Tropical Depression Fifteen forms in the Caribbean
Tropical Depression Fifteen is here, and is destined to become Tropical Storm Matthew by late this afternoon or this evening. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft left the storm near 2pm EDT this afternoon, and on their final pass through the strong northeast quadrant of the storm, found a substantial area of surface winds of 40 - 45 mph with their SFMR instrument. Top flight level winds at 500 feet were 48 mph. These winds support upgrading TD 15 to Tropical Storm Matthew. Satellite loops show that TD 15's heavy thunderstorm activity continues to increase in intensity and areal coverage, with several respectable low-level spiral bands in evidence. There is some dry air to the northwest of TD 15, but it is currently not significantly affecting development.
Figure 1. TD 15 at 11:50am EDT 9/23/10, as seen by NASA's Terra satellite.
Forecast for TD 15
An upper-level high pressure system lies to the west of TD 15, near the coast of Nicaragua. The clockwise flow of air around this high will bring a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over TD 15 today and Friday. There is some dry continental air lying to the northwest of TD 15, and this shear may be able to drive dry air into the storm, slowing intensification and keeping TD 15 below hurricane strength through Saturday morning. By Saturday afternoon, TD 15 will move more underneath this upper-level high, causing the shear to decline. The SHIPS model forecasts that shear will fall to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, Saturday through Monday. This drop in shear should allow for intensification of TD 15 into a hurricane, if the center stays more than 50 miles offshore.
The future track and intensity of TD 15 depends critically upon the storm's interaction with land over the coming days. If TD 15 misses making landfall in Nicaragua and Honduras, and instead skirts the north coast of Honduras, the storm is likely to intensify into a hurricane by Sunday, as indicated in the official NHC forecast. However, if TD 15 spends significant time over or barely offshore of Honduras, the storm will likely stay below hurricane strength. TD 15 is being forced just north of due west by a strong ridge of high pressure. This ridge will keep the storm moving at 15 mph through Saturday. On Sunday, a trough of low pressure diving southwards over the Eastern U.S. will weaken the steering currents over the Western Caribbean and cause TD 15 to slow and turn more to the north. TD 15 will begin a period of slow and erratic movement on Sunday that may last many days, as the storm wanders in the Western Caribbean and over Belize, Honduras, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. If the center of TD 15 spends significant time over water, the storm could easily develop into powerful and dangerous Hurricane Matthew. If the center remains mostly over land, TD 15 will still generate extremely heavy rains over Central America, but remain below hurricane strength. By late next week, the trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. may lift out, allowing a ridge of high pressure to build in and force TD 15 westwards across the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche. Alternatively, the trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. may amplify, drawing TD 15 northwards across Western Cuba and into Florida. A complicating factor may be the development of a new tropical depression in the Central Caribbean 6 - 8 days from now, as predicted by both the GFS and NOGAPS models with their latest 12Z (8am EDT) runs. The uncertainties in the long-range fate of TD 15 are high, and depend strongly on slight variations in its track that determine how much time the storm spends over land. One thing that is virtually certain is that TD 15 will generate very heavy rains over Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula Friday through Tuesday that will cause dangerous flooding rains and life-threatening mudslides.
Tropical Depression Lisa
Tropical Depression Lisa continues to churn the waters of the far Eastern Atlantic. By Saturday night, upper level winds out of the west are expected to increase, bringing high wind shear of 20 - 45 knots over Lisa. The high shear may be capable of destroying the storm by early next week. It appears unlikely that Lisa will affect any land areas.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The remnants of Hurricane Julia are still spinning over the far Eastern Atlantic, and are generating some sporadic heavy thunderstorm to the north of the center of circulation. Julia's remains are being given a 10% chance of re-developing by NHC.
Hurricane Karl's moisture causing flooding in Minnesota, Wisconsin
A plume of very moist air associated with what was Hurricane Karl last week has surged northwards over the Central U.S. over the past two days. This moisture is now being lifted over a warm front draped over Minnesota and Wisconsin, and has generated flooding rains in excess of six inches in southern Minnesota this afternoon. Flood warnings and flood watches are posted for a wide swath of the upper Midwest today, including most of southern Minnesota, northern Wisconsin, and Michigan's Upper Peninsula. These types of rain events are called Predecessor Rain Events (PREs), because they typically precede the actual arrival of the rain shield of a tropical storm.
Figure 2. Radar estimated rainfall over Minnesota.
Next post
I'll have an update on TD 15 Friday morning.
Jeff Masters
Neighbors help a driver to move his vehicle from the flood waters
Reader Comments
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Agreed....and (dating myself) years ago was really the only pro we could get hurricane info from when he was on Nightline or the major news outlets.
Link
Im supposed to head down there on Sunday-Tues....Im thinking no. Even if he is hover over the Yucatan...Im sure the weather is gonna suck
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST. MATTHEW IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE MATTHEW IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER LATE TODAY...THEN MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE
COAST OF NORTHERN HONDURAS ON SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
MATTHEW COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATE TODAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
Goodnight.
TampaSpins Blog Analysis:
The blog section will have less graphics about each storm but, all will be referenced to the Storm Center Observation Tab for more graphics.
Tropical Storm Matthew:
TS Matthew currently in the Central Caribbean is becoming much more organized tonite. It appears he is in the process of becoming a Hurricane within the next 12hrs. The Current forecast track is much devided with the Models. Many models keep Matthew moving into the Yucatan Pen. and nearly moving into the Pacific. Other models stall Matthew just before or barely onshore of the Yucatan Pen. and then turns Matthew to the North toward the GOM.
I currently am not sure and would hate to say which solution will come true, but my best guess would be a turn toward the North as a Weakness will be present between the Bermuda High and another area of High Pressure that does build in behind a Cold front. Models are hinting at a secondary area of Low pressure trying to form in the GOM as well. My guess is this is the same system "Matthew" the models are seeing. I don't feel very comfrontable currently for the West Coast of Florida from Naples to the Ocala area. Most models favor this area as well as a possible landfall for a Tropical Cyclone as much as i hate to say.
The Intensity of Matthew is next to impossible to forecast as Shear will increase in the GOM as Matthew moves north. The problem i see is how strong will Matthew be before it moves toward the GOM as he could stay just off shore of the Yucatan Pen. and move north between Cuba. Wow, we could be seriously see a Major Hurricane if this was to happen. I and no one knows exactly how this will play out until time evolves toward Sunday. My guess by Sunday the models will have a better idea as to what to expect from Matthew. STAY TUNED is all one can say and be prepared!
++
No it does not. Same storm.
Try this GFS
Just used that as a point of reference, I guess i could have said South of Gainsville as well.......LOL.....OH WELL!
By the way Ocala is only 15 minutes from the Coast as the larger Metropolitian area......guess i could have said Dunielle
When do the hunters take off again
I disagree.
It's just how the model is handling it, but it is the same storm.
Model is just readjusting... energy there... now energy here.
That's the way I'm reading it. Look how weak it has Matthew, which is forecast to hit CA as a Cat 1.
Dont think so IMO.....same system that just regenerates.
Exactly as i read it as well....Matthew loses some punch and comes back fighting in the GOM. That is what i see as well.
I too have trouble believing a piece of energy is "left behind" that forms into Nicole
lol
Euro times are unpredictable an be very late. Last update was yesterday morning at 7am.
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