Caribbean disturbance 94L may develop early next week
An area of disturbed weather (Invest 94L) has developed in the southern Caribbean off the coast of Colombia, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression early next week. Satellite images show that 94L has a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms, but the activity is showing signs of organization, with several curved bands developing on the west side of 94L's center. Water vapor satellite images show a large amount of dry air lies to the north over the northern Caribbean, and this dry air may slow down development to a small degree. SSTs are warm, 29°C, and wind shear as analyzed by the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group is a moderate 10 - 15 knots.
Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of 94L.
Forecast for 94L
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will remain in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, through Sunday, then rise to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, Monday through Wednesday next week. The modest shear, warm SSTs, and relatively moist atmosphere should allow for some slow organization of 94L as it moves slowly westwards at 5 mph over the next two days. The models predict that the steering currents in the southern Caribbean will keep 94L moving generally westwards at about 5 mph for the next five days, which would bring the storm ashore over Nicaragua or northeast Honduras on Wednesday. Both the GFS and NOGAPS models show some modest development of 94L, and NHC is giving the system a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 94L on Monday afternoon. At this time, it appears that 94L will only be a concern for Central America. I give 94L a 50% chance of eventually becoming Tropical Storm Virginie.
I'll have an update Saturday by 1pm EDT.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 — Blog Index
How long ago?
Link
A little blurb on it in the news....
Go back to post #147 in this blog last night and you can see what happened. They were on the blog when it happened.
Before that, even; 137 & 139 were both by forum members who felt the quake...
lo que no entiendo es por q no hay replicas Aqui en el area oeste Puerto Rico,en Mayaguez, a 95 millas del epicentro se sinti pero muy poco.
TSPIN BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Click for larger image:
94L: Is predicted to form in about 36 to 48 hours on the GFS
Tropical Wave: The GFS shows it take a detour off the ITCZ and start heading toward the area where Tomas formed and forms pretty close to that area.
Nowcast as of 9:57 am EST on November 13, 2010
Now
strong low pressure system near Bermuda will create hazardous marine conditions for east central Florida through this weekend... A ridge of high pressure still aligned over the eastern United States will remain in place through tonight...as a large...powerful oceanic storm centered near Bermuda...continues to spin in place. Seas will build 8 to 11 feet within 20 nautical miles of the coast through tonight...while farther offshore seas will build 11 to 15 feet. Breaking waves will increase to between 8 and 11 feet during the early afternoon high tide today. Along with the rough surf...some cuts in The Sand Bar will develop...which will produce an increasing threat for strong rip currents during this afternoons outgoing tide. Boating and surf conditions will remain very hazardous through this weekend. Both a high surf advisory and a Small Craft Advisory remain in affect for the coastal and offshore regions...respectively. Additional details...including graphics are available online at: http://www.Srh.NOAA.Gov/mlb/blog.Php
Forecast for Coastal Volusia County
Updated: 3:36 am EST on November 13, 2010
High surf advisory in effect until 10 am EST Monday...
Today
Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 70s. North winds 5 to 10 mph becoming northeast in the afternoon.
» ZIP Code Detail
Tonight
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s. North winds around 5 mph.
Sunday
Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 70s. Northwest winds around 5 mph becoming north 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.
NFL: Date: Forecast:
Lions vs. Bills 1:00 PM EST on November 14, 2010 Chance of Rain, 59 °F
Vikings vs. Bears 12:00 PM CST on November 14, 2010 Partly Cloudy, 43 °F
College Football: Date: Forecast:
Bears vs. Big Green 12:00 PM EST on November 13, 2010 Clear, 58 °F
Eagles vs. Blue Devils 12:00 PM EST on November 13, 2010 Clear, 63 °F
Football (Soccer): Date: Forecast:
Vfl Osnabruck vs. Arminia Bielefeld 1:00 PM CET on November 13, 2010 Chance of Rain, High 57° F/ 14° C
1. FC Union Berlin vs. FSV Frankfurt 1:00 PM CET on November 13, 2010 Clear, High 57° F/ 14° C
NASCAR: Date: Forecast:
Ford 400 1:15 PM EST on November 21, 2010 Average High 79° F/ 26° C
Have a great Saturday everyone!
Hyperactive Atlantic Hurricane season continues!!!
Pre-95L/Tropcial Wave= Walter? 25% Of Forming At All
There's A 55% Chance Of Exhausting the naming list.
Getting To The Greek Alphabet is Prob. 26% Chance
Be Back Later....
:O)..The latest satellite map looks like August in the tropics..
Viewing: 201 - 221
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 — Blog Index