Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog |
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| Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:24 PM GMT en Mayo 27, 2011 | +6 |
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.
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It will be like pulling teeth to get this to develop at all, at least early on, which is typical of early-season systems, but there is some potential there.
It's only out to Day 7 so far.
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #71
DEVELOPED LOW, FORMER SONGDA (T1102)
15:00 PM JST May 29 2011
==================================
At 6:00 AM UTC, Developed Extratropical Low, Former Songda (982 hPa) located at 33.0N 134.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The low is reported as moving northeast at 30 knots.
Gale Force Winds
===============
300 NM from the center in eastern quadrant
200 NM from the center in western quadrant
THIS IS THE FINAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY FROM THE JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY
240 hours:
Rapid intensification amidst 20-40 knots of southwesterly upper level flow?
Wednesday: Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 96.
Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 69.
Thursday: Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 98.
Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 70.
Friday: Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 100.
Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 69.
Saturday: Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 100.
Where do you live? Here in East Central Florida we are also in a drought.
................................................. ..................................................
GFS @ 90 hours.....still 1006 mb's.
EXTENDED PERIOD...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LITTLE CHANGE
WEDNESDAY BUT THURSDAY A LOW PRES CENTER DEVELOPS OVER THE CARIB AND
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHWARD FROM THE CARIB
LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL TOWARD BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. BUT HIGH PRES REBUILDING OVER THE SE U.S. INTO NEXT WEEKEND
SHOVES THE DEEP MOISTURE SOUTHWARD AGAIN WITH LESS CHANCES OF RAIN.
THE PRES GRADIENT REMAINS HIGH OVER S FLA AND BREEZY CONDITIONS A
DAILY OCCURRENCE WITH E COAST RIP CURRENT THREAT.
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
530 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2011
.SYNOPSIS...WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED BETWEEN DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN AND HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
LIE IN THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 59W S OF
13N WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT.
UPDATE...THE NEW 00 UTC RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS CONCURRED WITH
THE GFS...WITH A MORE EASTWARD POSITION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK AND BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND...SO CONFIDENCE
FOR VERY HOT AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IS FURTHER INCREASED.
Just lovely:(
I literally mowed dust yesterday.
Here is the Marine discussion by NHC.
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
145 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2011
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.
CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W...
A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 60W S OF 13N WILL MIGRATE W THROUGH
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND EASTERN VENEZUELA TODAY...BUT HAVE A
MINIMAL LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACT. LATEST SCATTEROMETER
DATA SHOW 15 TO 20 KT E FLOW OVER THE S CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN...MAINLY DUE TO ANOTHER LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE
MIGRATING W THROUGH WESTERN VENEZUELA. THIS FEATURE WILL
INTERACT WITH TROUGHING OVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN AND SW FLOW
FROM THE E PACIFIC TO HELP DEVELOP A WEAK LOW PRES IN SW
CARIBBEAN BY TONIGHT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING THE LOW
LINGERING NEAR THE PANAMA COAST THROUGH MON...THEN DEEPENING
SLIGHTLY AS IT LIFTS N INTO THE W CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN
NICARAGUA AND JAMAICA. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT OVER
THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...ALLOWING E TO SE WINDS TO
INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT BY LATE MON. SEAS WILL BUILD OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ACCORDINGLY WITH 8 TO 10 FT BY TUE. LOOKING
AHEAD TO MID WEEK...GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN THE LOW OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN UNDER AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SW SHEAR
ALOFT...AND STILL SHOW THE LOW NOT DEEPENING APPRECIABLY.
AXNT20 KNHC 291043
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2011
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SITS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA THIS MORNING. THIS FLOW IS
KEEPING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN...
EXCEPT FOR THE SW BASIN...WHERE BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC TURNING
IS NOTED IN THIS REGION. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE HIGH
IN THIS REGION...NOTICED ON TPW PRODUCT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE S OF 18N W OF 73W. WITHIN THIS AREA OF CONVECTION...A
SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF COSTA RICA NEAR
10N83W NE TO 14N76W. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT
SUGGESTING THE ACTIVITY IN THE SW BASIN WILL INCREASE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...AS CYCLOGENESIS IN THE FORM OF A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPS IN THE 36 TO 72 HOUR WINDOW ACROSS THE
SW CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS.
Listen to my favourite band from Manchester UK (I am Kloot):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fmVtH5nbp30&featur e=related
[Edit: The embedded youtube code was messing up the blog in IE, so I changed it. Enjoy it anyway]
I thought they same thing as well, but to me it seems if this thing can sit around long enough in the Carib, the subtropical jet will lift far enough north to allow more favorable shear conditions in the NW Carib. Who knows what the chances of it staying down there that long are, but it seems the ECMWF has picked up on this, with a more aggressive run last night. However, it looks like once it tries to make it north of the Greater Antilles it will get smashed by that jet. I wouldn't mind some sheared off convection headed to S FL :)
Thursday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny,
with a high near 85. Windy, with a east wind between 16 and 21 mph, with
gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Thursday Night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy and breezy, with a low around 77. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Friday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny and windy, with a high near 89. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Friday Night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy and windy, with a low around 78. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Saturday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny and windy, with a high near 90. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Still status quo in the SW Caribbean. This is going to be like watching paint dry. Systems with a monsoonal genesis take forever to develop and this one will not really get going until it gets a jump start from a twave migrating Westward into the area.
On a general interest note, the buoy located at 15 N and 75W which was out of service is now functioning again. This is a key buoy for data in the Central Caribbean and had been out of service for well over a year.
Today, much of Texas will be in the triple digits, and there'll be temps in the 90s all the way up into the Ohio River Valley. For tomorrow, The entire eastern 2/3 of the U.S. will be in the mid-80s and higher. In the early part of the week, that warmth moves into the western part of the U.S., too, with states like Montana and Wyoming seeing their first 80 degree plus weather of the year. Finally, late in the week, the Southeast and the Great Plains will be baking, with temps in the 90s the rule, and even some triple digits into Kansas.
All in all, it looks like lots of air conditioners are going to definitely get their first real workout of the season.
65 hours....
9 minutes and it starts....
Hi there. Hot and dry here all day yesterday but the rain is lurking about 100 miles South of us. We could see it arrive here this afternoon if upper level winds ease off some. Right now those winds are holding that rain at bay.
On 29.05.2011 at 10:26 GMT 2
For everyone wondering what the loud explosion was in Northeast Philadelphia late Friday, we finally have an answer. The U.S. Geological Survey confirmed Saturday an earthquake with a magnitude of 1.7 rocked the Far Northeast near the Franklin Mills Mall. The epicenter was Fairdale Road near Knights Road and the quake was 2.6 miles below the Earth's surface. There were no injuries and no damage reported, Philadelphia police said. The quake occurred at 9:33 p.m. and the resulting noise caused a flurry of calls to Philadelphia's 911 center, and 50 calls alone to the 8th Police District, said a Philadelphia police captain. One man who felt the ground shake was Pat Whitely of Philadelphia. "We were in Rite Aid and I went to my car,'' saud Whitely. "As I was sitting in my car I felt the ground move. Right after that, Rite Aid employees came running out and asked me if I felt the ground move," he said. His friend, Joe Schweizer, also of Philadelphia, described the noise as a "big bang and a shock." Within minutes, police, firefighters, Philadelphia Gas Works and PECO crews converged on the intersection and there was a sea of fire trucks and police cruisers. Hundreds of people were mingling in the streets talking about the noise and what it could have been. Police initially believed a gas leak may have occurred, but they said several helicopters with thermal imaging equipment ruled out that possibility. PECO's Ben Armstrong said there were no electrical outages reported and no reports of any transformers exploding. Earthquakes in this part of the country are "infrequent" and tend to happen with more regularity closer to the New York State border and in the Adirondack Mountains, said Mitchell Gold with the Lamont-Doherty Cooperative Seismographic Network. "It was a very small earthquake with no damage, but earthquakes with a magnitude of less than 2.0 are rare," Gold said from his New York home Saturday. "There is no identified fault in the area where it occurred, but it may have been caused by normal stress in a slip of an unidentified fault." Another loud noise was heard early Saturday on Whiting Road in Philadelphia, but that has not been confirmed as an earthquake and may have been an aftershock, officials said.
Also going on, like yesterday the world tended toward vehicle accidents today it's explosions at chemical plants. One in NC & China so far. Sri Lanka had some bad flooding with a tragic landslip.
Mexican emergency management officials issued a preventive alert as an intense heat wave sent temperatures climbing to more than 40° C (104° F) in several areas of the north and between 32°-40° C (90°-104° F) across most of the country. Meanwhile the governments in most of the 31 states and the Federal District (Mexico City) alerted the public to take precautions against the rising temperatures in order to avoid sunstroke and other ills. The Sinaproc emergency management agency said Friday in a communique that the states suffering “extreme heat” of over 40° C (104° F) in some areas or across most of their territory are Sonora, Chihuahua and Coahuila, Nuevo Leon and Tamaulipas, all located in the north. Similar temperatures also occur in Sinaloa (northwest), San Luis Potosi (central), Veracruz (east), Chiapas, Tabasco, Campeche and Yucatan, the latter four in the south-southeast of the country.Sinaproc recommends that the population drink more water, avoid prolonged exposure to sun rays, wear white or light-colored clothing and use caps, hats or parasols. It also warned that special attention should be given to children, the elderly and indigenous peoples. It said that the recommendations of the Health Secretariat should be observed to prevent illnesses from the high temperatures.
Health authorities said that the incidence of diarrhea-causing infirmities rose by 5 percent over the last few weeks. In the Federal District, authorities warned capital residents that the temperature will reach 32° C (90° F), and in consequence recommended inhabitants to drink plenty of water, wear light clothing and avoid exposure to the sun. For Sunday the authorities forecast continued high temperatures during the day, with a low of 15°-17° C (59°-63° F), with variable winds of 20-40 kilometers (12-25 miles) per hour and probable stronger gusts. The health secretary of the Federal District, Armando Ahued, said that the heat wave could cause fainting, dizziness and the feeling of a lack of air among passengers of the Metro. He said that capital authorities have placed fans, sprays and drinking water in the aisles of the Metro, since air conditioning does not operate on the trains. He added that the high temperatures over the past few days are an example of the effects of climate change in the world and described current thermometer readings as historic.
Good morning. Some showers north of Jamaica moving westward.
...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF COSTA RICA NEAR 10N83W NE TO 14N76W.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT SUGGESTING THE ACTIVITY IN THE SW BASIN WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS CYCLOGENESIS IN THE FORM OF A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPS IN THE 36 TO 72 HOUR WINDOW ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS.
EMCWF puts it going north then NE into jamaica as weak ts
GFS brings NNW as a TD toward the yucatan channel
Nogaps shows a moderate to strong tropical storm slowly moving up the coast of nicaragua.
so all show decent formation out of this.
UKMET is also with it.
Link
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