Paula continuing to weaken
Data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicates that Tropical Storm Paula continues to weaken. The aircraft's latest center penetration at 3:08pm EDT found top winds at their flight level of 10,000 feet of just 55 mph in the eyewall. The SFMR instrument saw surface winds near 65 mph. The eyewall of Paula has collapsed, and satellite imagery shows the storm has a lopsided appearance due to wind shear. The low-level center is almost exposed to view, the classic satellite signature of a storm under high wind shear. Since the high wind shear affecting Paula is pushing most of the storm's heavy thunderstorms to the north, Cuba is receiving very little rain from the storm. Havana has reported two brief rain squalls from Paula, and top sustained winds of just 20 mph. Sporadic heavy rains are affecting the Florida Keys today, with Key West picking up 1.01" inches of rain thus far. Weather radar out of Key West (Figure 2) noted several regions offshore where Paula has dumped 5+ inches of rain.
Figure 1. Radar image from the Pinar del Rio radar in Cuba at 3:15pm EDT on October 14, 2010, showing that Paula is now very disorganized. Image credit: Cuban Institute of Meteorology.
Figure 2. Radar-estimated precipitation for Paula from the Key West radar.
Forecast for Paula
The models continue to predict that Paula will move along the north coast of Cuba or just inland during the next two days. On this track, Paula will move over Cuba's capital, Havana, tonight and Friday morning. An extended period of time over mountainous Cuba will likely destroy a small storm like Paula by Friday night, particularly since the storm will be under 30+ knots of wind shear. The models are pretty unanimous in showing that wind shear will pull Paula apart over the next day regardless of whether or not the center stays over water. Tropical storm force winds extend out just 45 miles to the north of Paula's center, so it is unlikely that the Florida Keys will experience sustained winds of 39+ mph. The 11am EDT wind probability product from NHC gives Key West a 21% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds; these odds are 70% for Havana. Havana may receive some minor wind damage from Paula, and there may be some minor flooding problems in the mountainous regions of Cuba.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The latest 8am EDT (12Z) NOGAPS and GFS model runs continue to predict the formation of a tropical depression 4 - 5 days from now, in the southern Caribbean off the coast of Nicaragua. The storm is predicted to move northwest or northwards towards the Cayman Islands and Jamaica, once it forms. The GFS model has been pretty reliable in forecasting the genesis of new tropical depressions this year, and the fact that we have two major models predicting the formation of a new Caribbean tropical depression next week is worth paying attention to.
In the Western Pacific, Tropical Storm Megi is nearing typhoon strength, and is predicted to intensify into a major typhoon that will strike the northern Philippine Island of Luzon on Sunday night or Monday morning.
Next update
I'll have an update Friday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Crestview, Florida (Airport)
Updated: 1 hr 0 min 12 sec ago
Clear
41 °F
Clear
Humidity: 89%
Dew Point: 38 °F
Wind: Calm
Pressure: 30.08 in (Rising)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Pollen: 6.20 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 210 ft
??????? I don't think s. Maybe you should drink some more coffee and look again. U might have a shield but south Florida looks to be in the crosshair with little shear forecasted in its path
I've got 49.3 outside.
Spent Friday through Tuesday in Tampa visiting my son. I'm thinking I may need to go back down there. :)
Chamber of Commerce weather for the next week....
Today: Sunny, with a high near 81. North wind between 5 and 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Tonight: Clear, with a low around 46. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm.
Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 81. Calm wind becoming north around 5 mph.
Saturday Night: Clear, with a low around 44. Calm wind.
Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 83. Calm wind becoming east around 5 mph.
Sunday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 44. Calm wind.
Monday: Sunny, with a high near 84. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph.
Monday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 50. Calm wind.
Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 81. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph.
Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 53.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 82.
Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 52.
Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 80.
Key West airport has had 1.51 since Wednesday.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI OCT 15 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON WEAKENING
TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAULA LOCATED ON THE NORTH COAST OF CENTRAL
CUBA.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Maybe next year.......
i can't even watch "The Bold & The Beautiful" on the TWC as we've lost signal...
Side note from me.
Hey Nea! One of your most consistant critizisms of JB is that he doesn't admit his mistakes. That's not remotely true. Read on.
FRIDAY 12:15 AM
WILL BOSTON GET STRONGER WINDS THAN HAVANA?
HAVANA did have gusts to 55 mph as Paula went by south of the city. It is over land moving slightly south of east, but I am surprised that it is not turning more southeast. The center is staying together enough so the deep layer flow is pulling it out enough so it may get back over the water on the northeast coast of Cuba and stall. Clearly the hurricane center has had a better end game idea with this than I. I will admit that though.
But the rapidly deepening storm off New Jersey will have pressures lowere than the lowest pressure that Paula ever got too, and this is going to lash the coast with howling winds. Boston could get gust over 55 both from the northeast, then the northwest with this
I trust everyone is seeing how the model is picking up on what should be Richard for next week.
ciao for now ****
Click for larger image:
Things are even warmer, of course, in the Caribbean and Atlantic portion of the MDR, which is normal and expected. I foresee yet another 3-5 TCs for the year. While it's unlikely (though not impossible) that any one of those could sneak through to the northern GOM, pretty much every other part of the MDR is still open for business. Lots of watching to be done these next seven weeks (and possibly beyond).
I'm speechless! I'll have to mark that one down in my JB calendar. ;-)
I'll keep pointing em out for you.
Also if you had been reading his post recently,(Like u say u do) he has said several times that he blew his landfall forecast for the US this year.
I wouldn't attempt to forecast tracks of systems for a season.
Nearly impossible to forecast. I'm convinced.
AOI
TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
I agree with you but the problem we deal with is statistics. If the experts are forecasting a certain number of storms then pure history would say that X number of storms would make a U.S. landfall. I guess this is how we get averages. Some years have a high number of landfalls balanced by a year like this year in which there were minimal U.S. landfalls.
And just our luck (Sarcasm), there is a good chance we will see Richard develop in the Caribbean next week.
Are you kidding? Hate the idea of living in Metairie, lived there as a kid. Heck, Baton Rouge is a third world country now...
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