Igor delivers punishing blow to Newfoundland; 95L growing more organized
Hurricane Igor delivered a punishing blow to Newfoundland Canada, which suffered one of its worst poundings by a hurricane in the past century. Igor made it all the way to southeast Newfoundland yesterday as a Category 1 hurricane, bringing a peak wind gust of 107 mph to Cape Pine in Southeast Newfoundland. Igor brought sustained winds of 58 mph, gusting to 85 mph, to Newfoundland's capital, St John's. The city recorded a remarkably low pressure of 958 mb, and picked up 3.99" of rain during Igor's passage. Widespread rain amounts of 5 - 9 inches fell over much of southeast Newfoundland's rocky terrain, which is unable to absorb so much water. The resulting severe flooding washed out hundreds of roads, collapsed several major bridges, and forced numerous rescues of people trapped on the second stories of their homes by flood waters. Igor generated swells of 6 - 8 meters (20 - 26 feet) that pounded the southern coast of Newfoundland last night and this morning; significant wave heights reached 39 feet at the Newfoundland Grand Banks Buoy, and a storm surge of a meters (3.28 feet) hit the northeast shores of Newfoundland last night. Igor is now a large and powerful extratropical storm off Greenland and Labrador, and continues to generate hurricane force winds over water--winds at Angisoq, Greenland were sustained at 66 mph this morning.
It is not that unusual for hurricanes to penetrate as far north as Newfoundland's latitude; over 40 hurricanes have done so. The last time this occurred was in 2003, when Hurricane Fabian made it to latitude 48.7°N as a hurricane. The all time record is held by Hurricane Faith of 1966, which followed the Gulf Stream and maintained hurricane status all the way north to latitude 61.1°N, just off the coast of Norway.
Figure 1. Little Barsway bridge 10 km north of Grand Bank, Newfoundland, after floodwaters from Hurricane Igor swept it away. Image credit: George J.B. Rose.
Figure 2. Hurricane Igor at 11:47am EDT on Wednesday, September 21, as it pounded Newfoundland as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Image credit: Environment Canada.
Figure 3. Video of impressive flooding on Newfoundland's Burin Peninsula, whose 20,000 residents were cut off from the rest of the province by flooded roads and closed bridges.
Dangerous Caribbean disturbance 95L growing more organized
A tropical wave (Invest 95L) moving westward at 15 mph though the south-central Caribbean is bringing gusty winds and heavy rain to the northern coast of Venezuela and the islands of Curacao, Aruba, and Bonaire this morning. A wind gust of 38 mph was recorded at Curacao last night. Radar from Curacao and satellite loops show that 95L's thunderstorms have a pronounced rotation, with a center of circulation located just off the coast of South America. Thunderstorm activity is fairly limited, but is slowly increasing in areal coverage and intensity. Wind shear over the Caribbean is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, for the rest of the week. NHC is giving the disturbance a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. I'd put the odds higher, at 70%. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate 95L this afternoon.
The wave should continue moving westward near 15 mph through Friday afternoon, when it will arrive near the northern coast of Nicaragua. Most of the models show some development of 95L by Thursday or Friday, and the disturbance will bring heavy rains to the Netherlands Antilles Islands and north coast of South America on today and Thursday as passes to the north. Heavy rains may also spread to Southwest Haiti and Jamaica on Thursday, and the Cayman Islands, Cuba, Honduras, and Nicaragua on Friday. When 95L moves over or just north of Honduras on Saturday, a trough of low pressure diving southwards over the Eastern U.S. will weaken the steering currents over the Western Caribbean and cause 95L to turn more to the northwest and slow. If the center of 95L remains over water, the storm could easily develop into powerful and dangerous Hurricane Matthew over the Western Caribbean early next week. Even if the center stays over land, the circulation of the storm may be capable of generating dangerous flooding rains over Central America. Steering currents will be weak over the Western Caribbean through the middle of next week, and 95L may spend up to a week over the Western Caribbean, drenching the region with very heavy rains. Another possibility is that the trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. will be strong enough to draw 95L northwards across western Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico 6 - 8 days from now. This solution is not being emphasized as much in today's model's runs as yesterday's, and the danger to the U.S. is uncertain at this point.
Figure 4. Morning satellite image of 95L.
Tropical Storm Lisa
Tropical Storm Lisa continues to churn the waters of the far Eastern Atlantic. By Friday night, upper level winds out of the west are expected to increase, bringing high wind shear of 20 - 45 knots over Lisa. The high shear may be capable of destroying the storm by early next week. It appears unlikely that Lisa will affect any land areas.
Georgette headed towards Arizona
Tropical Depression Georgette hit the tip of Baja California as a weak tropical storm with 40 mph winds yesterday, but dropped little rain. Georgette is in the Gulf of California, headed northwards, and could bring heavy rains to Arizona on Thursday.
Hurricane Karl's aftermath
Mexico continues to clean up from Hurricane Karl, which made landfall last Friday in Veracruz state as a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. Karl dumped approximately one foot of rain in the Sierra Madre Oriental Mountains, which cause some rivers to rise to unprecedented levels. The death toll from Karl's flooding and mudslides stands at 16, and ten of thousands remain in shelters after being displaced from their flooded homes. Insurance company AIR Worldwide is estimating insured losses at $100 - $200 million. Actual damage is estimated to be as much as $3.9 billion, since insurance take-up rates are low in Mexico. Karl is the second billion-dollar hurricane to hit Mexico this year; in June, Hurricane Alex hit just south of the Texas border as a Category 2 storm, killing 51 and doing $1.9 billion in damage.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS model predicts a new tropical depression might develop in the Central Caribbean about seven days from now. The NOGAPS model predicts a new tropical depression will form off the coast of Africa about seven days from now.
My next post will be Thursday morning.
Jeff Masters
A buoy is left stranded on the beach from the storm waves of Hurricane Igor...
Reader Comments
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Lol. Very True.
I actually moved from Ohio to South Carolina. So I'm possibly in line for some effects from this system. As a weather geek, I'll enjoy it. But I don't live on the coast. If I did, and I owned a place...I would for sure be hoping it didn't strengthen or hit.
How unlike them.
No, but hello.
95L...
95 is going to form a storm right before it hits land and as the Doc say get stuck in central america for a while. The was predicted by the GFS 4 days ago and has been consistent. As another trough approaches in about 4 days and a cold front makes it down into the area..either 95 will reform or a new COC will form off the coast and the cold front/trough will pick that up and curve it over Cuba/Hispanola then carry it north up into CONUS along what will be a stalled trough from the front and along the western periphery of the MA ridge. But it won't be the Monster storm of 250 hour prediction. More like a Paloma because it's going to have to deal with dry air and possibly shear to it's west.
Small chance the front will even be powerful enough to make it a wrong way storm although a front that powerful this early in the season would be amazing but the fact it forecast to go so far south is impressive.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/9mh.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/06/model_l.shtml
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/06/model_lu.shtml
http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/fax/PYEA11.gif
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/loop-avn.html
(In this case, due to recon, I'd expect the former. They'll let the HHs do their thing).
Not much to say that hasn't been said. Land interaction; Nic/Hond, Cuba, maybe S Fl, are all going to be a big part of what happens with 95. Plenty of wait and see as usual...
It should crawl in to the rapid scan frames on GHCC today...That'll be nice.
NOUS42 KNHC 211600
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1200 PM EDT TUE 21 SEPTEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-113
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA -- CARRIBBEAN
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 22/1800Z A. 23/0600-1200Z
B. AFXXX 01FFA INVEST B. AFXXX 0215A CYCLONE
C. 22/1700Z C. 23/0400Z
D. 12.5N 68.5W D. 12.6N 71.0W
E. 22/1730-2300Z E. 23/0500-1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT F. SFC TO 15,000FT
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 6 HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM
DEVELOPS.
3. REMARKS:
A.THE NCAR G-V MAY FLY A RESEARCH MISSION INTO THE
SAME AREA TOMORROW MORNING 41,000 AND 45,000 FT.
. B. NASA DC-8 MAY ALSO FLY THIS AREA DEPARTING AT 22/1600Z.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK......NEGATIVE.
Hi SJ, Jeff's already at BlogDefcon4; I'd say more like 2. 95L is looking like a TD sometime today though so that may help clear up matters at least in the short term.
Yeah, I would look at these storms a lot differently if I didn't own a house on the water where flooding could cause damage to my home/investment.
Good Morning all... Watching like everyone else here is.
Like the discussion from last night to this morning. It appears the blog is back to normal. Keep the banter going. I like to read about waht everyone thinks will happen and why.
How about: Deathcasters 4 - The Wunderground Room. Coming to a web browser near you.
22Sep 12pmGMT - - 12.5n69.1w - - 25knots -- 1009mb - NHC-ATCF
22Sep 06pmGMT - - 12.7n70.6w - - 25knots -- 1008mb - NHC-ATCF
23Sep 12amGMT - - 12.9n72.0w - - 30knots -- 1007mb - NHC-ATCF
23Sep 06amGMT - - 13.2n73.5w - - 30knots -- 1008mb - NHC-ATCF
23Sep 12pmGMT - - 13.5n74.8w - - 30knots -- 1007mb - NHC-ATCF
25knots=~28.8mph __ 30knots=~34.5mph
Copy&paste 12.5n69.1w-12.7n70.6w, 12.7n70.6w-12.9n72.0w, 12.9n72.0w-13.2n73.5w, 13.2n73.5w-13.5n74.8w, pnd, nbw, vqs, trb, 13.5n74.8w-15.42n83.8w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 24*hours.
* The westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection using the speed&heading averaged over the 6hours spanning the last two reported positions
Thanks for confirmation
Remember Epsilon back in 2005..
The forecast at the end was like
I KNOW YOU HAVE HEARD THIS BEFORE BUT TS EPSILON SHOULD DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS..
I don't trust the late season circle back around for a second try at infamy storms...
This bit?
LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.9 14.2 14.5 14.8 15.4 16.1 16.5 16.7 17.4 18.6 19.3 19.7
LONG(DEG W) 74.8 76.1 77.3 78.8 80.3 83.1 85.3 86.9 88.1 88.6 88.5 88.1 87.7
Here is the problem with your whole position.....
You are now embracing those same long term models that you just said were wrong. You can't say LT models suck, ignore them, when they call for strikes and then embrace them when they change and dissipate a storm.
If you say don't speculate just wait, then why are any of us here?
I think it's very uncertain how this will all play out and a lot has to do with timing.
If 95L strengthens quicker initially (as I think it is based on more surface convergence, 850 vort, etc) then a more northerly track would occur and it could bypass north of Honduras/Nicaragua staying over land and more favorable for development.
Then the timing of the cutoff low is important too... If it's later, then 95L moves into the Yucatan and spends time over land while slowly being drawn north. Then it's a weaker system, and a more hybrid subtropical low as it heads north to possibly affect the US. If it turns north bypassing the Yucatan you could have more of a Wilma style track (with a less strong easterly component) and a stronger, more tropical system.
None of this will be known for a while...
Models were forecasting to be a full blown storm by now and it's not even a TD yet - though soon it might be!?
Also, it seems to have picked up speed - at this rate it might hit land (Honduras) and hence run out of water space!
Also, long term future is also very uncertain - models arent in agreement...
Funny that the 'bad' girlfriends hang around, and the 'good' ones dissapear forever.
LOL
It's already up, Chicklit.
80% on 95L, 10% on ex-Julia.
Yes, that is the 06Z track interpolated (OFCI). Here is the track from the 06Z model cycle, they did not do a forecast of intensity, only track.
AL 95 2010092306 03 OFCL 0 130N 731W 30
AL 95 2010092306 03 OFCL 12 135N 756W 30
AL 95 2010092306 03 OFCL 24 142N 784W 30
AL 95 2010092306 03 OFCL 36 148N 814W 30
AL 95 2010092306 03 OFCL 48 155N 839W 30
AL 95 2010092306 03 OFCL 72 163N 872W 30
AL 95 2010092306 03 OFCL 96 177N 882W 30
AL 95 2010092306 03 OFCL 120 192N 875W 30
Has it going south of Belize, Belize by about 50 miles...then staying over the Yucatan peninsula for 2 days and going NE on the end of the run...exiting near the NE coast of the Yucatan.
That's the Outlook, Cotillion. If you look at the main NHC page Discussion is still from 2 a.m.
So this track has it riding over the north coast of Honduras and then riding over the eastern coast of the Yucatan. A lot of time over land and a weaker storm than it could be...
Ah, of course. Misread.
I see the TWD now, though.
TD today looks pretty likely. I'm guessing they will wait until they get recon in there. Hopefully once that info makes it in to the models we will get a little better idea too. I was thinking doomcom 4 would come when the first cone touches a state ;)
cat5-How long are you in the area for anyway? Going to be here long enough to see 95 pass by; should that be the route it takes?
THURSDAY 8 AM
JULIA SHOULD BE CLASSIFIED!!!
How they get away with this is amazing. The cloud shot of Julia shows she has broken away from the front
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ATL/atlrecentvis.html
And by the way Igor, when merging with the front, caused 107 mph winds on Newfoundland... I am sure it did that on Bermuda too, as the airport is not the best place for big wind gusts. Heck of a way to run a cat one..eh? In any case, I am putting this in perspective. The Hatch it guys named Grace last year further northeast. How is it a former cat 4 with that cloud structure, which by the way if you look at Lisa has distinct similarities, is not classified. It is doing as forecasted moving back to the southwest!
I dont know if it will survive as its moving toward a large area of sinking as evidenced by the strato cu. It should be trackable to near Bermuda next week though and certainly will be moving back toward the US quicker than Lisa..
BTW keep an eye on the cloud mass southwest of Lisa, that system is probably going to come in on the eastern flank of the Caribbean development The GFDL shows why this is so worrisome as without a landfall, this could be a monster. As it is, Florida and in fact the area from the southeast into the central gulf coast has to really pay attention in this pattern over the next few weeks as multiple threats are likely in this years end game
ciao for now ****
WEDNESDAY 11 PM
HEH..WHO'S THAT GETTING SOME CONVECTION..
JULIA!!!
Yes, the never say die in me is rooting for the written off storm to get at enough attention from the guys with the "hatch it" job to hatch here again... And why not? She looks as good as Lisa She sure as all get out looks as good as Grace last year, named well to the northeast of where she is now. Be the biggest comeback since the Karate Kid.
Of course eyes are trained on the Caribbean as well they should be and from last week we both know they would be. And a week from now Florida will be getting hit or getting ready to get hit ( maybe 2 weeks from now too). There are several keys here. not the least of which is the chance for one or more of these systems to "bundle" the energy available to them. Odds are enough skirting of central America and the Yucatan will take place to limit what this could be through Monday of next week.
Two sets of maps you should go look at are oct 10-20 1950 and 1964. One is the King, Love Duet , the other Isbell.
Okay back to me rooting on Julia.... after all my support I gotta wonder.. like Bobby Sherman, with a slight change in the name.. if Julia do ya love me?
Of course one would assume storms would have to have Feelings.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-3FMSXAfVp0&feature=related
after listening to that go to this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7hZI6qJBvDE
if you still arent sobbing, then perhaps you need a few verses of Killing me Softly
When a snowstorm misses me, this is how I feel.
ciao for now *****
I'm interested to see what they find. Not sure there is a closed circulation right now, but could be by then. I'd say 30% chance of a TD at 11 and 60% at 5pm.
Then the headaches will begin for C America and possibly the US.
Unless it really gets it's act together, it may not make it outta there. Belize won't be kind to it. That's some pretty rugged terrain.
Northern Gulf may not be too kind either, if it made it up here. I saw 66F on my patio a couple hours ago. For this time of year, it was chilly.
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N73W TO 17N72W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. A 1007 MB LOW IS ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS CENTERED NEAR 13N73W.
WHILE STRONG NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW IS OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA N OF THE LOW CENTER... MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A MID-LEVEL..700 MB... CIRCULATION COINCIDES WITH THE SURFACE LOW. THESE FEATURES ARE FORECAST TO TRACK WNW OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 69W-76W. ANOTHER 90 NM WIDE BAND OF SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AXIS NEAR 17N72W TO 12N62W.
I've been favoring a position like yours since the beginning on this one, but I've been wrong before (a lot). Gulf coast/FL haven't had much to worry about in a while, so that might be part of the hype. I live in VA so this one doesn''t have me too worried at this point so long as it doesn't stall out just off the east coast and turn into a long nor'easter event like Ida did last November. I do put a good amount of stock in the models even knowing that they are not very reliable so far out, so I'll just keep watching...
It doesn't actually have it making landfall in Nicaragua or Honduras (mainland). Exceptionally close, but not quite. If anywhere, it'd be Honduras.
It then takes it over Roatan, then going over Belize and hanging over the Yucatan for a while. For the interpolated.
Model cycle is a little lower and *just* has it clipping the north Honduran coast.
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