Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting pottery:

Yeah, I should have qualified my statement..

Haha, no worries. Hindsight tells me I should have clarified my own statement as well.

Quoting aspectre:
319 Levi32 "It happens. Being from the coast I've personally never felt above 75F until these last two weeks here in the interior. Alaska can get much hotter than many realize."

I can see 91F(33C) in very lateJune through earlyAugust -- ie after "nearly all-day sun"s, before too much shortening of daylight -- but this is May.
Don't even get 15hours between sunrise and sunset yet in Fairbanks, do you?

20 hours and 2 minutes of daylight today.

A quick pair of Joplin items: a very telling backyard security camera video, and a steel chair embedded into a concrete wall.

I should have googled first. Fairbanks sunrise 3:48am, sunset 11:58pm.
Only 3hours50minutes of night

Quoting TomTaylor:
can someone explain why that is?

Partly because the WPAC is so warm, the air pressure over that basin is very low during the summer, much lower than over the Atlantic. Wind is generated by pressure gradients, and with a lower average pressure in the WPAC, it takes a lower central pressure in a hurricane to generate the same pressure gradient and thus the same wind speed. For example, compared to a 950mb hurricane in the Atlantic within an environment averaging 1015mb, a WPAC typhoon within an environment averaging 1005mb will have to attain roughly 940mb central pressure in order to generate the same wind speed.

Other factors such as the lack of land masses in the WPAC also contribute, as it allows storms to get quite large, and the larger they are, the slower the wind speed for a given pressure.

Observe the climatological differences between the western Pacific and Atlantic during the summer months:

Quoting KoritheMan:

Likely because the West Pacific is vastly larger, both in terms of areal coverage and in terms of heat content, so the storms that form are generally exponentially larger than those found in the Atlantic. Larger storms take much longer to spin up.

ok thanks, kori

Edit-

Quoting Levi32:


Partly because the WPAC is so warm, the air pressure over that basin is very low during the summer, much lower than over the Atlantic. Wind is generated by pressure gradients, and with a lower average pressure in the WPAC, it takes a lower central pressure in a hurricane to generate the same pressure gradient and thus the same wind speed. For example, compared to a 950mb hurricane in the Atlantic within an environment averaging 1015mb, a WPAC typhoon within an environment averaging 1005mb will have to attain roughly 940mb central pressure in order to generate the same wind speed.

Other factors such as the lack of land masses in the WPAC also contribute, as it allows storms to get quite large, and the larger they are, the slower the wind speed for a given pressure.

Observe the climatological differences between the western Pacific and Atlantic during the summer months:

thank you too, levi

Quoting twincomanche:
Yu need to splain to the unwashed why this is.

If I may..
Picture a round post in the middle of a stream.
How does the water react around the post.
Now picture a flat wall perpendicular in said stream flow.
How does the water pile up in front of wall and eventually over it.

WV Flaring up in Central America....

Some pretty amazing footage of this week's Chickasha, Oklahoma, twister:

Good evening everyone...Ive read we wil be in a neutral ENSO phase for this summer but Ive noticed how the SOI has crashed the past month and that cloudiness near the dateline has increased?? Is it possible a El Nino could form this summer?? Or stay in neutral phase through hurricane season?? Thanks for any input!!

The loop current has been stronger than normal all year so far.

Quoting Levi32:
The loop current has been stronger than normal all year so far.

Pardon my ignorance levi, but I got another question, why is the loop current so important? Does it just distribute heat from the Caribbean to the gulf or is there something else more important going on?

Thanks in advance, I appreciate your responses, its all one big learning experience for me

Quoting stormhank:
Good evening everyone...Ive read we wil be in a neutral ENSO phase for this summer but Ive noticed how the SOI has crashed the past month and that cloudiness near the dateline has increased?? Is it possible a El Nino could form this summer?? Or stay in neutral phase through hurricane season?? Thanks for any input!!

El Nino rarely develops in the year following a La Nina. Even if it were the case, there is a typical lag time of 3 - 5 months regarding the atmospheric response to the observed oceanic conditions.

In short, even if El Nino does develop during the season, it will have very little impact on the basin until the season is essentially done.

Quoting spathy:


If I may..
Picture a round post in the middle of a stream.
How does the water react around the post.
Now picture a flat wall perpendicular in said stream flow.
How does the water pile up in front of wall and eventually over it.

Very Good.

Maybe not even the worst part. Notice how the background trees still have libs, at best that was 140 mph winds.

Quoting Neapolitan:
A quick pair of Joplin items: a very telling backyard security camera video, and a steel chair embedded into a concrete wall.

Quoting Levi32:
The loop current has been stronger than normal all year so far.

?
Are you speaking of the Gulf Of Mexico?
If so.
Didnt the Gulf Loop current Eddy last year just in time to save many from the oil?

But my bigger question is.... what does that mean for season?

Quoting KoritheMan:

El Nino rarely develops in the year following a La Nina. Even if it were the case, there is a typical lag time of 3 - 5 months regarding the atmospheric response to the observed oceanic conditions.

In short, even if El Nino does develop during the season, it will have very little impact on the basin until the season is essentially done.

thanks levi.. I was just remembering how rapidly the 1997 El nino formed

Quoting TomTaylor:
Pardon my ignorance levi, but I got another question, why is the loop current so important? Does it just distribute heat from the Caribbean to the gulf or is there something else more important going on?

Thanks in advance, I appreciate your responses, its all one big learning experience for me

The Loop Current is part of the primary west boundary current of the Atlantic Ocean. Every major ocean basin has boundary currents flowing close to their edges. When the AMO is positive, the meridional overturning circulation is stronger, which means that warm water from the equator is flowing northward at a greater rate. The Loop Current and the Gulf Stream are usually flowing faster than normal under these conditions.

Naturally, a greater flux of warm water into the Gulf of Mexico adds to the overall heat content of the gulf. Additionally, a stronger Loop Current forms a larger loop when it flows faster, as only so much water can leave the gulf through the Florida Straights. This provides a larger eddy of warm water for gulf hurricanes to feed off of, as a few of the famous 2005 hurricanes did, most notably Katrina and Rita.

Quoting stormhank:
thanks levi.. I was just remembering how rapidly the 1997 El nino formed

You mean Kori...lol.

Quoting stormhank:
thanks levi.. I was just remembering how rapidly the 1997 El nino formed

that was KoritheMan:

Quoting stormhank:
Good evening everyone...Ive read we wil be in a neutral ENSO phase for this summer but Ive noticed how the SOI has crashed the past month and that cloudiness near the dateline has increased?? Is it possible a El Nino could form this summer?? Or stay in neutral phase through hurricane season?? Thanks for any input!!

I'd say it is possible. ESPI is -1.19. It's averaged around -.90 over the last 2 months. That should bring us to or near El Nino. Fallen off again the last few days, if the trend holds or even just stays this low a few more weeks it would seem definite.

Atmosphere lags so the effects of neutral should be felt atleast to peak 'cane season.

Quoting spathy:


?
Are you speaking of the Gulf Of Mexico?
If so.
Didnt the Gulf Loop current Eddy last year just in time to save many from the oil?

But my bigger question is.... what does that mean for season?

The Loop Current became quite weak last year, and was nearly non-existent during the hurricane season. That's what saved the oil. This year, it appears that it should remain strong, and that leaves a bigger "puddle" of warm water for hurricanes to feed off of. That is obviously not great news, but it is typical of the warm AMO era that we have been in since 1995.

Quoting stormhank:
thanks levi.. I was just remembering how rapidly the 1997 El nino formed

The polar vortex of '97 was likely a precursor to the huge El Nino that followed. After a really slow start to winter this year & the atmosphere expanded, so that once the vortex raged it did so comparable to '97..another reason it's hard to say El Nino conditions even briefly this year aren't possible.

Quoting Skyepony:


I'd say it is possible. ESPI is -1.19. It's averaged around -.90 over the last 2 months. That should bring us to or near El Nino. Fallen off again the last few days, if the trend holds or even just stays this low a few more weeks it would seem definite.

Atmosphere lags so the effects of neutral should be felt atleast to peak 'cane season.

I still kind of doubt it. I seem to recall the models calling for El Nino in 2008 as well, but the PDO was negative, something they aren't used to. It's really hard to get an El Nino off of a moderate/strong La Nina in the same year when the PDO is cold. I have a feeling this year will follow history and stay neutralish and perhaps resume a weak La Nina this fall/winter.

CFS from May, 2008:

If anything forms across the caribbean it will be some half-baked STC/TC that will be sheared from the sw & w and battle dry air entrainment from the west. Can't rule out a 35-40 kt TS, but conditions won't be favoable for much more than that...if it forms at all. This system will be induced by the right-rear quad of a mod/stg anticyclonically curved upper-level jet, and the RR quad is the most divergent portion of the jet max, and that will act to drop sfc pressures across the western Carib Sea. HOWEVER...those 35-50 kt swly 200 mb winds will create very unfavorable/hostile wind shear conditions that will prevent significant TC development from occurring.

Quoting Neapolitan:
A quick pair of Joplin items: a very telling backyard security camera video, and a steel chair embedded into a concrete wall.

Fantastic video there.
That's scary stuff, which I hope never to see in real life...

Quoting jasonweatherman2010:
wow!! something going on next to 98 west!!

and look at the one this is showing looks interesting this run


Link

Quoting Levi32:


The Loop Current is part of the primary west boundary current of the Atlantic Ocean. Every major ocean basin has boundary currents flowing close to their edges. When the AMO is positive, the meridional overturning circulation is stronger, which means that warm water from the equator is flowing northward at a greater rate. The Loop Current and the Gulf Stream are usually flowing faster than normal under these conditions.

Naturally, a greater flux of warm water into the Gulf of Mexico adds to the overall heat content of the gulf. Additionally, a stronger Loop Current forms a larger loop when it flows faster, as only so much water can leave the gulf through the Florida Straights. This provides a larger eddy of warm water for gulf hurricanes to feed off of, as a few of the famous 2005 hurricanes did, most notably Katrina and Rita.

plus 1 thanks.

Btw, sorry to keep on bugging you levi, but you're in college perusing some sort of degree in meteorology, right? What type of degree are you going for ecactly? How's that going? How many years in are you?

I am just curious since I am considering perusing something related in meteorology since I find it so fascinating.

Quoting Levi32:


The Loop Current became quite weak last year, and was nearly non-existent during the hurricane season. That's what saved the oil. This year, it appears that it should remain strong, and that leaves a bigger "puddle" of warm water for hurricanes to feed off of. That is obviously not great news, but it is typical of the warm AMO era that we have been in since 1995.

Thanks Levi
I was thinking part of loop current.
You were speaking of the larger picture.

Levi~ even your model there has trended up with the ensemble mean up to weak El Nino conditions for Aug & maybe Sept. Though I take them with a grain of salt as well. Overall, they are all over the place & spring is their worst time of year. Climo is about the only thing I see giving us a chance to slide back in La Nina for next winter.

Quoting TomTaylor:
1 thanks.

Btw, sorry to keep on bugging you levi, but you're in college perusing some sort of degree in meteorology, right? What type of degree are you going for ecactly? How's that going? How many years in are you?

I am just curious since I am considering perusing something related in meteorology since I find it so fascinating.

I can't afford a lower 48 school with a meteorology program, at least right now, so I'm majoring in physics here at UAF. I have finished my freshman year, and will start my sophomore year in the fall. It's going pretty well, but I do get quite frustrated from time to time that I can't actually do what I want. I read about the MET labs that schools do for classes and it just makes my mouth water. Life isn't fair.

Quoting Skyepony:
Levi~ even your model there has trended up with the ensemble mean up to weak El Nino conditions for Aug & maybe Sept. Though I take them with a grain of salt as well. Overall, they are all over the place & spring is their worst time of year. Climo is about the only thing I see giving us a chance to slide back in La Nina for next winter.

The CFS showed El Nino for about 10 days, but it's back down now. As you say, the models are all but useless during the spring. It's usually anybody's guess. I think it's more likely that the multidecadal signal will win out here, but we'll see.

As Mississippi River recedes, flood warning lifted for New Orleans
Published: Friday, May 27, 2011, 8:44 PM

Based on a drop in the level of the swollen Mississippi River, the National Weather Service on Friday canceled its weeks-long flood warning for New Orleans and points downriver.



Despite this development for south Louisiana, the weather service's flood warning remains in effect for points upriver, including Baton Rouge, where levee seepage has led the state Office of Transportation and Development to close River Road's southbound lane from North Third Street to State Capitol Drive.

In New Orleans, the river's flood stage is 17 feet, but the weather service saw no reason to maintain the flood warning as the Mississippi's level dropped to 16.8 feet, where it is expected to stay through Monday before dropping another 0.1 foot on Tuesday, said Jeff Graschel, service coordination hydrologist for the weather service.

There are several reasons for the change, he said, including falling levels upstream and the Bonnet Carre and Morganza spillways ability to divert some of the flow.

As a result of these factors, Graschel said, we're going to keep (the water level) right below flood stage.

The levee system in New Orleans protects the city from water levels as high as 20 feet.

The weather service issued the flood warning for New Orleans on May 5.

Even though turbulent weather has torn through the Midwest, with downpours that increased the amount of water in the Mississippi's tributaries, there won't be enough extra water to make the river rise again in south Louisiana, Graschel said.

But, he said, it will reduce the rate at which the river recedes, an event expected sometime next month.

The Bonnet Carre Spillway diverts water into Lake Pontchartrain, and the Morganza Floodway shunts it into the Atchafalaya River.

No bays at either site were closed Friday, according to the Corps of Engineers. At Bonnet Carre, 330 of the 350 bays are open, and 12 of the Morganza's 25 are open.

Five Morganza bays were closed earlier this week, and the flow rate was reduced.

This, in turn, led the weather service to reduce the highest levels it had predicted for cities and towns along the floodway.

For instance, the revised crest at Butte La Rose is expected to be 23.3 feet, down 0.2 feet nearly 2 1/2 inches from the previous expectation.

Although the threat to south Louisiana may seem to be abating, the Corps of Engineers declared the Bonnet Carre Spillway closed to recreation, including boating, until June 26.

Besides being unsafe and unwise, both organizations said going there could be expensive, with maximum penalties of a $50,000 fine and five years in prison.

Going into that area is dangerous because of the swift current water is flowing toward Lake Pontchartrain at 293,000 cubic feet per second and the debris that can get carried along in the torrent.

The damage that this combination can inflict was seen on the railroad bridge in the Bonnet Carre Spillway, where a supporting pier was dislodged. As a result, the legendary City of New Orleans train could get no closer than Hammond to its namesake city, with buses carrying passengers between that city and New Orleans.

The bridge has been repaired.

In Washington, the state's members of the House of Representatives on Friday called on President Barack Obama and the House Appropriations Committee to ensure adequate dredging of Louisiana rivers and increased protection of levee systems.

Citing the rash of flooding and tornadoes, Rep. Cedric Richmond, D-New Orleans, said: we do not invest in our rivers and levees, we will see more destruction. We can stop this. We can correct the course.

Because the flooding has weakened levees and built up sediment in the river,this must be swiftly addressed in any upcoming emergency-response legislation, said Rep. Steve Scalise, R-Jefferson.

John Pope can be reached at jpope@timespicayune.com or 504.826.3317.

That Joplin video was insane. Reminds me of the board through the tire pic up top. Like things got blended together. That whole thing where people see wavy walls in bad tornadoes fascinates me. Things end up like they shouldn't be but like they grew there or things separated & got put back wrong. Tragic but almost a hole in the fabric of time.

I usually don't post but rather just lurk.I have a question though that hopefully you guys can answer. I am sitting here watching the weather channel in Fort Myers, Fl and our local forecast says 50% chance of storms tomorrow but when I go on NOAA it only says 30% chance. I have been noticing this alot lately and am wondering which is a better resource to trust. I would think NOAA but would like other opinions.. Thanks in advance

It's "facebook official" from the NWS office's FB page:

"The high temperature this afternoon at the Fairbanks International Airport was 85 degrees! The broke the record high of 82 degrees, which was set last year. The high of 85 degrees is the warmest temperature observed at Fairbanks during the month of May since 1995! Although very warm, it fell well shy of the all-time record for the month of May of 90 degrees, which occurred on May 28, 1947"

Quoting driftwoodswfl:
I usually don't post but rather just lurk.I have a question though that hopefully you guys can answer. I am sitting here watching the weather channel in Fort Myers, Fl and our local forecast says 50% chance of storms tomorrow but when I go on NOAA it only says 30% chance. I have been noticing this alot lately and am wondering which is a better resource to trust. I would think NOAA but would like other opinions.. Thanks in advance

In my experience, the local NWS forecasts are the most accurate, such as the ones you can find on this site.

CRESSONA - Twice this week in Schuylkill County, Mother Nature did her version of the twist.

After a 95-mph EF-1 tornado hit Walker Township on Monday evening, a 110 mph EF-1 tornado uprooted trees, knocked down power lines and damaged more than 20 homes along an 18-mile swath from Cressona to West Penn Township on Thursday night, according to Bruce W. Budd, meteorologist in charge of the Central PA Weather Forecast Office of the National Weather Service in State College.

"Damage was pretty extensive. Four of those homes had major damage. There were a dozen barns and outbuildings that were also damaged," Greg DeVoir, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service, said Friday evening.

The tornado touched down a half mile west of Cressona at 8:15 p.m. Thursday. It bobbed up and touched down numerous times as it continued east. It was 200 yards wide at its greatest width. Its path ended at Leibeyville in West Penn Township at 8:35 p.m., DeVoir said.

As of 6:15 p.m. Friday, 5,051 PPL customers remained without electrical service in the county. Cressona Borough has the most with 1394 without service; West Brunswick Township had 902 and East Brunswick Township 765.

For more information, read Saturday's edition of The Republican-Herald.

Link

Quoting Levi32:


In my experience, the local NWS forecasts are the most accurate, such as the ones you can find on this site.

Thanks Levi

Quoting Levi32:


I can't afford a lower 48 school with a meteorology program, at least right now, so I'm majoring in physics here at UAF. I have finished my freshman year, and will start my sophomore year in the fall. It's going pretty well, but I do get quite frustrated from time to time that I can't actually do what I want. I read about the MET labs that schools do for classes and it just makes my mouth water. Life isn't fair.

wow I would have never known you werent taking met classes at college. Are you taking online classes somewhere or where did you learn so damn much? I'm sorry about your financial situation, but I guarantee 95% of the people's mouth on here water when they hear the knowledge you spit out, wishing they new a fraction of what you knew...or maybe that's just me?

Either way, its impassive how much you know considering you aren't taking college classes, keep up your good work, and I hope you can soon afford an education in the lower 48 :)

Quoting driftwoodswfl:
I usually don't post but rather just lurk.I have a question though that hopefully you guys can answer. I am sitting here watching the weather channel in Fort Myers, Fl and our local forecast says 50% chance of storms tomorrow but when I go on NOAA it only says 30% chance. I have been noticing this alot lately and am wondering which is a better resource to trust. I would think NOAA but would like other opinions.. Thanks in advance

Should I know you?

00Z

Levi,check post 20 about the Gulf of Guinea.What do you think of that?

good evening friends.

Good reading back, excellent Q n A.