Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Hottest day on record in Texas Panhandle; fire threatens Los Alamos

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:54 PM GMT en Junio 27, 2011

The hottest temperatures in recorded history scorched large portions of the Texas Panhandle, Oklahoma Panhandle, and southwestern Kansas on Sunday. Amarillo hit 111°, breaking its hottest day-ever record of 109° (set just two days previously, on June 24). Borger, Texas hit 113°, smashing the previous hottest day-ever record set on June 24, 2011 of 108°. Dalhart, Texas had its hottest day on record, 110°, beating the 108° on June 24, 2011. Dodge City, Kansas tied its all-time record with 110° (last seen on June 29, 1998). Dodge City has temperature records back to 1874. Yesterday saw the hottest temperatures of the month for Texas with 116.2° at Childress, Northfield, and Memphis (all in the panhandle region.) These readings are not far from the state record of 120° set at Monahas on June 28, 1994 and at Seymore on August 12, 1936.

A cold front moved through the region overnight, bringing northerly winds and cooler temperatures to the region. However, a new ridge of high pressure will gradually build in this week and temperatures are expected to reach near-record levels again by Thursday, with 102°F expected in Amarillo, which is their all-time record for the date. The record-breaking temperatures in Texas are being caused, in part, by the record drought. Under normal conditions, the sun's heat expends part of its energy evaporating water from the soil and from vegetation. This energy is stored as "latent heat" in the water evaporated, and is not available to heat the air up. However, when a severe drought dries up the soil and kills the vegetation, there is much more heat available to go directly into heating up the air, since there is little moisture to evaporate. The increased temperatures help to strengthen the high pressure system dominating the drought region, making it even more difficult for rain-bearing low pressure systems to bring drought-busting rains. This positive feedback effect is a key reason why we expect more intense droughts and heat waves in a warmer climate.

Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt has many more details on the great Texas drought of 2011 in his latest post, updated Sunday night. He reports that Pecos, Texas has had no precipitation since September 23, 2010--one of the longest rain-free periods for a U.S. city in recorded history, outside of the desert regions of Arizona and California.

Figure 1. Latest weekly drought conditions for Texas, as compiled by the U.S. Drought Monitor. West Texas is experiencing its worst drought in recorded history.

Fire threatens Los Alamos, New Mexico
A major wildfire has burned to a spot one mile southwest of Los Alamos, New Mexico today, forcing the nuclear laboratory there to close and send home all 11,000 of its employees. The fire was fanned by winds that reached sustained speeds of 32 mph, gusting to 45 mph, along with temperatures in the upper 80s and humidities as low as 9%. Today, winds will be weaker, 10 - 20 mph, but are expected to to turn to the southwest, which would force the fire towards the laboratory. According to the NOAA Storm Prediction Center, these will not be critical fire conditions, and critical fire conditions are not expected to return to the area until Thursday.

Figure 2. Noon satellite image of the tropical disturbance crossing Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula.

Tropical disturbance approaching the Gulf of Mexico
Heavy thunderstorm activity is increasing over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and adjacent waters due to a tropical wave moving west-northwest towards the Gulf of Mexico. Wind shear is currently 20 - 30 knots, which is too high to permit significant development, but wind shear is forecast to fall to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, on Tuesday, as the wave emerges over the Gulf of Mexico. Several of our reliable computer models are predicting that a system that may approach tropical depression strength could form in the southern Gulf of Mexico in the Bay of Campeche Tuesday or Wednesday. NHC is giving the system a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday. Development will be hindered by a large region of dry air to the west, associated with the great 2011 Texas-Mexico drought. However, the topography surrounding the Bay of Campeche tends to boost counter-clockwise air flow, enabling systems there to spin up faster than any other portion of the Atlantic.

There is a strong ridge of high pressure over the Gulf, which should act to keep any storm that might form far to the south, with impacts limited to Mexico and perhaps extreme South Texas. Mexico could use the rain. A report from The Latin American Herald Tribune states that 40% of the nation is experiencing its worst drought in 70 years. There are portions of the state of Coahulia where no rain has fallen since last September (just like Pecos in Texas). Wild fires have so far burned 500,000 acres in northern regions near the U.S. border.

Jeff Masters

Los Conchas Fire Jun 26 (gilg72)

This fire just started today Jun 26. It is SW of Los Alamos and only a few miles away. I don't know the cause at this time. These photos as viewed from the Espanola NM area. Voluntary evacuations in all of Los Alamos County per last report.

Dust devils the size of tornadoes (darnold)

Dozens of massive tornado-size dust devils pound Slaton, Texas one right after another. The drought stricken west Texas plains seems to have become a dust bowl as sustained high winds wreak havoc on the farms. Slaton is situated just south of Lubbock, Texas.

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1052. Levi32 1:39 PM GMT en Junio 28, 2011
Quoting P451: Rotation evident on radar. Ending 1300z. Looks like westerly winds may be developing. High-resolution visible is catching them as well. Member Since: Noviembre 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25450

1053. MrstormX 1:42 PM GMT en Junio 28, 2011
So this trough split in a few days, some models like the CMC have the system along Carolina and others like NOGAPS have it in the GOM. It is going to be interesting to watch. Member Since: Mayo 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4232

1054. Skyepony (Mod) 1:47 PM GMT en Junio 28, 2011
Wind Direction Member Since: Agosto 10, 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29327

1055. CybrTeddy 1:47 PM GMT en Junio 28, 2011
Quoting MrstormX: So this trough split in a few days, some models like the CMC have the system along Carolina and others like NOGAPS have it in the GOM. It is going to be interesting to watch. I see Levi didn't mention it in his video, he's probably looking for more model support & consistency as they're dropping it every other run. Member Since: Julio 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20240

1056. Some1Has2BtheRookie 1:48 PM GMT en Junio 28, 2011
Quoting P451: Unfortunately not. Steering layers all move west into Mexico at all heights. CIMSS is screwed up this AM can't access the newest steering layer maps but as of yesterday they were all uniform with height. I just wanted to check in this morning to see if a miracle was about to happen and Texas was going to get some tropical rains. No signs of a miracle yet. Perhaps I am on the wrong blog for that? I want to thank each of you for all of the information you provide us that are less skilled. Thanks! .... Now, about those miracles? Member Since: Agosto 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4102

1057. Skyepony (Mod) 1:49 PM GMT en Junio 28, 2011
NOAA declared invest in the EPAC is look rather healthy this morning. Member Since: Agosto 10, 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29327

1058. Levi32 1:52 PM GMT en Junio 28, 2011
Quoting CybrTeddy: I see Levi didn't mention it in his video, he's probably looking for more model support & consistency as they're dropping it every other run. That would be it lol. It doesn't look like that pronounced of a trough-split, either. Member Since: Noviembre 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25450

1059. CybrTeddy 1:58 PM GMT en Junio 28, 2011
Recon still on. 1 hr 15 minutes or so before takeoff. 000 NOUS42 KNHC 271730 WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 0130 PM EDT MON 27 JUNE 2011 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 28/1100Z TO 29/1100Z JUNE 2011 TCPOD NUMBER.....11-027 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 A. 28/1800Z B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST C. 28/1515Z D. 21.0N 94.0W E. 28/1730Z TO 28/2200Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71 A. 29/1200Z B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE C. 29/0930Z D. 22.0N 96.0W E. 29/1130Z TO 29/1600Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES WHILE SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT. II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE. JWP Member Since: Julio 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20240

1060. kwgirl 2:01 PM GMT en Junio 28, 2011
Quoting LPStormspotter: I watched a Jim cantori show about the keys last week. Is it true what they say about there? And that would be? Member Since: Marzo 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1530

1061. Patrap 2:02 PM GMT en Junio 28, 2011
95L Floater - RGB Color Infrared Loop Member Since: Julio 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111434

1062. Neapolitan 2:05 PM GMT en Junio 28, 2011
NEW BLOG ENTRY Member Since: Noviembre 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11155

1063. Jax82 2:06 PM GMT en Junio 28, 2011
NEW BLOG Member Since: Septiembre 2, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 1261

1065. NOLALawyer 3:09 PM GMT en Junio 28, 2011
And, the season starts with a worthless wimper. Bleh. Member Since: Septiembre 3, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 517

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