The ARkStorm: California's coming great deluge
For thirty days and thirty nights the rain fell in unending torrents. By the end of the biblical deluge, rivers of water ten feet deep flowed through the streets of Sacramento, and an astounding 29.28 inches of rain had fallen on San Francisco. According to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, in the Sierras, the moist flow of air from Hawaii--often called an "atmospheric river" or the "Pineapple Express"--hit the steeply sloping mountainsides and rose upwards. The air expanded and cooled, causing truly prodigious rains, with the mining town of Sonora receiving 8.5 feet of rain over a 2-month period. The resulting floods inundated California's Central Valley with a lake 300 miles long and 20 miles wide.
The above event occurred in January 1862, and similar extreme rain events have deluged in California seven times in the past 2,000 years--about once every 300 years. Great storms like the flood of 1862 will happen again. If the planet continues to warm, as expected, the odds of such an event will at least double by 2100, due to the extra moisture increased evaporation from the oceans will add to the air. A group of scientists, emergency managers, and policy makers gathered in Sacramento, California earlier this month to discuss how the state might respond to a repeat of the 1862 rain event--the ARkStorm Scenario. The "AR" stands for "Atmospheric River", the "k" for 1,000 (like a 1-in-1000 year event), and of course "ARkStorm" is meant to summon visions of biblical-scale deluge, similar to the great flood of 1862. The team's final report envisions the most expensive disaster in world history, with direct damages and loss of economic activity amounting to $725 billion.
"Atmospheric Rivers" was a term coined in the 1990s to describe plumes of moisture that ride up out of the subtropics into the mid-latitudes along the axis of a cold front. Traditional water vapor satellite imagery does not show these plumes very well, and it was only when microwave satellite imagery from polar orbiting satellites became available in the late 1990s that the full importance of these Atmospheric Rivers came to be revealed. Atmospheric Rivers account for a significant portion of California's cold season rainfall and snowfall, and an entire session was devoted to them at the December 2010 American Geophysical Union (AGU) meeting in San Francisco, the world's largest Earth Science meeting.
Figure 1. The total amount of rainfall one could get if all the moisture in the air were condensed and fell out as rain is called the Total Precipitable Water (TPW). Here, TPW values from microwave satellite measurements are plotted, and show a plume of very moist air connecting the subtropics near Hawaii with Southern California. TPW vales in excess of 20 mm (about 0.8 inches, blue and warmer colors) are "Atmospheric Rivers", and are often associated with heavy rainfall events capable of causing flooding. This Atmospheric River occurred on December 21, 2010, and brought very heavy flooding rains to Southern California. Image credit: University of Wisconsin CIMSS.
California's Delta Region levees at high risk of failure
Much of Central California's water supply and agricultural areas are protected by an antiquated and poorly maintained set of levees along the Sacramento and San Joaquin Rivers that are in serious danger of failure during an extreme flood or major earthquake. The 1,600 miles of levees protect 500,000 people, 2 million acres of farmland, and structures worth $47 billion. Of particular concern is the delta at the confluence of California's Sacramento and San Joaquin rivers, about 80 miles inland from San Francisco Bay. The Delta Region receives runoff from more than 40% of California, and is the hub of California's water supply system, supplying water to 25 million people and 3 million acres of farmland. Key transportation and communication lines cross the region. The Delta Region is home to dozens of islands with highly productive farms that have subsided to elevations as much as 25 feet below sea level. Jeffrey Mount, director of the Center for Integrated Watershed Science and Management at the University of California at Davis, said in a recent interview with MSNBC, "The chances of a catastrophic flood occurring in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta sometime in the next 50 years are about two out of three." He called Sacramento, which is only protected to a 1-in-80 year flood by its levees, "the most at-risk large metropolitan area in the country, with less than half the protection that New Orleans had. It is at extreme risk due to levee failure and subsidence."" The most serious catastrophe for the levees in the Delta Region would be a major earthquake occurring during the dry season. Such a quake would allow salt water to intrude from San Francisco Bay, shutting off the fresh water supply for millions of Californians for months. Collapse of the levees during the wet season would be less devastating, as water pressure from the relatively high flow rates of the Sacramento and San Joaquin Rivers would keep salt water from intruding into the Delta Region. There are no good solutions to California's Delta Region water vulnerabilities, but a new $10 billion dollar canal that would route fresh water around the region is being proposed as a possible way Califoria could avoid losing its fresh water supply if a catatrophic failure of the Delta Region levees allowed salt water intrusion to occur.
A 2009 study by the California Department of Water Resources concluded:
The Delta Region as it exists today is unsustainable. Seismic risk, high water conditions, sea level rise and land subsidence threaten levee integrity. A seismic event is the single greatest risk to levee integrity in the Delta Region. If a major earthquake occurs, levees would fail and as many as 20 islands could be flooded simultaneously. This would result in economic costs and impacts of $15 billion or more. While earthquakes pose the greatest risk to Delta Region levees, winter storms and related high water conditions are the most common cause of levee failures in the region. Under business-as-usual practices, high water conditions could cause about 140 levee failures in the Delta over the next 100 years. Multiple island failures caused by high water would but could still be extensive and could cause approximately $8 billion or more in economic costs and impacts. Dry-weather levee failures [also called sunny-day events] unrelated to earthquakes, such as from slumping or seepage, will continue to occur in the Delta about once every seven years. Costs to repair a single island flooded as the result of a dry-weather levee failure are expected to exceed $50 million. The risk of flooding in the Delta Region will only increase with time if current management practices are not changed. By the year 2100, Delta levee failure risks due to high water conditions will increase by 800 percent. The risk of levee failure from a major earthquake is projected to increase by 93 percent during the same period.
The ARkStorm scenario and Great Flood of 1862 are discussed in much more detail by weather historian Christopher C. Burt in his latest post.
Figure 2. Levee failure on the Upper Jones Tract in the Delta Region on June 4, 2004. Image credit: California Department of Water Resources. A 1997 flood in the Delta Region did $510 million damage, damaged or destroyed 32,000 homes and businesses, and left 120,000 homeless.
Wilma pounding New Zealand; Australia eyes two potential new tropical cyclones
With February nearly upon us, the traditional peak of the Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone season is here. Activity has picked up markedly this week, with the formation of the year's first two Category 4 tropical cyclones, Tropical Cyclone Wilma and Tropical Cyclone Bianca. Wilma passed over American Samoa as a strong tropical storm, and hit Tonga as a Category 3 storm, causing substantial damage to the islands, but no deaths or injuries. Wilma is currently pounding New Zealand's North Island with heavy rains and strong winds, and is the strongest tropical cyclone to affect that country in fourteen years, according to weatherwatch.co.nz. Tropical Cyclone Bianca is expected to skirt the west coast of Australia over the next few days and rapidly weaken, but could bring heavy rains to the coast near Perth when it makes landfall on Sunday as a tropical storm. Of much greater concern for Australia are two potential tropical cyclones that could hit the flood-ravaged state of Queensland next week. Both the European Center and GFS models predict that the remains of Tropical Cyclone Anthony will regenerate into a tropical storm and hit Queensland early next week. A second and potentially more powerful storm is forecast by the European model to form next week in the islands to the east of Australia, and threaten Queensland at the end of the week. The GFS model has backed off on its prediction of such a storm forming. If the cyclone were to form, it would be a serious blow for Queensland, which is struggling to recover from record floods. As reported in the latest Bureau of Meteorology climate statement and flood summary, the past four months (September - December) have been the rainiest such period in Queensland's history, and the resulting flooding disaster has been Australia's most expensive natural disaster in history.
Figure 3. Tropical Cyclone Bianca, the globe's second major tropical cyclone of 2011, as seen at 06:30 GMT on January 28, 2011 by NASA's Aqua satellite. Biana is expected to rapidly weaken and hit the Australian coast near Perth as a tropical storm on Sunday. Image credit: NASA.
Have a great weekend, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 — Blog Index
How likely is it that Sydney would be impacted by TC activity? It seems kinda far south....
aussie- VERY good to have you posting again.
Tropical Cyclone Advice #20
TROPICAL CYCLONE ANTHONY (11U)
0:00 AM EST January 31 2011
=========================================
At 11:00 PM EST, Tropical Cyclone Anthony, Category One (994 hPa) located 21.1S 147.9E, or 40 km west southwest of Bowen and 80 km southeast of Ayr. has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 15 knots.
Gale Force Winds
===============
45 NM from the center in northern quadrant
45 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
60 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.5/D0.5/24HRS
Tropical Cyclone Anthony crossed the coast near Bowen just before 10pm EST Sunday and is now beginning to weaken as it moves inland.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS are occurring about coastal and island communities between Ayr and Proserpine. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS are expected to develop about adjacent inland areas over the next couple of hours.
HEAVY RAINFALL is occurring about the coast and adjacent inland between Ayr and St Lawrence. These conditions are likely to extend further inland as Tropical Cyclone Anthony moves to the southwest during Monday. Flood warnings are current for rivers and streams between Townsville and Mackay.
Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
================================
The Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal communities and adjacent inland areas from Ayr to Proserpine.
The Cyclone WARNING from Proserpine to Mackay has been cancelled.
Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 21.1S 146.4E - 30 knots (TROPICAL LOW)
24 HRS: 22.3S 145.3E - 25 knots (TROPICAL LOW)
48 HRS: 26.4S 142.8E - 25 knots (TROPICAL LOW)
72 HRS: 32.0S 141.5E - 25 knots (TROPICAL LOW)
Additional Information
=======================
Dvorak difficult with Tropical Cyclone Anthony now crossing the coast. Weakening trend adopted with the FT, though maintaining CI at 3.5 due to Dvorak constraints.
The next tropical cyclone advice on Tropical Cyclone Anthony will be issued at 15:00 PM UTC..
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #6
TROPICAL CYCLONE YASI (09F)
0:00 AM FST January 31 2011
=================================
At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Yasi, Category One (987 hPa) located at 13.9S 167.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 10 knots. Position POOR based on multispectral enhanced infrared radar imagery with animation and peripheral surface observations.
Gale Force Winds
================
150 NM from the center in eastern semi-circle
60 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
Overall organization has improved significantly over past 24 hours. Convection increased past 6 hours. Primary band trying to wrap around low level circulation center. System lies under an upper diffluent region in a weak sheared environment. CIMSS indicates decreasing shear along forecast path. Outflow good. Sea surface temperature is around 30C. System is expected to be steered westward by a easterly deep layer mean flow.
Dvorak assessment based on 0.60 wrap yielding DT=3.0, MET=3.0 and PT=3.0
Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS.
Global models are developing YASI further and maintaining a westward track.
Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 14.5S 165.0E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 14.6S 161.8E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 16.2S 155.1E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at around 20:30 PM UTC..
Published: Jan. 29, 2011 at 1:00 PM
JEDDAH, Saudi Arabia, Jan. 29 (UPI) -- At least 10 people died from flooding in the western Saudi Arabian city of Jeddah and three others were missing, officials said.
Jeddah received 4 inches of rain in three hours Wednesday and video showed water carrying people and vehicles downstream, CNN reported.
Ground crews rescued more than 1,400 people and helicopters carried nearly 500 people to safety. More than 1,500 families stayed in temporary shelters.
Power was restored to 65,000 customers, but on Thursday afternoon about 5,000 people remained without power, the Saudi Electricity Company said.
Nearly 100 people died in flooding in western Saudi Arabia in November 2009.
Tropical Cyclone Advice #21
TROPICAL LOW, FORMER ANTHONY (11U)
1:00 AM EST January 31 2011
=========================================
At 12:00 AM EST, Tropical Low, Former Anthony, Category One (999 hPa) located 20.2S 147.7E, or 60 km west southwest of Bowen and 75 km south southeast of Ayr has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The low is reported as moving west southwest at 14 knots.
ropical Cyclone Anthony crossed the coast near Bowen just before 10pm EST Sunday and has now weakened into a tropical low.
The low will continue to weaken as it moves further inland towards the southwest. A separate SEVERE WEATHER WARNING is current for HEAVY RAINFALL and DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
Flood warnings are also current for rivers and streams between Townsville and Mackay and the Pioneer River.
Saudia Arabia too? Maybe 2011 will be the year of the flood. :P
Already there so far.
I posted a comment on the Jeddah floods yesterday morning. This week's event was that city's second "100-year" flood in just 14 months.
G.Kopp & J.L.Lean Geophys. Res. Lett. 38, L01706; 2011
Source: Nature 01/27/2011
It's my understanding that it takes about 50 years for rising CO2 to overcome the inertia of the climate system. Industrialization did not take hold on a gigantic scale outside of the UK and Belgium until the latter half of the 1800s, so the effects of that would not start showing up until the early 1900s.
The warming right now is reflecting the post-WW2 boom in industrial activity across the planet.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
1134 AM CST SUN JAN 30 2011
...MAJOR WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...
.THE FIRST PHASE OF THE UPCOMING WINTER STORM WILL BEGIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING FOR NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA. SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM THE FIRST PHASE APPEARS TO
BE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST
INDIANA. THE FOCUS TURNS TOWARDS THE LARGER EVENT THAT PUSHES INTO
THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST OF THE
ROCKIES INTO EASTERN TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT AND RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN AS
IT SLIDES NORTH TUESDAY. THE PRECISE TRACK OF THE LOW CONTINUES TO
WOBBLE WITH EACH NEW MODEL RUN...HOWEVER RELATIVE CONSISTENCY OF A
TRACK FROM CENTRAL ARKANSAS NORTH TO CENTRAL INDIANA BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE MOST PROBABLE TRACK. THIS WOULD PLACE THE
AXIS OF THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TRACK OF THE
LOW PRESSURE...OR ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST
INDIANA.
AS THE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE NORTH AND STRENGTHEN...NORTHEAST
WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND BRING A FLOW OF
COLD AIR ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AIDING IN THE GENERATION OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS TUESDAY EVENING BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH WITH GUSTS
UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. NORTHEAST WINDS THEN CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH
POSSIBLE. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH THE FALLING SNOWFALL MAY CREATE
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AND WHITE OUT CONDITIONS. AS THE LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH INTO CENTRAL INDIANA WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TURN NORTHERLY AND BRING THE LAKE
ENHANCED SNOWFALL TO NORTHWEST INDIANA.
BY LATER WEDNESDAY THE SNOW FROM THE DEPARTING WINTER STORM WILL
BE WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE AREA BUT A BAND OF SIGNIFICANT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED IN NORTHWEST INDIANA WHERE SEVERAL
ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE THE LAKE EFFECT
SHIFTS FURTHER OFF TO THE EAST INTO SOUTHWESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN
AND NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA.
BETWEEN THE INITIAL LIGHTER SNOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING...
THE HEAVY SNOWFALL FROM THE MAJOR WINTER STORM DURING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND THE INCREASINGLY INTENSE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPING DURING WEDNESDAY...IN EXCESS OF A FOOT
AND A HALF OR MORE OF SNOW WILL NOT BE UNCOMMON OVER MUCH OF
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND FAR NORTHWEST INDIANA. SNOWFALL RATES UP TO
3 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE PROBABLE AT THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM
TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE STORM SYSTEM WILL BE AFFECTING A LARGE PORTION OF THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS. ANYONE
WITH TRAVEL PLANS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THOSE
TRAVELING THROUGH CHICAGO OHARE AND MIDWAY AIRPORTS...SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS WINTER STORM..
ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-019-
310145-
/O.CAN.KLOT.WS.A.0001.110201T1800Z-110203T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KLOT.BZ.A.0001.110201T1800Z-110203T0000Z/
WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE IL-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE-DUPAGE-COOK-
LA SALLE-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-KANKAKEE-LIVINGSTON-IROQUOIS-FORD-
LAKE IN-PORTER-NEWTON-JASPER-BENTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCKFORD...BELVIDERE...WOODSTOCK...
WAUKEGAN...OREGON...DIXON...DEKALB...AURORA...WHEATON...CHICAGO...
OTTAWA...OSWEGO...MORRIS...JOLIET...KANKAKEE...PONTIAC...
WATSEKA...PAXTON...GARY...VALPARAISO...MOROCCO...RENSSELAER...
FOWLER
1134 AM CST SUN JAN 30 2011 /1234 PM EST SUN JAN 30 2011/
...BLIZZARD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IS CANCELLED...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
* TIMING...HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
AREA MIDDAY TUESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE
SNOWFALL FROM THE STORM SYSTEM STARTS TO WIND DOWN DURING
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL
HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE ILLINOIS SIDE OF THE LAKE. INCREASINGLY
HEAVY AND MORE CONCENTRATED LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL SHIFT INTO
FAR NORTHWEST INDIANA DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING FURTHER OFF TO THE EAST
INTO SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA.
* ACCUMULATIONS...TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN EXCESS OF 8 INCHES IN
NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND IN EXCESS OF 18 INCHES OVER
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AS WELL AS NORTHWEST
INDIANA. LOCAL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 24 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
FAR NORTHWEST INDIANA...DEPENDING ON EXACTLY WHERE THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BAND SETS UP AND HOW PERSISTENT IT IS OVER ANY ONE
LOCATION.
* HAZARDS...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW AND FREQUENT WHITE OUT CONDITIONS.
* IMPACTS...NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TRAVEL CONDITIONS AS SNOW WILL BE
ACCUMULATING AT A RAPID RATE DURING THE PEAK OF THE SNOW STORM
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN NORTHWEST
INDIANA LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO
SNARL TRAVEL THERE.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FALLING AND/OR
BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITIES.
THIS CAN LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE TRAVEL VERY
DANGEROUS.
That is an amazing chart. It is incredible how much CO@ output exploded after WW2.
"The East Coast of the USA has been pummeled by blizzards of late, prompting derision of climate change in the public discourse, but those events simply reflect the variability of the season%u2026 and the effects of climate change. Warmth increases atmospheric moisture, and in the cold of winter increased moisture means more snow."
He should be careful about what he says. That sounds like one of Al Gore's lines. For starters, the U.S. semipermanent winter snow pack is fragile, and in a warming world would easily retreat northward, reducing national snow cover.
Secondly, IPCC projections of a strengthening polar vortex tend to force snowstorms northward into Canada, and flood the U.S. with warm air from the Pacific. In reality, it was the precise opposite of the IPCC-projected pattern that was the main cause of the snowstorms this winter, as the polar vortex was among the weakest ever recorded.
Thirdly, increased moisture means almost nothing unless you then get anomalous cooling to condense it into rain and snow. This is why cool periods over the last century have seen higher average global precipitation than the warm periods.
Fourthly, the frequency and intensity of major northeast U.S. snowstorms have not increased at all in the last 60 years, according to the NCDC's Northeast Snowfall Impact Scale (NESIS).
11P YASI
09P ANTHONY
Meanwhile it seems the SIndian is going to remain relatively quiet this year.... by comparson, anyway.
What are u making of the S Hemisphere season so far? Pretty much what should have been expected, or anamolous?
That would make some sense given just how strong this La Nina is. Northwest Australia could still see some action out of the Indian though.
Well I talked about how Australia could be threatened a bit this season in a video I did in November. However, if we want to look at tropical activity overall, Southern hemisphere ACE is currently at only 64% of normal for the season to date. It's not an above-average season so far, but certainly one that can threaten Australia more than usual given the current pattern.
My studies are going alright so far. Thanks for asking. I just can't wait until I can go to a meteorology school.
This was the seen in Jeddah,Saudi Arabia at the time of (January, 26 - 2011)
Hey, Levi. As you no doubt noticed, that NESIS scale measures a storm's impact on populations; it can't be used for direct meteorological comparison. An analogy: no one will argue that an EF5 tornado isn't far more powerful than an EF2, but an EF5 spinning across open farmland will have far less impact than an EF2 cutting through the middle of a large city. Likewise with hurricanes; a Cat 2 storm striking New Orleans can be far more devastating than a Cat 5 making landfall on some lightly-inhabited coastline. The fact of the matter is, as Dr. Masters noted in his last blog entry, five of New York City's top-ten snowfalls of the past 142 years have occurred in the past decade, and four of Philadelphia's all-time top ten snowfalls have occurred in a little over a year. Those numbers are probably more than just coincidence.
Any would-be scientist who wants to be taken seriously should really stop reading WUWT--or at least stop using it as a primary teaching tool... ;-)
With la nina looking at least potentially as if it will moderate by June, I'm wondering how early the NW Pacific area is likely to become active this year....
... and Joe Bastardi's blog! ;)
Sound advice would be for scientists to debate the data at hand, and not where it came from if it is legitimate. I gave the link to the original source, so please stop whining.
Here's where your argument doesn't stand. Yes NESIS is based on population too. Any guesses as to what this would do to the trend over time? It would tend to show an increase in high-impact storms (even if the real trend is flat). The fact that there is no perceptible increase means that either there is no increase in major nor'easters, or there is somewhat of a decrease.
Yeah~ I saw extreme catastrophic fire weather was forecast for the west side of Australia today. What extremes. Hope they are having a decent day there.
xpectation is for at least 4 tropical cyclones to attain Category 3 or hurricane intensity.
Could Yasi become another Ului?
That's the look of powerful cyclone in the near future.
Hmm...We Can Expect Brilliant Northern Lights in Early February - AccuWeather
Spaceweather.com
You think I was whining, Levi? Merely because I pointed out that yet another person has fallen into the trap of getting their climatic data from the same trough of denialist slop as so many others? Yes, you gave a link to the original source--but the fact that so many people who should know better spend any time at all mucking about WUWT, Bastardi's blog, and other denialist sites looking for cherry-picked info tells me the honest pursuit of science isn't their primary goal.
Anyway, I believe your logic fails. The NESIS data can be interpreted several ways. There's your way, of course: there has been no increase in high-impact storms. Here's another: while severe storms have become more frequent (as evidenced by the NYC and Philly factoids), they're not as widespread as they used to be, so any one event is generally affecting fewer people overall. Here's another: NESIS, as the name implies, is only for the Northeast U.S.--that is, just a small fraction of the earth--and as such can't be used to draw any particular conclusions about global climate. And I'm sure there are other ways of interpreting/spinning the--some of which I'm sure we'll hear about. ;-) Again, a few basic facts: five of New York City's top-ten snowfalls of the past 142 years have occurred in the past decade, and four of Philadelphia's all-time top ten snowfalls have occurred in a little over a year. To me, that's pretty remarkable...
Seems the Sun is continuing to not play as expected. The revisions keep coming. We could have new numbers next week again!
http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml
Viewing: 551 - 601
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 — Blog Index