Caribbean disturbance 94L dumping heavy rains on Jamaica
A large, wet, and disorganized tropical disturbance (Invest 94L) continues to spread heavy rain to the Central Caribbean near Jamaica. Rain has fallen continuously at Jamaica's Kingston Norman Manley Airport since midnight, with 1.89" having fallen from midnight to noon local time. Sustained winds of 24 mph also affected Kingston between 7am and 8am this morning. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts of 1.4" per hour occurred in ocean regions 100 miles to the southeast of Kingston this morning, and heavy rains of up to 1/2" per hour are probably affecting portions of Jamaica early this afternoon, judging by the recent increase in heavy thunderstorm activity seen on visible satellite loops. This imagery also shows a slow increase in organization of 94L in recent hours, with spiral bands beginning to develop to the southeast of the center. There is a broad, poorly-defined circulation apparent that is not well enough defined to make 94L a tropical depression. Water vapor satellite loops show a region of dry air on the west side of 94L, and this dry air is interfering with the storm's organization. However, upper air balloon soundings from Kingston and the Cayman Islands taken at 8am EDT this morning show much moister air at mid levels of the atmosphere compared to Saturday (2% humidity at 500 mb on Saturday, compared to 49% this morning at Grand Cayman), and 94L appears to be gradually overcoming its dry air issues. Wind shear remains in the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots, and is predicted by the SHIPS model to remain below 20 knots through Tuesday morning. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 28 - 28.5°C, which is 2°C above the threshold needed to support development of a tropical storm.
Figure 1. Rainfall rates of up to 1.4" per hour (pink colors) were estimated by the F-15 satellite for 94L at 6:02am EDT Jun 5, 2011.
Since 94L is so large and is battling dry air, it is taking its sweet time to develop, and today's mission by the Hurricane Hunters has been cancelled. A new mission is scheduled for Monday afternoon at 2pm EDT. This morning's 06Z model runs are pretty unimpressed with 94L, with most of them showing little or no development. At 2pm EDT on Sunday, NHC gave the disturbance a 40% of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. If 94L stays to the south, its chances of development are greater, since a band of very high wind shear of 30 - 50 knots lies over Cuba and the southern Bahama Islands. The disturbance is expected to meander slowly westward or northward over the next two days, with Jamaica and southeastern Cuba being the primary targets for very heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches through Tuesday. Haiti and Central Cuba can expect somewhat lesser rains of 3 - 6 inches. If 94L does develop into a tropical depression and moves northwards over Cuba by Wednesday, I don't see the storm attaining hurricane strength, due to the high wind shear. The primary threat from 94L will be very heavy rains, capable of causing life-threatening flash flooding.
Figure 2. Afternoon satellite image of the Central Caribbean disturbance 94L.
Jeff Masters
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Corrected the spelling LOL
Thanks for posting what you "see" with the picture ...helps novices like me
I know there is a lot going on with 94L but has anyone gave much thought about the possibility of a area of low pressure that may form just north of the Bahamas at the tail end of a frontal system in a week or so. This low pressure system could remain nearly stationary in that area for a few days and may be something to keep a watch out for tropical development.
I can believe it. I LOVE air conditioning! Wow! Unbelievable! Just waiting for the rolling black outs to start though. :( Hope not.
I do not use that Pat I have seen it over and over again the NHC has a system plotted out it mached on sat but the Multiplatform Satellite Surface wind Analysis did not match
That's great. I'm also staying at UAF over the summer to take summer classes and work.
Thank you for those links, Levi. I know what I'm doing with my summer...
Hey! All is well. Just thought I would drop by and post, since things are starting to pick up int the tropics.
Indeed. I doubt the trough will catch it now. It's fully caught in the flow around the southern flank of the eastern U.S. ridge.
*** FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ***
The Meteorological Service has continued the Flash Flood Warning for low-lying and flood-prone areas of St Mary, Portland, St Thomas, St Catherine, Clarendon, Kingston and St Andrew and has extended it to Manchester and St. Elizabeth until 5:00 a.m. tomorrow. A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for all others parishes also until 5:00 a.m. tomorrow.
A FLASH FLOOD WARNING means flooding has been reported or will occur shortly. Motorists and pedestrians should not attempt to cross flooded roadways or other low-lying areas as strong currents are likely. Residents in low-lying areas should be on the alert for rising waters and be ready to move quickly to higher ground.
The Area of Low Pressure over the Caribbean Sea, southwest of Jamaica, has remained almost stationary over the past 24 hours. This area of disturbed weather is expected to persist across the central Caribbean until Tuesday and will continue to influence the weather over the island during the period.
Satellite imagery and RADAR reports indicate that light to moderate, showers affecting sections of most parishes; with moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorm detected especially across eastern and south-central parishes throughout the day.
The forecast is for periods of showers and thunderstorms, which could be heavy at times, to continue to affect most parishes tonight and continuing into early this week.
Fishers and other marine interests are advised to exercise extreme caution, as strong winds and rough sea conditions are expected in the vicinity of showers and thunderstorms.
The Area of Low Pressure now has a medium chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours, and the Meteorological Service will continue to monitor the progress of this system.
pef
Not with the decline in satellite presentation.
Cool! Are you thinking about transferring to a school in the CONUS or maybe following up the physics degrees with a Masters Degree in meteorology?
I don't immediately see anything in a week on the GFS or ECMWF so I'm unsure of what feature you speak of.
This is from what I posted earlier (thoughts are unchanged):
"Satellite imagery shows a strong mid level rotation south of
Jamaica. The RGB imagery is really good for seeing the distinction
between the low level cloud movements and the mid to upper level clouds.
Notice that the surface flow is southwesterly underneath the mid level
center. Going to be interesting to see whether or not this mid level low
can better align itself with the surface center.The upper level
anticyclone is not directly overhead 94L judging from the CIMSS Wind
shear maps. The clockwise flow around the high is producing marginally
favorable upper level conditions. Water vapor imagery shows sinking air
in the vicinity of the system which is helping to inhibit convection on
the western side of the system. Global computer models show that this
upper high may move more to the north and position itself better with
the system over the next couple of days."
Could someone please let me know if we're in diurnal min or max? I'm not talking about the status of the TD-to-be....I'm asking about the mood of the blog.
I am hoping to. It's all a matter of whether it will be financially feasible. I definitely want a degree in meteorology at some point, probably from graduate school. I'm also looking at the possibility of national student exchange to a lower 48 school for one or two semesters, which would not only let me try out the campus at the UAF tuition rate, but possibly take some meteorology-related classes as well.
And to clear up any confusion, eliteforecaster is an alternate account of mine which I haven't used since when I first joined in 2010. The only reason I was using it now is I thought I'd try posting on it and see if it was above the "bad" filter setting since this account had gotten - into the ground by some troll such that my posts weren't even showing on the bad filter.
I'd say the blog has been at DMAX all day.
ROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN JUN 5 2011
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW
PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO.
EVEN THOUGH THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY RECENT CHANGE IN THE ORGANIZATION
OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE
THAT THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT...AND THE LOW WILL LIKELY BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...
OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT DRIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BRENNAN
We'll know the mood of the blog in the next ten minutes or so.
If 94L goes red, the majority will be delighted, and there shall be plenty of 'I told you so's.
If it stays orange, hostility will rule, and the NHC will become public enemy number one.
THANK YOU thank you
you as well Thank you
well I got two people on my side
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN JUN 5 2011
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW
PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO.
EVEN THOUGH THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY RECENT CHANGE IN THE ORGANIZATION
OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE
THAT THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT...AND THE LOW WILL LIKELY BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...
OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT DRIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED
ABOUT 175 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA. WHILE THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS CONCENTRATED MAINLY TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA OF LOWEST SURFACE PRESSURES...SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS LARGE DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE
...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM MONDAY AFTERNOON...IF
NECESSARY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI AND JAMAICA AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
lol yes. FSU is a great school and a lot of notable people have graduated from there and lead successful careers.
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHWESTERN LIBERTY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
* UNTIL 715 PM CDT
* AT 625 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CROSBY...OR 8 MILES NORTH
OF BARRETT...AND MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IN THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT
LIMITED TO CROSBY...LAKE HOUSTON DAM...BUSH-INTERCONTINENTAL
AIRPORT...SHELDON...HUMBLE...CLOVERLEAF AND CHANNELVIEW.
Cue the NHC hate...
Seems it's been one rung up the ladder a day. Heading into darkness tonight much more robust than last.
Need some recon flight data to see how tight the circulation is, but based on the RGB images, it appears to be getting better. Center appears to be around 16.5N, 80W.
thank you too
well that would be three people
Tomorrow will be it's best chance, kind of make or break.
Ha, yeah. Strangely the first thing that comes to mind about my time at FSU is... all the fun I had! Then again, I didn't major in math intensive subjects so my weekends were clear. But for sure, since graduation its been a downhill slope with regards to having "fun." Man oh man I miss fsu life !
Here in SW Houston, got about 1/3 of an inch, a little to the west of here they got 2+ inches near Fulshear.
Hey Drak! Great to see you back on here! Invest 94L is a persistent little cuss, eh? Glad to hear all is well with you. You gonna be here regularly during the season?
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