Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting HurricaneDean07:
levi, is there any way for the mid level Circulation to make it's way to the surface? wondering cause its spinning pretty well.

Doubtful. They usually dissipate, and are at or above the 500mb level, which makes it hard for them to get to the surface. It's also illogical, since they form from the dissipation of convection, implying that pressures are not trying to lower at that specific location.

also from the looks of it on the cmc map you have shown, the shear is a good enough distance to help ventilate it, but it will begin to feel the shear shortly after that time period.

Sending great warnings is important, and I'm glad we live in a day and age when we can do that. But if so many people still don't RECEIVE those warnings in a meaningful way and then don't have meaningfully safe shelter after being warned, what good do the warnings do?

I seriously doubt that money spent on more and better radars, computers and software will yield dramatically better warnings than what we have today. 24 minutes warning of an event that you can't ever completely predict is very good and how much further in advance will these investments really allow EFFECTIVE warnings to be given.

I think the money for the next step improving tornado preparedness should go into (a) developing inexpensive in-home, "wired-in" weather/hazard radio/alarms (similar in price, legal requirement and installation to smoke and CO alarms) so that nearly everyone actually RECEIVES a meaningful warning and (b) networks of underground shelter parks and in-building shelters where properly warned people always have a place to get safe shelter.

1) Weather radios aren't expensive, but not everyone has one, and they're not always left on. Wired in radio/alarms, like smoke alarms, would always be ready to receive warnings. Made in large quantities to fulfill a legal requirement for one in every home and public building, they'd be even cheaper.
2) Buildings like "Walmart" and "Home Depot" and any other large public building should be required to have underground shelter sufficient to house their expected max occupancy.
3) Residential Neighborhoods should construct a network of underground shelters with parks on top (nice benefit during the 364+ days the shelters aren't used) where residents without underground shelters can quickly walk to truly safe shelter. Estimates of $5,000 per home to build in-home safe rooms are just too high for most folks. For a reasonable amount, underground shelters that serve several blocks of houses could be built, and nice, small parks located on top as an added plus to the community.

Sending great warnings is great, and I'm glad we live in a day and age when we can do that. But if so many people still don't RECEIVE those warnings and then don't have meaningfully safe shelter after being warned, what good do the warnings do?

Quoting Levi32:


Doubtful. They usually dissipate, and are at or above the 500mb level, which makes it hard for them to get to the surface. It's also illogical, since they form from the dissipation of convection, implying that pressures are not trying to lower at that specific location.

Levi, vorticity diagrams support the circulation is more concentrated at the 850mb level than any other higher level. Nonetheless, I doubt anything comes of this. I think you're right about the decaying convective complex.

Quoting Levi32:


Doubtful. They usually dissipate, and are at or above the 500mb level, which makes it hard for them to get to the surface. It's also illogical, since they form from the dissipation of convection, implying that pressures are not trying to lower at that specific location.

good point, have you posted your tropical tidbit today? won't start posting my blogs again until JUNE 1, or when our first storm forms... not much time before then...

Quoting Levi32:


Doubtful. They usually dissipate, and are at or above the 500mb level, which makes it hard for them to get to the surface. It's also illogical, since they form from the dissipation of convection, implying that pressures are not trying to lower at that specific location.

Levi,When does an area get a floater?

Quoting NWeatherNut:
Sending great warnings is important, and I'm glad we live in a day and age when we can do that. But if so many people still don't RECEIVE those warnings in a meaningful way and then don't have meaningfully safe shelter after being warned, what good do the warnings do?

I seriously doubt that money spent on more and better radars, computers and software will yield dramatically better warnings than what we have today. 24 minutes warning of an event that you can't ever completely predict is very good and how much further in advance will these investments really allow EFFECTIVE warnings to be given.

I think the money for the next step improving tornado preparedness should go into (a) developing inexpensive in-home, "wired-in" weather/hazard radio/alarms (similar in price, legal requirement and installation to smoke and CO alarms) so that nearly everyone actually RECEIVES a meaningful warning and (b) networks of underground shelter parks and in-building shelters where properly warned people always have a place to get safe shelter.

1) Weather radios aren't expensive, but not everyone has one, and they're not always left on. Wired in radio/alarms, like smoke alarms, would always be ready to receive warnings. Made in large quantities to fulfill a legal requirement for one in every home and public building, they'd be even cheaper.
2) Buildings like "Walmart" and "Home Depot" and any other large public building should be required to have underground shelter sufficient to house their expected max occupancy.
3) Residential Neighborhoods should construct a network of underground shelters with parks on top (nice benefit during the 364+ days the shelters aren't used) where residents without underground shelters can quickly walk to truly safe shelter. Estimates of $5,000 per home to build in-home safe rooms are just too high for most folks. For a reasonable amount, underground shelters that serve several blocks of houses could be built, and nice, small parks located on top as an added plus to the community.

Sending great warnings is great, and I'm glad we live in a day and age when we can do that. But if so many people still don't RECEIVE those warnings and then don't have meaningfully safe shelter after being warned, what good do the warnings do?

Which is why text message notification should be employed during any kind of tornado emergency or any other natural disaster. They can target the specific cell phone tower so anyone in that area gets the notification.

An interesting feature to watch as this situation evolves will be the two tropical waves getting closely involved with the monsoon trough over the southwest Caribbean during the next few days. The first tropical wave is currently moving into Columbia, and will likely be absorbed northwestward into the broad area of low pressure developing within the monsoon trough. The 2nd tropical wave is just now passing the southern lesser Antilles, and will continue westward, eventually interacting with the low pressure area in the SW Caribbean in about 72 hours, around the time when wind shear will start relaxing due to the retreating subtropical jetstream. This coincidence of a more favorable upper-level pattern developing just as another tropical wave enters the scene may result in a decent step upward in organization of the monsoonal low in the SW Caribbean by Thursday.

Looks the orginal AOI of interest in SW Caribbean has split in 2 to me according to the voticity map?

Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Levi, vorticity diagrams support the circulation is more concentrated at the 850mb level than any other higher level. Nonetheless, I doubt anything comes of this. I think you're right about the decaying convective complex.

PIC??? can't get to the site, having computer problems...

Well this clears everything up. Lol.

Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Levi, vorticity diagrams support the circulation is more concentrated at the 850mb level than any other higher level. Nonetheless, I doubt anything comes of this. I think you're right about the decaying convective complex.

If you look at the satellite, though, the spin is now at 15N, while the vort max on CIMSS analysis is down at 12N. They don't match, indicating that they are likely not showing the same feature. There may very well be a vorticity max in the low levels east of Nicaragua, but it wouldn't be due to the mid-level spin we're talking about. That feature is quickly moving on to the northeast and dissipating.

Quoting stormpetrol:
Looks the orginal AOI of interest in SW Caribbean has split in 2 to me according to the voticity map?

Refer to the image in post #1313. It's an elongated region of low-level vorticity along an elongated surface trough. Such a setup is typical of a monsoonal disturbance in early-stage development.

Quoting Levi32:
An interesting feature to watch as this situation evolves will be the two tropical waves getting closely involved with the monsoon trough over the southwest Caribbean during the next few days. The first tropical wave is currently moving into Columbia, and will likely be absorbed northwestward into the broad area of low pressure developing within the monsoon trough. The 2nd tropical wave is just now passing the southern lesser Antilles, and will continue westward, eventually interacting with the low pressure area in the SW Caribbean in about 72 hours, around the time when wind shear will start relaxing due to the retreating subtropical jetstream. This coincidence of a more favorable upper-level pattern developing just as another tropical wave enters the scene may result in a decent step upward in organization of the monsoonal low in the SW Caribbean by Thursday.

I think with this one it will be pretty much like most last year,wait and see.

Somehow this area is reminding me of Nicole last year, just looking at it that is

Already Florida casting I can see in here

Quoting sammywammybamy:




Its not even June 1st and the Models are already Florida Casting....
feels like another Nicole...

All Bark... No Bite.

I remember being sent home from school for Nicole.

Quoting sammywammybamy:




Its not even June 1st and the Models are already Florida Casting....
feels like another Nicole...

All Bark... No Bite.

LOL, speak for yourself.
We had flooding issues here from Nicole to the extent that schools and several businesses had to close.

Quoting stormpetrol:
Somehow this area is reminding me of Nicole last year, just looking at it that is

It reminds me of paloma.

From what I've been hearing, a ridge of high pressure is to develop over the SE next week bringing heat, so to me the disturbance in the Carribbean is gonna go NW in to Gulf or sit and wait it out down there.

Quoting Bitmap7:


It reminds me of paloma.

never know it may be another paloma except closer to us and heads to W Cuba not E

Quoting Bitmap7:


It reminds me of paloma.

What about this reminds you of Paloma ?

Actually I would think the real comparison would be to Alex last year

Alex developed from the monsoon trough after 2 tropical waves interacted with it

Remember how long it took to get its act together?

Quoting RitaEvac:
From what I've been hearing, a ridge of high pressure is to develop over the SE next week bringing heat, so to me the disturbance in the Carribbean is gonna go NW in to Gulf or sit and wait it out down there.

And into the Gulf = death from high shear.

Quoting cchsweatherman:


Thats primarily the result of the normal Pacific monsoon trough now moving northward into the Western Caribbean.

About time...

@wxnut.... these r some great ideas, some we have bruited about here... however, given the current climate of American politics, such things could only happen if $xx are awarded in tax cuts to the rich.... [still thinking about the comments of certain US political leaders who suggested that Americans should only help their peers in an emergency if rich pple get tax breaks....]

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
245 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2011

CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W...
MAIN WEATHER FEATURE CONTINUES TO BE A BROAD AND DISORGANIZED
AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE A SURFACE
TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM 13N77W TO 10N83W ON THE 1200 UTC
SURFACE MAP. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW
PRES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. IN ADDITION...
PRESSURES HAVE FALLEN AROUND 4 MB IN THE LAST 24 HOURS AT SAN
ANDRES AND THE MOST RECENT WINDSAT PASS INDICATED NE TO E WINDS
OF 20 KT N OF THE TROUGH AXIS. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE LOW
LINGERING OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN E OF SAN ANDRES...THEN DEEPENING
SLIGHTLY AS IT LIFTS N INTO THE W CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN
NICARAGUA AND JAMAICA BETWEEN NOW AND THU. THIS SHOULD TIGHTEN
THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...
ALLOWING E TO SE WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT BY LATE MON.
SEAS WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ACCORDINGLY WITH 8 TO
10 FT BY TUE.

Notice the moisture envelope slowly push northwards as the jet begins its slow lift.

Link

I've been waiting for this. The 12z ECMWF ensembles show a significant member spread in the western Caribbean for the first time (pink colors). This means that many of the members are showing development of this tropical disturbance, causing more disagreement between the members on what the sea-level pressures are going to be at a certain time. This is a sign that the ECMWF is becoming much more friendly towards development of the system.

Quoting RitaEvac:
From what I've been hearing, a ridge of high pressure is to develop over the SE next week bringing heat, so to me the disturbance in the Carribbean is gonna go NW in to Gulf or sit and wait it out down there.

kinda it sits in the NW Carib just about right on top of me

Quoting stormwatcherCI:
What about this reminds you of Paloma ?

The whole position of it, model tracking and people thinking its going to fiz out before it gets to strengthen (it pull off a rapid intensification). When I saw the cmc model run it just came to me. It also took a while to get anything going as well. The big difference is that it was birthed from a front.

Quoting SouthDadeFish:
And into the Gulf = death from high shear.

if it waits until days 8-10 to get into the Gulf, then death from high shear is not as likely

Quoting Hurricanes101:
Actually I would think the real comparison would be to Alex last year

Alex developed from the monsoon trough after 2 tropical waves interacted with it

Remember how long it took to get its act together?

True, but so far I don't think this looks all too similar. For one thing, although the portion of the ITCZ currently lifting into the Caribbean is technically supposed to be the monsoon trough, there is a lack of monsoon southwesterlies that we would expect to see. Alex had a full-blown monsoon trough across the entire Caribbean that had the marks of the western Pacific all over it. This current one looks much more like the lesser Atlantic version that is aided by the subtropical jet early in the season. In other words, Alex was the real deal in terms of monsoonal development. We don't see that very often at all in the Atlantic.

IN ADDITION...
PRESSURES HAVE FALLEN AROUND 4 MB IN THE LAST 24 HOURS AT SAN
ANDRES AND THE MOST RECENT WINDSAT PASS INDICATED NE TO E WINDS
OF 20 KT N OF THE TROUGH AXIS. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE LOW
LINGERING OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN E OF SAN ANDRES...THEN DEEPENING
SLIGHTLY AS IT LIFTS N INTO THE W CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN
NICARAGUA AND JAMAICA BETWEEN NOW AND THU

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
245 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2011

CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W...
MAIN WEATHER FEATURE CONTINUES TO BE A BROAD AND DISORGANIZED
AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE A SURFACE
TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM 13N77W TO 10N83W ON THE 1200 UTC
SURFACE MAP. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW
PRES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. IN ADDITION...
PRESSURES HAVE FALLEN AROUND 4 MB IN THE LAST 24 HOURS AT SAN
ANDRES AND THE MOST RECENT WINDSAT PASS INDICATED NE TO E WINDS
OF 20 KT N OF THE TROUGH AXIS. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE LOW
LINGERING OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN E OF SAN ANDRES...THEN DEEPENING
SLIGHTLY AS IT LIFTS N INTO THE W CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN
NICARAGUA AND JAMAICA BETWEEN NOW AND THU. THIS SHOULD TIGHTEN
THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...
ALLOWING E TO SE WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT BY LATE MON.
SEAS WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ACCORDINGLY WITH 8 TO
10 FT BY TUE.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 60W S OF 13N WILL MIGRATE W THROUGH
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND EASTERN VENEZUELA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT PRODUCING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AND GUSTY WINDS. LATEST
SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW 15 TO 20 KT E FLOW OVER THE S CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN...MAINLY DUE TO ANOTHER LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE
MOVING W THROUGH WESTERN VENEZUELA. THIS FEATURE WILL INTERACT
WITH TROUGHING OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND SW FLOW FROM THE E
PACIFIC TO HELP DEVELOP THE WEAK LOW PRES IN SW CARIBBEAN.

Quoting Levi32:
An interesting feature to watch as this situation evolves will be the two tropical waves getting closely involved with the monsoon trough over the southwest Caribbean during the next few days. The first tropical wave is currently moving into Columbia, and will likely be absorbed northwestward into the broad area of low pressure developing within the monsoon trough. The 2nd tropical wave is just now passing the southern lesser Antilles, and will continue westward, eventually interacting with the low pressure area in the SW Caribbean in about 72 hours, around the time when wind shear will start relaxing due to the retreating subtropical jetstream. This coincidence of a more favorable upper-level pattern developing just as another tropical wave enters the scene may result in a decent step upward in organization of the monsoonal low in the SW Caribbean by Thursday.

Excellent analysis there Levi. I'd love to know which image editing program you use since I could definitely use it for my website.

Quoting cchsweatherman:


Excellent analysis there Levi. I'd love to know which image editing program you use since I could definitely use it for my website.

Just Paint.net :) I love it, but it's a shame I have to reboot into Windows just to use it. Nothing as good exists in linux.

Let the games begin...

Quoting Hurricanes101:


if it waits until days 8-10 to get into the Gulf, then death from high shear is not as likely

Well i was referring to his scenario listed above, and even if it waits, I don't see conditions being all that favorable N of the Greater Antilles with that cutoff low spinning around.

all I know is...the entire gulf coast needs rain, and we need something to bring it some way some how

On a totally unrelated wx note, would u believe it is snowing in South Pass, WY? This is west-central WY, fyi... amazing for the last week of May... though not impossible, obviously....

Quoting RitaEvac:
all I know is...the entire gulf coast needs rain, and we need something to bring it some way some how

Here it comes......

Quoting IKE:

Here it comes......

That's hard to make out though..

stormpetrol, nah, not like nicole. Nicole was formed by some leftovers of matthew being fed into a split low from a trough. She went directly north and dissipated.
This storms analog matches are more like(This goes from 1995 to 2010):
Ida(2009)(FORMATION & TRACK?)
Paloma(2008)(FORMATION & TRACK)
Arlene(2005)(FORMATION & TRACK?)
TD 14(2002)(TRACK & STRENGTH)
Michelle(2001)(TRACK & FORMATION)
Irene(1999)(FORMATION & TRACK)
Allison(1995)(FORMATION & TRACK)

Quoting Levi32:
Observations at San Andres Isla, in the middle of the SW Caribbean Sea

I don't see a 4mb pressure drop there....