CSU predicts a very active hurricane season: 16 storms, 9 hurricanes
A very active Atlantic hurricane season is on tap for 2011, according to the seasonal hurricane forecast issued June 1 by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). The CSU team is calling for 16 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 166% of average. Between 1950 - 2000, the average season had 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. But since 1995, the beginning of an active hurricane period in the Atlantic, we've averaged 14 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes per year. The new forecast is identical to their April forecast. The forecast calls for a much above-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (48% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (47% chance, 30% chance is average). The risk of a major hurricane in the Caribbean is also high, at 61% (42% is average.)
The forecasters cited four main reasons for an active season:
1) Neutral to weak La Niña conditions are expected during the most active portion of this year's hurricane season (August-October). This should lead to average to below average levels of vertical wind shear.
2) Above average May sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic.
3) Below average surface pressures during May in the tropical Atlantic.
4) We are in the midst of a multi-decadal era of major hurricane activity, which began in 1995. Major hurricanes cause 80-85 percent of normalized hurricane damage.
Analogue years
The CSU team picked five previous years when atmospheric and oceanic conditions were similar to what we are seeing this year: neutral to weak La Niña conditions in the equatorial Eastern Pacific, and above-average tropical Atlantic and far north Atlantic SSTs during April - May. Those five years were 2008, which featured Hurricane Ike and Hurricane Gustav; 1996, which had two hurricanes that hit North Carolina, Fran and Bertha; 1989, which featured Category 5 Hurricane Hugo; 1981, a very average year with 12 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes; and 1951, a year that featured 6 major hurricanes. The mean activity for these five years was 12 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes.
How accurate are the June forecasts?
The June forecasts by the CSU team between 1998 and 2009 had a skill 19% - 30% higher than a "no-skill" climatology forecast for number of named storms, number of hurricanes, and the ACE index (Figure 1). This is a decent amount of skill for a seasonal forecast, and these June forecasts can be useful to businesses such as the insurance industry and oil and gas industry that need to make bets on how active the coming hurricane season will be. Unfortunately, the CSU June 1 forecasts do poorly at forecasting the number of major hurricanes (only 3% skill), and major hurricanes cause 80% - 85% of all hurricane damage (normalized to current population and wealth levels.) This year's June forecast uses a brand new formula never tried before, so there is no way to evaluate its performance. An Excel spreadsheet of their forecast skill (expressed as a mathematical correlation coefficient) show values from 0.41 to 0.62 for their June forecasts made between 1984 and 2010, which is respectable.
Figure 1. Comparison of the percent improvement over climatology for May and August seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 1999-2009 (May) and 1998-2009 (August), using the Mean Squared Error. Image credit: Verification of 12 years of NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts, National Hurricane Center.
Figure 2. Comparison of the percent improvement in mean square error over climatology for seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 2001-2010, using the Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS). The figure shows the results using two different climatologies: a fixed 50-year (1950 - 1999) climatology, and a 2001 - 2010 climatology. Skill is poor for forecasts issued in December and April, moderate for June forecasts, and good for August forecasts. Image credit: Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.
TSR predicts 25% more activity than normal
Expect the Atlantic hurricane season to be about 25% more active than usual, the British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) said in their pre-season forecast issued on May 24. TSR calls for 14.2 named storms, 7.6 hurricanes, 3.6 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 124, which is 22% above average. Their May 24 forecast numbers are very close to their previous forecast issued in April. TSR predicts a moderate 55% chance that activity will rank in the top 1/3 of years historically, and a 59% chance that U.S. landfalling activity will be above average. TSR rates their skill level as 16-25% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology, though an independent assessment by the National Hurricane Center (Figure 1) gives them somewhat lower skill numbers.
TSR projects that 4.4 named storms will hit the U.S., with 1.9 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2010 climatology are 3.1 named storms and 1.5 hurricanes. They rate their skill at making these June forecasts for U.S. landfalls at 7 - 11% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 1.3 named storms, 0.6 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.
TSR cites two main factors for their forecast of an active season:
1) Their model predicts that sea surface temperatures will be 0.11°C warmer than average in August and September over the Main Development Region (MDR) for Atlantic hurricanes. They define this as the area between 10°N and 20°N, between the coast of Africa and Lesser Antilles Islands (20°W and 60°W). It is called the Main Development Region because virtually all African waves originate in this region. These African waves account for 85% of all Atlantic major hurricanes and 60% of all named storms. When SSTs in the MDR are much above average during hurricane season, a very active season typically results (if there is no El Niño event present.)
2) Their model predicts slower than normal trade winds in August and September over the Main Development Region (MDR). Trade winds are forecast to be 0.19 meters per second (about 0.4 mph) slower than average. This would create more spin for developing storms, and allow the oceans to warm up, due to reduced mixing of cold water from the depths and lower evaporational cooling.
FSU predicts a very active hurricane season: 17 named storms
The Florida State University (FSU) Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) issued their third annual Atlantic hurricane season forecast today. This year's forecast calls for a 70% probability of 14-20 named storms and 8-10 hurricanes. The mean forecast is for 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of 163. They cite warm tropical North Atlantic sea surface temperatures, a weakening of La Niña conditions, and the ongoing positive phase of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation as the major factors influencing their forecast.
Other seasonal forecasts
The UK Met Office's Glosea4 model is predicting a moderately more active season than normal, with 13 named storms and a ACE index of 151. The Cuba Institute of Meteorology is calling for 13 named storms and 7 hurricanes. NOAA predicts 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4.5 intense hurricanes. Pennsylvania State University predicts 16 named storms.
A surprise tropical disturbance for Florida
The Atlantic hurricane season is officially underway, and Mother Nature appears to be taking her cue from the calendar, as we have a surprise storm off the coast of Florida that is a threat to develop into a tropical depression later this week, after it crosses Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. An cluster of thunderstorms called a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) pushed across southern New England early yesterday, emerged over the ocean, and rotated clockwise towards Florida, steered by a large high pressure system centered over Kentucky. The center of the disturbance stayed over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, a region of low pressure developed, and intense thunderstorms began to build yesterday afternoon. Early this morning, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) designated the disturbance Invest 93L, and gave it a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression. At 8am EDT, they upped those chances to 30%. Invest 93L is becoming increasingly organized, with Melbourne, Florida radar showing the beginnings of some rotation, with a solid band of heavy rain on the southwest side of the disturbance. The pressure and winds have leveled out at Buoy 41012, 40 nm ENE of St. Augustine, Florida. Winds peaked at 19 mph, gusting to 22 mph, at 10:50am EDT. Satellite imagery shows a small but intensifying region of thunderstorms. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are about 26°C (79°F) off the east coast of Florida, which is just warm enough to support formation of a tropical depression, and about 0.5°C above average. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots, and it is likely that 93L will continue intensifying until it makes landfall over Central Florida this afternoon. A 50-mile wide swath of Florida from Daytona Beach to just north of Tampa can expect 1 - 3 inches of rain from 93L as it tracks over the state this afternoon and tonight. A Windsat pass this morning did not show a closed circulation, and I doubt 93L has enough time to develop into a tropical depression before landfall in Florida. The coast between Daytona Beach and Cocoa Beach could see wind gusts of 25 - 35 mph this afternoon, though.
Figure 3. Afternoon radar image of 93L from the Melbourne, Florida radar.
Fate of 93L once in the Gulf of Mexico
Since 93L is expected to continue its rapid west-southwest motion at 15 - 20 mph through Thursday, it will cross the Florida Peninsula in about 12 hours and emerge over the Gulf of Mexico early Thursday morning. It is possible that the passage over Florida will greatly disrupt 93L, since it is such a small system. I give a 40% chance that the storm will see its peak strength this afternoon, and not significantly regenerate over the Gulf of Mexico. However, the latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, as 93L moves westwards over the Gulf of Mexico Thursday and Friday. SSTs in the Gulf are about 27°C (81°F), 0.5 - 1.0°C above average, and it is possible that 93L could gain enough strength to become Tropical Depression One as it crosses the Gulf. Since 93L will be moving parallel to the coast a short distance offshore, it is difficult to predict where the storm might make a second landfall, since a slight change in heading will make a large difference in landfall location. I don't expect widespread heavy rains from 93L along the Gulf Coast, since the storm is so small, but some locations close to the coast could receive 2 - 4 inches as 93L brushes by. Heavier rains are possible at the eventual landfall location. Since 93L is so small, the computer models are having trouble seeing the system, and are not very helpful forecasting the behavior of the storm over the Gulf of Mexico. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to fly into 93L Thursday afternoon at 2pm EDT, if necessary.
Central Caribbean disturbance
Moisture and heavy thunderstorm activity continues to slowly increase in the region between Central America and Jamaica, and wind shear is falling. With wind shear now 20 - 30 knots, we can expect this disturbance to show increased organization today, and recent satellite images show the beginnings of a surface circulation trying to get going about 100 miles off the coast of Northeast Nicaragua. All of the computer models predict that an area of low pressure will form in this region by Thursday, and this low will have the potential to develop into a tropical depression late this week or early next week. A surge of moisture accompanying a tropical wave currently south of Hispaniola may aid development when the wave arrives in the Western Caribbean on Thursday. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 29°C, which is plenty warm enough to support development of a tropical storm. Residents of Jamaica, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Haiti, Honduras, and Nicaragua should anticipate the possibility that heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches may affect them Thursday through Saturday this week.
Figure 4. Satellite image of the Central Caribbean disturbance.
Catch my intro to the 2011 hurricane season on Internet radio
I'll be discussing the coming hurricane season on our Internet radio show, the Daily Downpour, tomorrow (Thursday) at 4:30pm EDT. Fellow wunderground meteorologists Shaun Tanner and Tim Roche will be hosting the show. We'll talk about the latest model runs, hurricane research, modeling accuracy, and hurricane climatology, and answer any questions listeners email in or call in. The email address to ask questions is broadcast@wunderground.com. Welcome to the hurricane season of 2011!
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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What's that near Puerto Rico?
We dont need more rain than what has fallen in the past 4 weeks.
Live Stream coverage NECN with some damage footage in Springfield.
http://www.necn.com/
Link
Amazing footage of a tornado by springfield.(tower cam)
Link
From i191 as it touched down in springfield, unreal.
Link
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
614 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2011
MAC013-015-027-012300-
/O.CON.KBOX.TO.W.0008.000000T0000Z-110601T2300Z/
WORCESTER MA-HAMPSHIRE MA-HAMPDEN MA-
614 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2011
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EDT FOR EASTERN
HAMPDEN...SOUTHEASTERN HAMPSHIRE AND CENTRAL WORCESTER COUNTIES...
AT 609 PM EDT...UTILITY OFFICIAL REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO
WAS LOCATED IN WESTFIELD...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. THIS IS A VERY
DANGEROUS SITUATION.
OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO EAST
LONGMEADOW...GRANBY...LUDLOW...WILBRAHAM...HAMPDE N...BELCHERTOWN...
PALMER...MONSON...WALES...WARE...BRIMFIELD...WARR EN...WEST
BROOKFIELD...NEW BRAINTREE...BROOKFIELD...STURBRIDGE...NORTH
BROOKFIELD...SOUTHBRIDGE...EAST BROOKFIELD...SPENCER AND CHARLTON
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
DO NOT USE HIGHWAY OVERPASSES FOR SHELTER. OVERPASSES DO NOT PROVIDE
PROTECTION FROM TORNADIC WINDS. VEHICLES STOPPED UNDER BRIDGES BLOCK
TRAFFIC AND PREVENT PEOPLE FROM GETTING OUT OF THE STORM`S PATH AND
TO SHELTER. IF YOU CANNOT DRIVE AWAY FROM THE TORNADO...GET OUT OF
YOUR VEHICLE AND LIE FLAT IN A DITCH AS A LAST RESORT.
IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY REINFORCED
BUILDING. AS A LAST RESORT...SEEK SHELTER IN A CULVERT...DITCH OR LOW
SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.
&&
LAT...LON 4236 7195 4205 7193 4207 7274 4225 7277
TIME...MOT...LOC 2213Z 263DEG 31KT 4218 7256
--------------------------
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
609 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2011
MAC017-021-027-012230-
/O.CON.KBOX.TO.W.0007.000000T0000Z-110601T2230Z/
MIDDLESEX MA-WORCESTER MA-NORFOLK MA-
609 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2011
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM EDT FOR
NORFOLK...EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN WORCESTER AND EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL
MIDDLESEX COUNTIES...
AT 604 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND STORM
SPOTTERS WERE TRACKING AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO. THIS TORNADO
WAS LOCATED NEAR BELLINGHAM...OR NEAR MILFORD...MOVING EAST AT
35 MPH.
OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
MEDWAY...FRANKLIN...MILLIS...WRENTHAM...NORFOLK.. .MEDFIELD...
FOXBOROUGH...WALPOLE...WESTWOOD...NORWOOD...SHARO N...STOUGHTON...
RANDOLPH...QUINCY...MILTON...HOLBROOK AND CANTON
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR NORTHERN CONNECTICUT AND MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND CENTRAL RHODE ISLAND.
&&
LAT...LON 4203 7130 4206 7154 4223 7152 4224 7121
4225 7114 4223 7113 4225 7110 4228 7103
4228 7101 4213 7100
TIME...MOT...LOC 2208Z 265DEG 32KT 4213 7143
Published: Wednesday, June 01, 2011, 5:15 PM
BERLIN — The number of people hit by a massive European outbreak of food borne bacterial infections is one third higher than previously known and a stunningly high number of patients suffer from a potentially deadly complication than can shut down their kidneys, officials said Wednesday.
Springfield tornado damage
more photos at:
http://twitpic.com/photos/TheFalconsAHL
had that problem this morning with the coffee!
Well well well. What do we have here. Ironic this whole setup.
'Towers in the Tempest' is a narrated animation that explains recent scientific insights into how hurricanes intensify. This intensification can be caused by a phenomenon called a 'hot tower'. For the first time, research meteorologists have run complex simulations using a very fine temporal resolution of 3 minutes. Combining this simulation data with satellite observations enables detailed study of 'hot towers'. The science of 'hot towers' is described using: observed hurricane data from a satellite, descriptive illustrations, and volumetric visualizations of simulation data. The first section of the animation shows actual data from Hurricane Bonnie observed by NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) spacecraft. Three dimensional precipitation radar data reveal a strong 'hot tower' in Hurricane Bonnie's internal structure. The second section uses illustrations to show the dynamics of a hurricane and the formation of 'hot towers'. 'Hot towers' are formed as air spirals inward towards the eye and is forced rapidly upwards, accelerating the movement of energy into high altitude clouds. The third section shows these processes using volumetric cloud, wind, and vorticity data from a supercomputer simulation of Hurricane Bonnie. Vertical wind speed data highlights a 'hot tower'. Arrows representing the wind field move rapidly up into the 'hot tower, boosting the energy and intensifying the hurricane. Combining satellite observations with super-computer simulations provides a powerful tool for studying Earth's complex systems.
Huh?
18z GFS
That's a brick built building in the photo if you increase the zoom on it.
It must have taken quite a violent wind blast to do that to it.There is office type equipment inside the ruins.
There's going to be a lot of damage in the area round this place.
This isn't a tropical blog, it's a weather blog, any weather is discussed. I agree with you on the politics front though.
Looks like the Springfield public school system is located there according to google maps.
Link
Fire
Really, is it at the school that is supposedly there?
I hope it goes away, 'cause I don't want any more rain.
Don't you see the pic? The nhc has now listed a 10% chance of development on both the Caribbean and Florida system on the first day of the hurricane season.
I beg to differ. I believe the tornadoes are an imminent danger to life and property here in MA, not some blob of convection in the gulf of mexico. This is very rare here in MA and many are uneducated about supercells. All types of weather are frequently discussed on this blog.
I sure would. NHC doesn't jump the gun on things like this.
It's not a depression just yet IMO, but it did do pretty well in the crossing. Even if it was nearly a depression the NHC would bump the chances at the next TWO before classifying. I expect 30% to be back in an hour's time.
I'm glad its not just me. Lol. Wow. And I think my locals watched that too. Geeeze!
Thought you were going somewhere else with the discussion. My bad. LOL
I was thinking the same thing.
MASS CASUALTY
06/01/11 18:11 (WEST SPRINGFIELD - ) FIRE DEPARTMENT ON SCENE SEVERE DAMAGE FROM A TORNADO, REQUEST MASS CASUALTY INCIDENT AND EMERGENCY MEDICAL SERVICES TASK FORCE ON A RUSH. [NHA057]
Why should we discount a model just because it moves a system out to sea?
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