Paula weakens, heads towards Cuba
Data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicates that Hurricane Paula has weakened substantially, and may now be a Category 1 hurricane. The aircraft has made three penetrations of the eye as of 3:30pm EDT, and found top surface winds of 80 mph with their SFMR instrument. Top winds seen at flight level of 10,000 feet were 92 mph, which translates to 83 mph surface winds, using the 10% reduction rule of thumb. Based on these data, it is reasonable to assume Paula is now a Category 1 hurricane with 85 - 90 mph winds, since the aircraft may not have sampled where the peak winds were occurring. Paula is in the Yucatan Channel, the narrow gap between Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and the western tip of Cuba, and has now turned and is headed northeast towards Cuba. A rain band with heavy rains lies over the western tip of Cuba, and Cabo San Antonio on the western tip of Cuba picked up 2.80" of rain so far today from Paula. However, the winds have remained below 15 mph.
Figure 1. Radar image from the Pinar del Rio radar in Cuba at 3:15pm EDT on October 13, 2010, showing the eye of Paula near the western tip of Cuba. A strong spiral band was affecting western Cuba at this time. Image credit: Cuban Institute of Meteorology.
High wind shear due to strong upper-level winds out of the south are starting to tear up the southern portion of Paula, and satellite imagery shows the storm now has a lopsided appearance due to the shear. Low level spiral banding is no longer as impressive, and lines of low-level arc-shaped clouds are racing away from the southern portion of Paula, indicating that the hurricane has ingested dry air that has created strong thunderstorm downdrafts. Ingestion of this dry air is partially responsible for Paula's recent weakening. Water vapor satellite loops confirm the presence of a large amount of dry air on the south, west, and north sides of Paula.
Forecast for Paula
A small storm like Paula may weaken very quickly under the current 30 knots of wind shear and the dry air surrounding it. However, the latest 3pm EDT eye report from the Hurricane Hunters indicated that Paula's eyewall still remained solid, so Paula may be able to hang on for a few more hours before the shear drives dry air into the inner core and destroys the eyewall. Once that occurs, Paula should weaken more rapidly. I'd be surprised if Paula was still a hurricane on Thursday morning, even if it does not hit Cuba. Hurricane force winds extend out just fifteen miles from Paula's center, so only a very small region of coast will receive Paula's strongest winds if landfall occurs. The 11am EDT wind probability product from NHC gives Cabo San Antonio on the western tip of Cuba the highest odds of receiving hurricane force winds of any land area--a 35% chance. Key West is given a 4% chance, and Havana, Cuba, an 8% chance. These probabilities are slightly higher than they were in the 5am advisory, reflecting Paula's ability to hang tough in the face of 30 knots of wind shear. It currently appears that heavy rain will be the major threat from Paula. If Paula stalls over or near western Cuba for several days, the hurricane could easily dump more than ten inches over mountainous regions of the island.
The latest SHIPS model forecast calls for wind shear to rise to a very high 35 - 40 knots on Thursday afternoon, and remain above 25 knots for the rest of the week. This high shear, combined with the expected landfall of the center over mountainous Cuba, should be enough to destroy Paula by Sunday.
The latest set of model runs from 8am EDT (12Z) are very similar to the previous sets of runs. There are two basic solutions. One solution, championed by the GFDL and GFS ensemble mean, takes Paula just south of the Florida Keys on Friday morning, then into the Bahamas Friday afternoon. The other solution, offered by the rest of the models, is for Paula to move very slowly over western Cuba the next few days, then circle southeastwards into the Caribbean, as a strong high pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico intensifies and pushes Paula to the south. This is the more likely scenario, given the current trends in how the models are depicting evolution of the jet stream pattern over the U.S. in the coming days. However, residents of South Florida, the Keys, and the Bahamas should be anticipate the possibility of Paula coming their way as a weak tropical storm on Friday.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The NOGAPS model is predicting the formation of Tropical Storm Richard 5 - 6 days from now, in the southern Caribbean off the coast of Nicaragua, near where Paula formed. The GFS has just a strong tropical disturbance forming there.
In the Western Pacific, Tropical Storm Megi has formed, and is predicted to be a major typhoon that will threaten the northern Philippine Island of Luzon early next week.
Next update
I'll have an update Thursday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 — Blog Index
Don't feel too badly. When I tell people I lived in Norway, I can't tell you how many people have asked where that was or if it was in Europe.
No, just a high, cold cloud top
RADAR LINK
I'm no expert, but can't be with the swaths ascending and descending.
That implies that the sat is orbiting pole to pole, no?
Nice, but all I see is more of the Atlantic.
All 33 miners have been RESCUED
Nah, that's polar orbit. I think your right, its in LEO and in polar orbit.
The slimmest of windows remains for Paula to move north just enough for her to go into Key West.
I'm holding out on some hope, too! :)
We're only talking 20 miles of northerly component for her to hit us!
That's the point lol
And not 10. Nor 11.
*smack!*
It's a badly sheared hurricane. What do you think it is?
Honestly it's amazing me that it's holding it's own in such bad shear. Is there some kind of record for hurricanes surviving for a duration under X knots of shear?
If that storm pans out, it could be the first flurries (or lake effect flurries) of the season in the Lake Superior region. Which is actually right on schedule for the first flake to be spotted.
22:21 NW 28 G 32 Heavy Rain and Windy
You dont believe us???
Good evening all.
LOL. but in this medium, you can never actually tell.
I actually made a report of Norway in 8th grade so I know where it is. :D
I heard there was a quake in Oklahoma, where's that in the US? XD
I'm not flawless... :(
LOL, now I'm gonna bust out a conspiracy theory. No 0015Z pic in the SSD loop, which just so happens to be the time on the RAMMB image.
Or, could be a sign that I watch waaaay too much Sat.
Greetings, SpaceNodule.
All is well?
Under starry skies here, with a trace of the Dreaded Sahara Dust.
Cooling down now.
Was a hot one.
My mom felt it... (in NE Oklahoma) rattled a few things around. No real damage resulting from that I've heard of.
Ah I see.
Also that's good! Damage sucks!
(I know y'all have been waiting all day....)
temp 81 F
humid. 84%
Max temp today 93F
Clear.
Thanks!
Of course it could be possible IE: Mars is a borough in Butler County, Pennsylvania, USA. The population was 1746 at the 2000 census.
That would be really awesome! Unfortunately, I don't have TV at my house...
:)
Don't worry, in college I couldn't believe people asked me if I really lived in trees in Jamaica. So I told them with a really straight face... yes and I eat coconuts all day long. Ask a stupid question, get a stupid answer.
Question: If Paula makes an eastward turn (below Cuba)is it possible for her to retain enough energy to be a problem for Jamaica?
I sure hope so!
Ran some water from the hose up there (had to be a little careful due to the electricity point close by!)
Seems good now.
A flashing into a blockwall...
you know the thing.
Viewing: 351 - 401
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 — Blog Index