Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Invest now to improve tornado warnings; an early start to hurricane season?

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:24 PM GMT en Mayo 27, 2011

The Atlantic hurricane season officially begin on Wednesday, June 1, and recent computer model runs predict that we may have some early-season action in the Central Caribbean Sea to coincide with the start of this year's season. The GFS, NOGAPS, and ECMWF models have all indicated in some of their recent runs that a tropical disturbance may form between Jamaica and Central America sometime in the May 31 - June 2 time frame, as a lobe of the Eastern Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) pushes across Central America into the Caribbean. Up until now, wind shear has been too high to allow tropical storm formation in the Caribbean, due to the presence of the Subtropical Jet Stream. However, this jet is expected to push northwards over Cuba over the coming week, allowing a region of low wind shear to develop over most of the Caribbean. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 29°C, which is plenty warm enough to support development of a tropical storm. The main impediment to development will probably be lack of spin, as we don't have any African tropical waves that are expected to enter the Caribbean Sea next week, to help get things spinning. Stay tuned.

Figure 1. Satellite image of Typhoon Songda.

Typhoon Songda heads for Okinawa and Japan
Typhoon Songda brushed the Philippines yesterday, bringing heavy rains that killed at least two people. Fortunately, the brunt of this year's first Category 5 storm missed the islands, and Songda has weakened slightly to a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds. Songda is turning northwards and will threaten the island of Okinawa on Saturday. Sea surface temperatures decline rapidly north of the Philippines, and Songda is expected to weaken significantly before reaching Okinawa, where sea surface temperatures are approximately 26°C. Wind shear will also increase to high levels by Saturday, and Songda should be at most a Category 2 typhoon by the time it reaches Okinawa. On Sunday,

Invest now for better tornado warnings
National Weather Service forecasters issued a tornado warning 24 minutes in advance of the Joplin, Missouri tornado this.week, which is now being blamed for at least 132 deaths--the deadliest U.S. tornado since at least 1947. However, we can do better, and the National Weather Service Employees Organization (NWSEO) put out a press release on May 23, arguing that investments in weather service forecasting technology are needed to reduce loss of life in future violent tornadoes:

"The 24-minute lead time is a great improvement over the average lead time of 13 minutes for tornado warnings. The meteorologists in the Springfield Weather Forecast Office are commended for their lifesaving work," said Dan Sobien, NWSEO President. "But in our age of advanced technology and communication, when new radars and modeling opportunities exist that can provide more lead time to get people out of the path of a storm, hundreds of people do not have to die because of a tornado event."

Sobien says the Joplin and Tuscaloosa tornadoes are examples of how the government's neglect to invest in NWS related infrastructure over the last 10 to 15 years has failed to provide the tools necessary to protect lives and property. He says that the tools forecasters use to issue tornado warnings are woefully inadequate and that the technology exists to provide lead times so far in advance of the storm that it would make the need for tornado warnings as we know them obsolete. "The much touted Doppler Weather Radar, also known as the Weather Service Radar or WSR-88D, was developed in 1988. Since that time, technological advances, including phased array radars developed by the Department of Defense, have been shown to increase the current lead time on tornado warnings by almost 50 percent."

"The much touted Warn on Forecast process utilizes Meso-scale modeling and has the potential to let forecasters know hours in advance where a thunderstorm would form and if it is likely to contain strong winds, hail, or even a tornado. With adequate staffing, local National Weather Service forecasters who understand local terrain and the model output, could be embedded with emergency managers and decision makers. In the event of a storm, the forecaster could provide emergency managers with the tornado track with some margin of error and people in the way of the storm could be evacuated hours before the tornado hits. This technology is being developed and tested right now, however without funding it will never be available."

"The art and science of severe weather warnings made considerable progress during the 1980s and 90s, going from almost zero lead time to average of about 13 minutes for tornado warnings. However, in recent years, that progress has stalled, even while the technological advancements have accelerated. If the country made the type of investment in the National Weather Service that it did in the 1980s, scenes like the ones in Missouri this week and in Alabama and Mississippi last month could be a thing of the past."

"I am very proud of my co-workers at the National Weather Service this tornado season. They saved many lives and having been there myself, I can assure you, they feel personally about every lost life," said Sobien. "I know that budgets are tight and there are many priorities, but if you put investing in the National Weather Service up to a vote today in tornado alley, I think the approval would be a landslide."

I wholeheartedly agree with this view--investments in better tornado forecasts and tornado observing technology will potentially give us a huge return in lives saved. Have a great holiday weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday or Tuesday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

Tornado Power (Betty2)

Sunday, LaCrosse, WI a tornado hit. This is a photo of a 2x4 board that slammed through a tire.. and, freaky, but it left the air in the tire! Photo was taken by my neighbor, Lori Hines, Gays Mills WI.

25 May, (rdjgonzo)

May 25, 2011 at 7:10pm. Picture taken from Bartlett (Shelby County) TN.

What A Storm (llpj04)

Categories: Tornado

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2201. sunlinepr 1:20 AM GMT en Mayo 31, 2011
Member Since: Agosto 2, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 8439

2202. PlazaRed 1:20 AM GMT en Mayo 31, 2011
I suppose at the end of the day the powers that be could justify the next bout of hostilities by stating that,Meteoromanipulation had stolen their rain or in fact sunshine and demand compensation. Member Since: Enero 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1442

2204. Tropicsweatherpr 1:21 AM GMT en Mayo 31, 2011
The site to watch is the one that announces new invests are up.So far,no 93L tonight. Link Member Since: Abril 29, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 8110

2205. Hurricanes101 1:21 AM GMT en Mayo 31, 2011
Quoting Hurrykane: Like in my bank account. lol! LOL Member Since: Marzo 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

2206. Hurricanes101 1:23 AM GMT en Mayo 31, 2011
Quoting PlazaRed: I suppose at the end of the day the powers that be could justify the next bout of hostilities by stating that,Meteoromanipulation had stolen their rain or in fact sunshine and demand compensation. To me that would be the only benefit; drought areas could be given rain for relief and vice versa I just hate the idea of messing with mother nature; she is already going crazy as it is. Member Since: Marzo 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

2207. HurricaneSwirl 1:23 AM GMT en Mayo 31, 2011
Quoting Hurricanes101: we already have an example of it coming back to bite us, remember that storm in the 60s that was going out to sea? They decided to go and seed it; what happened? It didn't weaken the storm and the storm took a sharp turn back towards land. In a world where we truly do not understand all that is involved in creating weather; trying to alter is a very dangerous idea. Which hurricane was that? Surely that's just post hoc and the turn back towards land was coincidental? If not that's insane! Member Since: Julio 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237

2208. FrankZapper 1:24 AM GMT en Mayo 31, 2011
Quoting sunlinepr: True, it's a bad idea... But the quest for weather control began long ago and it is a MUST for every superpower to sustain a weather manipulation program as part of their national defense system.... Imagine if for instance we could send a Task Force off the coast of North Korea or Iran and cook up and send a severe tropical system their way. Member Since: Mayo 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193

2209. rinkrat61 1:24 AM GMT en Mayo 31, 2011
Quoting wpb: great day in se fla. however rain is lacking and lake o is near the danger level. rainy season please begin.models are making us wait though............ The models are going to make it rain?????? Member Since: Noviembre 6, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 41

2210. FrankZapper 1:30 AM GMT en Mayo 31, 2011
Quoting Hurricanes101: Sounds like a stupid Sci-Fi movie; the idea sound so far-fetched and stupid Again you mess with mother nature, she will bite you back Have you seen the movie "Dr Strangelove""? Weird things were going on there. Member Since: Mayo 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193

2211. PlazaRed 1:31 AM GMT en Mayo 31, 2011
That storm in the lower Caribbean is starting to look a bit agitated, bet it get out of hand soon. Wish I could sit up all night and watch you guys debating but its 2.30 in Europe now so thanks and good night. Member Since: Enero 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1442

2212. Bitmap7 1:31 AM GMT en Mayo 31, 2011
Member Since: Mayo 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 429

2214. PRweathercenter 1:33 AM GMT en Mayo 31, 2011
Quoting sunlinepr: There's a lot of activity out there tonight, however nothing to organized right now. But there is a huge wave that came off the coast of senegal, i know it;s to early, but it's impressive. Link Member Since: Julio 21, 2010 Posts: 57 Comments: 915

2215. Hurricanes101 1:36 AM GMT en Mayo 31, 2011
Quoting HurricaneSwirl: Which hurricane was that? Surely that's just post hoc and the turn back towards land was coincidental? If not that's insane! A hurricane in 1947, turned back to the coast and hit Savannah; they claim it had already started turning towards land when they seeded, but the seeding did not do much anyway Member Since: Marzo 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

2216. Hurricanes101 1:37 AM GMT en Mayo 31, 2011
Quoting Hurrykane: Actually, it may not have been coincidental. Back in the day, seeding a hurricane caused the eye diameter to grow, which should have weakened it. I think there were a few that did...however, it's just like a hurricane doing an eyewall replacement cycle...you weaken it, it gets steered lower in the atmosphere for a while...then, once the eye shrinks again, the cane can be even stronger than before the seeding. Again, different steering level. exactly when you mess with the strength of a storm you are also affecting what ends up steering it. Member Since: Marzo 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

2217. sunlinepr 1:46 AM GMT en Mayo 31, 2011
Quoting Hurricanes101: A hurricane in 1947, turned back to the coast and hit Savannah; they claim it had already started turning towards land when they seeded, but the seeding did not do much anyway Those were the first experiments... around the 1940's Looks like they learned that you can only control it, by seeding (when it is embrionic) before it develops into an uncontrollable system... And seems like they got good results if you consider the 85% effectiveness in Vietnam.... And China learned it too... Member Since: Agosto 2, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 8439

2218. sunlinepr 1:50 AM GMT en Mayo 31, 2011
Quoting PRweathercenter: There's a lot of activity out there tonight, however nothing to organized right now. But there is a huge wave that came off the coast of senegal, i know it;s to early, but it's impressive. Link That gif can be posted directly here... That's a good bookmark to post from time to time here... Member Since: Agosto 2, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 8439

2219. FrankZapper 1:51 AM GMT en Mayo 31, 2011
Quoting sunlinepr: Those like those were the first experiments... 1947 And seems like they got good results if you consider the 85% effectiveness in Vietnam.... I'm not familiar with the Vietnam Mateoromanipulation experiment. Exactly what happened there? I assume you're not talking about Agent Orange. Member Since: Mayo 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193

2221. kmanislander 2:00 AM GMT en Mayo 31, 2011
Quoting zoomiami: almost as bad as lawyer talk! I resemble that remark :-) Member Since: Agosto 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939

2222. SBKaren 2:03 AM GMT en Mayo 31, 2011
Hey Dr. Masters....saw you on the PBS News Hour! Well done! Member Since: Febrero 21, 2005 Posts: 191 Comments: 14179

2223. sunlinepr 2:07 AM GMT en Mayo 31, 2011
Quoting FrankZapper: I'm not familiar with the Vietnam Mateoromanipulation experiment. Exactly what happened there? I assume you're not talking about Agent Orange. There are a lot of links about weather manipulation... It is a fact... But... there is fiction and exageration in it... You will find many conspiracy theory fanatics behind it... So if you want to make a serious, scientific study of it, you have to filter the good from the bad... and look for info. available... Link Link what we've been talking here is about the seeding of clouds with Silver Iodide, experiments made by the US during WWII... Member Since: Agosto 2, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 8439

2224. kmanislander 2:09 AM GMT en Mayo 31, 2011
Enter stage right for another 1008 mb surface low Pretty close to where we see the strengthening 850 mb low ( 5000 feet ) Unfortunately shear is on the rise down there so no go for now. Member Since: Agosto 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939

2225. Tazmanian 2:11 AM GMT en Mayo 31, 2011
by the way been a long time from the last time we saw this Particularly Dangerous Situation (PDS) Severe Thunderstorm Watch 405 RGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 405 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 840 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2011 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF PARTS OF NORTHWEST IOWA PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEBRASKA SMALL PART OF SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 840 PM UNTIL 200 AM CDT. ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... EXTREMELY DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 90 MPH...LARGE HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTHWEST OF SIOUX CITY IOWA TO 50 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF RUSSELL KANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES. OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 402...WW 403... DISCUSSION...INTENSE SQUALL LINE HAS DEVELOPED N/S ACROSS CENTRAL NEB AND CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SWD AS IT MOVES EWD. VERY STRONG PRES RISE/FALL COUPLET IS DRIVING THE LINE EWD WITH THE FORCING FROM LARGE SCALE TROUGH ROTATING ACROSS THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS PROVIDING BOTH SHEAR AND UPWARD MOTION TO RESULT IN POTENTIAL FOR VERY DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION BRIEF TORNADOES ARE STILL POSSIBLE BUT DAMAGING WINDS NOW ARE THE DOMINANT THREAT. AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 80 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23040. Member Since: Mayo 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111320

2226. Bitmap7 2:12 AM GMT en Mayo 31, 2011
Quoting kmanislander: Enter stage right for another 1008 mb surface low Pretty close to where we see the strengthening 850 mb low ( 5000 feet ) Unfortunately shear is on the rise down there so no go for now. Shear has been falling in some places but over the past few hours has began increasing over our blob. Shear is on the decrease at our new low center and the convection seems to be migrating there now. Member Since: Mayo 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 429

2227. TomTaylor 2:14 AM GMT en Mayo 31, 2011
Quoting twincomanche: This may have been discussed earlier (I didn't read 2200 posts) but reading Dr. Masters calling for more money for better tornado warning I was thinking that what would I do if I got more warning? Start looking out the window sooner? I think if we want to make ourselves safer we need to consider things like where is a safe place to go? Friends of ours near Oklahoma City have a storm cellar that will hold about six with some comfort. That sounds like a seriously good idea to me. I can evacuate from a hurricane, however running from a tornado seems like one of those questions of "what direction do I run?" It appears to me that most of the tools you need to be safe are in place, we just need to use them rather than spend another zillion dollars on more predictive tools that really don't make people any safer. Just some thoughts on a holiday night. I agree much is already in place for tornado warnings, however much can still be done. For one, better radar would allow or better prediction systems which would allow for increased forecasting skill. This should, in theory, give people more time to prepare and allow people to place more trust in tornado warnings rather than assuming its another false alarm (which not many people do, but there is certainly a decent number of folks who ignore the warnings), ultimately saving lives. Sure, our nation is not in the best economic position to increase spending, but I do believe it is something to consider in the near future when we are in a better economic situation. Member Since: Agosto 24, 2010 Posts: 18 Comments: 3886

2228. kmanislander 2:16 AM GMT en Mayo 31, 2011
Quoting Bitmap7: Shear has been falling in some places but over the past few hours has began increasing over our blob. Shear is on the decrease at our new low center and the convection seems to be migrating there now. Yes but too close to the coast to really do anything. It has to get out over the open water and that is where the shear has gone up recently. Give it 24 hours for the ULL over the Bahamas to get into the GOM and then we will have a real chance of development. Until then the lows will come and go as they are beheaded by the shear aloft. Member Since: Agosto 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939

2229. Levi32 2:16 AM GMT en Mayo 31, 2011
Quoting kmanislander: Enter stage right for another 1008 mb surface low Pretty close to where we see the strengthening 850 mb low ( 5000 feet ) Unfortunately shear is on the rise down there so no go for now. Vis/IR2 imagery shows that the wind field near that 2nd "low" is clearly more unidirectional. Not very impressive at all. The surface convergence with that area of convection east of Nicaragua should keep that area dominant. Member Since: Noviembre 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25441

2231. kmanislander 2:18 AM GMT en Mayo 31, 2011
Quoting Levi32: Vis/IR2 imagery shows that the wind field near that 2nd "low" is clearly more unidirectional. Not very impressive at all. The surface convergence with that area of convection east of Nicaragua should keep that area dominant. Yes, see post 2228 Member Since: Agosto 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939

2232. Bitmap7 2:18 AM GMT en Mayo 31, 2011
Quoting Levi32: Vis/IR2 imagery shows that the wind field near that 2nd "low" is clearly more unidirectional. Not very impressive at all. The surface convergence with that area of convection east of Nicaragua should keep that area dominant. Member Since: Mayo 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 429

2233. Levi32 2:20 AM GMT en Mayo 31, 2011
Quoting Bitmap7: That map isn't necessarily accurate either. Visible imagery doesn't lie. Satellite estimates of wind trying to peak beneath -60C clouds do. The inflow into that convection observed while the sun was up clearly indicates the focus-point of surface convergence. So did this morning's ASCAT. Member Since: Noviembre 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25441

2234. kmanislander 2:21 AM GMT en Mayo 31, 2011
Post 2232 The convergence on the coast will fade away when the low there fades. I don't think it can last in that area and may be the perennial low that comes off the Colombian highlands. Member Since: Agosto 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939

2235. SouthDadeFish 2:21 AM GMT en Mayo 31, 2011
Shear won't start letting up until 48-72 hours from now. Member Since: Agosto 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2413

2237. sunlinepr 2:24 AM GMT en Mayo 31, 2011
Quoting TomTaylor: I agree much is already in place for tornado warnings, however much can still be done.... If I lived in a tornado area i would invest in concrete shelter INSIDE the house: Government can stimulate this by giving tax excemptions.. How to Build a Concrete Storm Shelter By Heidi Braley, eHow Contributor Link Having a concrete storm shelter in the backyard is a safety must for anyone who lives in the tornado alley of the United States. The timing when the tornadoes will come is unpredictable but you can make an effort to be prepared. Your family's health and safety must be your top priority in the event of an emergency. Educating everyone in your home how to react in the case of a tornado warning is essential for survival as every second counts. This shelter is also a perfect emergency structure for hurricanes. Also Link There are many links around... Member Since: Agosto 2, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 8439

2238. brianc 2:25 AM GMT en Mayo 31, 2011
Quoting HurricaneSwirl: Which hurricane was that? Surely that's just post hoc and the turn back towards land was coincidental? If not that's insane! It was Hurricane Betsey...one of the great cover ups, IMHO. Try to find info on project Storm Fury... the seeding really did seem responsible for the change of direction...Betsey hit both Miami and New Orleans...1965 Member Since: Septiembre 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24

2239. Bitmap7 2:26 AM GMT en Mayo 31, 2011
Quoting Levi32: That map isn't necessarily accurate either. Visible imagery doesn't lie. Satellite estimates of wind trying to peak beneath -60C clouds do. The inflow into that convection observed while the sun was up clearly indicates the focus-point of surface convergence. So did this morning's ASCAT. Agreed. What are your estimates for the reduction of shear now? I am thinking 24-36hrs. Member Since: Mayo 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 429

2240. Hurricanes101 2:29 AM GMT en Mayo 31, 2011
Quoting brianc: It was Hurricane Betsey...one of the great cover ups, IMHO. Try to find info on project Storm Fury... the seeding really did seem responsible for the change of direction...Betsey hit both Miami and New Orleans...1965 They never seeded Betsy; they had seedings scheduled but by then the storm had turned towards land; so they cancelled them Member Since: Marzo 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

2241. Hurricanes101 2:30 AM GMT en Mayo 31, 2011
we have invest 91W now Member Since: Marzo 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

2242. TaylorSelseth 2:30 AM GMT en Mayo 31, 2011
We lost power here for about 30 minutes when a supercell came through, sounds like there's wind damage in places, no reports of a tornado, though. Member Since: Agosto 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 324

2243. Levi32 2:32 AM GMT en Mayo 31, 2011
Quoting Bitmap7: Agreed. What are your estimates for the reduction of shear now? I am thinking 24-36hrs. I've been saying Thursday for any kind of significant progress when shear starts to really relax, and I still think that's a good estimate. Member Since: Noviembre 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25441

2244. sunlinepr 2:32 AM GMT en Mayo 31, 2011
Quoting brianc: It was Hurricane Betsey...one of the great cover ups, IMHO. Try to find info on project Storm Fury... the seeding really did seem responsible for the change of direction...Betsey hit both Miami and New Orleans...1965 Link Link Link Member Since: Agosto 2, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 8439

2246. Levi32 2:33 AM GMT en Mayo 31, 2011
Quoting brianc: It was Hurricane Betsey...one of the great cover ups, IMHO. Try to find info on project Storm Fury... the seeding really did seem responsible for the change of direction...Betsey hit both Miami and New Orleans...1965 Lol there was a perfectly fine explanation for Betsy's turnaround. A blocking ridge planted itself squarely in her way, just like Jeanne in 2004. Member Since: Noviembre 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25441

2247. sunlinepr 2:34 AM GMT en Mayo 31, 2011
Project Stormfury was a research program for hurricane modification that was active between 1962 and 1983. The Stormfury hypothesis was that seeding the first rain band outside of the eyewall clouds with silver iodide (AgI) would cause supercooled water to turn into ice. This would release heat, which would cause the clouds to grow faster, pulling in air that would otherwise reach the wall of clouds around the eye. The plan was to cut off the air supply feeding the original eye wall, which would cause it to fade away while a second, wider eye wall would grow further from out from the storm's center. Because the wall would be wider, air spiraling into the clouds would be slower. The partial conservation of angular momentum was intended to decrease the force of the strongest winds. At the same time the cloud seeding theory was being developed, a group at the Navy Weapons Center in California was developing new seeding generators that could release large amounts of silver iodide crystals into storms. In 1961, the eye wall of Hurricane Esther was seeded with silver iodide. The hurricane stopped growing and showed signs of possible weakening. Hurricane Beulah was seeded in 1963, again with some encouraging results. Two hurricanes were then seeded with massive quantities of silver iodide. The first storm (Hurricane Debbie, 1969) weakened temporarily after being seeded five times. No significant effect was detected on the second storm (Hurricane Ginger, 1971). Later analysis of the 1969 storm suggested that the storm would have weakened with or without the seeding, as part of the normal eyewall replacement process. Budget cuts and lack of definitive success led to the discontinuation of the hurricane seeding program. In the end, it was decided that funding would be better spent learning more about how hurricanes work and in finding ways to better prepare for and lessen the damage from natural storms. Even if it turned out cloud seeding or other artificial measures could lessen the intensity of the storms, there was considerable debate about where on their course the storms would be altered and concern over the ecological implications of changing the storms. 1966 photo of Personell Member Since: Agosto 2, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 8439

2248. Hurricanes101 2:35 AM GMT en Mayo 31, 2011
Quoting Levi32: Lol there was a perfectly fine explanation for Betsy's turnaround. A blocking ridge planted itself squarely in her way, just like Jeanne in 2004. Levi we got a duo of invests in the WPAC, not sure if you follow the storms over there Member Since: Marzo 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

2249. Levi32 2:36 AM GMT en Mayo 31, 2011
Quoting eyestalker: Levi, will this develop, or not? ...by the way guys (points at Taz) I'm not the infamous troll known as "eye" throught the years so don't get the wrong conception. Well, that's going to depend a whole lot on its initial track. The farther northeast it goes, the more likely it doesn't do anything. I'm leaning towards the idea that it takes its time leaving the Caribbean, northeast or not, and has an ok shot at gaining TD status, but whether it ever gets beyond that will depend entirely on its track, which is still up in the air. It will be hard to even get it to a TD too. Member Since: Noviembre 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25441

2250. Levi32 2:36 AM GMT en Mayo 31, 2011
Quoting Hurricanes101: Levi we got a duo of invests in the WPAC, not sure if you follow the storms over there When I'm bored, or when they get strong, lol. Member Since: Noviembre 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25441

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