Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting Patrap:
co2now.org


391.19 ppm



What the world needs to watch

Global warming is mainly the result of CO2 levels rising in the Earth’s atmosphere. Both atmospheric CO2 and climate change are accelerating. Climate scientists say we have years, not decades, to stabilize CO2 and other greenhouse gases.

To help the world succeed, CO2Now.org makes it easy to see the most current CO2 level and what it means. So, use this site and keep an eye on CO2. Invite others to do the same. Then we can do more to send CO2 in the right direction.

Watch CO2 now and know the score on global warming, practically in real time.

And, this also lets us know just how close we're getting to that "2100 worst case scenario" chart showing us reaching 900ppm in the next 89 years.

As of now, we're only 508.81ppm away.

The Biggest Control Knob: CO2 in Earth's Climate History

Posted by: JeffMasters, 4:05 PM CDT on March 24, 2010

Quoting Patrap:
When you increase Global Temps,,you increase Global WV at a Given rate.

The archived entries of the author here explained that some time back.

Which implies smaller dewpoint depressions, but does not necessarily imply an increase in precipitation.

Posted by: JeffMasters, 4:05 PM CDT on March 24, 2010

How sensitive is climate to a doubling of CO2?
The IPCC report talks extensively about computer climate models' calculations of "climate sensitivity"--how much Earth's climate would warm if CO2 doubled from pre-industrial levels of 280 ppm, to 560 ppm (we're currently at 390 ppm). A mid-range number from the 2007 IPCC report often used by climatologists is that the climate sensitivity is 3°C for a doubling of CO2. Dr. Alley takes a look at what paleoclimate has to say about the climate sensitivity to CO2. "The models actually do pretty well when you compare them to the past. The best fit is 2.8°C.

Dr. Alley concludes, "Where we really stand now, is, we're not quite at the pound on the table, this story is very clearly not done. But an increasing body of science indicates that CO2 has been the most important controller of global average climate of the Earth."

I'll have a new post Sunday or Monday.

Jeff Masters

Quoting hcubed:


And, at the same time, there's this from NOAA:

Can Record Snowstorms And Global Warming Coexist?

"...Still, bitter cold temperatures and blizzards of historic proportions prompted the questions: Why were there so many historic snowstorms in the mid-Atlantic region this winter? Are they evidence that global warming isn’t happening?

No, the globe is warming. But the real story behind the mid-Atlantic’s winter isn’t about climate change, it’s about climate variability. Climate variability, the term scientists use, explains why record-breaking snowstorms and global warming can coexist. In fact, many of the weather events observed this winter help to confirm our understanding of the climate system, including links between weather and climate.

And the continuing story:

Forensic Meteorology Solves the Mystery of Record Snows

"...After a series of record-setting snowstorms hit the mid-Atlantic region this winter, some people asked NOAA if humans could somehow be to blame. Specifically, they wanted to know if human-induced global warming could have caused the snowstorms due to the fact that a warmer atmosphere holds more water vapor.

The CSI Team’s analysis indicates that’s not likely. They found no evidence — no human “fingerprints” — to implicate our involvement in the snowstorms. If global warming was the culprit, the team would have expected to find a gradual increase in heavy snowstorms in the mid-Atlantic region as temperatures rose during the past century. But historical analysis revealed no such increase in snowfall. Nor did the CSI team find any indication of an upward trend in winter precipitation along the eastern seaboard..."

Wow. And from NOAA, too. Gotta believe them, they ARE the experts, after all...

It would be interesting to read any new data; with back-to-back winters featuring record or near-record snowfall events, I wonder whether they'd find any evidence of such "fingerprints"...

Quoting cchsweatherman:
BREAKING NEWS: According to Frank Strait's fan page on Facebook, Joe Bastardi is now gone from Accuweather. Below is the post from Frank's page.

Let me go ahead and say now that I can't really answer any questions about the departure of Joe Bastardi from AccuWeather. Besides, I really don't know anything about it, anyway, except that it's happened.

Perhaps he left to focus on his weightlifting career--that is, if Faux doesn't give him a show...

Quoting cchsweatherman:
BREAKING NEWS: According to Frank Strait's fan page on Facebook, Joe Bastardi is now gone from Accuweather. Below is the post from Frank's page.

Let me go ahead and say now that I can't really answer any questions about the departure of Joe Bastardi from AccuWeather. Besides, I really don't know anything about it, anyway, except that it's happened.

Then let me explain a tad what was his downfall,

The World of Meteorology will be crushed as will a few blogger's here as well.

His mouth overrided common sense on a daily basis.

So his departure is welcome by many.

Maybe he can get a gig on FOX.

Ciao ,Joe


From 2 Months ago,

Long wrong Joe Bastardi cooks the books to smear NSIDC. Time for Accuweather to fire him.
National Snow & Ice Data Center explains Bastardi can't read graphs and "is unclear as to how standardized anomalies are derived"
December 5, 2010

UPDATE: Bastardi responded in the comments here. He couldnt bring himself to admit that his accusation of fraud against NSIDC was not merely completely unwarranted but totally inappropriate and in fact based in part on his simple misreading of a graph. Finally, though, on Sunday afternoon, Accuweather took the post down and Bastardi admits in his new Emily Litella post his charge was baseless.

Quoting beell:


No, I think they're saying there is no detectable increase in heavy snowstorms in the mid-­Atlantic region.

No, they're saying there's no increase in overall snowfall precipitation; the PDF doesn't mention individual snowfall events--which, by the way, have been increasing in frequency and severity.

Quoting Patrap:


Then let me explain a tad what was his downfall,

The World of Meteorology will be crushed as will a few blogger's here as well.

His mouth overrided common sense on a daily basis.

So his departure is welcome by many.

Maybe he can get a gig on FOX.

Ciao ,Joe


From 2 Months ago,

Long wrong Joe Bastardi cooks the books to smear NSIDC. Time for Accuweather to fire him.
National Snow & Ice Data Center explains Bastardi can't read graphs and "is unclear as to how standardized anomalies are derived"
December 5, 2010

UPDATE: Bastardi responded in the comments here. He couldnt bring himself to admit that his accusation of fraud against NSIDC was not merely completely unwarranted but totally inappropriate and in fact based in part on his simple misreading of a graph. Finally, though, on Sunday afternoon, Accuweather took the post down and Bastardi admits in his new Emily Litella post his charge was baseless.

Very well put Patrap. It was bound to happen considering his horrible reputation and obvious lack of objectivity and substantial knowledge.

Quoting Neapolitan:

No, they're saying there's no increase in overall snowfall precipitation; the PDF doesn't mention individual snowfall events--which, by the way, have been increasing in frequency and severity.

Just tryin' to stay on topic.


Our analysis of observational records indicates the principal factor resonsible for the record snowfall along the metropolitan corridor of the mid-Atlantic was the comingled impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and El Nino, both features of natural climate variability.

(am getting a kick out of the Joe B news fwiw!)

#211.


Fascinating.

Wrong,,but still fascinating.


800,000 Year Record of Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Concentrations

JB is a brilliant meteorologist. People like him are completely entitled to their opinions on AGW, and that should never be a reason to fire him. His long-range forecasts are forecasts that nobody else dares to make, and he's right a good portion of the time. His main focus in his job has nothing to do with AGW, but weather forecasting for the U.S. and Europe, which he has done a very fine job of. JB is only subjective in some aspects of his AGW beliefs, but as a meteorologist he is one of the best in the business. Tarnishing his name here only tarnishes yours, as many people speaking in this blog have shown tremendous inability to be objective and fair.

Quoting Levi32:
JB is a brilliant meteorologist. People like him are completely entitled to their opinions on AGW, and that should never be a reason to fire him. His long-range forecasts are forecasts that nobody else dares to make, and he's right a good portion of the time. His main focus in his job has nothing to do with AGW, but weather forecasting for the U.S. and Europe, which he has done a very fine job of. JB is only subjective in some aspects of his AGW beliefs, but as a meteorologist he is one of the best in the business. Tarnishing his name here only tarnishes yours, as many people speaking in this blog have shown tremendous inability to be objective and fair.

I've often stated that JB is a good met, or at least probably above average, at least in the short-term. But I don't think most of those here and elsewhere have a problem with his weather forecasting abilities; it's the way he pretends to have a level of expertise in climatology that he demonstrably doesn't. Yes, he's entitled to his opinions on AGW--but he shouldn't constantly try to use his credibility in meteorology to pass himself off as a climatologist.

!

Quoting AussieStorm:
2011-02-21 23:51:42 (M 6.3) SOUTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND -43.5 172.6 (bdfc)%u200F

== PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE REPORT ==



Region: SOUTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND
Geographic coordinates: 43.513S, 172.638E
Magnitude: 6.3 M
Depth: 4 km
Universal Time (UTC): 21 Feb 2011 23:51:42
Time near the Epicenter: 22 Feb 2011 12:51:42
Local standard time in your area: 21 Feb 2011 23:51:42

Location with respect to nearby cities:
5 km (3 miles) NNW (330 degrees) of Christchurch, New Zealand
211 km (131 miles) SSE (157 degrees) of Westport, New Zealand
304 km (189 miles) SW (215 degrees) of WELLINGTON, New Zealand

Is this earthquake close to the location of the magnitude 7.0 that struck in December?

Quoting cchsweatherman:


Is this earthquake close to the location of the magnitude 7.0 that struck in December?

Yes
But this 1 has been more destructive.
People are trapped under rubble. Office building have collapsed, Christchurch Cathedral has partially colaapsed. Art center and Telecom Building have taken big hit and have major damage

Quoting AussieStorm:

Yes
But this 1 has been more destructive.
People are trapped under rubble. Office building have collapsed, Christchurch Cathedral has partially colaapsed. Art center and Telecom Building have taken big hit and have major damage

Wow. Really hope that the people aren't seriously harmed or killed in the rubble. Keep us updated on the situation.

Quoting RecordSeason:



Don't know what to say. Whole heartedly disagree.

CO2 is an insignificant fraction of any warming that is occurring.

Black asphault and insulated glass play a much larger role than CO2.

If we use round numbers, and the U.S. has 2 million miles of roads, and we use an average width of 22ft, assuming it averages out to standard 2 lane roads, and convert to metric, that comes to:

21.55 billion square meters.

At 1000watts/m^2 and a near-zero albedo, we have:

21.55 terawatts sunlight absorbed, which is actually about 1/3rd more than the rate of "energy use" of the entire world combined.

We have not even considered roads in other nations, but there is more than enough to make up for the fact I am using round numbers. I rounded the amount of roads down, and only used the assumption of 2 lanes. I used only U.S. public paved roads, and did not count private paved roads or parking lots.

WE have not considered our black roof tops yet.

We have not yet considered our insulated glass windows on countless buildings, which we then cool after the fact, all while the light gets in and heats things up and is trapped as heat "somewhere" in molecules in the buildings, etc.

To the bold, HOW? How do you know this. I ask only for evidence. You state these claims, but you have no evidence as to how you know which one has more of an effect than the other.

I agree the urban heat effect/change of the surface of our planet has a big role in our temperatures...but you do not know how much of a role it has in our temperatures. AND, you do not know how much a role CO2 plays in the global temperatures.

Until you know both of these, you can't say which has a greater effect.

Quoting AussieStorm:
2011-02-21 23:51:42 (M 6.3) SOUTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND -43.5 172.6 (bdfc)%u200F

== PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE REPORT ==



Region: SOUTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND
Geographic coordinates: 43.513S, 172.638E
Magnitude: 6.3 M
Depth: 4 km
Universal Time (UTC): 21 Feb 2011 23:51:42
Time near the Epicenter: 22 Feb 2011 12:51:42
Local standard time in your area: 21 Feb 2011 23:51:42

Location with respect to nearby cities:
5 km (3 miles) NNW (330 degrees) of Christchurch, New Zealand
211 km (131 miles) SSE (157 degrees) of Westport, New Zealand
304 km (189 miles) SW (215 degrees) of WELLINGTON, New Zealand

Many reports of injuries and property damage in Christchurch (3 miles SSE of the epicenter).

Text updates

Quoting Neapolitan:

Many reports of injuries and property damage in Christchurch (3 miles SSE of the epicenter).

Text updates

Pictures starting to show up. Link

Lots of Twitter info Link

Quoting twincomanche:


Give me a break. Accuweather mainly wants subscriptions and advertising revenue.

Yea well you won't get either of those when you have a met on your site making ridiculous claims which tarnish your site's reputation.

The only reason he lasted so long is because he's pretty good at forecasting.

Sad news:

"2.07pm The police have confirmed multiple fatalities from today's quake."

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_i d=1&objectid=10707997

20-30second quake
waterfalls shooting out of ground
big cracks in roads
quake epicenter 5kms from Christchurch
people in streets hugging in fear and shock
next week is 6month from 7.1 quake
4000 aftershocks from the 7.1 quake on 9th september
chuch has collapsed
hospital has been eveacuated
some building have collasped

engineers are assessing shopping center that was slightly damaged in 7.1 fearing it could collapse
alot of structural damage
quake has been felt 50kms away in Paraparaumu
which is nw of wellington
another aftershock right now
slight rumbles can be felt
6 aftershocks in the last 15mins
house have been shaking 250kms from epicenter. plates falling of shelves
reports of cracks appearing infront of peoples eyes
landslides have fallen on houses
and have not looked at the news
6.3 quake... depth 5km... epicenter 5kms from Christchurch
Main chuch has been severely damaged
airport has been damaged
stock on shelves in stores thrown off shelves
building just collapsed live on tv
did you get it
cars have been crushed
no reports of injuries or deaths yet
5.6 aftershock... depth 6km.. epicenter...11kms from christchurch
people are trapped in the Christchurch Cathedral people are trapped
1 man is trapped up to his waist in concrete
live reporter just felt another aftershock
this quake is much worse than 7.1 september quake.
spetember quake was a rumble, this quake was a real thud

1 office building has totally colasped
art ceter and telecom building have taken bit hits
people inside council chamber have been thrown to the ground by some distance from where they were standing
liquifaction is a major problem
New Zealand prime Minister will have press conference soon
Quake struck at 1:30pm New Zealand time
traffic is blocked all around the christchurch area

Quoting twincomanche:
...there is no agreement with the "real experts".

Absolutely and demonstrably untrue.

Quoting AussieStorm:
20-30second quake
waterfalls shooting out of ground
big cracks in roads
quake epicenter 5kms from Christchurch
people in streets hugging in fear and shock
next week is 6month from 7.1 quake
4000 aftershocks from the 7.1 quake on 9th september
chuch has collapsed
hospital has been eveacuated
some building have collasped

engineers are assessing shopping center that was slightly damaged in 7.1 fearing it could collapse
alot of structural damage
quake has been felt 50kms away in Paraparaumu
which is nw of wellington
another aftershock right now
slight rumbles can be felt
6 aftershocks in the last 15mins
house have been shaking 250kms from epicenter. plates falling of shelves
reports of cracks appearing infront of peoples eyes
landslides have fallen on houses
and have not looked at the news
6.3 quake... depth 5km... epicenter 5kms from Christchurch
Main chuch has been severely damaged
airport has been damaged
stock on shelves in stores thrown off shelves
building just collapsed live on tv
did you get it
cars have been crushed
no reports of injuries or deaths yet
5.6 aftershock... depth 6km.. epicenter...11kms from christchurch
people are trapped in the Christchurch Cathedral people are trapped
1 man is trapped up to his waist in concrete
live reporter just felt another aftershock
this quake is much worse than 7.1 september quake.
spetember quake was a rumble, this quake was a real thud

1 office building has totally colasped
art ceter and telecom building have taken bit hits
people inside council chamber have been thrown to the ground by some distance from where they were standing
liquifaction is a major problem
New Zealand prime Minister will have press conference soon
Quake struck at 1:30pm New Zealand time
traffic is blocked all around the christchurch area

This is bad, real bad.

Quoting RecordSeason:


Actually, I have shown videos which demonstrated the incredible power of somethng as simple as a color change, which is far, FAR more powerful and immediate than anything imaginable from CO2.

Observe the power of black paint, absorbing so much light that it heats the target to 80f above ambient, and heats forced air to 45f above ambient. No insulation involved.

The power of black paint. Skip to 11:00 mark for the good stuff.

The air is being pumped by a vacuum cleaner running reverse cycle, and it gets so hot it burns his hands as he tries to measure the temperature.

This is in open air with no insulation.

Compared to THIS, CO2 is chump change and does not even matter.

You can also check my claims regarding asphault for yourself, especially in a few months as we get into spring and summer.

Thermal camera. Pavement is 23 degrees above ambient. Car dash is 150f with the windows DOWN.

Yes, I have seen them before. But I still didnt see where you calculated the total temperature effect of all the co2 in our atmosphere. Or where you calculated the total temperature effect of the changed surface of the earth...

once again, until you know both you can't go out and claim one is a greater effect than the other.

Quick question - For area code 44281, Tuesday, 2/22/11, 4 AM, temp/dew point is 16/13 with 91% humidity. At 10 PM same day the temp/dew point is 16/13 but the humidity is 83%. Why is this? Thought that temp/dew point was the same/similar as dry bulb/wet bulb which should equate to the same humidity. Would appreciate some explaination as to how humidity is determined/calculated for this site. I am of the impression that relative humidity is in theory the vapor pressure of water in the atmosphere at a given temperature divided by the vapor pressure of water at that temperature. All other methods are for ease of measurement with correlation to the theoritical value. Would appreciate some clarification. Thank you.

Maybe Bastardi is Lurking as we blog here now..?

Joe,,come in Joe

Over ?






Bueller?

Quoting JFLORIDA:
221 ABSOLUTELY if you are not an expert you need to be citing as much current research as possible and attempting to understand the science better. Especially in areas of consensus among the real experts.

Glad we all agree.

Oh. So we're not allowed to study or consider the research of anything outside of the "consensus?" I didn't know that. I guess the consensus must always be right. I'll be sure to consult them and only them from now on.

"2.19pm - Regarding reports of fatalities, Prime Minister John Key said "at this stage we can't comment. We simply don't know but we know there's been major buildings have collapsed. We have reports of people in the vicinity at the time."

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_i d=1&objectid=10707997

Live Broadcast by Ustream.TV

On another note well well well just when I thought we would get absoluty nothing from this storm the snow totals have been upped.Well what a surprise.Snow totals could go up again possibly 4-8 inches.I'm very surprised.

Quoting twincomanche:


Not to start a argument on this display of brotherly love but you must give me just one example of settled science from particle theory, to climate, to mass extinctions to the probability of intelligent life out there to...........need I go on?

You didn't say "settled"; you said "there is no agreement with the 'real experts'"--and that is, as I said, a patently and provably false statement.