Caribbean disturbance 94L dumping heavy rains on Jamaica
A large, wet, and disorganized tropical disturbance (Invest 94L) continues to spread heavy rain to the Central Caribbean near Jamaica. Rain has fallen continuously at Jamaica's Kingston Norman Manley Airport since midnight, with 1.89" having fallen from midnight to noon local time. Sustained winds of 24 mph also affected Kingston between 7am and 8am this morning. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts of 1.4" per hour occurred in ocean regions 100 miles to the southeast of Kingston this morning, and heavy rains of up to 1/2" per hour are probably affecting portions of Jamaica early this afternoon, judging by the recent increase in heavy thunderstorm activity seen on visible satellite loops. This imagery also shows a slow increase in organization of 94L in recent hours, with spiral bands beginning to develop to the southeast of the center. There is a broad, poorly-defined circulation apparent that is not well enough defined to make 94L a tropical depression. Water vapor satellite loops show a region of dry air on the west side of 94L, and this dry air is interfering with the storm's organization. However, upper air balloon soundings from Kingston and the Cayman Islands taken at 8am EDT this morning show much moister air at mid levels of the atmosphere compared to Saturday (2% humidity at 500 mb on Saturday, compared to 49% this morning at Grand Cayman), and 94L appears to be gradually overcoming its dry air issues. Wind shear remains in the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots, and is predicted by the SHIPS model to remain below 20 knots through Tuesday morning. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 28 - 28.5°C, which is 2°C above the threshold needed to support development of a tropical storm.
Figure 1. Rainfall rates of up to 1.4" per hour (pink colors) were estimated by the F-15 satellite for 94L at 6:02am EDT Jun 5, 2011.
Since 94L is so large and is battling dry air, it is taking its sweet time to develop, and today's mission by the Hurricane Hunters has been cancelled. A new mission is scheduled for Monday afternoon at 2pm EDT. This morning's 06Z model runs are pretty unimpressed with 94L, with most of them showing little or no development. At 2pm EDT on Sunday, NHC gave the disturbance a 40% of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. If 94L stays to the south, its chances of development are greater, since a band of very high wind shear of 30 - 50 knots lies over Cuba and the southern Bahama Islands. The disturbance is expected to meander slowly westward or northward over the next two days, with Jamaica and southeastern Cuba being the primary targets for very heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches through Tuesday. Haiti and Central Cuba can expect somewhat lesser rains of 3 - 6 inches. If 94L does develop into a tropical depression and moves northwards over Cuba by Wednesday, I don't see the storm attaining hurricane strength, due to the high wind shear. The primary threat from 94L will be very heavy rains, capable of causing life-threatening flash flooding.
Figure 2. Afternoon satellite image of the Central Caribbean disturbance 94L.
Jeff Masters
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you got sumpin', but we don't call it magic, heh heh heh j/k
for your information I AM NOT A KID ALTHOUGH MY HANDLE SAYS IT I AM NOT YOU GOT ME MATE
This is for anyone else I believe the Cuban radar caught part of that circulation SE of Jamaica you can just bearly see it
Link
IKE hogs it all... he got rain the last two days...us nada.
Quite smokey today, apparently there are 200,000 acres of fires within a 50-mile radius of Jacksonville. There is also a black bear on the loose in Orange Park ;)
i trad you the heat if you guys want the rain
Every single tropical cyclone in the world needs those conditions met. It is not an Atlantic thing. Atlantic storms have land to deal with when they develop, which often makes it more difficult. The EPAC has the monsoon trough, which has SW winds meeting NE trade winds out of the Caribbean. This setup is much more conducive for cyclonic vorticity than the normal ITCZ that the Atlantic usually has, consisting of NE trades meeting SE trades.
The EPAC also has somewhat less issues with dry air than the Atlantic does, as the semipermanent Texas ridge keeps mid-latitude troughs from invading and depositing dry air into the tropics. The Atlantic also has to deal with dry Saharan dust outbreaks that travel as far west as the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. The EPAC overall does have it easier, but there is no difference in the conditions that have to be met for tropical cyclones to form in either basin.
The topography of the island makes it virtually impossible to see that location using radar.
We have a large fire now burning on the Dade-Broward County line. So yes we need rain badly
As they call me ply or psn, its the same way.
sorry long day
yup and not i want a heat wave
XX/INV/91E
MARK
11.55N/101.2W
Is that a band developing to the west?
XX/INV/94L
MARK
16.79N/77.23W
You can say that again, KID. LOL
Why does the daily lowest pressure occur during day over the ocean? Shouldn't it be during night when the convection is greatest?
funny my mother said the same thing couple of days ago
They call me Ishmael. I don't get it. :|
We just got about 2 1/2 inches of rain in an hour. Wild lightning with it though. It was pretty scary around here. Thank goodness for surge protectors!
Don't get so Mobey on us. It is too late in the day. They call me Yosarian. See if you catch that.
That's not weather or hurricane related.
HAHAHAHA Gotcha :)
102 F
what did gfdl show
:(
Had to look it up. Never read that book.
remember this is an active time period for posting so please no meaningless posts lol
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