Intensifying Hermine closes in on the Texas/Mexico coast
Steadily intensifying Tropical Storm Hermine is closing in on the coast near the Texas/Mexico border, and should move ashore late tonight. Hermine became a tropical depression at 11pm last night, and could become a minimal hurricane by 11 pm tonight. Hermine's rate of intensification from nothing to a strong tropical storm is one of the fastest on record. It turns out that the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche, where Hermine formed, is prone to these sort of rapidly intensifying tropical storms. The curvature and topography of the land help induce a counter-clockwise spin to the air over the region, which helps get tropical storms spinning up unusually quickly. Helping the spin-up process are the very warm 30°C waters, low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and moist atmosphere. Hermine promises to be a very wet storm, and latest long range radar out of Brownsville, Texas shows a large area of heavy rain has been drenching southern Texas and northern Mexico all afternoon, with radar estimated rainfall amounts exceeding two inches in a few areas along the coast. Radar loops show that an eyewall is attempting to form, but a region of dry air from over land spiraled into Hermine's core between 4 - 5pm EDT, disrupting eyewall formation. However, it now appears that Hermine has closed off its eye from this dry air, which should aid in intensification. Satellite imagery shows Hermine has vigorous thunderstorms with very cold tops, and improving low-level spiral banding.
Forecast for Hermine
Hermine doesn't have much time over water before it comes ashore, which is a good thing. The storm is steadily organizing, and has a shot at reaching hurricane strength before the center moves ashore late tonight, near midnight. Heavy rain will be the main threat from Hermine, though isolated tornadoes may also cause damage, particularly over South Texas. Hermine is expected to accelerate through Central Texas Tuesday and Wednesday, and the storm's rains will help alleviate moderate to severe drought conditions affecting Central Texas.
Figure 1. Late afternoon radar image of Tropical Storm Hermine. Note the band of dry air spiraling into the core of the storm from the north.
Gaston continues to suffer from dry air
An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft spent the afternoon in Gaston's remains, and found a weak 1012 mb center of low pressure with only a limited region of westerly winds on the south side of the center of circulation. Top surface winds uncontaminated by heavy rain seen by their SFMR instrument were in the 30 - 35 mph range. The airplane found plenty of dry air in the storm's environment, and there are not enough heavy thunderstorms in ex-Gaston's circulation for it to qualify as a tropical depression. The remains of Gaston are now approaching the northern Lesser Antilles, and residents can expect a few heavy rain showers and wind gusts up to 40 mph beginning early this evening and continuing into the night. Latest radar out of Martinique doesn't show much in the way of heavy rain, and satellite imagery confirms that the thunderstorm activity associated with Gaston's remains is quite sparse. A large amount of dry air surrounds Gaston's remains on all sides, as seen on water vapor satellite loops.
Figure 2. Afternoon satellite image of the remains of Gaston, approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.
Forecast for Gaston
There is little change to the forecast for Gaston's remains. Dry air will continue to be the major impediment to development, and the system is unlikely to become a tropical depression today. However, wind shear, which is currently a moderate 10 knots, is forecast by the latest SHIPS model run to fall very low, 0 - 5 knots, tonight through Wednesday. With almost no wind shear affecting it, Gaston will a better chance of keeping the moisture from its heavy thunderstorms near its core on Tuesday. This will insulate the storm from the dry air surrounding it. The atmosphere is also moister in the eastern Caribbean, further increasing the chances of development. I believe it is probable Gaston will become a tropical depression again on Tuesday. NHC is currently giving Gaston a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday, which is a reasonable forecast.
Heavy rain showers and gusty winds from the storm will affect Puerto Rico Tuesday morning through Wednesday afternoon. This activity will spread to the Dominican Republic Tuesday afternoon through Thursday morning. Assuming dry air and an encounter with Hispaniola's high mountains do not destroy Gaston, heavy rain from the storm should move over Haiti, eastern Cuba, and Jamaica Wednesday night and Thursday morning. The models don't give much support for Gaston surviving past Wednesday. The ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, Canadian, and HWRF models all dissipate Gaston. However, two models--the GFDL and UKMET--predict that Gaston will survive the dry air and an encounter with Hispaniola, and pass far enough south of the island to find a favorable environment in the Central Caribbean for development on Wednesday. Wind shear will be low, water temperatures will be hot, and the atmosphere will be plenty moist. Gaston could intensify into a hurricane in the Western Caribbean by the end of the week, as predicted by the latest run of the GFDL model.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The models are fairly unanimous in predicting development late this week of a tropical wave expected to emerge from the coast of Africa on Tuesday or Wednesday. The next storm will be called Igor.
Next post
I'll have an update in the morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Yeah, just because winds were based on estimation, and Hermine popped up sure fast!
and sadly despite that, the hurricane almost broke through the levees , remember the water was overflowing a bit during the highest surge.. and they barely got CAT 1 winds, and a CAT 2 surge.
Based on seeing that I don't think New Orleans is ready for a direct hit from a MAJOR HURRICANE..
Given the large gaps in the updates on wind gusts out of Brownsville, I will agree in saying that it's quite likely there were 75+ gusts, whether or not they were reported. Tiny windfields don't leave a lot of time to waste in gathering reports.
well said! Now lets all get serious!
We had surge from Gustav over here in Pensacola. I drove to Mobile as he was passing to the south, and they had a substantial amount of water rise as well. Some of the on-ramps had to be shut down, and parts of downtown were seeing flooding.
Link
09/06/2010 1131 PM
Brownsville, Cameron County.
Tropical storm, reported by Emergency Mngr.
Numerous trees and signs blown down across city of
Brownsville. Port of Brownsville is completely without
power. Utb Campus has lost main power.
check him out!
link
Yes, they did have Levee damage, it was scary and one of my friends from Entergy stayed in the area for weeks. I certainly didn't mean to diminish the damage from Gustav, just trying to correct the track; Central LA, around Baton Rouge had tremendous damage as well.
I'm not trying to argue with anyone here. But in 2004, my old '70's single wide in the forest took cane force winds and gusts from Frances, Jean, and Charley. No damage. We were lucky. But's it's not an experience I want to have again.
Fortunately, I'm not in that trailer anymore, but I think with the wrong gust smacking the wrong corner or a weak spot, or a flying branch or piece of debris... almost any home can be damaged when winds get that high, no matter which code they are built to.
Whether someone is a teen or not, if they act like one that it sure appears that way to me, also I certainly am not making personal attacks, I am tired of people acting like 8 year olds, and being rude in a weather blog as if there is something to prove.
lets grow up people.
09/05/2010 1030 PM
Jamaica Beach, Galveston County.
Rip currents, reported by Emergency Mngr.
*** 1 fatal *** a 44 year Old Woman drowned because of
rip currents
Still has 'Igor'(?) doin' a 'Danielle'.
It is most likely because you were sheltered in the woods, also, sometimes hurricanes can flatten some buildings, while sparing others right next door, that's just the nature of storm damage.
Other then that, there is no such thing with luck, there is either science, or there's just God of the Universe having mercy.
Hi Jedkins...I appreciate many of your points and respect your opinion/knowledge. That being said, TS Hermine most certainly did not continue to intensify after it crossed the shoreline. If you review the radar loops, you will see that the eye-like feature began to fill in immediately after it came ashore and the radial velocities from the WSR 88D scan had decreased.
It is not unusual for the convection around the eyewall to develop colder cloud tops after landfall occurred-but that doesn't translate into a deepening storm.
It is also important to note the disparity between the MSW and the peak 3 second gusts over land as well. In the case of the Brownsville, TX observation being discussed...it was a 44 mph sustained wind with a gust to 69 mph. That is basically a 6 to 1 ratio between the two when most are 3 to 1 over marine exposure. Consequently, it is a mistake to make assumptions of the MSW 1 minute wind speed based upon a 3 second gust measurement.
In short, there is no data available to support Hermine having come ashore as anything greater than a 65 mph strong TS. That being said, it is still a very significant storm that should be taken seriously by those who are being affected by it. It is most certainly conceivable that some areas have experienced HF wind gusts and that can and does cause damage.
Obviously that doesn't mean there wasn't stronger stuff in other areas... just what I personally observed. Either way - power is out and overall the wind here was worse than Alex.
missed 2008 in the C/P to the post, but you are right it wasn't included, but it doesn't change the about HAARP, funny you bring up Gustav, he didn't make the NHC list...Link
Yeah exactly!
Based on the massive power outages being reported, I bet post term reports will find pretty impressive winds recorded. Damage reports currently are reflecting that comparable to a strong T.S. to near minimal hurricane force, at least wind gusts anyway. The NHC would have known if Hermine somehow actually packed hurricane force winds. But I bet it is producing hurricane force gusts.
Looks like a ring-neck and a black racer...but hard to tell from the pic. BTW I believe you are the only one being rude.
no problem!
I actually have to take a year off, couldnt afford to go this year :(
bummer, but I work full time pretty much right now instead
the esat side is going to slam in..
I agree actually, I don't think Hermine actually grew stronger over land, it just appears that way, which was pretty exciting to me. Also, I believe the NHC is right, just based on my experience chasing a few tropical cyclones, and knowledge about weather, convection that strong could still support hurricane force gusts in Brownsiville, and I bet many people didn't expect it, even though the NHC had it in the forecast. Just because people were busy having fun on labor day, not checking the weather, and Hermine certainly didn't appear like it would be threatening this AM
Oh no you didn't!
Bless you, Jedkins. Not everyone sees it your way. Nor should they have to. 'Either Science or God'is not a dictate that I care to be limited to. The Bard said it best...
"O day and night, but this is wondrous strange!...
And therefore as a stranger give it welcome.
There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy."
THANK YOU MY FRIEND!
Absolutely. Afterall, it's about safety foremost - not classification. Hermine developed quickly and came ashore during intensification. It will be interesting to see if there is any post analysis that might discern Hermine accomplished Cat 1 status, but I've my doubts. Landmass does usually weaken a system quickly after coming ashore. Status or not, Hermine is still a dangerous system with damaging winds and flooding potential. Hopefully, any in its path received due warning and made last-minute safety precautions.
Very true! Thanks. I was watching the info on WU for my area while we still had power, but that didn't last long! Not during any of them...
You've got to be kidding me! Just when you think Insurance companies can't sink lower.
Well I put science and God because if you don't believe in God, you must agree at least that science around you governs things.
must you? :)
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