Hurricane Richard bears down on Belize
Data from an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft confirms that Richard has intensified to hurricane strength, as it bears down on the coast of Belize. At 7:30am CST, the aircraft measured surface winds of 85 mph. Winds at their 5,000 foot flight level were 97 mph, qualifying Richard as the 10th hurricane of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season. This year is now tied for sixth place for most hurricanes in an Atlantic hurricane season. This year's 17 named storms also ranks 6th most in history. Atlantic hurricane season records go back to 1851. Richard's center passed just north of the Honduras' Bay Islands this morning, bringing winds of 46 mph, gusting to 58 mph, to the Roatan Airport. Winds were clocked at 49 mph, gusting to 69 mph, at Calabash Bight on Roatan Island.
The latest 8am CST eye report from the Hurricane Hunters noted that Richard had formed a nearly complete eyewall, with a gap in the southwest side. Radar images from the Belize radar also showed this gap, but the gap closed at 9am CST, and Richard now has a complete eyewall, which will promote more rapid intensification. Recent satellite imagery shows a symmetrical, well-organized hurricane with respectable low level spiral banding, and upper level outflow improving in all quadrants. Richard has now walled itself off from the dry air to the storm's west, as seen on water vapor satellite loops.
Figure 1. The eye of Richard is very prominent in this radar image from the Belize radar taken at 9:15am CST 10/24/10. Image credit: Belize Meteorological Service.
Forecast for Richard
The latest set of 12am CST (6Z) model runs are in excellent agreement with Richard's track, taking the enter of the storm inland over Belize between 4pm - 9pm CST tonight. The latest radar animations from the Belize radar indicate that Belize City will experience a portion of the eyewall of Richard, and residents of Belize City can expect a 2 - 4 hour period of hurricane force winds to begin between 4pm - 6pm CST this evening. Tropical storm force winds of 39+ mph should arrive at the coast between 2pm - 4pm CST this afternoon. A good way to estimate these arrival times is using the wundermap with the "hurricane" layer turned on and the "wind radius" and "forecast" boxes checked. Richard is in a very favorable environment for intensification, with low wind shear between 5 - 10 knots, and warm water temperatures of 29 - 29.5°C. Given these conditions, and the fact that the eyewall is is now fully formed, Richard will probably undergo a period of rapid intensification that could take it to Category 2 strength with 100 mph winds at landfall this evening. Once inland, Richard's small size and relatively slow forward speed of 5 - 10 mph on Monday will lead to substantial weakening as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. The storm will probably be a tropical depression when it emerges over the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday--if it survives the crossing. If Richard does survive the crossing, high wind shear over the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday and Wednesday should keep the storm from intensifying. Richard should dissipate by Wednesday, before affecting any other land areas.
Invest 90L
A tropical wave (Invest 90L) centered 600 miles northwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa is encountering a very high 40 - 60 knots of wind shear. The shear is predicted to drop to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, Monday through Wednesday. This may give 90L the opportunity to develop, and the NOGAPS model is calling for 90L to develop into a tropical depression by mid-week. NHC is giving 90L a 10% of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday.
Next update
I'll have an update on Monday morning at the latest.
Our weather extremes expert Christopher C. Burt has a very interesting post today on the hottest temperatures ever measured on Earth.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Seems to be on the same spot to me:
Cerro Benito Juárez 210 m or 630 ft.
Cordón Puc 150 m or 450 ft.
aprox.....
Could be an image of a big lake!
You'll have to explain that one, I didn't get it. :S
EDITED: My bad, I see that you did post in-sync images.
That's 0215Z. Below is 0145Z, atm.
JMO. Not going to post the Belize radar pic because I think the inline placement is what has caused outage for the public there today. Here's the link for comparison.
Depends if it takes the highways across or goes the back roads. How you doing scott?
So I guess you are comparing images of different times? O.o
I posted a current image of the radar and a nasa one basically of the same time, check it out.
Wouldn't be a bad idea, if the subject came up in the future. LOL
Havoc from south of Fort Worth to northern Ky right now, storm report loaded, I saw the meso warnings this morning and didnt pay much attention until I noticed it exploading in IR off the LSU site while updating myself on Richard.
No Scott. Sorry.
My bad, I see that you did post in-sync images.
But, SSD vs. radar doesn't look the same, imo.
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL ESCAMBIA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA...
EAST CENTRAL BALDWIN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...
* UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
* AT 913 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 10 MILES EAST OF
ROBERTSDALE...OR 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF SUMMERDALE...MOVING NORTH AT
30 MPH.
19 mins ago
See 570 and my edit. :)
SSD sucks... LOL
They take so long to update and sometimes after it updates it goes back to a previous image, so now I prefer the NASA images. XD
But it would be weird if the eye isn't in the same place since there aren't any dry spots in the convection.... yet.
If it heads northwest I think the biggest effect it could have would be moistening the Caribbean.
Link
Location: 17.3°N 88.6°W
Max sustained: 90 mph
Moving: WNW at 9 mph
Min pressure: 981 mb
Ouch! Really sorry to hear that! Not a good thing to have at any age. Thought everyone got shots for that!
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