Hurricane Richard bears down on Belize
Data from an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft confirms that Richard has intensified to hurricane strength, as it bears down on the coast of Belize. At 7:30am CST, the aircraft measured surface winds of 85 mph. Winds at their 5,000 foot flight level were 97 mph, qualifying Richard as the 10th hurricane of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season. This year is now tied for sixth place for most hurricanes in an Atlantic hurricane season. This year's 17 named storms also ranks 6th most in history. Atlantic hurricane season records go back to 1851. Richard's center passed just north of the Honduras' Bay Islands this morning, bringing winds of 46 mph, gusting to 58 mph, to the Roatan Airport. Winds were clocked at 49 mph, gusting to 69 mph, at Calabash Bight on Roatan Island.
The latest 8am CST eye report from the Hurricane Hunters noted that Richard had formed a nearly complete eyewall, with a gap in the southwest side. Radar images from the Belize radar also showed this gap, but the gap closed at 9am CST, and Richard now has a complete eyewall, which will promote more rapid intensification. Recent satellite imagery shows a symmetrical, well-organized hurricane with respectable low level spiral banding, and upper level outflow improving in all quadrants. Richard has now walled itself off from the dry air to the storm's west, as seen on water vapor satellite loops.
Figure 1. The eye of Richard is very prominent in this radar image from the Belize radar taken at 9:15am CST 10/24/10. Image credit: Belize Meteorological Service.
Forecast for Richard
The latest set of 12am CST (6Z) model runs are in excellent agreement with Richard's track, taking the enter of the storm inland over Belize between 4pm - 9pm CST tonight. The latest radar animations from the Belize radar indicate that Belize City will experience a portion of the eyewall of Richard, and residents of Belize City can expect a 2 - 4 hour period of hurricane force winds to begin between 4pm - 6pm CST this evening. Tropical storm force winds of 39+ mph should arrive at the coast between 2pm - 4pm CST this afternoon. A good way to estimate these arrival times is using the wundermap with the "hurricane" layer turned on and the "wind radius" and "forecast" boxes checked. Richard is in a very favorable environment for intensification, with low wind shear between 5 - 10 knots, and warm water temperatures of 29 - 29.5°C. Given these conditions, and the fact that the eyewall is is now fully formed, Richard will probably undergo a period of rapid intensification that could take it to Category 2 strength with 100 mph winds at landfall this evening. Once inland, Richard's small size and relatively slow forward speed of 5 - 10 mph on Monday will lead to substantial weakening as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. The storm will probably be a tropical depression when it emerges over the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday--if it survives the crossing. If Richard does survive the crossing, high wind shear over the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday and Wednesday should keep the storm from intensifying. Richard should dissipate by Wednesday, before affecting any other land areas.
Invest 90L
A tropical wave (Invest 90L) centered 600 miles northwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa is encountering a very high 40 - 60 knots of wind shear. The shear is predicted to drop to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, Monday through Wednesday. This may give 90L the opportunity to develop, and the NOGAPS model is calling for 90L to develop into a tropical depression by mid-week. NHC is giving 90L a 10% of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday.
Next update
I'll have an update on Monday morning at the latest.
Our weather extremes expert Christopher C. Burt has a very interesting post today on the hottest temperatures ever measured on Earth.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Click for larger image:
I was thinking the same thing.
AL, 19, 2010102500, , BEST, 0, 172N, 882W, 80, 981, HU, 64, NEQ, 15, 10, 10, 15,
from its previous heading of (10.7degrees west of) WestNorthWest
H.Richard's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions had decreased to ~4.5mph(~7.2km/h) from its previous travel speed of ~11.3mph(~18.4km/h)
TropicalStormRichard
24Oct 12amGMT - 16.2n84.4w - 65mph(~104.5km/h) - 1000mb - #12A
24Oct 03amGMT - 16.3n84.6w - 70mph(~112.6km/h) - - 995mb - #13
24Oct 06amGMT - 16.4n85.1w - 70mph(~112.6km/h) - - 995mb - #13A
24Oct 09amGMT - 16.5n85.5w - 70mph(~112.6km/h) - - 995mb - NHC.Adv.#14
24Oct 12pmGMT - 16.8n86.4w - 70mph(~112.6km/h) - - 990mb - #14A
HurricaneRichard
24Oct 03pmGMT - 16.9n86.9w - 85mph(~136.8km/h) - - 991mb - #15
24Oct 06pmGMT - 17.1n87.5w - 85mph(~136.8km/h) - - 988mb - #15A
24Oct 09pmGMT - 17.2n88.0w - 90mph(~144.8km/h) - - 981mb - #16
25Oct 12amGMT - 17.2n88.2w - 90mph(~144.8km/h) - - 981mb - #16A
Copy&paste 16.2n84.4w, 16.3n84.6w, 16.4n85.1w, 16.5n85.5w, 16.8n86.4w-16.9n86.9w, 16.9n86.9w-17.1n87.5w, 17.1n87.5w-17.2n88.0w, 17.2n88.0w-17.2n88.2w, pnd, 17.2n88.2w-17.2n88.3w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the headings and distances travelled over the last 12^hours.
Using straightline projection upon the speed&heading averaged
over the 3hours spanning the last two reported positions:
~1 hour from now to GalesPoint,Belize
^ The westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 24 OCT 2010 Time : 231500 UTC
Lat : 17:17:42 N Lon : 88:22:41 W
TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
NO ADT ANALYSIS AVAILABLE
Updated: 18 min 15 sec ago
Heavy Rain
75 °F
Heavy Rain
Humidity: 100%
Dew Point: 75 °F
Wind: 33 mph from the ENE
Wind Gust: 55 mph
Pressure: 29.64 in (Falling)
Visibility: 0.9 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Mostly Cloudy 300 ft
Mostly Cloudy 4000 ft
Mostly Cloudy 25000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 16 ft
Guess very few people know we have waterfalls in Florida then.
see post 399
The oven's on, but nothing's cooking.
You walked into this one. You should be applauding Dr. Spencer for revising the temps UPWARD.
Yes, there was a change. If you read my post, you would see the "No change, really."
The change was made after analysis and other scientists identification of an issue relating to the newer AMSU (post 1998) vs. the older MSU (pre-1998) satellite data.
It was observed that Feb and Sep were anomalously warmer and cooler, respectively, than other data sets. The difference that was corrected is shown in this chart. This is a true, honest, comparison of the change.
Really no change overall. -0.014C average monthly difference, based on 14 months.
Doesn't change anything. Trend remains 0.132C per decade.
That is one one-hundredth and four one-thousandths of a difference. 1.4 cents to the dollar.
Electric bill of $101.40 is now $100.
Perspective is important.
That was the initial change.
Since that time and chart I linked, UAH has actually, again, revised... upward.
The current data set has 0.003C, for the average month over the older data set.
You should be happy with the change.
I never new Grand Cayman have mountains and harbors that look like the ones that you would find in Miami
In wunderkid's defense, if you have ever taught writing in college (I have) you would recognise that his "in Miami" was probably intended to refer only to the "harbors," not to the mountains.
AOI
TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 24 OCT 2010 Time : 234500 UTC
Lat : 17:19:03 N Lon : 88:27:39 W
TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
NO ADT ANALYSIS AVAILABLE
By a lifelong resident of Florida.
I've sure gotten old. I've had by-pass surgeries, hip replacements, even new knees. I'm half-blind and can't hear anything quieter than a jet engine. I take 40 different medications that make me dizzy, winded, and subject to blackouts. I can't remember if I'm 85 or 92, and have poor circulation; I hardly feel my hands and feet anymore. But thank God, I still have my Florida driver's license!
Hey!!!!!!!!
Month / V5.2 / V5.3 / Current
-------
Jan 2009 / 0.304 / 0.213 / 0.25
Feb 2009 / 0.347 / 0.220 / 0.26
Mar 2009 / 0.206 / 0.174 / 0.19
Apr 2009 / 0.090 / 0.135 / 0.16
May 2009 / 0.045 / 0.102 / 0.15
Jun 2009 / 0.003 / 0.022 / 0.05
Jul 2009 / 0.411 / 0.414 / 0.44
Aug 2009 / 0.229 / 0.245 / 0.24
Sep 2009 / 0.422 / 0.502 / 0.5
Oct 2009 / 0.286 / 0.353 / 0.36
Nov 2009 / 0.497 / 0.504 / 0.5
Dec 2009 / 0.288 / 0.262 / 0.29
Jan 2010 / 0.721 / 0.630 / 0.64
Feb 2010 / 0.740 / 0.613 / 0.61
Monthly Mean / 0.328 / 0.314 / 0.331
Diff from v5.2 / 0.000 / -0.014 / 0.004
If you stand close enough to him, you can hear the ocean
Episode 28 is funny. I don't watch it often, but they are funny.
Excuse me I was just sitting in on the class professor but do you mean "recognize"?
I want you to know I still enjoy driving, that is when I can find my keyes.
Isn’t it time to change your diaper? Calling nurse Mildred Ratched.
LOL.
WTNT64 KNHC 250104
TCUAT4
HURRICANE RICHARD TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
805 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010
...RICHARD MAKES LANDFALL IN BELIZE...
RADAR DATA FROM BELIZE INDICATE THAT THE EYE OF HURRICANE RICHARD
MADE LANDFALL AROUND 745 PM CDT...0045 UTC...ALONG THE COAST OF
BELIZE ABOUT 20 MILES...35 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BELIZE CITY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT LANDFALL WERE ESTIMATED TO BE 90
MPH...150 KM/HR.
If that were true, then harbor should have been spelled harbour, in keeping with the British orthography.
LOL, oh...It has so much more street credit with the z emphasized.
No, the spelling is
Recognize
It's not changed that often (crunch, crunch) LOL
Well technically speaking, I guess the temp at any time at any giving place is perfect for Ma Earth. Hope that clears things up!
Evening Everyone!
Howdy.
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