Tornadoes, huge hail pound the Midwest, but bring little Texas drought relief
Severe weather blasted the Midwest again yesterday, with NOAA's Storm Prediction Center logging 32 reports of tornadoes, 399 reports of damaging thunderstorm winds, and 325 instances of large hail (including softball-sized hail of 4.25 - 4.5" diameter in Clarkesville, MO and Stringtown, OK.) Fortunately, no deaths or injuries were reported from yesterday's storms. The storm also brought the heaviest snow so late in the season to Green Bay, Wisconsin--9.9 inches. This brought the seasonal total for Green Bay to 92.4", the third most on record.
The storm responsible will trek eastwards today, bringing the threat of severe weather to regions of the Southeast hard-hit by last week's remarkable tornado outbreak. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed a wide swath of the country from Eastern Texas to New Jersey under their "slight risk" for severe weather. According to the latest tornado tallies on the excellent Wikipedia page on the April 14 - 16 tornado outbreak, 128 tornadoes are confirmed to have occurred, with 39 of these strong EF-2 and EF-3 twisters. Remarkably, there have been no violent EF-4 or EF-5 tornadoes reported yet in 2011, despite the fact that the preliminary 2011 tornado count as compiled by SPC is 611, which will likely make 2011 the most active tornado season on record for this point in the year.
Figure 1. Satellite image taken at 8pm EDT on Tuesday, April 19, 2011, of the storm system that brought severe weather to the Midwest. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.
Figure 2. Severe weather outlook for today.
Yesterday's storms bring little drought relief for Texas
Yesterday's severe weather outbreak brought a few thunderstorms to the Dallas/Fort Worth area last night, with up to two inches of welcome rain falling in isolated areas. However, the rains missed the areas of Texas where the worst fires area burning, and strong winds associated with the spring storm helped whip up the fires. Winds will not be as strong today, and the latest 1 - 5 day rainfall forecasts show the possibility of isolated thunderstorms bringing drought relief to the same portions of Texas that benefited from last night's rains. These rains will not be enough to significantly slow down the record fires scorching Texas, though, and the latest 2-week forecast from the GFS model shows little chance of drought-busting rains over Texas into early May.
Figure 2. Total rainfall for North Texas from last night's storms brought only isolated drought relief.
Atlantic tropical disturbance
As a reminder that hurricane season is not that far away, an area of disturbed weather has formed in the Atlantic near 23N, 80W, about 700 miles northeast of Puerto Rico. This system is under a hefty 60 knots of wind shear, but does have a surface circulation. The disturbance's heavy thunderstorm activity has been removed well to the northeast of the surface circulation center by the high wind shear. The storm is expected to move northwest into a region of lower wind shear on Thursday and Friday, and should begin building more heavy thunderstorms during the next three days. The storm is not a threat to any land areas, and will likely be ripped apart by high wind shear this weekend. It has perhaps a 10% chance of becoming a subtropical depression before then. Climatology argues against this storm becoming the first named storm of the year; there has only been once named April storm in the Atlantic since 1851, Tropical Storm Ana of 2003.
Figure 4. Morning satellite image of the Atlantic tropical disturbance 700 miles northeast of Puerto Rico.
Jeff Masters
Wildcat Fire near San Angelo, Texas. Pictures taken between 3 and 4 pm just to the south and east of Orient, Texas.
Reader Comments
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Yes, I'm aware of the knowledge here, for sure....best place to be during the season....at the time I posted the question, blog was very slow...and I was studying the sattelite....., but never fear...I'm learning...always :) TY Plaza
Interesting. And needed. The more we know about these things and the quicker the better. :)
Thank you!
It's not yet tropical, and it likely will only be able to acquire shallow warm-core charactistics and be subtropical, but not fully tropical. Subtropical cyclones do not rely fully on tropical processes and thus don't have to draw as much energy from the ocean to sustain themselves. Thus, the 26C rule is generally lowered to about 23C for subtropical cyclones.
Dennis
Katrina
Rita
Stan
Wilma
Expect convection to lose its punch after sunset with loss of heating. Just slight chances for thunder will persist through the midnight hour before the boundary begins to lift northward away from US...taking focus with it. Some low stratus will develop over much of the area around and after midnight...helping to keep temperatures a good ten to fifteen degrees above normal overnight.
The rest of the forecast is much less exciting as ridging builds in and the cap strengthens. GFS brings in a weak wave early next week...but timing and strength are still very much in question so will favor ongoing forecast for continuity. The pattern of well above normal temperatures appears likely to continue well into next week.
Thank You, Beell....I see..BTW..your blog is on my favorite blogs list...I read a lot..:)
With all due respects.
If this little Dr. Jekyll fellow wanders over to the tepid gulf then it might grow into a bit of a Mr. Hyde.
Then again the strict 'administrators of sheer,' might just call the Deuce?
It's unlikely it would be able to combat the shear in the Gulf of Mexico if it were to get there.
Thanks very much to Everybody for their comments and information imparted.
3am, in Europe and although all is very exciting, Hasta Manana. y Que Sera Sera, { What will be, will BE!}
Goodnight....mean morning, Plaza...sleep well...
YW, EYES. There is a WUnderful world here to browse through. Always something to catch your eye/curiosity/imagination/anger/laughter/sorrow/et c/etc
Subtropical Cyclone:
A non-frontal low pressure system that has characteristics of both tropical and extratropical cyclones. This system is typically an upper-level cold low with circulation extending to the surface layer and maximum sustained winds generally occurring at a radius of about 100 miles or more from the center. In comparison to tropical cyclones, such systems have a relatively broad zone of maximum winds that is located farther from the center, and typically have a less symmetric wind field and distribution of convection.
The fact is that there are no fronts (if there is any frontal zone it is removed northeast of the center at this point), and it has a closed circulation with gale-force winds that are actually near the center, more organized than most subtropical entities.
So the question becomes, what is preventing its classification? Likely consistency and duration at this point, as the NHC likes to sit on these things for 12-24 hours before classifying them, and even then they sometimes don't seem to follow their own criteria, so we'll see.
Very objective observation.
Just click the IR-NHC button on top to see the image.
Link
MARK
23.69N/60.11W
POSS COC COLLAPSE
It is. It eliminates any toying with other subjective interpretations. If it's non-frontal, over tropically-warm water, has a closed circulation with gales, then it deserves a name based on the accepted criteria.
If a system gets 35 to 38 points, a TCFA may be issued depending on Dvorak trends, and if a system gets 39 points or more a TCFA should be issued.
Surface
Condition Points
A circulation is evident using visible satellite, shortwave infrared, microwave imagery or QuikSCAT/Windsat ambiguities 3 points
A circulation has been evident for at least 24 hours 5 points
A westerly surface- or gradient-level wind of 5 kt that is within 200 nm (370 km, 230 mi) south of the centre of the disturbance 5 points
Any wind associated with the system is at least 20 kt 2 points
Any wind associated with the system is at least 25 kt 3 points
Any wind associated with the system is at least 30 kt 4 points
A weather station within 200 nm of the system has reported had a pressure drop of 2 mb over 24 hours 3 points
A weather station within 200 nm of the system has had a pressure drop of 3 mb over 24 hours 4 points
The estimated MSLP of the system is less than 1010 to 1009 mb 3 points
The estimated MSLP of the system is 1008 mb or less 4 points
500 mb height
Condition Points
There is evidence of at least an inverted trough 2 points
There is evidence of a closed circulation in the system 4 points
200 mb height
Condition Points
Westerly flow of at least 15 kt over the disturbance -4 points
There is evidence of anticyclonic outflow over the centre of the disturbance 4 points
Easterly flow of at most 20 kt over the disturbance 3 points
Sea surface temperature
Condition Points
The sea surface temperature is 26 Celsius (78.8 Fahrenheit) or higher 3 points
Satellite data
Condition Points
The system has persisted for at least 24 hours 3 points
The system has persisted for at least 48 hours 4 points
The system has persisted for at least 72 hours 5 points
The system has a Dvorak classification of T1.0 to T1.5 from all three agencies (TAFB, SAB, AFWA) 3 points
The system has a Dvorak classification of T1.5 to T2.0 from all three agencies 5 points
The Dvorak final-T number has decreased by T0.5 to T1.0 from two or more agencies -2 points
Miscellaneous
Condition Points
The cloud system is north (or south) of 5 degrees latitude 3 points
The tropical system is within 72 hours of reaching a Department of Defense resource 3 points
The cloud system center and the satellite centre fixes for the system are within 2 degrees of each other 2 points
************************************************* *********
Sad, that.
Embarrassing as well, I should imagine.
Link
I see it spinning, but not much in terms of convection.
That is good to see....here's wishing it will spread over a large area.....maybe it is a sign of more rain to come.....hopefully
Grothar, that IS a good link....have saved..TY :)
earlier
Haha, yeah, way too early, makes you wonder how the rest of the season is going to be...
But I believe I read somewhere that an active early season doesn't mean its going to be active during the reast of it. I think... XD
Thanks Eyes! From your mouth to God's ears!
I believe with the extremely high wind shear, they might be holding off on naming it.
If you are a good girl this year, I will show you the trick on how to post the images. It really is a good site. Right now it is not working properly. Seems as if many of the sites are not in good working order.
Sures sounds nice to be called a girl again....:} You're so kind......
There ya go....Keeper said so !! I'm just glad this last system was and still is north of me......right now anyway....
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