messy))
Maybe he waited a while before making the account?
1008.2 mb
Never mentioned the "past" in my post.
I was specific as to active Invest and such,,not the past,
RE-peat, not the past.
Anybody notice this? Any of you experts care to make comparisons? 1900 Storm vs. 91L?
Link
57 knots
(~ 65.5 mph)
I close my eyes
Only for a moment and the moment's gone
All my dreams
Pass before my eyes a curiosity
Dust in the wind
All they are is dust in the wind
Just had to do it...lol
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