Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Using the Panama Rawinsonde it shows a wind shift to the NE at lower levels, the Hovmoller shows convection moving from right to left (westward) and the model data.

Thanks, It was just that I never read that before on the TWO.

To whoever you posted the conditions that could make for a very active hurricane season earlier do you think its possible that we can see a Dennis/Emily type situation in July?

Quoting CybrTeddy:
Two days ago when Sunday was at 50% I said it would be down to 20% in 24 hours. Guess I was right. Thanks 94L for the letdown.

Take away the 10 to 20 percent chance of rain and add 10 to 15 degrees to the highs and you have my weather but you can keep the humidity. :)

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'd be nice if CIMSS Tropical Cyclones would do a product archive back about 30 years or so that for systems like Hurricane Allen, one of the strongest hurricanes of all (190 mph), we could see what conditions were like for development.

You can always look at daily NCEP reanalysis composites for the time period when Allen was around. They will give you a decent idea of what was going on.

For example, here is the absolutely majestic 200mb wind structure around Allen while he was a Cat 5 in the northwest Caribbean. Absolutely beautiful.

Look I got a 50,000 acre fire going out here and I know that it does not compare to whats going on in Arizona. However what I do know is that we are losing water inches by inches daily out of Lake Okeechobee, and we need rain badly. I want to know where all the promised rain is this weekend, the smoke has been creating weird cloud formations and even Smoke Tornadoes

Not to quibble but i think you may have that backwards, depends. From my perspective storm is the actor and CONUS is the audience. Means storm would be entering from stage left.

"R" and "L" are "stage right" and "stage left". HOWEVER (This is really important to understand) stage right is the actor's right as the actor stands on the stage facing the audience. Stage left is the actor's left as the actor stands on the stage facing the audience.If the actor is facing up stage (toward the back wall), stage right and stage left are determined as if the actor were standing on the stage facing the audience. So the left side of the stage is always the left side. It doesn't change when the actor faces different directions. The right side of the stage is always the right side. It also doesn't change when the actor faces different directionsLink

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Our little blob some have been watching for a few days entering stage right.

Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Look I got a 50,000 acre fire going out here and I know that it does not compare to whats going on in Arizona. However what I do know is that we are losing water inches by inches daily out of Lake Okeechobee, and we need rain badly. I want to know where all the promised rain is this weekend, the smoke has been creating weird cloud formations and even Smoke Tornadoes

all the rain is gone ne out over sw tropical atlantic looks to be dry desert like conditions for a bit yet rainy season has not firer up and may not even occur at all maybe a tropical system that comes along will bring the rain and those dont start till late june july and onward

I just wanted to alert everyone that our (Barbados) new Doppler Radar has not been working for the last 3 months or so, last image data posted was on March 1st., and we only managed to get the local met. authorities to get it online very late last year - after Tomas went through us and it wasn't working properly then either.

http://www.barbadosweather.org/radarImagery.php

The system has been producing imagery since late 2008 and its 3 year warranty runs out later this year and we still have not seen 'return on the EU loan' that funded the project. Our Met. Office's attitude as quoted in one local paper on the subject was like we did without for all this time, we can continue to make do (with the radar out of Martinique nearly 150 miles away). So much for serious consideration and disaster preparedness.

Furthermore the Rawinsonde/Radiosonde ground equipment at our local Met. Office, located at the Grantley Adams Int'l. Airport (GAIA), has not been working either for about 6 weeks, so no sonde data had been posted by TBPB/78954 station since the later half of April. Its awaiting some part. This missing data has the NHC/NWS obviously concerned because of the strategic position of Barbados being the most easterly of the Caribbean islands.

http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/sounding.html
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/aerosol_web/adp_plots/ raobs/raobs_world.html
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/aerosol_web/adp_plots/ raobs/78954/latest.html

I have written letters to the locals newspapers with some success in getting it published, tried various avenues, some could be promising but bureaucratic inertia could be an issue, so I decided to go full open on this and warn all concerned.

Our tropical wave along ~52W has a signature on ASCAT:

Quoting brohavwx:
I just wanted to alert everyone that our (Barbados) new Doppler Radar has not been working for the last 3 months or so, last image data posted was on March 1st., and we only managed to get the local met. authorities to get it online very late last year - after Tomas went through us and it wasn't working properly then either.

http://www.barbadosweather.org/radarImagery.php

The system has been producing imagery since late 2008 and its 3 year warranty runs out later this year and we still have not seen 'return on the EU loan' that funded the project. Our Met. Office's attitude as quoted in one local paper on the subject was like we did without for all this time, we can continue to make do (with the radar out of Martinique nearly 150 miles away). So much for serious consideration and disaster preparedness.

Furthermore the Rawinsonde/Radiosonde ground equipment at our local Met. Office, located at the Grantley Adams Int'l. Airport (GAIA), has not been working either for about 6 weeks, so no sonde data had been posted by TBPB/78954 station since the later half of April. Its awaiting some part. This missing data has the NHC/NWS obviously concerned because of the strategic position of Barbados being the most easterly of the Caribbean islands.

http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/sounding.html
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/aerosol_web/adp_plots/ raobs/raobs_world.html
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/aerosol_web/adp_plots/ raobs/78954/latest.html

I have written letters to the locals newspapers with some success in getting it published, tried various avenues, some could be promising but bureaucratic inertia could be an issue, so I decided to go full open on this and warn all concerned.

Thank you very much for the info. Those instruments are definitely essential to have online, not only for Barbados but for other interests in the Caribbean that rely on the data that comes from Barbados. I hope you make some headway in getting people to fix those tools.

Quoting Levi32:
Our tropical wave along ~52W has a signature on ASCAT:

and a well-defined inverted V-signature:



It's impressive.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


and a well-defined inverted V-signature:



It's impressive.

Indeed. Too bad it's about to move into a confluent environment aloft. It may not look so nice after a day of that.

Quoting Grothar:
We are going to play a quick game of racquetball and be back later. Have fun!

You found your round rock and one handed club again! Be careful, don't start any wars.

Thanks for 'heads up' on that, BROHAVWX.

The Trinidad Radar is at

www.metoffice.gov.tt/satellite_imagery/radar.aspx

Quoting brohavwx:
I just wanted to alert everyone that our (Barbados) new Doppler Radar has not been working for the last 3 months or so, last image data posted was on March 1st., and we only managed to get the local met. authorities to get it online very late last year - after Tomas went through us and it wasn't working properly then either.

http://www.barbadosweather.org/radarImagery.php

The system has been producing imagery since late 2008 and its 3 year warranty runs out later this year and we still have not seen 'return on the EU loan' that funded the project. Our Met. Office's attitude as quoted in one local paper on the subject was like we did without for all this time, we can continue to make do (with the radar out of Martinique nearly 150 miles away). So much for serious consideration and disaster preparedness.

Furthermore the Rawinsonde/Radiosonde ground equipment at our local Met. Office, located at the Grantley Adams Int'l. Airport (GAIA), has not been working either for about 6 weeks, so no sonde data had been posted by TBPB/78954 station since the later half of April. Its awaiting some part. This missing data has the NHC/NWS obviously concerned because of the strategic position of Barbados being the most easterly of the Caribbean islands.

http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/sounding.html
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/aerosol_web/adp_plots/ raobs/raobs_world.html
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/aerosol_web/adp_plots/ raobs/78954/latest.html

I have written letters to the locals newspapers with some success in getting it published, tried various avenues, some could be promising but bureaucratic inertia could be an issue, so I decided to go full open on this and warn all concerned.

Wounder how many tomahawk missals the world would have to do without to fix this. Sounds strategic to me. Just saying.

It's a bit concerning to look back at all the hurricane seasons since 1950 with 3 or more hurricane hits on the United States, and then compare those with 2011. This image shows the difference between 2011 May SST anomalies and the SST anomalies of all of those years (2011 minus all). We have been a whole lot warmer in the MDR so far in 2011, thanks to the wild winter we had over North America.

finalmente aterrizan en el tropico

Trinidad weather--
Temp 93f (an hour ago)
Dew Pt. 75
Heat Index 98F

It's a little Warm....

Quoting pottery:
Trinidad weather--
Temp 93f (an hour ago)
Dew Pt. 75
Heat Index 98F

It's a little Warm....

Noth-Central PR weather
Temp 90F
Dew Point 77
Heat Index 104F
It's too hot out here.

Quoting Levi32:
It's a bit concerning to look back at all the hurricane seasons since 1950 with 3 or more hurricane hits on the United States, and then compare those with 2011. This image shows the difference between 2011 May SST anomalies and the SST anomalies of all of those years (2011 minus all). We have been a whole lot warmer in the MDR so far in 2011, thanks to the wild winter we had over North America.

That is troubling.

The GFS ensembles are now again starting to show the kind of pattern that could lead to tropical mischief in the western Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico during the last week of June. Ridging (green colors) over eastern North America, if far enough north, tends to incubate the tropical circulation cell to its south, and upward motion is being indicated in the west Caribbean by below-normal 500mb heights (blue colors). These heights are not low because of colder temperature, but because of upward motion initiating the release of latent heat into the upper troposphere, expanding the air column and lowering the 500mb height level.

We are now in a deficit of 10" here.

Most of the MJO ensemble systems are sniffing out phases 8, 1, and 2 by June 25th or so.

NICE ONE SHEN !!!

going to learn that one, fo' sho' !

Quoting Levi32:


Thank you very much for the info. Those instruments are definitely essential to have online, not only for Barbados but for other interests in the Caribbean that rely on the data that comes from Barbados. I hope you make some headway in getting people to fix those tools.

I am on the same thinking as Levi. Every radar that we can have from the islands is very important when tropical systems move thru.

Is this what would you call a good environment to get something going?

Quoting P451:
Antilles radar ending 1730z

Lookin' like DrySeason comeback, Man!

Quoting Hurrykane:
Also troubling


THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA FROM THE PRIME
MERIDIAN AND 17N ALONG 15N6W 15N13W ACROSS GUINEA TO 8N17W
6N25W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N25W ALONG 5N39W 7N52W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM N
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 30W-37W...AND WITHIN 250 NM N OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 43W-47W.

It will be interesting to see this map when Dekad 1 of June comes out in a couple days.

Quoting Cantu5977:
Is this what would you call a good environment to get something going?

That would be a very favorable setup for the southern Gulf of Mexico, yes. That is why I'm watching for that area to have something in it during the last week of the month. The GFS has been consistent on that kind of ridge developing.

Quoting Hurrykane:
Also troubling


THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA FROM THE PRIME
MERIDIAN AND 17N ALONG 15N6W 15N13W ACROSS GUINEA TO 8N17W
6N25W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N25W ALONG 5N39W 7N52W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM N
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 30W-37W...AND WITHIN 250 NM N OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 43W-47W.

I'm seeing the Azores High.
Where is the Bermuda High ?

It's pouring with rain at the Canadian Formula 1 Grand Prix in Montreal. So much so the race has been red flagged.

Quoting AussieStorm:
It's pouring with rain at the Canadian Formula 1 grand Prix in Montreal.

Hope they have the right tires!
Maybe those off-road ones with lugs....

The Bermuda High is more of a Bermuda Ridge, in reality. The Azores High is always the anchor of highest pressure in the Atlantic basin. The Bermuda High is basically a westward extension of that high pressure area into the western Atlantic, which is usually more of a ridge. The whole thing is often referred to as the Azores-Bermuda High.

June-September MSLP:

Quoting pottery:

Hope they have the right tires!
Maybe those off-road ones with lugs....

Only small area of rain but it's throwing it down.
Montreal Radar

Quoting pottery:
NICE ONE SHEN !!!

going to learn that one, fo' sho' !

Tom Rush's interpretation is probably the most well known. Johny Cash did a fine take on it as well.

All is quite in the Atlantic basin with models not showing development for the next 7 days. FEMA does not need any more billion dollar disasters this year.

Texas would be very happy to see this if it pans out in 10-15 days. The ECMWF ensembles are indicating a break in the tropical ridge over the western Gulf of Mexico by Day 10. If any kind of tropical moisture moves into place in that region, it's possible that it could move up and give Texas some water.

Thanks, Hurrycane and Levi.