Intensifying Hermine closes in on the Texas/Mexico coast
Steadily intensifying Tropical Storm Hermine is closing in on the coast near the Texas/Mexico border, and should move ashore late tonight. Hermine became a tropical depression at 11pm last night, and could become a minimal hurricane by 11 pm tonight. Hermine's rate of intensification from nothing to a strong tropical storm is one of the fastest on record. It turns out that the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche, where Hermine formed, is prone to these sort of rapidly intensifying tropical storms. The curvature and topography of the land help induce a counter-clockwise spin to the air over the region, which helps get tropical storms spinning up unusually quickly. Helping the spin-up process are the very warm 30°C waters, low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and moist atmosphere. Hermine promises to be a very wet storm, and latest long range radar out of Brownsville, Texas shows a large area of heavy rain has been drenching southern Texas and northern Mexico all afternoon, with radar estimated rainfall amounts exceeding two inches in a few areas along the coast. Radar loops show that an eyewall is attempting to form, but a region of dry air from over land spiraled into Hermine's core between 4 - 5pm EDT, disrupting eyewall formation. However, it now appears that Hermine has closed off its eye from this dry air, which should aid in intensification. Satellite imagery shows Hermine has vigorous thunderstorms with very cold tops, and improving low-level spiral banding.
Forecast for Hermine
Hermine doesn't have much time over water before it comes ashore, which is a good thing. The storm is steadily organizing, and has a shot at reaching hurricane strength before the center moves ashore late tonight, near midnight. Heavy rain will be the main threat from Hermine, though isolated tornadoes may also cause damage, particularly over South Texas. Hermine is expected to accelerate through Central Texas Tuesday and Wednesday, and the storm's rains will help alleviate moderate to severe drought conditions affecting Central Texas.
Figure 1. Late afternoon radar image of Tropical Storm Hermine. Note the band of dry air spiraling into the core of the storm from the north.
Gaston continues to suffer from dry air
An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft spent the afternoon in Gaston's remains, and found a weak 1012 mb center of low pressure with only a limited region of westerly winds on the south side of the center of circulation. Top surface winds uncontaminated by heavy rain seen by their SFMR instrument were in the 30 - 35 mph range. The airplane found plenty of dry air in the storm's environment, and there are not enough heavy thunderstorms in ex-Gaston's circulation for it to qualify as a tropical depression. The remains of Gaston are now approaching the northern Lesser Antilles, and residents can expect a few heavy rain showers and wind gusts up to 40 mph beginning early this evening and continuing into the night. Latest radar out of Martinique doesn't show much in the way of heavy rain, and satellite imagery confirms that the thunderstorm activity associated with Gaston's remains is quite sparse. A large amount of dry air surrounds Gaston's remains on all sides, as seen on water vapor satellite loops.
Figure 2. Afternoon satellite image of the remains of Gaston, approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.
Forecast for Gaston
There is little change to the forecast for Gaston's remains. Dry air will continue to be the major impediment to development, and the system is unlikely to become a tropical depression today. However, wind shear, which is currently a moderate 10 knots, is forecast by the latest SHIPS model run to fall very low, 0 - 5 knots, tonight through Wednesday. With almost no wind shear affecting it, Gaston will a better chance of keeping the moisture from its heavy thunderstorms near its core on Tuesday. This will insulate the storm from the dry air surrounding it. The atmosphere is also moister in the eastern Caribbean, further increasing the chances of development. I believe it is probable Gaston will become a tropical depression again on Tuesday. NHC is currently giving Gaston a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday, which is a reasonable forecast.
Heavy rain showers and gusty winds from the storm will affect Puerto Rico Tuesday morning through Wednesday afternoon. This activity will spread to the Dominican Republic Tuesday afternoon through Thursday morning. Assuming dry air and an encounter with Hispaniola's high mountains do not destroy Gaston, heavy rain from the storm should move over Haiti, eastern Cuba, and Jamaica Wednesday night and Thursday morning. The models don't give much support for Gaston surviving past Wednesday. The ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, Canadian, and HWRF models all dissipate Gaston. However, two models--the GFDL and UKMET--predict that Gaston will survive the dry air and an encounter with Hispaniola, and pass far enough south of the island to find a favorable environment in the Central Caribbean for development on Wednesday. Wind shear will be low, water temperatures will be hot, and the atmosphere will be plenty moist. Gaston could intensify into a hurricane in the Western Caribbean by the end of the week, as predicted by the latest run of the GFDL model.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The models are fairly unanimous in predicting development late this week of a tropical wave expected to emerge from the coast of Africa on Tuesday or Wednesday. The next storm will be called Igor.
Next post
I'll have an update in the morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Isn't that good news? From what i have heard (learned) on here in my brief time, that would tend to make it recurve sooner if it is stronger earlier?
is your weather cooling down already?
or just a cool 'snap'?
Very fair skies here in Northwest florida!! I would mention how dry it is...but since I live 45 miles from the Coast of the boiling GOMEX I DON'T NEED ANY RAIN!!!
True.....
I remember Ernesto years ago that came up through the everglades....... and held or even gained a little strength!
Do we call that a "bloblet"?...
I don't think I can tolerate another GASSSSSS-STONE!!!
Not nessesarily...
I have learned to be patient, persistent but not to the point of annoying. lol We have had a couple of gusty showers here, but nothing major, we need the rain so this is good, hopefully it will stay somewhat docile.
Dont mention "rain" to Orca....
he has some sort of amazing powers....
Scary!
heheheheh
Yup...20-14 in the 3rd quarter.
lol.
go a little east, and you see the remnant 99L, erupting with convection, with a spin at the surface
great....now i am confused all over again. lol i guess it is back to the books for me!
Gassed off..
Gassed on...
I think God is playing with a new infomercial toy.
Those things quit working pretty quickly.
Hopefully it gets stuck in the off position.
you stink, man its comming down in sheets here
Gaston hardly moving!!??
Weirdness rules.......
Corpus.....about 8 miles from the GOM
ty ... I think I saw an Alligator in my front yard... wait someone's knocking...... alligator?
ty ... I think I saw an Alligator in my front yard... wait someone's knocking...... alligator?
but any rain is great, hopefully it rains all day tomorrow
Er, No, Sorry!
Was kind of busy today and, well, um, I forgot!
Nice idea to cool the atmosphere though.
You may have hit on the idea, to save the World.
Together, we could create an Ice Age next week!
ONWARD>>>>>>>>>
Link
I worked down there cleaning up a bit after WILMA...and all I remember were those huge A$$ Mosquitoes that chewed through my screen windows and broke into the refrigerator and eat up all the Hot Dogs!!! The rain can not be helping your mosquito population!!
lol trauma you're awesome dude, I always like reading your post..... Donuts please?
The dry air in the Atl. is the one thing that has prevented the explosion we expected for 2010. So far.
I wonder if it will change soon?
NO MORE DONUTS!!! THIS BLOG GOES CRAZY DURING THE NIGHT SHIFT ON SUGAR!!!
Yes. That wave is embedded in a lot of moisture. The most this season for an African wave.
Should be getting pretty close to you man!!
Happy Anniversary, here's wishing many more happy years together !
I believe this is due in part to the JMO cycle of the last few weeks. I remember from Dr. Masters' post that it is forecast to end about now, although these forecasts are not always reliable.
Thank You very much.....Can not watch it at work!!
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