Little change to Caribbean disturbance 94L
An area of disturbed weather (Invest 94L) in the southern Caribbean between Colombia and Nicaragua has seen a modest increase in thunderstorm activity this morning, but is battling dry air, and the odds are against the system becoming Tropical Storm Virginie. Satellite images show that 94L has a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms, but the activity is increasing, and a low-level circulation is getting better defined. Water vapor satellite images show a large amount of dry air lies to the north over the northern Caribbean, and this dry air is slowing development. SSTs are warm, 29°C, and wind shear as analyzed by the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group is a moderate 10 - 15 knots.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 94L.
Forecast for 94L
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will remain in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, for the next five days. The modest shear and warm SSTs may allow for some slow organization of 94L over the next few days, if the storm can wall off the dry air at mid-levels that has been interfering with development. The models predict that the steering currents in the southern Caribbean will keep 94L moving generally west-northwestward at about 5 - 10 mph for the next three days, which would bring the storm ashore over Nicaragua or northeast Honduras on Wednesday. The models are not showing much development of 94L, and NHC is giving the system just a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday. I'd put the odds higher, at 30%. The Hurricane Hunter mission into 94L scheduled for today has been canceled, but is slated to go on Tuesday afternoon. At this time, it appears that 94L will stay confined to the Caribbean, and will not be drawn northwards across Cuba towards Florida and the Bahamas.
I'll have an update Tuesday.
Jeff Masters
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Westerly winds of 60 to 80 km/h will develop over southern sections of Greater Victoria, the Southern Gulf Islands and metro Vancouver tonight. Northwest winds up to 90 km/h will develop over west coast Vancouver Island this evening. This is a warning that potentially damaging winds are expected or occurring in these regions. Monitor weather conditions..Listen for updated statements.
Details
A deepening low pressure system is forecast to move from the north coast this evening and track across the southern interior tonight. In the wake of the low strong northwest winds reaching 90 km/h are expected over west coast Vancouver Island this evening and westerlies of 60 to 80 km/h are forecast to develop over Victoria, the Southern Gulf Islands and Vancouver tonight. Winds will abate early Tuesday morning as the low exits the interior.
OUTLOOK:(An increase in cloudiness and shower activity from Wednesday morning as cloudiness associated with a broad area of low pressure system over the southwest Caribbean drifts west to northwest) this is important anyway I am going to work tomorrow so by then we should have an idea of what's going on
For the moment, just a trop. Wave..... checking models....
TSPIN BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
TOTAL SNOWFALL IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES WITH 3
TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS. EXPECT 30 TO 40 MPH
WINDS IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS WITH THIS
STORM AS WELL.
We can't control our borders! ;)
We were going to build a fence...
Then someone said, lets flash up the BBQ and have a beer... so I guess we forgot ;)
a href="" target="_blank">Link
A little on the breezy side... and rain
Wind Warning
Details
A deepening low pressure system currently over the north coast will track across the southern interior tonight. In the wake of the low strong northwest winds up to 90 km/h will continue over West Vancouver Island tonight. Additionally, westerlies of 60 to 80 km/h will continue over Greater Victoria and the Southern Gulf Islands tonight and develop late this evening over metro Vancouver. Winds will gradually diminish early Tuesday morning as the low exits the interior.
Hazardous Weather Outlook
Overnight: A 30 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 35. South southwest wind between 14 and 21 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph.
Tuesday: A chance of rain before 11am, then a slight chance of rain and snow. Snow level 5300 feet lowering to 4700 feet. Partly sunny, with a high near 44. Windy, with a southwest wind between 24 and 32 mph, with gusts as high as 46 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.
I got this one. If you have windows, restart your computer in basic mode (F8 when booting), then go to start\user\whatever you are\AppData\local\temp\ and then eliminate the *.exe that starts with numbers. Then run your security software to get the rest of the files.
The Mosquito Coast will be full of newly hatched ones very soon.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2046
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0247 AM CST TUE NOV 16 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...THE FL PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 160847Z - 161115Z
SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE...PRIMARILY AFTER 10-11Z OVER
THE FL PANHANDLE WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES
THE MAIN THREATS. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE WW.
CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM SOUTH OF APALACHICOLA
WWD AND INTERSECTS A NE-SW ORIENTED BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING
FROM SOUTH OF GULF SHORES SWWD TO JUST OFF SERN TIP OF LA. ACTIVITY
IS DEVELOPING WITHIN A PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRENGTHENING SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS FEATURE WILL DEVELOP NWD
THROUGH THE WRN FL PANHANDLE INTO AL AS PRIMARY SURFACE LOW DEEPENS
AND LIFTS NWD INTO THE TN VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH NEWD EJECTING VORT MAX. BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW A RESERVOIR OF
70F DEWPOINTS OVER THE NRN GULF SOUTH OF E-W BOUNDARY. THIS FEATURE
WILL MOVE SLOWLY NWD AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS...AND IS
ALREADY APPROACHING THE COAST NEAR APALACHICOLA. REMAINING PORTIONS
OF THE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY NOT MOVE INLAND UNTIL AFTER 11Z.
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION AND POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED
STORMS WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY WHERE THE MOIST WARM SECTOR MOVES
ONSHORE. LARGE HODOGRAPHS ACCOMPANYING THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
PROMOTE A THREAT OF SUPERCELLS...BOWING SEGMENTS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. THE COASTAL BOUNDARY WILL MAKE ONLY LIMITED INLAND
PROGRESS THIS MORNING SUGGESTING THE THREAT AREA SHOULD REMAIN
SMALL.
..DIAL.. 11/16/2010
Afew hours old but if not a closed low, very close to being one, though weak.
As far as 94L...
SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
430 AM EST TUE NOV 16 2010
.SYNOPSIS...BROAD LOW PRES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE NW
AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THU. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN THU AND REACH THE WATERS N OF THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS SAT.
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST TUE NOV 16 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA REMAINS MINIMAL. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF
THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT DRIFTS WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/CANGIALOSI
NNNN
Still at 20% and I really thought it would say near 0% this morning the way it is looking.
Where did I say that I believed that? Please answer.
Goodmorning I need coffee!
Carb dist is almost dead.
I was almost fead once, 30 years ago
Actually time killed it. The time on the tropical season ran out for the lower 48, 2 months ago.
I hope it's finished for everyone.
well sorry IKE I thought that is what you intended when you posted that
These waves are incredible! Surfers ride massive 50-foot waves off Ireland
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