Over 300 dead in historic tornado outbreak; one violent EF-5 tornado confirmed
Rescuers sifting through the twisted wreckage of countless towns ravaged by Wednesday's historic tornado outbreak continue to uncover bodies today, and the death toll has swollen to over 300 this morning, and may be as high as 319. Hardest hit was Alabama, with at least 213 dead. Tennessee, Mississippi, Georgia, Arkansas, and Virginia are each reporting 11 - 34 deaths. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center logged 211 preliminary reports of tornadoes between 8am EDT Wednesday and 8am Thursday, and 346 reports for the full 4-day period of the outbreak, from April 25 - April 28. Twenty-two of these tornadoes were killer tornadoes; deaths occurred in six states. Damage surveys will take another week to complete, but preliminary surveys indicate that at least one of the tornadoes was an EF-5--the Smithville, Mississippi tornado, which hit at 3:44pm EDT on Wednesday. That tornado killed 13 people and destroyed 166 buildings, and reportedly sucked fire hydrants out of the ground. Some well-built modern 2-story homes that were bolted to their foundations were completely destroyed, leaving only the foundation. This type of damage is characteristic of an EF-5 tornado with 205 mph winds. The Smithville tornado is the first EF-5 tornado in Mississippi since the Candlestick Park tornado of March 3, 1966. Three other tornadoes from Wednesday's outbreak have been given preliminary EF-4 ratings, with winds of 166 - 200 mph. These include the Phil Campbell, AL tornado (26 deaths), the Ringgold, GA tornado (7 deaths), the Tanner, GA tornado (11 deaths), and the Apison, Tennessee tornado (13 deaths, and possibly the same tornado that hit Ringgold.) The violent tornado that ravaged Tuscaloosa and Birmingham, Alabama, killing at least 46 people and injuring 600, has not yet been given an official rating. I expect this tornado will be rated an EF-4 (possibly an EF-5.) This tornado is likely to be the most expensive tornado of all-time, and damage from the April 25 - 28 outbreak is likely rank as the most expensive tornado outbreak in history. The current record is the $3.5 billion price tag, in 2005 dollars, of the April 3 - 4, 1974 Super Outbreak . According wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt in his post The World's Deadliest Tornadoes, the death toll of 319 makes the April 25 - 28, 2011 tornado outbreak the fourth deadliest tornado outbreak in U.S. history, and the deadliest since 1936. It is the deadliest of the past 50 years, surpassing the April 3 - 4, 1974 Super Outbreak (315 killed) and the 1965 Palm Sunday tornado outbreak (256 killed.)
Figure 1. Still frame from an animation showing the height and extent of the rain columns associated with the thunderstorms that spawned Wednesday's tornadoes. This data, taken from NASA's TRMM satellite, showed that some of these violent storms reached incredible heights of almost 10.6 miles (17 km.) Image credit: NASA/SSAI, Hal Pierce
The 4-day total of preliminary tornado reports of 346 from this outbreak is close to the 323 preliminary tornado reports logged during the massive April 14 - 16 tornado outbreak. That outbreak has 155 confirmed tornadoes so far, making it the largest April tornado outbreak on record, and 3rd largest in history. The numbers from this week's outbreak may be even higher, giving April 2011 the 3rd and 4th largest tornado outbreaks in history, and the deadliest outbreak in 75 years. According to a list of tornado outbreaks maintained by Wikipedia, only two other tornado outbreaks have had as many as 150 twisters--the May 2004 outbreak (385), and the May 2003 outbreak (401).
Figure 2. Storm chaser video from Reed Timmer and tornadovideos.net of four tornadoes that hit Alabama and Mississippi on Wednesday.
Figure 3. Storm chaser video of the tornado that moved through Philadelphia, Mississippi on Wednesday.
Unprecedented flooding predicted on Ohio and Mississippi Rivers
This week's storm system, in combination with heavy rains earlier this month, have pushed the Ohio River and Mississippi River to near-record levels near their confluence. The Ohio River at Cairo, Illinois is expected to crest at 60.5 feet on May 1. This would exceed 100-year flood stage, and be the highest flood in history, besting the 59.5' mark of 1937. Heavy rains of 10 - 15 inches have inundated the region over the past week. Additional rains of 1 - 3 inches are expected over the next five days.
Figure 4. Rainfall for the 7-day period ending at 8am EDT Thursday, April 28, 2011. Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.
Record 100+ year flood expected on Mississippi River
Snow melt from this winter's record snow pack across the Upper Mississippi River has formed a pulse of flood waters that is moving downstream. When this floodwater pulse moves south of Cairo, Illinois over the next two weeks, it will join with the record water flow coming out of the Ohio River, and create the highest flood heights ever recorded on the Mississippi, according to the latest forecasts from the National Weather Service. Along a 400-mile stretch of the Mississippi, from Cairo to Natchez, Mississippi the Mississippi is expected to experience the highest flood heights since records began 100 or more years ago, at 5 of the 10 gauges on the river along this stretch. The records are predicted to begin to fall on May 3 at New Madrid, and progress downstream to Natchez by May 20. Areas that are not protected by levees can expect extensive damage from the flooding, and it is possible that the Army Corps of Engineers will have to intentionally dynamite levees at Birds Point and New Madrid, Missouri to protect the town of Cairo from flooding. One unofficial estimate I saw on the Army Corps of Engineers web site put the cost of intentionally breaching the levees at Birds Point and New Madrid at $100 million dollars, due to damage to the croplands and structures in the flooded area. No levee has failed on the Lower Mississippi south of the Ohio River junction since 1950, and the Army Corp of Engineers has designed the levee system to contain a 500-year flood. This means that the Mississippi River flood of 2011--which will be somewhere between a 100-year and 200-year flood between Cairo and Natchez--is not likely to be a multi-billion-dollar disaster like the 1993 flood on the Upper Mississippi, where many levees failed.
The Mississippi River at New Madrid, MO, about 40 miles downstream of the confluence of the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers, is currently at 44.9', the 2nd highest flood in history. The river is predicted to crest on Tuesday very near the all-time record height of 48 feet. The NWS warns that at this height, "Large amounts of property damage can be expected. Evacuation of many homes and businesses becomes necessary." Previous record heights at this location:
(1) 48.00 ft on 02/03/1937
(2) 44.60 ft on 04/09/1913
(3) 43.60 ft on 04/04/1975
(4) 43.50 ft on 02/16/1950
(5) 42.94 ft on 03/17/1997
The timing of the floods crests will depend upon a complex mix a factors, including how much rain falls over the next month, the possible influence of southerly winds holding up the floodwater pulses, the potential opening of flood control structures and reduction of flows from flood control reservoirs, and potential levee failures. The Mississippi River is expected to crest at 17 feet at New Orleans on May 22, three feet below the top of the levees. This would likely require opening of the Bonnet Carre Spillway 28 miles upstream from New Orleans, to relieve pressure on the city's levees. Opening the spillway drains 250,000 cubic feet per second of flow into Lake Pontchartrain.
Helping out tornado victims
For those who want to lend a helping hand to those impacted by the widespread destruction this month's severe weather has brought, stop by the portlight.org blog.
Related post: Are tornadoes getting stronger and more frequent? The answer is--we don't know.
Jeff Masters
Tornado damage at County Line Road near Old Alabama Road on the Bradley/Hamilton County line in Tennessee
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 — Blog Index
..Maddox said up to 446 people were unaccounted for in the city, though he
added that many of those reports probably were from people who have
since found their loved ones but have not notified authorities.
Cadaver-detecting dogs were deployed in the city Friday but they had not
found any remains, Maddox said.
Emergency services were stretched particularly thin about 90 miles to
the north in the demolished town of Hackleburg, Ala., where officials
were keeping the dead in a refrigerated truck amid a body bag shortage.
At least 27 people were killed there and the search for missing people
continued, with FBI agents fanning out to local hospitals to help.
Damage in Hackleburg was catastrophic, said Stanley Webb, chief agent in the county's drug task force.
"When we talk about these homes, they are not damaged. They are gone," he said.
I find this clip fascinating. The tornado has no side-to-side movement which would imply it's moving directly towards the camera but it almost appears to be stationary. Crazy debris as well.
Pollution is seen over an industrial area of Huaxi village, at Jiangsu province December 3, 2010. REUTERS/Carlos Barria
By Chris Buckley BEIJING | Fri Apr 29, 2011 5:31am EDT
(Reuters) - China, the world's biggest emitter of greenhouse gases, could peak in emissions by 2030 or earlier, says a study from U.S. researchers who foresee Chinese demand for appliances, buildings and much industry reaching "saturation" around then.
The study by energy and emissions experts at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory in California adds to a growing body of studies that say China could reach its maximum output of carbon dioxide (CO2) within two decades.
That matters for more than China. Its emissions path will be crucial to determining whether the world can restrict total greenhouse gas emissions to levels less likely to trigger dangerous climate change, such as more intense droughts, floods and storms that threaten crops and economic growth.
"Once nearly every household owns a refrigerator, a washing machine, air conditioners and other appliances, and once housing area per-capita has stabilized, per-household electricity growth will slow," said co-author Mark Levine in a statement.
China, with 1.34 billion people, already emits a quarter of the world's CO2. This is more than the United States, historically the world's top emitter of the main greenhouse gas from human activity fuelling climate change.
It overtook the United States several years ago. India is the third top carbon polluter.
How soon China's emissions peak and at what levels will depend on how vigorously the government pursues cleaner growth policies, especially moving energy from coal to nuclear, hydro-power and renewable energy, said the researchers.
China generates most of its electricity using coal, the dirtiest of the fossil fuels, but is already investing heavily in cleaner energy.
The researchers say China can achieve a peak earlier and lower than other studies have suggested, in part because by about 2030, the country's demand for many emissions-intensive goods and industries will reach a plateau, a factor they say those studies overlook. Such goods include steel and cement.
"It is a common belief that China's CO2 emissions will continue to grow throughout this century. We believe that this is not likely to be the case," says the study, published on the website of the Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory's China Energy Group (china.lbl.gov/publications).
SLOWING POPULATION GROWTH
Among other reasons, the study cites computer models that indicate "urbanization will approach peak after 2030 or 2035; exports of energy-intensive industry will decline; and low population growth".
Chinese census data released on Thursday showed population growth already slowing sharply in the decade to 2010.
China's high and fast-climbing output of CO2 from coal, oil and gas has put it in the center of negotiations seeking a new global pact to deal with global warming.
In 2009, China's emissions of carbon dioxide from fossil fuels reached 7.5 billion tonnes, a rise of 9 percent on the previous year, according to estimates from the BP oil group. The United States emitted 5.9 billion tonnes.
Under a "baseline" model that assumes China builds on current emissions-reduction policies "consistent with trends in market-based improvement", the nation's emissions are likely to plateau around 2030-35 at about 12 billion tonnes of CO2.
Under a more stringent set of green policies, emissions peak between 2025 and 2030 at about 9.7 billion tonnes of CO2.
Based on this scenario, there would be a dramatic reduction in coal's share of energy production, to as low as 30 percent by 2050, compared to 74 percent in 2005. Nuclear power would expand to 86 gigawatts by 2020 and as much as 550 gigawatts by mid-century.
Writing in the Financial Times, British climate change expert Nicholas Stern said China's plans to reduce emissions per unit of gross domestic product could take annual emissions to 12 billion tonnes in 2020 and 15 billion tonnes in 2030.
This assumed 7 percent economic growth and an unchanged emissions reduction target per unit of GDP.
"While this would be a major reduction, it would make it difficult for the world to achieve the target of avoiding warming of more than 2 degrees Celsius, as agreed at the UN summit in Cancún last December," Stern wrote.
"So it is vital for the safety of the world, and China, for China to find a way of increasing its ambitions for reducing emissions, with a view to peaking at 12 billion or 13 billion tonnes in the early 2020s, and returning to about 9 billion tonnes by 2030."
Recent Chinese reports have also suggested the country could reach an emissions peak around 2030-35, while falling short of what experts have said Beijing needs to do to help the world escape dangerous levels of global warming.
Beijing has resisted officially spelling out when its emissions could peak and also rejected any internationally binding cap on the greenhouse gas levels of China and other developing countries, saying they should be allowed to grow out of poverty while rich nations lead the way in cutting carbon.
Gov. Robert Bentley, speaking in Birmingham, said the long road to recovery will now begin.
"We've gotten past the rescue stage," Bentley said. "We have begun the recovery stage."
Earlier Friday, President Barack Obama toured rubble-strewn neighborhoods in Tuscaloosa, declaring the devastation brought by a series of powerful storms and tornadoes was beyond anything he had ever seen.
The storms killed at least 326 people in six states and left entire neighborhoods in ruins. Obama promised expedited federal aid to states affected by the tornadoes.
"We're going to do everything we can to help these communities rebuild," he said.
Wednesday's outbreak of severe weather brought what the National Weather Service categorized as a rare EF-5 tornado to one Mississippi town.
And according to the weather service, it's possible another twister was on the ground for 200 miles from Mississippi through Alabama.
The extent of the devastation became evident by Friday, when the death count in Marion County in northwest Alabama rose from three to 21, according to the state Emergency Management Agency. It said 20 people were missing.
Marion County Sheriff Kevin Williams put the number even higher -- 29 people dead in the city of Hackleburg and six in Hamilton. The Hackleburg fatalities included 16 on the scene and 13 who died at several hospitals, he told CNN.
"It's pretty much wiped out," Williams said of the town. "It looks like a war zone."
The possible tornadoes destroyed a Wrangler clothing plant, a pharmacy, doctor's office and three schools, officials said.
Alabama suffered the greatest of loss of life, with fatalities in 19 counties confirmed by the state Emergency Management Agency. The agency reported Friday evening that the state's death toll had risen to at least 238.
Entire articleLink
That's the Elie, Manitoba, F5 from 2007. Some joker decided to retitle it and pass it off as his own...
But you're right; it barely moved at all, instead sitting and grinding in roughly the same spot for several minutes.
Thanks Nea. Live and learn. I should've known better since the supercells were moving 55-60 mph. Fascinating nonetheless.
No problem. It's one of the most fascinating videos of the last few years, and really shows the power of these things:
I can't contain myself with the .01 inches of rain in my forecast. On a positive note, SE Texas may finally see some rainfall.
Link
note system over P.R. at end of run
You got mail
My God! That is a chilling image. *SHUDDER*.
I've never been in a tornado, but I have been in a derecho, the 1995 Heat Wave event. For a 9yo boy that was terrifying, my mom's place has a row of ash trees along the west side of the building and we were worried that they were going to be blown onto our bedrooms.
It's really hard to grasp the amount of devastation from this storm, and I find it even crazier that just a couple hundred miles west of there the folks in Texas are suffering from a catastrophic drought.
Sure doesn't look like an F5 to me, looks more like an F2. It probably wouldn't have been rated that high in the U.S. I mean I know its not size that rates a tornado, but I have seen other small tornadoes that are high rated that look more violent then that one. I'm not saying its a weak tornado, its a tornado, it still is tearing stuff up. But I doubt its an F5 at all.
I saw another video of the tornado as well as the storm the spawned it. I am sometimes amazed at how thunderstorms in the far north can look so lame and still spawn solid tornadoes. That cell barely produced any rain and the convective clouds producing the storm were super high based and very dry and and very threatening.
Down here Ive seen storms almost everyday on the sea breeze that might make think the apocalypse is coming but don't produce tornadoes.
It shows you how the most important factor by far is dynamics supporting tornadoes and not the thunderstorms themselves.
However when you take ideal tornado conditions and mix them with very powerful super cells like the outbreak this past Wednesday, you have a perfect match for horrible tornadoes.
http://youtu.be/6UbkH-gIlDU
Watch the entire video, and you'll see the extreme violence. Several homes were wiped completely clean down to their concrete pads, and--as you can see--a large van with a full load of drywall was picked up and tossed several hundred yards. This was Canada's first F5 ever--and that nation sees several hundred tornadoes each year.
Here's one sample damage photo from this page: http://www.pbase.com/swp/elie_manitoba_torna do_damage
I've seen many photos of tornadic supercells here in the states that formed along the dryline so had very limited moisture to work with, yet nevertheless produced tornadoes (often with nearly invisible funnels) and/or huge hail. For instance, this supercell spawned a tornado:
If you've not spent any time in the spring on the plains east of the Rockies, you should do it sometime. The structure and behavior of the storms there is often completely different from the tropical ones we see in Florida.
45 in Tuscaloosa.
From CNN.
Nice to read back, ahh I love to listen and learn.
KEEPER- you been keeping up with the east side of the Pacific plate? slip-slide-GRIND, looks like GRIND is trying to take over, from the top of the baja peninsula, on down thru the west coast of south america.
--990 people were injured in just Tuscaloosa alone, overwhelming hospitals there.
--Insured property losses are expected to be as high as $5 billion, meaning that total losses could come in around double that. 10,000 buildings were destroyed.
--A million Alabamans are still without electricity this morning.
--The NWS has received reports of 211 tornadoes during the outbreak. Many of these have been confirmed already, but there are still many to go. If the 15% "rule" is applied, we'll wind up with 179 tornadoes. To equal the 1974 Super Outbreak, 30% or so will have to be rejected.
http://today.msnbc.msn.com/id/42834400/ns/weather / and other reports.
Today is 4-30-11. I think you meant April 29th, 2011.
Not to take ANYTHING away from the horrors of the week....
huh??
""Thanks
everyone for your kind words. Just a couple of things I'd like to answer that
people have had questions about. That buzzing...it's the radio station that went
out and I didn't turn it off. The crack in the windshield was already there. I
didn't get scared until toward the end of the video, when I could see the
tornado destroying things, and then I realized there were people over
there." ".......
1871br,1876,1878ts,1889br,1891tsbr,1893,1894br,18 96br,1898tsbr,1899,1900tsbr,1901tsbr,1901ts,1908ts br,
1910br,1916ts,1916,1928,1930br,1931ts,1931,1932,1 933tsbr,1938ts,1942ts,1947tsbr,1949tsbr,1956,1979t s
1981ts,1984tsbr,1989,1995br,1996-2br,1998,2004ts, 2007subts
38 times in 139yrs end of 2010
Names from list above
Betsy,Frederic,Gert,Klaus,Hugo,Bertha,Marilyn,Hor tense,Georges,Jeanne,Olga
Longest gap between storms
22 years 1956-1979
How often this area gets affected?
brushed or hit every 3.66 years
Average years between direct hurricane hits.( hurricane force winds for a few hours)
(10h)once every 13.90 years
Average MPH of hurricane hits. (based on advisories sustained winds, not gusts)
110 mph
Statistically when this area should be affected next
before the end of the 2011 season
This is just a statistical average & does not mean the area will be affected by that year
Last affected by
2007,December 11th Subtropical storm Olga passes over while developing with 45mph winds. Almost 12 inches in a couple of places, San Juan broke it's one day rain record. Approximately 20 principal roads blocked due to water and fallen trees. A rockslide killed one driver this dawn. Last count, almost 20 rivers and tributaries had overflown their banks. .
This areas hurricane past
1876 sept 13th 105mph from the east reports of 19 killed but historians suspect the spanish government withheld death toll & damage info.
1893 Aug 16th,115mph from the S.E
1899 A severe hurricane comes in from the ESE on Aug 8th. Winds at approach on SE Puerto Rico were est at 140mph. 3,369 deaths reported in Puerto Rico.Closest approach of eye to San Juan was approx 28 miles.
1916 Aug 22nd,press 29.44 92mph for 10 min Area of destruction was probably 45 or 50 miles wide and time or passing about two and a quarter hours from the ESE
1928 sept 13th, 160mph from the S.E, 135mph recorded for 5 min press 27.50 top gust 165mph 312 killed in puerto rico.Hotel palace & union club roofs blown off thousands of homes flattened. US president asking for help | Newspaper Article
1931 Sept 11th,85mph from the east
1932 Sept 27th,105mph from the east press 27.70 east of san juan gusts to 120mph 255 killed.75,000 homes destroyed Newspaper article
1956 Hurricane Betsy Aug 12th,90mph from the S.E
1960 Hurricane Donna not considered a direct hit passed 75 miles to the north causing heavy flooding & deaths in Puerto rico.more here
1989 Sept 18th, 125mph from the S.E Hurricane Hugo Passes just NE of San Juan with the core passing over Culebra causing extensive damage.
1998 Sept 21st,hurricane Georges 115mph over entire island just south of san juan from the ESE causes 2 bill dollars damage killing 12,heavier damage was to the east of here.In Puerto rico over 28,000 homes destroyed & 72,000 damaged
I think they are referring to the GW influence on it.
Related post: Are tornadoes getting stronger and more frequent? The answer is--we don't know.
Brian Williams and Jim Cantore believe that they know the answer. Tornadoes are getting strong and more frequent due to humans.
April 1-26 2011 New Record 453. Not counting the 27th tornadoes
April 1994 Old Record for April 267
May 2003 All time Record Month 543
It will be interesting to see if we can catch up to the all time record.
Source TWC Forbes
Good Morning, I heard the day before they ask Dr. Greg Forbes the same question. He say one we really didn't know but if you look back in history. About every 40-50 years we had outbreaks of massive tornado. So who knows what the anwser is.
PRELIMINARY DATA...
EVENT DATE: APRIL 27, 2011
EVENT TYPE: AT LEAST EF-4
ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS (MPH): AT LEAST 165
INJURIES/FATALITIES: AT LEAST 65 FATALITIES. OVER 1000 INJURIES.
EVENT START LOCATION AND TIME: 33.0297/-87.935 AT 443 PM
EVENT END LOCATION AND TIME: 33.6311/-86.7436 AT 614 PM
DAMAGE PATH LENGTH (IN MILES): APPROXIMATELY 80.3 MILES
DAMAGE WIDTH: 1.5 MILES CROSSING I-65
Those are a headline writer's words, not those of Williams or Cantore. Nobody with any scientific credibility or standing is pointing at this week's tornado outbreak and saying. "Yep, there's yer proof of global warming!"
However, as has been stated here and elsewhere about a thousand times, while no specific weather event can be blamed on GW, that warming likely sets the stage (or "loads the dice," as Dr. Masters puts it) for increasing, and increasingly extreme, weather events. Whether or not this week's outbreak is one of those is unknown at the time, though the growing number and severity of such events around the planet over the past decades--along with the very obvious warming--seems to bear out that theory.
Here's a good article that sums up things up: http://content.usatoday.com/communities/sciencefa ir/post/2011/04/tornadoes-severe-weather-climate-c hange-global-warming/1.
About the only thing as non-scientific as stating with absolute conviction that any particular severe weather event is a direct result of GW is stating with absolute conviction that any particular severe weather definitely is not a direct result of it. ;-)
"AT LEAST EF4." Remember, only a single instance of EF5 damage has to be found to classify a tornado as such. I believe they will find that.
65 fatalities and 1000 injuries at a minimum. That's incredible...
had images of evil weather conjurers waving magic sticks and chanting
Did you look at the tags to this video? Tornado in Elie storm official driving atlanta lightning prank ambulance accident winter car crash
I don;t see any of those things in this 27second clip. How do we report this as a re-titled video? People shouldn't get away with this crap, they did it to an old Scott McPartland video from Attica, KS from 2004 and claimed to be shot in Vilonia, AR . He has made a copyright claim to Youtube.
AFP - US meteorologists warned Thursday it would be a mistake to blame climate change for a seeming increase in tornadoes in the wake of deadly storms that have ripped through the US south.
And who has said that today?
No one, that's who.
However two high-level high-profile journalists have said that humans caused the tornado outbreak.
Defend them, if you can.
Have a good morning everyone!
Viewing: 251 - 301
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 — Blog Index