Little change to 94L; exceptional heat in Texas, record rains in California
There is not much change to report on the large, wet, and disorganized tropical disturbance (Invest 94L) in the Western Caribbean, between Jamaica and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. The disturbance has brought intermittent heavy rains to Jamaica over the past two days, but nearby islands have thus far escaped the deluge. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts of 1" per hour occurred in ocean regions just east of Jamaica this morning, but the heaviest rains have missed the island so far this morning. Visible satellite loops show no increase in organization of 94L in recent hours, and the storm's low-level spiral bands and upper-level outflow are poorly defined. The storm's center of low pressure is located about 130 miles south of Grand Cayman Island, in a region with no heavy thunderstorm activity. An intense clump of thunderstorms exists on either side of this low, near Jamaica, and just east of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Water vapor satellite loops show the Caribbean has moistened over the past two days, and upper air balloon soundings from the Cayman Islands continue to show much moister air at mid levels of the atmosphere (2% humidity at 500 mb on Saturday, compared to 69% last night.) Wind shear remains in the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots, and is predicted by the SHIPS model to remain below 20 knots through tonight. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 28 - 28.5°C, which is 2°C above the threshold needed to support development of a tropical storm.
Figure 1. Rainfall rates of up to 1" per hour (orange colors) were estimated by the F-17 satellite for 94L at 7:03am EDT Jun 6, 2011. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.
Since 94L is so large and poorly organized, today's mission by the Hurricane Hunters has been cancelled. A new mission is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon at 2pm EDT. This morning's 00Z and 06Z model runs were unimpressed with 94L, with most of them showing little or no development. A band of very high wind shear of 30 - 50 knots lies over Cuba and the southern Bahama Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models show 94L pushing slowly northwest at about 5 mph, hitting this shear on Tuesday and Wednesday, preventing any further development. The NOGAPS model predicts that a gap may open up in the shear sufficient for the storm to organize into a tropical depression late this week. Given 94L's current disorganization, I doubt the storm will ever develop. NHC gave 94L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday, and I believe these odds should be lower, near 20%. Regardless of development, 94L is capable of bringing very heavy rains to Jamaica, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and Haiti through Wednesday. These rains will probably spread northwards into South Florida and the Bahama Islands by Thursday or Friday.
Figure 2. Morning satellite image of 94L.
Exceptional heat in the South
A sizzling June heat wave set record high temperatures across much of Texas, Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle on Sunday. The high temperature at the Houston, Texas airport hit 105 degrees, the warmest temperature ever recorded in the month of June (old record: 104 degrees on June 24th and June 26th, 2009.) The earliest Houston ever recorded a temperature of 105 degrees prior to Sunday was July 26th, 1954. Records for Houston date back to 1891. There have been only 15 days in which the temperature has reached or exceeded 105 degrees in Houston:
4 - 1909
1 - 1954
2 - 1962
3 - 1980
5 - 2000
So far this month, new maximum temperature records in Houston have been established on four out of the first five days. Galveston and Houston both crushed their previous record high temperature for the day (June 5th) by a remarkable seven degrees. Residents can expect another day of triple-digit heat today, thanks to the upper level ridge of high pressure parked over the state. Houston will likely break the old record of 98°F for the date.
Figure 3. An intense low pressure system moves inland over California as seen in this satellite photo taken June 4, 2011, at 2pm PDT. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.
Record rains in California
A large and unusually intense low pressure system moved inland over California over the weekend, bringing large areas of the state rains unheard of in June. According to our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, rainfall at Mining Ridge on the Big Sur coast totaled 8.31" Sunday, which, if verified, would be California's heaviest 1-day June rainstorm on record. According to the document "Historic Rainstorms in California" Dept. of Water Resources, Aug. 1997, the previous maximum June daily rainfall was 5.83" at Forni Ridge on June 18, 1982. San Francisco had its 2nd greatest June 1-day rainfall, going back to 1850, and both the San Francisco and Oakland airport have now had their rainiest Junes on record. Rainfall at Santa Barbara Airport yesterday totaled 1.24 inches, the wettest June day there on record (previous record: 0.51" on June 5, 2009.) The 1.38"of rain so far this June has made it the wettest June in recorded history at Santa Barbara Airport, going back to 1941.
Jeff Masters
Normally June should be warm and dry. Many areas have had more rainfall in one day than they usually get in the entire month of June. All due to this system: http://www.wunderground.com/data/images/GOES_CA_STORM.jpg
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rain to the right of me
stuck in the middle again
Ah, but you don't know if it was Kindegarten or college. LOL
must have some kind if infection or something
Anyway thank you Pottery
Vorticity all spread out all over the place and not consolidated...94L is pretty much dead.
No chance of development, but I dont care, it's still fun to watch
It means that if the diurnal cycle is being delayed, it could indicate the 94L's central pressure is still falling, partially offsetting the rebound in pressure that is usually starting by this time of day.
LoL
200 miles to go, hopefully it can maintain some moisture. Glad to have you aboard as well.
I thought the last line was "stuck in the middle with you? You're slipping Dan.
AL, 94, 2011060700, , BEST, 0, 177N, 815W, 25, 1005, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 300, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
Strange that you mention it but I always had you as in the college of Avalon teaching Merlin, possibly from knowledge gained from Gandalf!
Evening sage Grother.
They'all can drive you to distraction, eh, Pat????
Gotta make sure no Libyans are embedded in anything and headed this way. :|
Pressure is lower than 91E's, appearently.
If the central pressure of the disturbance is falling then yes that helps it. Part of me doubts it though, as the lack of convection strongly suggests that the low is weakening. We will find out in time.
Sorry Pat and Grothar. Trying to knock some sense into a little kid LOL
...lol.... :)
Its cool outside,,
Looked around, was afraid to be stuck in the middle with the people in here. :)
I'm jealous Pat!!
California's attempts to switch to green energy have inadvertently put the survival of the state%u2019s golden eagles at risk.
Scores of the protected birds have been dying each year after colliding with the blades of about 5,000 wind turbines.
Now the drive for renewable power sources, such as wind and the sun, being promoted by President Obama and state Governor Jerry Brown has raised fears that the number of newborn golden eagles may not be able to keep pace with the number of turbine fatalities.
The death count along the ridgelines of the Bay Area's Altamount Pass Wind Resource Area has averaged 67 a year for three decades.
The 200 ft high turbines, which have been operating since the 1980s, lie in the heart of the grassy canyons that are home to one of the highest densities of nesting golden eagles in the US.
'It would take 167 pairs of local nesting golden eagles to produce enough young to compensate for their mortality rate related to wind energy production,' field biologist Doug Bell, manager of East Bay Regional Park District's wildlife programme, told the Los Angeles Times. 'We only have 60 pairs,' he added.
Field biologists, monitoring the birds, say it would take 167 pairs of local nesting eagles to produce enough young to compensate for the loses. Currently they only have 60 pairs
Nationwide, about 440,000 birds are said to be accidentally killed at wind farms each year, as well as thousands more bats. With the government pushing for more wind energy farms, that statistic is likely to rise.
Another recovering species, the California Condor, is also said to be at risk from the giant blades.
'We taxpayers have spent millions of dollars saving the California condor from extinction,' Gary George, spokesman for Audubon California, told the Times.
'How's the public going to feel about wind energy if a condor hits the turbines?'
Newer carbines are said to be less harmful to birds and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service has asked power bosses to turn off the wind machines during times of heavy bird migration.
But the moves have done little to protect the golden eagles, which weigh about 14 pounds and stand up to 409 inches tall.
Their flight behaviour makes it difficult for them to navigate through masses of wind turbine towers, especially when they are easily distracted by prey on the ground.
'The eagles usually die of blunt-force trauma injuries,' said Mr Bell.
'Once, I discovered a wounded golden eagle hobbling through tall grass, about a quarter mile from the turbine blades that had clipped its flight feathers.'
'A wind farm owner once told me that if there were no witnesses, it would be impossible to prove a bird had been killed by a wind turbine blade. My response was this: If you see a golden eagle sliced in half in a wind farm, what other explanation is there?' he added.
Cruel, but very funny. LOL
http://www.koamtv.com/story/14849345/20000-cubic- yards-down Article...
What a mess.
Have to assume failure, I can't imagine the diurnal cycle not showing up. I think that would be a little bigger event than our 94L invest, lol. Devoid of convection it's hard to think pressures are still dropping above the cycle.
It was schweet,,but I was caught under a Audoboun PArk Shelter for all of it,,Hail,Wind,Lightening bolts from Thor..
I got pics and video too,,but Im too pooped to upload
its lower now
AL, 94, 2011060700, , BEST, 0, 177N, 815W, 25, 1005, DB
are we sure this thing is dead? lol
I think Betsy was 1965. I was in Norway, getting ready to go into the Army here.
Long post!
The pressure makes me want to reconsider that this thing is dead. We know that 94L has always had a problem with convection anyways. Idk...I'm still fairly certain it will not survive.
Not dropping, just stalled. I've seen it before. That said, 3 identical readings in a row could be fishy as well. We'll see what the next hourly report brings in about 25 minutes.
94L is RIP
We'll see what it does during diurnal maximum tonight, but it has quite a long way to go.
1005mb is the equivalent of a 40mph TS or a TD at least. 94L is weird.
The Fat Ballerina takes a lotta time to gather dem arms in and twirl
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