La Niña weaker; may be gone by summer
A significant shift is occurring in the Equatorial waters of the Eastern Pacific off the coast of South America, where the tell-tale signs of the end to the current La Niña event are beginning to show up. A borderline moderate/strong La Niña event has been underway since last summer, with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) about 1.5°C below average over a wide stretch of the Equatorial Pacific. These cool SSTs have altered the course of the jet stream and have had major impacts on the global atmosphere. The La Niña has been partially responsible for some of the extreme flooding events in recent months, such as the floods in Australia, Sri Lanka, and Colombia. La Niña is also largely to blame for the expanding drought over the southern states of the U.S. But in the last few weeks, SSTs in the Equatorial Pacific have undergone a modest warm-up, and these temperatures are now about 1.2°C below average. A region of above-average warmth has appeared immediately adjacent to the coast of South America--often a harbinger of the end to a La Niña event. An animation of SSTs since late November shows this developing warm tongue nicely. Springtime is the most common time for a La Niña event to end; since 1950, half of all La Niñas ended in March, April, or May. The weakness displayed by the current La Niña event has prompted NOAA's Climate Predictions Center to give a 50% chance that La Niña will be gone by June. If La Niña does rapidly wane, this should help reduce the chances for a continuation of the period of high-impact floods and droughts that have the affected the world in recent months.
Figure 1. A comparison of the the departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average between this week and two months ago shows that a tongue of warmer-than-average waters has appeared off the coast of South America, possibly signaling the beginning of the end of the current La Niña event. Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.
What does this mean for hurricane season?
As many of you know, the phase of the El Niño/La Niña is critical for determining how active the Atlantic hurricane season is. La Niña or neutral conditions promote very active Atlantic hurricane seasons, while El Niños sharply reduce Atlantic hurricane activity, by increasing wind shear. Will the probable demise of La Niña this spring allow an El Niño to take its place by this fall? Well, don't get your hopes up. Since 1950, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center records that there have been sixteen La Niña events during February (26% of all years.) In half of those years, La Niña was still active during the August - September - October peak of Atlantic hurricane season, six (38%) transitioned to neutral conditions, and only two (12%) made it all the way to El Niño. So historically, the odds do not favor a transition to El Niño by hurricane season. The latest set of computer model forecasts of El Niño/La Niña (Figure 2) also reflect this. Only two of the sixteen models predict El Niño conditions by hurricane season.
Figure 2. Predictions made in January 2011 of the evolution of El Niño/La Niña over the coming year shows that only two of the sixteen models predict El Niño conditions by hurricane season, while four predict La Niña and ten predict neutral conditions. Image credit: Columbia University IRI.
I'll have a new post by Thursday.
Jeff Masters
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Tropical Cyclone Advice #9
TROPICAL CYCLONE DIANNE (16U)
12:00 PM WST February 17 2011
==========================================
At 11:00 am WST, Tropical Cyclone Dianne, Category Two (978 hPa) located at 19.3S 111.7E, or 385 km northwest of Exmouth and 650 km north northwest of Carnarvon has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as stationary.
Tropical Cyclone Dianne remains near stationary well off the northwest coast. Diane is expected to drift slowly south during Thursday and Friday. If it moves closer to the coast GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop in coastal areas between Exmouth and Coral Bay late on Thursday or Friday, and may extend east to Onslow and south to Overlander Roadhouse on Friday. If Diane takes a more south easterly track DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts in excess of 125 kilometres per hour may occur between Coral Bay and Overlander Roadhouse later Friday and Saturday.
Tides along the entire west coast will be higher than normal over the next few days. Tides between Onslow and Shark Bay are likely to exceed the high water mark with flooding of low lying coastal areas possible.
Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
================================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Exmouth to Coral Bay.
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Onslow to Exmouth and CoralBay to Overlander, including Carnarvon and Denham.
The next tropical cyclone advice from Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center on Tropical Cyclone Dianne will be issued at 7:00 AM UTC..
CANBERRA (Dow Jones)--Indicators in the Pacific Basin show a strong, mature La Nina is continuing, but there are clear signs the weather event has passed its peak, including a fall of a key indicator, the Australian government's Bureau of Meteorology said Tuesday.
The bureau reported subsurface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean have warmed while atmospheric indicators such as the SOI (Southern Oscillation Index), trade winds and cloud patterns have eased from peaks reached about a month ago.
The bureau's SOI--a key measure of the weather event--has been positive since early April but in recent times has been trending lower; it measured +17 in the 30 days ended Feb. 13, down from a monthly SOI in January of +20. The five-month running mean for the SOI centered on November was +21.Sustained positive values of the SOI above +8 may indicate a La Nina event.
The Australia information dovetails well with my colleague Mike Palmerino's tracking of the eastern Pacific sea surface temperatures. In a blog last week, Mike pointed out that the January eastern Pac temps had warmed notably, from a -1.2 reading for December to a -0.6 degree Celsius value for January.
Well, the first half of February has continued that warming trend. Mike's numbers for the first half of February now show a departure at a PLUS (+) 0.1 degree Celsius relative to normal in the eastern Pacific.
This development is significant--after all, the La Nina of 2010-11 was the strongest since 'way back in 1917 or so. As for its implications, as Mike noted last week--if this trend continues into the spring and the La Nina ends, it could allow for more precipitation to develop in the dry areas of the southwest Plains winter wheat areas and would lessen the risk of dry weather this summer in the western Midwest (west of the Mississippi River). And in South America, a weakening La Nina would probably allow for additional late-season rain in Argentina's soybean belt, along with reducing the heavy rain chances in Mato Grosso, Brazil--which would be beneficial for soybean harvest.
Bryce Anderson DTN Ag Meteorologist and DTN Analyst
Why would I want my phone to replace my computer? Phones are for talking, and because the device is so small, it shouldn't replace the computer.
However the capabilities certainly are amazing don't get me wrong, the massive exponential increase in technology is certainly a good thing for us weather freaks :)
I just don't know about that whole phone replacing the computer, but that's just me. I like technology, but I don't have technology do the thinking and work for me like people increasingly are today.
That's a pretty good theory. Accept I don't plan on becoming an engineer or a nurse. Does that make me a problem for America?
Are you planning on being an engineer or a nurse?
Good Lord! What the heck is wrong with our Government?
Dang the NWS is headed backwards towards the stone age just in time while I'm working on my MET degree.
Essentially this means because of idiots when I get a job as a meteorologist in the future that means I'll be working with less technology then is currently in place?
And I thought we were progressing... What amazingly more important thing is the government gonna be concentrating its funding on in place of that, let me guess, probably studying cow flatulence...
Which politicians of the House are part of this? I'm extremely mad! Let me guess, the far right?
I'm all for budgets when it comes to pointless government spending, but common, that's one of the areas where government money is needed!
Your PC (handle docs, spreadsheets, presentations, emails, internet and so on)
Your multimedia device (handle your music in any format, video, photos, recordings .....)
and also...
handle your contacts, appointments, alarms, video games, schedules, databases, hobbies, shopping, deposits, credit cards, bank transactions, mutual funds, investments and so on....
With today's cellphone technology, That is possible....
Seems like It's just an economic national interest problem....
Seems like China related......
I'm a Christian, if they actually read the Bible, I'm pretty sure they wouldn't be extreme right wingers. I don't think the practice of homosexuality is right, but that's between them and God. I know some gay people, and I may not think that life style is right, but we all got sin and problems so why should they be treated less? Homosexuals should be treated with the same respect as a fellow Christian who upholds marriage between a man and a woman. We are all people, if anyone pays attention to what God actually says, there's absolutely no excuse for hate, racism, and forcing others to conform to what you believe.
As for Pat Robertson, I didn't know anyone still payed attention to anything he says... lol
But this is weather blog, not a political/religious blog, so I'm done
Additionally screen size is an issue, I like having a large screen size when looking at pictures or browsing the Internet.
Tropical Cyclone Advice #17
TROPICAL LOW, FORMER CARLOS (17U)
5:00 PM CST February 17 2011
===============================================
At 3:30 pm CST, Tropical Low, Former Carlos (995 hPa) [Overland] located at 13.3S 130.8E, or 100 km south of Darwin and 175 km northeast of Port Keats has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 3 knots.
Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.5/W1.0/24HRS
Ex-Tropical Cyclone Carlos is expected to continue moving southwest and may move into the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf early on Saturday.
GALES are not expected in coastal areas within the next 24 hours, however gales could develop between Daly River Mouth in the NT and Kulumburu in WA, if the system moves over water on Saturday.
Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
====================================
A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal areas from Daly River Mouth in the Northern Territory to Kalumburu in Western Australia, including Kununurra and Wyndham
Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 13.6S 130.4E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS: 14.0S 130.0E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS: 14.6S 128.9E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS: 15.8S 126.8E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
Additional Information
========================
System over land. Structure weakening on radar and satellite imagery. Position fair, based on radar animation and surface observations.
There is still a well-developed circulation is evident to 500hPa. Strongly divergent 200hPa flow over the system ahead of a weak upper trough to the south; good outflow in northern sectors with weak shear indicate further development potential if the system were to move over water.
The consensus of numerical guidance suggests a continued southwest movement as the mid-level subtropical ridge to the south weakens and move east. This track may bring the system over the waters of the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf early on Saturday.
The next tropical cyclone advice from Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center on Tropical Low Carlos will be issued at 13:00 PM UTC..
Tropical Cyclone Advice #10
TROPICAL CYCLONE DIANNE (16U)
3:00 PM WST February 17 2011
==========================================
At 2:00 pm WST, Tropical Cyclone Dianne, Category Two (978 hPa) located at 19.2S 111.4E, or 415 km northwest of Exmouth and 670 km north northwest of Carnarvon has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as stationary.
Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS
Storm Force Winds
==================
40 NM from the center
Gale Force Winds
=================
90 NM from the center
Tropical Cyclone Dianne remains near stationary well off the northwest coast. Diane is expected to drift slowly south overnight tonight and during Friday. If it moves closer to the coast GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop in coastal areas between Exmouth and Coral Bay on Friday, extending south to Overlander Roadhouse during Saturday. If Diane takes a more south easterly track DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts in excess of 125 kilometres per hour may occur between Coral Bay and Overlander Roadhouse on Saturday.
Tides along the entire west coast will be higher than normal over the next few days. Tides between Onslow and Shark Bay are likely to exceed the high water mark with flooding of low lying coastal areas possible.
A Flood Warning is current for the Gascoyne, Murchison and Greenough Rivers and a Flood Watch is current for the Irwin River. Flooding is also expected in other areas of Western Australia. Please refer to the full list of Flood Watches and Warnings at www.bom.gov.au
Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
================================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Exmouth to Coral Bay.
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Onslow to Exmouth and Coral Bay to Overlander Roadhouse, including Carnarvon and Denham, including Carnarvon and Denham.
Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 19.9S 111.2E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 20.8S 110.8E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 23.0S 111.0E - 75 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS: 27.3S 112.5E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
Additional Information
=======================
Deep convection has persisted to the northwest of the LLCC as the system continues to experience southeast shear of around 20 knots. Satellite imagery shows good equatorward outflow. Curved band wrap of 0.8-0.9 has been sustained on recent visible images. MET agrees and FT is set at 3.5. ADT is also running at 3.5. Latest ASCAT pass does not indicate winds above 45 knots but resolution and wind gradient issues could be a factor. Final intensity estimate is set at 50 knots [10-min].
The system is over ocean temperatures above 28C. Shear decreases on Friday with development becoming more favourable and thus the system is expected to develop into a severe tropical cyclone late Friday. There is some uncertainty however with considerable variance in model trends and some indications in the satellite imagery [TPW, WV and appearance of low level cloud in VIS imagery] that dry air may be impeding intensification.
Peak intensity is expected during Saturday 19th February. Dianne is then expected to gradually weaken over cooler SSTs and increasing shear when it gets to a latitude south of 25S.
The system has been slow moving over the past 24 hours. The passage of an upper trough is likely to cause the system to move generally southwards over the next 3-4 days, with the steering finely balanced. The models show a number of scenarios, it is most likely the system will remain off the coast, however there is a chance the system may take a more southeasterly track.
The next tropical cyclone advice from Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center on Tropical Cyclone Dianne will be issued at 10:00 AM UTC..
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #33
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE BINGIZA (05-20102011)
10:00 AM Reunion February 17 2011
=====================================
At 6:00 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Bingiza (990 hPa) located at 20.9S 44.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 9 knots.
Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/6 HRS
Gale Force Winds
===============
60 NM from the center in the southwestern quadrant extending up to 140 NM in the northwestern quadrant
Near Gale Force Winds
====================
100 NM from the center extending up to 200 NM in the northwestern quadrant
Forecast and Intensity
============================
12 HRS: 21.6S 44.0E - 35 knots (Depression sur Terre)
24 HRS: 22.5S 44.6E - 25 knots (Depression sur Terre)
48 HRS: 25.3S 45.2E - 25 knots (Depression sur Terre)
72 HRS: 27.3S 44.8E - 35 knots (Depression subtropicale)
Additional Information
======================
The system has rapidly intensified on a southward track over sea. An very ill defined eye is visible on visible and infrared imagery. Convection is concentrated very near of the center on the Mozambique channel edge and in the northwestern part of the system. BINGIZA is making landfall in the northern vicinity of Andranopasy and its re-intensification should be very short duration with a south southeastward track overland. In fact, numerical weather prediction models are in good agreement for this track within the next 48 hours with a north northwesterly steering flow generated by the near equatorial ridge. Associated rains should be heavy on the southwestern Madagascar. Remnants of BINGIZA should come back over water south of Madagascar near Ste-Marie Cape on Saturday, track temporarily southwestward on the subtropical ridge and dip down again south southeastward towards a mid-latitude trough with a subtropical and then an extratropical structure.
The next tropical cyclone advisory from Seychelles Meteorological Services will be issued at 12:30 PM UTC..
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11F
18:00 PM FST February 17 2011
=========================================
At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 11F (1002 hPa) located at 13.8S 169.9E is reported as slowly moving. Position poor based on multispectral infrared imagery with animation and peripheral observations. Sea surface temperature is around 30C.
Organization has slightly improved. Deep convection has decreased in the last 6 hours due to diurnal variation. Cyclonic circulation extends to 500 HPA. System lies under an upper ridge in a moderately sheared environment.
Global models have picked up the system and gradually moves it south southeast with some intensification.
The potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24-48 hours is MODERATE TO HIGH.
http://newmadrid2011.org/
Protest Against Shale Gas Fracking
Posted: Nov 03, 2010 3:51 PM CST
Protests held today in several states including Arkansas against shale gas fracking. It's a process used to get natural gas out of the shale. In Little Rock a small group at the state capitol gathered to express their outrage over what they say are the negative effects of fracking.
Armed with signs that read "I fought for my country in Vietnam I should not have to fight for clean drink water!" and "clean water is more valuable than gas" Arkansans fed up with a natural gas drilling process known as fracking joined forces on the steps of the State Capitol Wednesday to send a message and raise awareness about hydraulic-fracking.
Donna Adolph, President of Arkansans for Gas Drilling Accountability says, "It's a process of extracting natural gas from shale layers underground with high pressure water, sand, and very toxic chemicals."
A process Adolph, says is posing major health risks.
Adolph says, "All over the world we are having water contamination from this process, air pollution that is unbelievable. The toxins cause cancers, all kinds of neurological diseases and especially in small children."
Andy Cheshier, President of C.A.R.E., Citizens Against Resource Exploitation, says "The chemicals they are using we really don't know what they are because they say they are proprietary. They won't tell us. Thanks to the "Halibut Loophole" they don't have to tell us what these chemicals are. I can tell you they are very dangerous. There are up to 900 of them we know now.
The protestors fear salt water injection wells used to dispose of the water from the fracking process are causing earthquakes.
Adolph says, "These earthquakes can affect the casings that are suppose to protect our water and no one is checking them. "
It's out of their love for the Natural State the protestors say they are speaking out.
Adolph says, "It's just a call for people all over the world to take notice to this problem. This could be a greater natural disaster than the Gulf because it affects all of our water."
The protestors are pushing for the Frack Act to pass on a federal level requiring companies to disclose the chemicals they are using in the fracking process.
Meanwhile, the Arkansas Oil and Gas Commission which declined to talk on camera has proposed a rule that would require companies operating in the state to disclose the chemicals they used after a well is completed. That proposal will voted on at the next Oil and Gas Commission meeting December 7th.
looks like a little cold air push to take away the taste of spring
Garland Robinette has been talking about the problems with fracking for the last 2 years. It's been reported that in places people can actually light their water faucets and a flame will come out just like lighting a crawfish boiler.
I've seen that in his reporting.
Crazy indeed.
There's a disturbing number of these on youtube..
Yes, especially in China
http://www.engadget.com/motorola/atrix-4g-review/
Here is a vid from the same group.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W-BlXmN2x0k
Viewing: 801 - 839
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