Dangerous winter storm slams South, heads to New England; Indiana sets snow record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:14 PM GMT en Enero 10, 2011

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A powerful winter storm has brought heavy snow and dangerous amounts of freezing rain to much of the South, in a swath stretching from northeastern Texas to southern North Carolina. The storm began Sunday in Texas, then tracked almost due east, bringing snow amounts of 8 - 11 inches to southern Arkansas, northern Mississippi, northern Alabama, and southern Tennessee. As of 9am CST, the heaviest snow amounts as reported in the NOAA Storm Summary were 11 inches at Lawrenceburg, TN and 10 inches at Baldwyn, MS. The worst freezing rain was reported in central Georgia at Fort Valley, where 3/4" of ice had accumulated. Texarkana, Arkansas, had 1/2" of ice. Freezing rain amounts of 1/4 inch were also reported over much of northern Louisiana, central Alabama, and central Mississippi. A nasty mix of up to four inches of snow, sleet, and freezing rain hit the Atlanta, Georgia area, causing the cancellation of thousands of flights at the world's busiest airport. The storm will bring an additional 2 - 6 inches of snow to eastern Tennessee, central South Carolina, and central North Carolina today, with significant freezing rain possible in northern Georgia and portions of North and South Carolina. Below-freezing temperatures are expected to remain over the region through Wednesday morning, resulting in a long period of dangerous travel conditions.

Major Nor'easter expected for New York City and Boston
Today's snow storm is expected to push off the coast of North Carolina tonight, then "bomb" into a classic Nor'easter off the coast of New England on Tuesday and Wednesday. Up to a foot of snow is possible for New York City, Boston, and coastal Connecticut and Rhode Island beginning on Tuesday night. The Nor'easter will not be as intense as the December 26 blizzard, however. The winds from the new storm are expected to remain less than 35 mph, resulting in only minor coastal flooding and an absence of blizzard conditions (winds in excess of 35 mph and visibility less than 1/4 mile.)

South Bend nearly sets all-time Indiana snowfall record
An epic lake effect snow storm hit South Bend, Indiana Friday and Saturday, burying the city under a remarkable 36.6" of snow. It was the heaviest two-day snow storm in South Bend's history, breaking a record that had stood since 1909 (a 29" snow storm on January 30 - 31.) The 32.6" that fell in a 24-hour period between 4pm EST 1/7 and 4pm EST 1/8 came just 0.4" short of matching Indiana's heaviest 24-hour snow storm on record. Indiana's heaviest 24-hour snow event was the 33.0" that fell at Salem in December 2004, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt.


Figure 1. Snow from Saturday's record lake effect snow storm in South Bend, Indiana piles up. Photo by slowhiker.

While the current snow event is over, new snows are expected in South Bend beginning Wednesday, when a renewed strong northwesterly flow of air off of Lake Michigan will develop in the wake of the strong winter storm currently pounding the Southern U.S. Another 8+ inches of snow may fall in the South Bend area in the new storm.


Figure 2. True color satellite image of the South Bend, Indiana lake effect snow storm of Saturday, January 8, 2010 at 1:45pm EST. A well-defined band of heavy snow developed over Lake Michigan and anchored itself over South Bend, giving the city its heaviest snow storm on record. Image credit: NASA.

Jeff Masters

Bridge (SKERT)
in Asheville, NC
Bridge
Blairsville, Ga Snowfall (HurricaneIan)
Overnight and are expecting 3" to 6" more before the storm pulls out on Tuesday
Blairsville, Ga Snowfall
Snow Birds (Strumminmysixstring)
Snow Birds

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340. goodsign
12:56 AM GMT en Enero 06, 2012
Oh, this was last year. Why the alert?
Member Since: Mayo 28, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 35
339. goodsign
9:30 PM GMT en Enero 05, 2012
I don't even know where Dr. M. is getting this. I live in North Alabama and we never saw any snow, anywhere around here. Nowhere in this state.
Member Since: Mayo 28, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 35
338. ChillinInTheKeys
2:55 PM GMT en Enero 11, 2011
Quoting aquak9:
how long are ya'll staying there, chillin?


NEW BLOG!!!
Somewhere around Monday. Have our younger son with us detoxing from Oxys, so we're having our ups and downs. Still doesn't stop nature from being beautiful!!!
Member Since: Agosto 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 695
337. IKE
2:54 PM GMT en Enero 11, 2011
NEW BLOG!
Member Since: Junio 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
336. aquak9
2:49 PM GMT en Enero 11, 2011
how long are ya'll staying there, chillin?
Member Since: Agosto 13, 2005 Posts: 175 Comments: 26493
335. atmoaggie
2:47 PM GMT en Enero 11, 2011
Quoting TampaFLUSA:
Wow from friction! And on the cold ice too.
Yes, from friction...but from under the hood...
Member Since: Agosto 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
334. ChillinInTheKeys
2:31 PM GMT en Enero 11, 2011
Quoting aquak9:


thanks for checking in- sounds scarey but your attitude sounds good


We're Florida Keys folks but have property up here also. We drove up Saturday just for the event. We don't get to play in the snow to often. The four wheelers are a blast in it.
Member Since: Agosto 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 695
333. IKE
2:27 PM GMT en Enero 11, 2011
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
830 AM EST TUE JAN 11 2011

.DISCUSSION...LUCKILY...IT APPEARS WE AVOIDED THE THREAT FOR
POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS FREEZING DRIZZLE LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS
MORNING...AS TEMPERATURES REMAINED ABOVE FREEING THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...EVEN THOUGH THE SFC LOW HAS RE-DEVELOPED WELL TO OUR
NE...THE ENTIRE CWA REMAINS ENGULFED IN LOW CLOUDINESS WITH PATCHY
DRIZZLE CONTINUING IN SOME AREAS. BELIEVE THE CURRENT FCST IS WELL
ON TRACK WITH THE LOW CLOUDS...AS IT MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FOR EXTENSIVE CLEARING TO OCCUR. PART OF THE REASON THAT
THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL TAKE SUCH A LONG TIME TO BURN OFF IS THE
MASSIVE 18 DEGREE INVERSION IN THIS MORNING`S TALLAHASSEE SOUNDING.
WHILE IT IS 37 DEGREES F AND SATURATED AT THE SURFACE...IT IS 55
DEGREES AT 4100 FT (OR 880 MB). THIS CANOPY SHOULD HOLD DOWN HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO THE MIDDLE 40S WELL TO THE NORTH...AND TO THE LOWER
50S FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...AND IF IT DOES NOT BREAK OUT AT ALL...
HIGHS COULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER. OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...THE
NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED TO AROUND 10 KNOTS NEARSHORE AND 10 TO
15 KNOTS OFFSHORE WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS.

Member Since: Junio 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
332. RitaEvac
2:25 PM GMT en Enero 11, 2011

Member Since: Julio 14, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 9676
331. aquak9
2:20 PM GMT en Enero 11, 2011
Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:
We're holding at 8" here south of Blue Ridge, Georgia. Light frozen drizzle falling. Plenty to eat and an endless supply of wood for the stove. So far the power has stayed on. I think this stuff may hang for a while as it will remain below freezing 'till Friday. The birds and deer are enjoying our seed and corn as well.


thanks for checking in- sounds scarey but your attitude sounds good
Member Since: Agosto 13, 2005 Posts: 175 Comments: 26493
330. jwh250
2:16 PM GMT en Enero 11, 2011
Fort Collins, CO just obliterated its record low by 12 degrees at -14, beating the previous record of -2 for the date.
Member Since: Diciembre 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 94
329. ChillinInTheKeys
2:08 PM GMT en Enero 11, 2011
We're holding at 8" here south of Blue Ridge, Georgia. Light frozen drizzle falling. Plenty to eat and an endless supply of wood for the stove. So far the power has stayed on. I think this stuff may hang for a while as it will remain below freezing 'till Friday. The birds and deer are enjoying our seed and corn as well.
Member Since: Agosto 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 695
328. aquak9
2:08 PM GMT en Enero 11, 2011
poor atlanta- news says the whole bottom half of the Perimeter - I guess that's the circle around the city- has been shut down, battling an INCH of ICE on the road

atlanta DOT uses the word "logjammed"


and more below freezing temps are expected
Member Since: Agosto 13, 2005 Posts: 175 Comments: 26493
327. RTLSNK
2:07 PM GMT en Enero 11, 2011
Special Weather Statement
Statement as of 8:53 AM EST on January 11, 2011


... Dangerous driving conditions continue across north and parts of
central Georgia...

A winter storm that tracked through Georgia Sunday night and Monday
dumped snow... sleet... and freezing rain across the state. With the
cold temperatures and low level moisture in place... freezing drizzle
persisted through the night. Although the freezing rain is
diminishing and no additional ice accumulation is expected...
driving conditions will remain treacherous across north and much
of central Georgia.

North Georgia and parts of central Georgia still have snow... sleet
and ice on the ground. Temperatures will climb to just above
freezing this afternoon... but will drop back into the 20s tonight.
This will allow for any moisture on the sidewalks and roadways to
freeze.

Although the best option is not to drive in these hazardous
conditions... use extreme caution if you must travel. Slow down and
leave extra time to reach your destination.

Member Since: Septiembre 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 21931
326. RitaEvac
2:06 PM GMT en Enero 11, 2011
I no longer see the buttons to put in a image or link on here...
Member Since: Julio 14, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 9676
325. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2:05 PM GMT en Enero 11, 2011
At 8:00 PM WST, Tropical Low (994 hPa) located at 14.9S 107.5E, or 1050 kilometers northwest of Exmouth has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving west at 2 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS

Gale Force Winds
=================
80 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 15.1S 107.3E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 15.5S 108.2E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 16.6S 112.2E - 70 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS: 18.2S 114.8E - 85 knots (CAT 3)

Additional Information
======================

The LLCC was clearly visible on VIS imagery. Recent microwave imagery showed the exposed LLCC and assisted in locating the centre. The LLCC has improved significantly and the CDO has shown some consolidation despite ongoing shear of close to 20 knots as indicated on the CIMSS analysis. The shear is forecast to drop overnight due to a retrogressing upper trough, though models differ on the relative location of the LLCC to the upper trough, leading to some uncertainty as to how much the shear will drop. However, in general, conditions should be much more favourable for development over the next 48 hours.

The Dvorak analysis is based on a shear pattern with less than 0.75 degrees separation between the LLCC and the CDO giving a DT of 2.5. The improvement in the LLCC and consolidation of the CDO warrant a 24 hour trend of D and this gives a MET of 2.0. The PAT is 2.5 and so the FT and CI are set to 2.5. The ASCAT pass at 0235Z indicates a circulation of around 30 knots with gales in the southwest quadrant, consistent with the Dvorak analysis.

All models indicate the system will recurve towards the southeast within the next 6 to 24 hours and will again recurve, this time to head westwards around 12Z on 14 Jan [+/- 12 hours]. There is significant divergence between the models on how fast the system will move while on the east southeastwards track with some models bringing the system onto the Pilbara coast while others imply no coastal impact, with the system recurving well off the coast.

STIPS and model guidance generally do not show strong intensification during the next 48 hours but an assessment of the synoptic conditions indicates favourable conditions for development, hence the system is forecast to intensify at roughly the climatological rate.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 19:00 PM UTC..
Member Since: Mayo 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46527
324. RitaEvac
2:03 PM GMT en Enero 11, 2011
http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/640x480/2xus_st_anim.gif
Member Since: Julio 14, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 9676
323. Skyepony (Mod)
1:44 PM GMT en Enero 11, 2011
Thanks MichaelSTL. I used a bad choice of words & went to sleep.

I'd hate to get stuck under 93P. One worth looking for a TRMM pass of. This image will update to the most recent. At the moment it more black & white then red all over.
Member Since: Agosto 10, 2005 Posts: 208 Comments: 39074
322. IKE
1:41 PM GMT en Enero 11, 2011
Quoting aquak9:
What happened to the warm winter?

yeah right!!! I had tomatoes cukes squash all bearing quite nicely....well till thanksgiving now they are all long DEAD


grrrr at least I don't have snow and ice covering everything


I can live and more importantly, work, without the snow and ice.

My yard is covered in leaves. Weather hasn't been nice enough to work in it this winter...so far.

My rain gauge is doing it's duties:)
Member Since: Junio 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
321. aquak9
1:35 PM GMT en Enero 11, 2011
What happened to the warm winter?

yeah right!!! I had tomatoes cukes squash all bearing quite nicely....well till thanksgiving now they are all long DEAD


grrrr at least I don't have snow and ice covering everything
Member Since: Agosto 13, 2005 Posts: 175 Comments: 26493
320. IKE
1:09 PM GMT en Enero 11, 2011
Cloudy here. Drizzled overnight.

39.6 right now. Looks like a warm-up over the weekend and into early next week before more cold, although the cold for next week is questionable...right now.

What happened to the warm winter?
Member Since: Junio 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
319. aquak9
1:04 PM GMT en Enero 11, 2011
horrid miserable here in jax, fl- heavy heavy fog, near maybe the mid forties?
Member Since: Agosto 13, 2005 Posts: 175 Comments: 26493
318. GeoffreyWPB
1:03 PM GMT en Enero 11, 2011
It's been a while since I have seen it so foggy this late in the morning. Happy 1-11-11 everyone!
Member Since: Septiembre 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11512
317. Neapolitan
12:47 PM GMT en Enero 11, 2011
69 and foggy here in Naples now, heading toward a high in the upper 70s--then a drop into the 40s tonight, and the low 30s tomorrow night. But the cold will be short-lived; we're supposed to be back into the mid 70s by the weekend. That's infinitely better than last year's 13 straight days (or so) in early/mid-January with sub-50 lows.

Lots of daily rainfall (123) and snowfall (228) records were set or tied in the CONUS yesterday. Among the rainfall records: 4" at both Newberry, SC, and Sparta, TN. Snowfall-wise: 10.5" at Red Cloud, NE, and 8" at Lynchburg, TN

There were no record daily highs yesterday, and just a smattering (8) of record daily lows. The coldest: -30 at Maybell, CO (high in the Rockies; Maybell is the location of the coldest temp ever recorded in the state: -61 in February, 1985).
Member Since: Noviembre 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13729
316. IKE
12:07 PM GMT en Enero 11, 2011
Quoting aquak9:
hi ike

glad- SO GLAD- for where I live now, and not further north or further west. I hope you're staying warm, altho I kinda doubt it.


Good morning. Agree...I'll take this weather anyday compared to up north.

39.4 at my location.

Cold here this week...

Today: Partly sunny, with a high near 49. North northwest wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 26. Wind chill values as low as 18. North northwest wind around 10 mph.

Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 45. Wind chill values as low as 17 early. North northwest wind between 10 and 15 mph.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 23. Wind chill values as low as 16. North northwest wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 44. North northwest wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 21.

Member Since: Junio 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
315. DDR
12:02 PM GMT en Enero 11, 2011
Quoting MichaelSTL:
More moisture in the atmosphere doesn't necessarily mean more rain, in fact, it can also mean less (along with more evaporation and less soil moisture, and more erratic rainfall, like decades-long droughts followed by 1,000 year floods):

New study puts the ‘hell’ in Hell and High Water
Must-read NCAR analysis warns we risk multiple, devastating global droughts even on moderate emissions path

I think your right,local mets say we in the caribbean will experience less rainfall over the coming decades.
Member Since: Abril 27, 2007 Posts: 14 Comments: 1723
314. aquak9
11:43 AM GMT en Enero 11, 2011
hi ike

glad- SO GLAD- for where I live now, and not further north or further west. I hope you're staying warm, altho I kinda doubt it.
Member Since: Agosto 13, 2005 Posts: 175 Comments: 26493
313. IKE
11:38 AM GMT en Enero 11, 2011
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
423 AM CST TUE JAN 11 2011

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-111800-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM...
MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN...
PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...GREENVILLE...
LUVERNE...BRANTLEY...ATMORE...BREWTON...EAST BREWTON...
ANDALUSIA...OPP...MOBILE...PRICHARD...SARALAND...BAY MINETTE...
TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE...FOLEY...
SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...PENSACOLA...
FERRY PASS...BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY...
MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE...MILTON...GULF BREEZE...CRESTVIEW...
WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH...NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE...
EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO...WAYNESBORO...RICHTON...BEAUMONT...
NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE...MCLAIN...WIGGINS...LUCEDALE
423 AM CST TUE JAN 11 2011

...COLDER AIR FLOWING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY AND
BRING A PERIOD OF SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER TEMPERATURES AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR A HARD FREEZE. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO
THE LOWER TWENTIES ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND INLAND
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA WITH MID TWENTIES CLOSER TO THE COAST AND OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. AREAS NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL HAVE
LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER TWENTIES. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE LOCAL HARD FREEZE CRITERIA OF TWENTY
DEGREES BUT RESIDENTS WILL NEED TO TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO
PROTECT SENSITIVE VEGETATION AND OTHER ITEMS VULNERABLE TO SUB
FREEZING TEMPERATURES. SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND A HARD FREEZE WATCH FOR
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL ALABAMA MAY BE REQUIRED.

$$

Member Since: Junio 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
312. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
9:24 AM GMT en Enero 11, 2011
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #6
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03F
18:00 PM FST January 11, 2011
====================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (996 hPa) located at 19.3S 169.6E is reported as slowly moving. Position GOOD based on multispectral infrared imagery with animation and peripheral surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 29C.

Gale Force Winds
=================
clockwise winds 30-35 knots within 90 to 240 NM away from the center in sectors from north through east to southeast

Convection remains persistent in the last 6 hours with one band to the north, the other band to the south. Slight warming of tops past 3 hours. Overall organization increased past 24 hours. TD 03F lies along a surface trough and under a 250 HPA diffluent region. CIMSS indicates a moderately sheared environment. System currently steered by weak northerly.

Dvorak analysis based on 0.35 LOG10 Spiral yielding DT=2.0, MET=2.5, PT=2.0 and FT based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS.

Most global models has picked up the system and moves it south southwest at 5 knots with some intensification.

The potential for this tropical depression to form into a tropical cyclone within the next 24-48 hours is HIGH.

The next tropical cyclone advisory issued by Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at around 14:00 PM UTC..
Member Since: Mayo 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46527
311. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
9:23 AM GMT en Enero 11, 2011
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL LOW 09U
15:00 PM WST January 11 2011
========================================

At 2:00 PM WST, Tropical Low (994 hPa) located at 14.9S 107.7E, or 1035 kilometres northwest of Exmouth has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving west at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS

Gale Force Winds
=================
80 NM from the center

The low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 12 to 24 hours.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 15.1S 107.6E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 15.5S 108.3E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 16.6S 111.8E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
72 HRS: 18.0S 115.2E - 85 knots (CAT 3)

Additional Information
======================
The LLCC is clearly visible in VIS imagery, and the fix is based on this. The LLCC has improved significantly and the CDO has shown some consolidation despite ongoing shear of close to 30 knots indicated on the CIMSS analysis. The shear is forecast to drop overnight due to a retrogressing upper trough, though models differ on the relative location of the LLCC to the upper trough, leading to some uncertainty as to how much the shear will drop. However in general conditions should be much more favourable for development over the next 48 hours.

The Dvorak analysis is based on a shear pattern with less than 0.5 degrees separation between the LLCC and the CDO. The improvement evident in the LLCC allows an assignment of 2.5. Curved band patterns give a wrap of 0.35 yielding a DT of 2. The improvement in the LLCC and consolidation of the CDO warrant a 24 hour trend of D and this gives a MET of 2.0. The PAT is 2.5 and as there is no FT constraint on assigning 2.5 [6 hour old FT was 2.0, 24 hour old FT 1.0] this is set as the FT and CI. The ASCAT pass at 0235Z indicates a circulation of around 30 knots with gales in the southwest quadrant, consistent with the Dvorak analysis.

Models all indicate the system will recurve to head east towards the coast within the next 12 hours and will again recurve, this time to head westwards around 12Z on 14 Jan [ /- 12 hours]. There is significant divergence between the models on how fast the system will move while on the east southeastwards track with some models bringing the system onto the coast while others imply no coastal impact, with the system recurving well off the coast.

STIPS and model guidance generally do not show strong intensification during the next 48 hours but an assessment of the synoptic conditions indicates favourable conditions hence the system is forecast to intensify at roughly the climatological rate.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 13:00 PM UTC..
Member Since: Mayo 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46527
310. xcool
6:29 AM GMT en Enero 11, 2011
National Hurricane Center Official Name Change

The National Hurricane Center has officially changed its name from Tropical Prediction Center to National Hurricane Center. Although the name change took effect during 2010, NHC products will not reflect the new name until January 10, 2011 at 1200 UTC (7AM EST).
Member Since: Septiembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
309. DontAnnoyMe
6:08 AM GMT en Enero 11, 2011
Quoting Skyepony:
Looks like 9 were killed driving in the snow in Atlanta. Ridiculous wrecks across SC...people should probably be not trying to drive in what they aren't used to.


Nobody should be ever be trying to drive on ice, which central SC got plenty of.

SOUTH CAROLINA

..AIKEN COUNTY

AIKEN 1.00 344 PM 1/10 POWER OUTAGES

..BAMBERG COUNTY

BAMBERG 0.25 411 PM 1/10 POWER OUTAGES

..BARNWELL COUNTY

BARNWELL 0.25 418 PM 1/10 SLUSHY ROADS

..CALHOUN COUNTY

ST. MATTHEWS 0.12 535 PM 1/10 PATCHY ICE ON ROADS

..CLARENDON COUNTY

MANNING 0.50 542 PM 1/10 SOME POWER OUTAGES

..EDGEFIELD COUNTY

TRENTON 0.50 611 PM 1/10 ICY ROADS

..LEE COUNTY

BISHOPVILLE 0.25 739 PM 1/10
4 NE BISHOPVILLE 0.25 739 PM 1/10 ICY ROADS

..LEXINGTON COUNTY

CAYCE 0.25 515 PM 1/10

..MCCORMICK COUNTY

MCCORMICK 0.25 620 PM 1/10 ICY ROADS

..NEWBERRY COUNTY

NEWBERRY 0.25 728 PM 1/10

..ORANGEBURG COUNTY

10 NW ORANGEBURG 0.50 640 PM 1/10 ICY ROADS

..RICHLAND COUNTY

WHITE ROCK 0.50 653 PM 1/10 WET ROADS

..SALUDA COUNTY

SALUDA 0.25 701 PM 1/10

..SUMTER COUNTY

SUMTER 0.25 438 PM 1/10 ROADS WET

..SPARTANBURG COUNTY

4 S GREER 0.10 700 PM 1/10 GSP NWS OFFICE

..UNION COUNTY

JONESVILLE 0.20 550 PM 1/10 0.2 INCH SLEET AND ICE
Member Since: Septiembre 21, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3690
308. MichaelSTL
5:50 AM GMT en Enero 11, 2011
More moisture in the atmosphere doesn't necessarily mean more rain, in fact, it can also mean less (along with more evaporation and less soil moisture, and more erratic rainfall, like decades-long droughts followed by 1,000 year floods):

New study puts the ‘hell’ in Hell and High Water
Must-read NCAR analysis warns we risk multiple, devastating global droughts even on moderate emissions path
Member Since: Febrero 22, 2006 Posts: 94 Comments: 32744
307. Levi32
5:42 AM GMT en Enero 11, 2011
Quoting Skyepony:
Levi~ I agree, this La Nina is helping drown them. This new trend to a little more wet atmosphere is beginning to become apparent world wide.


Although the rainfall trend has been pretty flat for the last 60 years.

Member Since: Noviembre 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26698
306. Levi32
5:35 AM GMT en Enero 11, 2011
The La Nina signal in the OLR anomalies has only strengthened since last November.

Member Since: Noviembre 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26698
305. Skyepony (Mod)
5:35 AM GMT en Enero 11, 2011
Levi~ I agree, this La Nina is helping drown them. This new trend to a little more wet atmosphere is beginning to become apparent world wide.
Member Since: Agosto 10, 2005 Posts: 208 Comments: 39074
304. Skyepony (Mod)
5:32 AM GMT en Enero 11, 2011
Looks like 9 were killed driving in the snow in Atlanta. Ridiculous wrecks across SC...people should probably be not trying to drive in what they aren't used to.


Gov. Mark Sanford declared a state of emergency Monday afternoon, due to ongoing severe winter weather that is affecting most of South Carolina. The official declaration of a statewide state of emergency allows state agencies to respond more quickly, reassign personnel and deploy vehicles and equipment. State officials are asking people to stay off the roadways except in cases of extreme emergency or necessity. There have been reports of accidents and disabled motorists throughout the state. As of Monday afternoon, 357 law enforcers from the South Carolina High Patrol, the State Law Enforcement Division and the Department of Natural Resources were responding to incidents. Wrecker teams made up of 120 National Guard soldiers have been placed on active duty to assist local responders and state agencies. The crews will assist with vehicle accidents and roadway clearing. The State Emergency Operations Center is staffed with members of the State Emergency Response Team, according the governor’s office.
Member Since: Agosto 10, 2005 Posts: 208 Comments: 39074
303. Levi32
5:32 AM GMT en Enero 11, 2011
A deep monsoon trough continues to be draped across all of northern Australia with tropical lows forming everywhere along it, and this is to blame for the rainfall. The strength of this La Nina is showing itself in that part of the world.

Member Since: Noviembre 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26698
302. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
5:30 AM GMT en Enero 11, 2011
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL LOW
9:00 AM WST January 11 2011
========================================

At 8:00 AM WST, Tropical Low (996 hPa) located at 14.9S 108.3E, or 995 kilometers northwest of Exmouth has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The low is reported as moving west at 10 knots.

The low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 12 to 24 hours.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 14.8S 107.4E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS: 15.3S 107.8E - 40 knots (CAT 1)

The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 7:00 AM UTC..
Member Since: Mayo 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46527
301. Skyepony (Mod)
5:29 AM GMT en Enero 11, 2011
Torrential rain continues in the lower parts of Holland and Belgium. As water rises and melting water comes down from higher areas, cities such as Bouillon flood, leaving residents stranded in wet houses. Bouillon, Ardennen, Belgium. South-western Holland and most parts of Belgium have been the worst hit by the torrential rain and floods, combined with melting water coming down from higher areas. After around 10cm of rain fell over the weekend (some areas recorded almost 15cm of rain in 12 hours), cities like Bouillon flood. A state of emergency has been declared in several regions of Belgium and the army has been drafted in to deal with breaches in dikes. Volunteers have also been mobilised to strengthen flood defences and some areas have reported that drinking water has been contaminated. Flooded streets have been closed in several towns, and mudslides and power cuts have been reported. A hospital has been abandoned and dozens of villages are cut off. Bouillon is one of these cut off villages were people now rely on local fire departments to drain their houses of flood water and furthermore just stand aside while the water keeps rising.
Member Since: Agosto 10, 2005 Posts: 208 Comments: 39074
300. Skyepony (Mod)
5:25 AM GMT en Enero 11, 2011
About 50 people fled a community in the White Bay area of western Newfoundland Monday after high winds pushed ocean waves into the town. "It looked scary," said Doug Osmond, a resident of The Beaches, on the phone from a friend's house near Hampden, White Bay. "We got up this morning, and there was high winds, and the water was coming in over the road and washing away the sides of the road. "[Provincial officials] declared a state of emergency. We had to get out because they figured the road is going to wash away." No one has been injured, but Osmond, 64, said many people fear the worst damage may come Monday night. "Tonight, they are expecting winds of more than 120 kilometres," he said. "So, we figured it might be better to get out during the day than have to get out at night." The Beaches has suffered storm damage before. "We've had to move out a few times before with the high seas," said Osmond. "There is 1.8 kilometres of road there from Georges Cove down to The Beaches, and when there are high tides and heavy seas, you can't get back and forth there. We figure if anyone gets sick, you wouldn't be able to get out of it, and most people there are seniors now." In January 2004, after a similar storm forced residents out of the community, there were calls for the government to compensate people and move them out of the community to resettle elsewhere. The community wasn't resettled, but Osmond said about half of the residents would like to see the community move. "Years ago, they spoke about [resettlement]. They were going to fix the road or resettle the community, but they never did," said Osmond. Osmond said he would like to see the road repaired so it can withstand future ocean surges. "I've been living there 64 years, and my father, he lived there all his life," Osmond said. "He's 96, and his father and mother lived there all their lives." Osmond hopes to return home Tuesday after the winds die down.
Member Since: Agosto 10, 2005 Posts: 208 Comments: 39074
299. Skyepony (Mod)
5:20 AM GMT en Enero 11, 2011
BRISBANE, Australia -- Rescuers raced Tuesday to reach people trapped on roofs after a flash flood hurled a tsunami-like wall of water through Australia's waterlogged east, tossing cars like toys, killing at least eight people and leaving 72 missing.

Read more: http://www.modbee.com/2011/01/10/1505850/aust-flood-crisis-worsens-8-killed.html#ixzz1AhR4dKZy
Member Since: Agosto 10, 2005 Posts: 208 Comments: 39074
298. JRRP
5:18 AM GMT en Enero 11, 2011
Member Since: Agosto 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6209
297. EnergyMoron
5:15 AM GMT en Enero 11, 2011
On guys who cry.

We discussed, well, bully language at the family meal tonight. Not a good thing.

I'm beginning to like this idea of guys who cry rather than shoot from the hip.

Perhaps they can be convinced even of the need for energy efficiency (50% reduction in energy use > 50% reduction in CO2).

Good night.
Member Since: Diciembre 8, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3
296. JRRP
5:10 AM GMT en Enero 11, 2011
Member Since: Agosto 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6209
295. BtnTx
4:56 AM GMT en Enero 11, 2011
Quoting melwerle:
Well - i blew off my trip to NYC today. I couldn't feel at ease not knowing if I would make it out of town by tomorrow night. I think I made the right decision but that's behind me I guess.

Has anyone heard from Aussie lately?
I think Aussie decided to not be here anymore for some reason and I don't know why
Member Since: Octubre 12, 2001 Posts: 20 Comments: 892
294. TampaFLUSA
4:56 AM GMT en Enero 11, 2011
Quoting Skyepony:
Mel~ Haven't seen Aussie in some time.

Classic Simpsons moment. SOmeone in Atlanta today kept spinning on the ice til his car caught fire.



With southerners on ice & wow that flooding down under...just doesn't seem slow enough for music videos.
Wow from friction! And on the cold ice too.
Member Since: Junio 21, 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 1657
293. Skyepony (Mod)
4:50 AM GMT en Enero 11, 2011
Mel~ Haven't seen Aussie in some time.

Classic Simpsons moment. SOmeone in Atlanta today kept spinning on the ice til his car caught fire.



With southerners on ice & wow that flooding down under...just doesn't seem slow enough for music videos.
Member Since: Agosto 10, 2005 Posts: 208 Comments: 39074
291. melwerle
4:07 AM GMT en Enero 11, 2011
Well - i blew off my trip to NYC today. I couldn't feel at ease not knowing if I would make it out of town by tomorrow night. I think I made the right decision but that's behind me I guess.

Has anyone heard from Aussie lately?
Member Since: Junio 28, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 1837
290. EnergyMoron
3:59 AM GMT en Enero 11, 2011
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


283... love it

if I could find a photo of Eugene Silar I would use it. The Vietnam era equivalent of being the odd conservative type who favors... resource conservation :).
Member Since: Diciembre 8, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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