Los Conchas Fire Jun 26 (
gilg72)
This fire just started today Jun 26. It is SW of Los Alamos and only a few miles away. I don't know the cause at this time.
These photos as viewed from the Espanola NM area.
Voluntary evacuations in all of Los Alamos County per last report.
Dust devils the size of tornadoes (
darnold)
Dozens of massive tornado-size dust devils pound Slaton, Texas one right after another. The drought stricken west Texas plains seems to have become a dust bowl as sustained high winds wreak havoc on the farms. Slaton is situated just south of Lubbock, Texas.
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The "broad circulation" belongs to the westward drifting monsoon-not a developing tropical system.
In part, the Upper Level Anticyclone is or will be a product of convective exhaust caused by the the monsoon in a low shear environment. Not a just a coincidence of weather. The anticylone seems to stack up very well underneath the monsoon in the models.
Over the past couple years of personal observation, it seems the global models do not handle cyclogenesis under a monsoon very well. Genesis is anything but typical. Always seems to be a waiting game.
Ok, sorry. That was three.
click any graphic to open in a new window
00Z GFS 700mb @24hrs
700mb "monsoon" circulation centered at 20N
00Z GFS 200mb @24hrs
Anticyclone parked overhead
AL, 95, 2011062800, , BEST, 0, 194N, 916W, 20, 1006,
It will either develop or not develop. If it does that'd be nice for the drought, if it doesn't then oh well. I'm not saying its going to develop, but I don't think chances are that bad. The latest GFS has dropped the idea of Arlene forming and convection has dissipated a bit, so personally I'd have to say my chances of development are a little lower than what the NHC is saying. Maybe 30-40%. I'd expect there to be more convection in the morning after dmax, but we shall see
oh my bad. what should it be called though? Llc? Open circulation? I wasn't entirely sure what to call it because I haven't taken a very good look at it in a while or seen any ascat passes.
about the upper ac, yea I know.
lol, I didn't mean you personally, just in terms of development.
Latest GFS (0z) bottoms out the low at 1005mb in 36hrs. Possibly a very weak TS. Not sure if this is a very realistic solution, however, since this is at 36 hrs and I'm not sure this system can get that organized in such a short time as shear will only just be dropping and the upper ac will only just be getting overhead and convection will need to get going
I asked that question earlier and was told that it's a tropical wave interacting with an upper level low. It does look like it's blowing up right now though.
Yeah got a few of them.
That blob is just Divergence from an ULL spinning in the area. Nothing to worry about!
Yeah it's nice fishing and duck hunting there. We have a camp at Boothville, it's awesome in that area.
You are absolutely correct lol. They don't like to come out much in the daytime. The few pics I have of him are just after sunset, just the last minutes of daylight, during the peak of the rut.
Ya can't beat da food down here no.
With near unanimous model support in the short term (this is only 24-48 hrs out), I'd say there's a pretty good chance this becomes TD1. Id say Arlene is probably about 50/50 as the NHC said.
Ah thanks for the reply.
Btw here's the link I got off of someone else's blog. Not sure if he moved to another link or something.
Link
yup dead
the low has gotten better defined as well IMO
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/rb-l.jpg
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