Caribbean disturbance 94L dumping heavy rains on Jamaica
A large, wet, and disorganized tropical disturbance (Invest 94L) continues to spread heavy rain to the Central Caribbean near Jamaica. Rain has fallen continuously at Jamaica's Kingston Norman Manley Airport since midnight, with 1.89" having fallen from midnight to noon local time. Sustained winds of 24 mph also affected Kingston between 7am and 8am this morning. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts of 1.4" per hour occurred in ocean regions 100 miles to the southeast of Kingston this morning, and heavy rains of up to 1/2" per hour are probably affecting portions of Jamaica early this afternoon, judging by the recent increase in heavy thunderstorm activity seen on visible satellite loops. This imagery also shows a slow increase in organization of 94L in recent hours, with spiral bands beginning to develop to the southeast of the center. There is a broad, poorly-defined circulation apparent that is not well enough defined to make 94L a tropical depression. Water vapor satellite loops show a region of dry air on the west side of 94L, and this dry air is interfering with the storm's organization. However, upper air balloon soundings from Kingston and the Cayman Islands taken at 8am EDT this morning show much moister air at mid levels of the atmosphere compared to Saturday (2% humidity at 500 mb on Saturday, compared to 49% this morning at Grand Cayman), and 94L appears to be gradually overcoming its dry air issues. Wind shear remains in the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots, and is predicted by the SHIPS model to remain below 20 knots through Tuesday morning. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 28 - 28.5°C, which is 2°C above the threshold needed to support development of a tropical storm.
Figure 1. Rainfall rates of up to 1.4" per hour (pink colors) were estimated by the F-15 satellite for 94L at 6:02am EDT Jun 5, 2011.
Since 94L is so large and is battling dry air, it is taking its sweet time to develop, and today's mission by the Hurricane Hunters has been cancelled. A new mission is scheduled for Monday afternoon at 2pm EDT. This morning's 06Z model runs are pretty unimpressed with 94L, with most of them showing little or no development. At 2pm EDT on Sunday, NHC gave the disturbance a 40% of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. If 94L stays to the south, its chances of development are greater, since a band of very high wind shear of 30 - 50 knots lies over Cuba and the southern Bahama Islands. The disturbance is expected to meander slowly westward or northward over the next two days, with Jamaica and southeastern Cuba being the primary targets for very heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches through Tuesday. Haiti and Central Cuba can expect somewhat lesser rains of 3 - 6 inches. If 94L does develop into a tropical depression and moves northwards over Cuba by Wednesday, I don't see the storm attaining hurricane strength, due to the high wind shear. The primary threat from 94L will be very heavy rains, capable of causing life-threatening flash flooding.
Figure 2. Afternoon satellite image of the Central Caribbean disturbance 94L.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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remember this is an active time period for posting so please no meaningless posts lol
Houston, Texas
Temperature
106.0 °F
Feels Like 113 °F
Bwwwhahaaaa-hahaaa!! and THAT was your FIRST post??
I am called many things, but definitely not anything with a cutesy avatar!
Link
just click the camera, looks quite windy
LOL
Obviously a person who has been here a while under a different name to know who TropicalAmanda is. ;)
Yep, your avatar is cute, but not cutesy.
We need to organize a statewide rain dance. Hey, and we even have real Indians here :-)
But thats obviously not the case..
-I HIGHLY DOUBT THAT-
wumail me and PROVE it
Would less shear in the epac also be a reason? Shear seems to be a very frequently cited reason for lack of development in the Atlantic, but I usually don't see that being the case in the epac. Is my assumption true, or is shear about equal in both basins?
Also, why does the epac have ne winds meeting sw winds, while the Atlantic has se winds meeting ne winds?
Golden sunlight slanting in from the west, and a big black Monster cloud rumbling away in the East.
Incredible sky overhead
Tropical Bliss.!
aaaaahhhhhh!
The more I look at this loop, the more I'm thinking that COC has relocated to near 17.1N/77W, it is becoming more pronounced all time and I just don't see the spin at 16.2/79 anymore?
So mrsenseofhumor, what do you think of 94L?
Getting there, that's for sure. 94L should make a solid run tonight..
That's still mid-level. Look at 79.5W-80W and 17.4N. That's where the most pronounced low-level spin is in the low-level cumulus.
I'd be shocked if it isn't a TD by Tuesday.
I am glad I am not the only one. That certainly doesn't look like a mid-level to me. I know that even the pros think it is further out there, but I really do think the Center of Circulation is where I have said it is all day. If anyone can give a good argument (in the literal sense) as to why this may not be the case I am listening. If not I will do a blog on this whole thing.
SSD has the low at 17.1N 79.1W
I do see a spin there and it is now covered.
DRAK! You're back. I hope you don't mind me calling you Drak?
And I'm beatin' the flak
Nobody's gonna get me on another rap
Anyone know if the tropical number index has changed?
Wow
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