Little change to 94L; exceptional heat in Texas, record rains in California
There is not much change to report on the large, wet, and disorganized tropical disturbance (Invest 94L) in the Western Caribbean, between Jamaica and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. The disturbance has brought intermittent heavy rains to Jamaica over the past two days, but nearby islands have thus far escaped the deluge. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts of 1" per hour occurred in ocean regions just east of Jamaica this morning, but the heaviest rains have missed the island so far this morning. Visible satellite loops show no increase in organization of 94L in recent hours, and the storm's low-level spiral bands and upper-level outflow are poorly defined. The storm's center of low pressure is located about 130 miles south of Grand Cayman Island, in a region with no heavy thunderstorm activity. An intense clump of thunderstorms exists on either side of this low, near Jamaica, and just east of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Water vapor satellite loops show the Caribbean has moistened over the past two days, and upper air balloon soundings from the Cayman Islands continue to show much moister air at mid levels of the atmosphere (2% humidity at 500 mb on Saturday, compared to 69% last night.) Wind shear remains in the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots, and is predicted by the SHIPS model to remain below 20 knots through tonight. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 28 - 28.5°C, which is 2°C above the threshold needed to support development of a tropical storm.
Figure 1. Rainfall rates of up to 1" per hour (orange colors) were estimated by the F-17 satellite for 94L at 7:03am EDT Jun 6, 2011. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.
Since 94L is so large and poorly organized, today's mission by the Hurricane Hunters has been cancelled. A new mission is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon at 2pm EDT. This morning's 00Z and 06Z model runs were unimpressed with 94L, with most of them showing little or no development. A band of very high wind shear of 30 - 50 knots lies over Cuba and the southern Bahama Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models show 94L pushing slowly northwest at about 5 mph, hitting this shear on Tuesday and Wednesday, preventing any further development. The NOGAPS model predicts that a gap may open up in the shear sufficient for the storm to organize into a tropical depression late this week. Given 94L's current disorganization, I doubt the storm will ever develop. NHC gave 94L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday, and I believe these odds should be lower, near 20%. Regardless of development, 94L is capable of bringing very heavy rains to Jamaica, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and Haiti through Wednesday. These rains will probably spread northwards into South Florida and the Bahama Islands by Thursday or Friday.
Figure 2. Morning satellite image of 94L.
Exceptional heat in the South
A sizzling June heat wave set record high temperatures across much of Texas, Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle on Sunday. The high temperature at the Houston, Texas airport hit 105 degrees, the warmest temperature ever recorded in the month of June (old record: 104 degrees on June 24th and June 26th, 2009.) The earliest Houston ever recorded a temperature of 105 degrees prior to Sunday was July 26th, 1954. Records for Houston date back to 1891. There have been only 15 days in which the temperature has reached or exceeded 105 degrees in Houston:
4 - 1909
1 - 1954
2 - 1962
3 - 1980
5 - 2000
So far this month, new maximum temperature records in Houston have been established on four out of the first five days. Galveston and Houston both crushed their previous record high temperature for the day (June 5th) by a remarkable seven degrees. Residents can expect another day of triple-digit heat today, thanks to the upper level ridge of high pressure parked over the state. Houston will likely break the old record of 98°F for the date.
Figure 3. An intense low pressure system moves inland over California as seen in this satellite photo taken June 4, 2011, at 2pm PDT. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.
Record rains in California
A large and unusually intense low pressure system moved inland over California over the weekend, bringing large areas of the state rains unheard of in June. According to our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, rainfall at Mining Ridge on the Big Sur coast totaled 8.31" Sunday, which, if verified, would be California's heaviest 1-day June rainstorm on record. According to the document "Historic Rainstorms in California" Dept. of Water Resources, Aug. 1997, the previous maximum June daily rainfall was 5.83" at Forni Ridge on June 18, 1982. San Francisco had its 2nd greatest June 1-day rainfall, going back to 1850, and both the San Francisco and Oakland airport have now had their rainiest Junes on record. Rainfall at Santa Barbara Airport yesterday totaled 1.24 inches, the wettest June day there on record (previous record: 0.51" on June 5, 2009.) The 1.38"of rain so far this June has made it the wettest June in recorded history at Santa Barbara Airport, going back to 1941.
Jeff Masters
Normally June should be warm and dry. Many areas have had more rainfall in one day than they usually get in the entire month of June. All due to this system: http://www.wunderground.com/data/images/GOES_CA_STORM.jpg
Reader Comments
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They have been so out of whack; 94L looks like crap and then they start developing something. When it looked pretty decent the last few days they all dropped it
What models....I see the hyperactive HWRF and that's it.
so many jokes...so little blog space...
That's a nice way to put it XD.
New meds. LOL You know me, I am quite modest and didn't want to appear like a show-off.
Hey, in case you didn't know, I am Scandinavian and I don't appreciate you posting a picture of my mother-in-law!
California.
LOL clay I can deal with.
Concrete is so heavy.
Tomorrow I get to spend the day cleaning up out there. It's a mess...
It did not rain today but the ground is soft and has been well torn-up.
But it began separate from 94l as a typical thunderstorm over Nicaragua
Hey, I posted the hyperactive HWRF! Here's the conservative GFS. I thought the blog needed an infusion of action.
I've done some foundation work in my time. Not to mention adding a second story to a church in the D.R. where all the "concreto" was mixed in large piles on the floor. It definitely is heavy.
First, I'm no weather expert at all. But just from reading this blog, and looking up things I don't know, I'm learning a lot!
Second, y'all crack me up! Even when things get a little hectic here, I usually can catch some humor in someone's posts.
Living on the coast most of my life, I've been through a few hurricanes. My very first was Fredrick. I've been through Opal, Erin, Dennis, Ivan, Katrina. I'm sure I've missed some that aren't as memorable.
As much as we need the rain here, our economy doesn't need the hit a storm would do to us after the oil spill last year.
Thanks, guys and girls! Y'all do a great job of explaining the weather! (even to a novice!)
*now back to lurking*
Help or hinder? and in what ways? I don't believe it will save or revive 94l in any way at all, I'm just wondering what kind of impact thunderstorms coming off land like that would have on our weak, disorganized, elongated surface low 94l
LOL ...LMBO!
Link
It's just land-based convection during the heat of the afternoon increasing instability there. Land-based convection is never great for tropical systems as it increases competing upward motion against the ocean.
Weve been getting a lot of rain in puerto rico two years running, last year wettest on record. I live on the dry side and its been raining for weeks
First hurricane for me was hugo pretty memorable and my most intense
Comment withheld.
Development is appearing less likely at this time.
It was Good. Good crew of 5, placing steel, hand mixing about 8 cu yds and barrowing it about 40 feet.
I supervised mostly, but put my hand in when I saw it was needed.
It was 96F at 2:00 today.
Of course there's also the possibility this dry weather will just continue and its a sign of yet again declining in Florida rain and thunderstorm activity the last few years.
Lets hope though that soon tropical moisture will dominate the state leading to frequent and widespread rains.
WOW talk about coming out of the woodwork. (wait - that was something Pottery was sayin about Grothar coming out of somewhere).
Member Since: August 15, 2003 Posts: 0 Comments: 2
Welcome back, and don't be such a Chatty Cathy. ;)
and before anyone says anything my sister had one
Dies that mean that FL is the "new" dust bowl?
This ASCAT is nearly 24hrs old.
Was this the storm you are talking about. Should have been around your 40th B-Day
1926 Miami: The blow that broke the boom
The 1926 storm was described by the U.S. Weather Bureau in Miami as "probably the most destructive hurricane ever to strike the United States." It hit Fort Lauderdale, Dania, Hollywood, Hallandale and Miami. The death toll is estimated to be from 325 to perhaps as many as 800. No storm in previous history had done as much property damage.
Invest94 Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)
Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)
That cannot be tonight as it is not yet 3 UTC. Isn't that the old pass from 24 hours ago that has not been cleared yet ??
An Hugo-like storm would spread panic now. I never experienced it, but I know it was horrible. Also, "Hugo" is an ominous name. So are "Ivan", "Igor" and "Dennis". At least they're all retired now. Anyways, I hope this season doesn't affect us at all.
for the love of god please, i don't want to have those nightmares again. lol
Keep in mind though, Puerto Rico is tropical island with much of the island having rainforest climate. Some areas on average receive 80 to 100 inches or more a year in the interior. Its not really that surprising to me to hear about intense periods of rain for a long term. In wet climates, there are usually more flooding rain periods than droughts.
Which is why I'm concerned about Florida. Florida's climate ranges from 40 to 45 inches a year in drier areas and 60 to 70 inches a year in the wettest areas, and most of that falls between June and October, making us a wet subtropical climate... However, in the last several years, our wet seasons have gotten lamer, and we've had more drought periods than heavy rain periods, which has me worried about climate change a little. Let's just hope its a climate cycle, and not a sign of the future for Florida.
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