Dangerous winter storm slams South, heads to New England; Indiana sets snow record
A powerful winter storm has brought heavy snow and dangerous amounts of freezing rain to much of the South, in a swath stretching from northeastern Texas to southern North Carolina. The storm began Sunday in Texas, then tracked almost due east, bringing snow amounts of 8 - 11 inches to southern Arkansas, northern Mississippi, northern Alabama, and southern Tennessee. As of 9am CST, the heaviest snow amounts as reported in the NOAA Storm Summary were 11 inches at Lawrenceburg, TN and 10 inches at Baldwyn, MS. The worst freezing rain was reported in central Georgia at Fort Valley, where 3/4" of ice had accumulated. Texarkana, Arkansas, had 1/2" of ice. Freezing rain amounts of 1/4 inch were also reported over much of northern Louisiana, central Alabama, and central Mississippi. A nasty mix of up to four inches of snow, sleet, and freezing rain hit the Atlanta, Georgia area, causing the cancellation of thousands of flights at the world's busiest airport. The storm will bring an additional 2 - 6 inches of snow to eastern Tennessee, central South Carolina, and central North Carolina today, with significant freezing rain possible in northern Georgia and portions of North and South Carolina. Below-freezing temperatures are expected to remain over the region through Wednesday morning, resulting in a long period of dangerous travel conditions.
Major Nor'easter expected for New York City and Boston
Today's snow storm is expected to push off the coast of North Carolina tonight, then "bomb" into a classic Nor'easter off the coast of New England on Tuesday and Wednesday. Up to a foot of snow is possible for New York City, Boston, and coastal Connecticut and Rhode Island beginning on Tuesday night. The Nor'easter will not be as intense as the December 26 blizzard, however. The winds from the new storm are expected to remain less than 35 mph, resulting in only minor coastal flooding and an absence of blizzard conditions (winds in excess of 35 mph and visibility less than 1/4 mile.)
South Bend nearly sets all-time Indiana snowfall record
An epic lake effect snow storm hit South Bend, Indiana Friday and Saturday, burying the city under a remarkable 36.6" of snow. It was the heaviest two-day snow storm in South Bend's history, breaking a record that had stood since 1909 (a 29" snow storm on January 30 - 31.) The 32.6" that fell in a 24-hour period between 4pm EST 1/7 and 4pm EST 1/8 came just 0.4" short of matching Indiana's heaviest 24-hour snow storm on record. Indiana's heaviest 24-hour snow event was the 33.0" that fell at Salem in December 2004, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt.
Figure 1. Snow from Saturday's record lake effect snow storm in South Bend, Indiana piles up. Photo by slowhiker.
While the current snow event is over, new snows are expected in South Bend beginning Wednesday, when a renewed strong northwesterly flow of air off of Lake Michigan will develop in the wake of the strong winter storm currently pounding the Southern U.S. Another 8+ inches of snow may fall in the South Bend area in the new storm.
Figure 2. True color satellite image of the South Bend, Indiana lake effect snow storm of Saturday, January 8, 2010 at 1:45pm EST. A well-defined band of heavy snow developed over Lake Michigan and anchored itself over South Bend, giving the city its heaviest snow storm on record. Image credit: NASA.
Jeff Masters
Overnight and are expecting 3" to 6" more before the storm pulls out on Tuesday
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Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL LOW
9:00 AM WST January 11 2011
========================================
At 8:00 AM WST, Tropical Low (996 hPa) located at 14.9S 108.3E, or 995 kilometers northwest of Exmouth has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The low is reported as moving west at 10 knots.
The low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 12 to 24 hours.
Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 14.8S 107.4E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS: 15.3S 107.8E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 7:00 AM UTC..
Gov. Mark Sanford declared a state of emergency Monday afternoon, due to ongoing severe winter weather that is affecting most of South Carolina. The official declaration of a statewide state of emergency allows state agencies to respond more quickly, reassign personnel and deploy vehicles and equipment. State officials are asking people to stay off the roadways except in cases of extreme emergency or necessity. There have been reports of accidents and disabled motorists throughout the state. As of Monday afternoon, 357 law enforcers from the South Carolina High Patrol, the State Law Enforcement Division and the Department of Natural Resources were responding to incidents. Wrecker teams made up of 120 National Guard soldiers have been placed on active duty to assist local responders and state agencies. The crews will assist with vehicle accidents and roadway clearing. The State Emergency Operations Center is staffed with members of the State Emergency Response Team, according the governor’s office.
Although the rainfall trend has been pretty flat for the last 60 years.
Nobody should be ever be trying to drive on ice, which central SC got plenty of.
SOUTH CAROLINA
..AIKEN COUNTY
AIKEN 1.00 344 PM 1/10 POWER OUTAGES
..BAMBERG COUNTY
BAMBERG 0.25 411 PM 1/10 POWER OUTAGES
..BARNWELL COUNTY
BARNWELL 0.25 418 PM 1/10 SLUSHY ROADS
..CALHOUN COUNTY
ST. MATTHEWS 0.12 535 PM 1/10 PATCHY ICE ON ROADS
..CLARENDON COUNTY
MANNING 0.50 542 PM 1/10 SOME POWER OUTAGES
..EDGEFIELD COUNTY
TRENTON 0.50 611 PM 1/10 ICY ROADS
..LEE COUNTY
BISHOPVILLE 0.25 739 PM 1/10
4 NE BISHOPVILLE 0.25 739 PM 1/10 ICY ROADS
..LEXINGTON COUNTY
CAYCE 0.25 515 PM 1/10
..MCCORMICK COUNTY
MCCORMICK 0.25 620 PM 1/10 ICY ROADS
..NEWBERRY COUNTY
NEWBERRY 0.25 728 PM 1/10
..ORANGEBURG COUNTY
10 NW ORANGEBURG 0.50 640 PM 1/10 ICY ROADS
..RICHLAND COUNTY
WHITE ROCK 0.50 653 PM 1/10 WET ROADS
..SALUDA COUNTY
SALUDA 0.25 701 PM 1/10
..SUMTER COUNTY
SUMTER 0.25 438 PM 1/10 ROADS WET
..SPARTANBURG COUNTY
4 S GREER 0.10 700 PM 1/10 GSP NWS OFFICE
..UNION COUNTY
JONESVILLE 0.20 550 PM 1/10 0.2 INCH SLEET AND ICE
The National Hurricane Center has officially changed its name from Tropical Prediction Center to National Hurricane Center. Although the name change took effect during 2010, NHC products will not reflect the new name until January 10, 2011 at 1200 UTC (7AM EST).
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL LOW 09U
15:00 PM WST January 11 2011
========================================
At 2:00 PM WST, Tropical Low (994 hPa) located at 14.9S 107.7E, or 1035 kilometres northwest of Exmouth has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving west at 6 knots.
Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS
Gale Force Winds
=================
80 NM from the center
The low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 12 to 24 hours.
Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 15.1S 107.6E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 15.5S 108.3E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 16.6S 111.8E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
72 HRS: 18.0S 115.2E - 85 knots (CAT 3)
Additional Information
======================
The LLCC is clearly visible in VIS imagery, and the fix is based on this. The LLCC has improved significantly and the CDO has shown some consolidation despite ongoing shear of close to 30 knots indicated on the CIMSS analysis. The shear is forecast to drop overnight due to a retrogressing upper trough, though models differ on the relative location of the LLCC to the upper trough, leading to some uncertainty as to how much the shear will drop. However in general conditions should be much more favourable for development over the next 48 hours.
The Dvorak analysis is based on a shear pattern with less than 0.5 degrees separation between the LLCC and the CDO. The improvement evident in the LLCC allows an assignment of 2.5. Curved band patterns give a wrap of 0.35 yielding a DT of 2. The improvement in the LLCC and consolidation of the CDO warrant a 24 hour trend of D and this gives a MET of 2.0. The PAT is 2.5 and as there is no FT constraint on assigning 2.5 [6 hour old FT was 2.0, 24 hour old FT 1.0] this is set as the FT and CI. The ASCAT pass at 0235Z indicates a circulation of around 30 knots with gales in the southwest quadrant, consistent with the Dvorak analysis.
Models all indicate the system will recurve to head east towards the coast within the next 12 hours and will again recurve, this time to head westwards around 12Z on 14 Jan [ /- 12 hours]. There is significant divergence between the models on how fast the system will move while on the east southeastwards track with some models bringing the system onto the coast while others imply no coastal impact, with the system recurving well off the coast.
STIPS and model guidance generally do not show strong intensification during the next 48 hours but an assessment of the synoptic conditions indicates favourable conditions hence the system is forecast to intensify at roughly the climatological rate.
The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 13:00 PM UTC..
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #6
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03F
18:00 PM FST January 11, 2011
====================================
At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (996 hPa) located at 19.3S 169.6E is reported as slowly moving. Position GOOD based on multispectral infrared imagery with animation and peripheral surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 29C.
Gale Force Winds
=================
clockwise winds 30-35 knots within 90 to 240 NM away from the center in sectors from north through east to southeast
Convection remains persistent in the last 6 hours with one band to the north, the other band to the south. Slight warming of tops past 3 hours. Overall organization increased past 24 hours. TD 03F lies along a surface trough and under a 250 HPA diffluent region. CIMSS indicates a moderately sheared environment. System currently steered by weak northerly.
Dvorak analysis based on 0.35 LOG10 Spiral yielding DT=2.0, MET=2.5, PT=2.0 and FT based on DT.
Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS.
Most global models has picked up the system and moves it south southwest at 5 knots with some intensification.
The potential for this tropical depression to form into a tropical cyclone within the next 24-48 hours is HIGH.
The next tropical cyclone advisory issued by Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at around 14:00 PM UTC..
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
423 AM CST TUE JAN 11 2011
ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-111800-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM...
MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN...
PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...GREENVILLE...
LUVERNE...BRANTLEY...ATMORE...BREWTON...EAST BREWTON...
ANDALUSIA...OPP...MOBILE...PRICHARD...SARALAND...BAY MINETTE...
TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE...FOLEY...
SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...PENSACOLA...
FERRY PASS...BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY...
MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE...MILTON...GULF BREEZE...CRESTVIEW...
WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH...NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE...
EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO...WAYNESBORO...RICHTON...BEAUMONT...
NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE...MCLAIN...WIGGINS...LUCEDALE
423 AM CST TUE JAN 11 2011
...COLDER AIR FLOWING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY AND
BRING A PERIOD OF SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER TEMPERATURES AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR A HARD FREEZE. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO
THE LOWER TWENTIES ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND INLAND
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA WITH MID TWENTIES CLOSER TO THE COAST AND OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. AREAS NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL HAVE
LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER TWENTIES. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE LOCAL HARD FREEZE CRITERIA OF TWENTY
DEGREES BUT RESIDENTS WILL NEED TO TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO
PROTECT SENSITIVE VEGETATION AND OTHER ITEMS VULNERABLE TO SUB
FREEZING TEMPERATURES. SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND A HARD FREEZE WATCH FOR
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL ALABAMA MAY BE REQUIRED.
$$
glad- SO GLAD- for where I live now, and not further north or further west. I hope you're staying warm, altho I kinda doubt it.
I think your right,local mets say we in the caribbean will experience less rainfall over the coming decades.
Good morning. Agree...I'll take this weather anyday compared to up north.
39.4 at my location.
Cold here this week...
Today: Partly sunny, with a high near 49. North northwest wind between 5 and 10 mph.
Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 26. Wind chill values as low as 18. North northwest wind around 10 mph.
Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 45. Wind chill values as low as 17 early. North northwest wind between 10 and 15 mph.
Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 23. Wind chill values as low as 16. North northwest wind between 5 and 10 mph.
Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 44. North northwest wind between 5 and 10 mph.
Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 21.
Lots of daily rainfall (123) and snowfall (228) records were set or tied in the CONUS yesterday. Among the rainfall records: 4" at both Newberry, SC, and Sparta, TN. Snowfall-wise: 10.5" at Red Cloud, NE, and 8" at Lynchburg, TN
There were no record daily highs yesterday, and just a smattering (8) of record daily lows. The coldest: -30 at Maybell, CO (high in the Rockies; Maybell is the location of the coldest temp ever recorded in the state: -61 in February, 1985).
39.6 right now. Looks like a warm-up over the weekend and into early next week before more cold, although the cold for next week is questionable...right now.
What happened to the warm winter?
yeah right!!! I had tomatoes cukes squash all bearing quite nicely....well till thanksgiving now they are all long DEAD
grrrr at least I don't have snow and ice covering everything
I can live and more importantly, work, without the snow and ice.
My yard is covered in leaves. Weather hasn't been nice enough to work in it this winter...so far.
My rain gauge is doing it's duties:)
I'd hate to get stuck under 93P. One worth looking for a TRMM pass of. This image will update to the most recent. At the moment it more black & white then red all over.
Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS
Gale Force Winds
=================
80 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 15.1S 107.3E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 15.5S 108.2E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 16.6S 112.2E - 70 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS: 18.2S 114.8E - 85 knots (CAT 3)
Additional Information
======================
The LLCC was clearly visible on VIS imagery. Recent microwave imagery showed the exposed LLCC and assisted in locating the centre. The LLCC has improved significantly and the CDO has shown some consolidation despite ongoing shear of close to 20 knots as indicated on the CIMSS analysis. The shear is forecast to drop overnight due to a retrogressing upper trough, though models differ on the relative location of the LLCC to the upper trough, leading to some uncertainty as to how much the shear will drop. However, in general, conditions should be much more favourable for development over the next 48 hours.
The Dvorak analysis is based on a shear pattern with less than 0.75 degrees separation between the LLCC and the CDO giving a DT of 2.5. The improvement in the LLCC and consolidation of the CDO warrant a 24 hour trend of D and this gives a MET of 2.0. The PAT is 2.5 and so the FT and CI are set to 2.5. The ASCAT pass at 0235Z indicates a circulation of around 30 knots with gales in the southwest quadrant, consistent with the Dvorak analysis.
All models indicate the system will recurve towards the southeast within the next 6 to 24 hours and will again recurve, this time to head westwards around 12Z on 14 Jan [+/- 12 hours]. There is significant divergence between the models on how fast the system will move while on the east southeastwards track with some models bringing the system onto the Pilbara coast while others imply no coastal impact, with the system recurving well off the coast.
STIPS and model guidance generally do not show strong intensification during the next 48 hours but an assessment of the synoptic conditions indicates favourable conditions for development, hence the system is forecast to intensify at roughly the climatological rate.
The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 19:00 PM UTC..
Statement as of 8:53 AM EST on January 11, 2011
... Dangerous driving conditions continue across north and parts of
central Georgia...
A winter storm that tracked through Georgia Sunday night and Monday
dumped snow... sleet... and freezing rain across the state. With the
cold temperatures and low level moisture in place... freezing drizzle
persisted through the night. Although the freezing rain is
diminishing and no additional ice accumulation is expected...
driving conditions will remain treacherous across north and much
of central Georgia.
North Georgia and parts of central Georgia still have snow... sleet
and ice on the ground. Temperatures will climb to just above
freezing this afternoon... but will drop back into the 20s tonight.
This will allow for any moisture on the sidewalks and roadways to
freeze.
Although the best option is not to drive in these hazardous
conditions... use extreme caution if you must travel. Slow down and
leave extra time to reach your destination.
atlanta DOT uses the word "logjammed"
and more below freezing temps are expected
thanks for checking in- sounds scarey but your attitude sounds good
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
830 AM EST TUE JAN 11 2011
.DISCUSSION...LUCKILY...IT APPEARS WE AVOIDED THE THREAT FOR
POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS FREEZING DRIZZLE LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS
MORNING...AS TEMPERATURES REMAINED ABOVE FREEING THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...EVEN THOUGH THE SFC LOW HAS RE-DEVELOPED WELL TO OUR
NE...THE ENTIRE CWA REMAINS ENGULFED IN LOW CLOUDINESS WITH PATCHY
DRIZZLE CONTINUING IN SOME AREAS. BELIEVE THE CURRENT FCST IS WELL
ON TRACK WITH THE LOW CLOUDS...AS IT MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FOR EXTENSIVE CLEARING TO OCCUR. PART OF THE REASON THAT
THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL TAKE SUCH A LONG TIME TO BURN OFF IS THE
MASSIVE 18 DEGREE INVERSION IN THIS MORNING`S TALLAHASSEE SOUNDING.
WHILE IT IS 37 DEGREES F AND SATURATED AT THE SURFACE...IT IS 55
DEGREES AT 4100 FT (OR 880 MB). THIS CANOPY SHOULD HOLD DOWN HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO THE MIDDLE 40S WELL TO THE NORTH...AND TO THE LOWER
50S FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...AND IF IT DOES NOT BREAK OUT AT ALL...
HIGHS COULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER. OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...THE
NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED TO AROUND 10 KNOTS NEARSHORE AND 10 TO
15 KNOTS OFFSHORE WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS.
We're Florida Keys folks but have property up here also. We drove up Saturday just for the event. We don't get to play in the snow to often. The four wheelers are a blast in it.
NEW BLOG!!!
Somewhere around Monday. Have our younger son with us detoxing from Oxys, so we're having our ups and downs. Still doesn't stop nature from being beautiful!!!
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