Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

This Gaston guy is really playing with us...
As to its relationship with Puerto Rico, it reminds me of Jeanne. Jeanne didn't develop until she was over the Lesser Antilles, right about to come in to the Caribbean. Back then she went in two days from a TD to a 70mph Tropical Storm, really catching us off guard in Puerto Rico.
Keeping in mind that this year the TCHP is extremely high, off the charts for that matter, it would be irresponsible for anyone to write ex/re-Gaston off.
Storm, any thoughts?

Quoting Relix:
Hey StormW! I know you don't work on Sundays but I would really like your quick take on ex-Gaston. The track shouldn't be too hard. It's aiming at the NE islands, south or north, yet the intensity puzzles me. It's past 50W, now it has the break to form into something. The circulation is tight. What can we expect from strength?

If you go back a few pages in the blog and start reading you will find StormW's take on Gaston and More.

Quoting StormW:
I'll tell ya...if ignorance is bliss...then Dr. Masters blog is in ecstasy

Classic...

Quoting cchsweatherman:
Reflecting back on Hurricane Earl, I must admit that I was definitely impressed by the computer model performance and with the NHC forecasting with this storm. The NHC and computer models were pretty accurate on forecasting when the turn would take place. It seems as we progress in time and technology, track forecasts are becoming much improved. Now all that remains is to try and understand the conditions for intensifying and weakening better so that forecasters can better forecast changes in intensity.

I'm not so sure about that. Early model runs had Earl recurving near Bermuda, whereas it really recurved just off the US East Coast, a difference of about 610 miles.

Quoting fldude99:
Invest 90L is in the same place Opal began in '95..made a beeline for FL panhandle

That was definitely under different conditions. A powerful cold front swung down and turned the storm. The discussions now suggest this will probably a Northern Mexico thing. It is too early in the seasons for fronts to comedown and swing these storms to the NE. So we in the Panhandle should be OK barring some crazy event. Texas should watch 90L closely though.

Quoting StormW:
I'll tell ya...if ignorance is bliss...then Dr. Masters blog is in ecstasy

rofl - thanks, I needed that this morning!

Quoting StormW:

Hello Dr Storm you think GASTONAAAA is heading our way here in PR Gastona she is a lady! have to be carefull!

0z Ukmet
120hrs

Even though 90L will head inland soon according to all the statistical and dynamical models, it always reminds one of Camille if one of these gulf storms was to sit and spin for a couple of days before moving north. Especially over the very warm waters!

Quoting Gearsts:
link?

To what? I have posted 6 different images.

The remnants of ex-Gaston are slowly trying to get better organized by developing some convection mainly to the west and south of the circulation (some convection trying to develop atop the circulation can be noted, let's see if it can continue the trend). It however will need more convective organization to get re-classified though.

Quoting cirrocumulus:
90L must be a depression by now!

.....nope, gonna have to wait another 12hrs,still at 60%,the eastern gom needs to be watched for some activity! !!

To add to the previous:

The top 25 ACE seasons since 1851:

Source

(NB: Seasons before 1960 are likely to be undervalued in ACE and storm numbers due to minimal technology. Even Landsea notes that: "With the artificial jump in the 2000s in the frequency of short-lived systems, a more realistic estimate of the long-term climatology may be closer to 13 tropical storms and hurricanes per year." Given the quoted figure of 10-6-2 for 1950 onwards, adding 2-3 storms to each season prior to the 1950s in particular would probably be closer to the actual figure).

2005: 248 (28-15-7 - inc. one Subtropical storm, 27-15-7 for ACE purposes)
1950: 243 (13-11-8)
1893: 231 (12-10-5)
1995: 227 (19-11-5)
2004: 224 (15-9-6)
1926: 222 (11-8-6)
1933: 213 (21-10-5)
1961: 205 (11-8-7)
1955: 199 (12-9-6)
1887: 182 (19-11-2)
---
1998: 182 (14-10-3)
1878: 181 (12-10-2)
1999: 177 (12-8-5)
2003: 175 (16-7-3)
1964: 170 (12-6-6)
1886: 166 (12-10-4)
1996: 166 (13-9-6)
1906: 163 (11-6-3)
1969: 158 (18-12-5)
1899: 150 (9-5-2)* Half of this is one storm alone.
---
1980: 147 (11-9-2)
1966: 145 (11-7-3)
1916: 144 (15-10-5)
2008: 144 (16-8-5)
1951: 137 (10-8-5)

Convection forming around Gaston's COC. Little by little.

Thanks Vero1, found StormW's take.

Quoting sammywammybamy:


Agreed?

Here is this Decent?

good track:)

Quoting Cotillion:
#2465

With ACE, 2010, largely due to Danielle and Earl, has got around 61. As mentioned in a post yesterday, Gaston would need to be a strong Cat 1 hurricane/minimal Cat 2 for a week or so to surpass 2006 (and 2002/07 which is lower). Let alone any help from 'friends'.

Whether it'll reach the giddy heights predicted, I'm not so sure. That would rely on one or two long trackers, with a strong storm or two in the Caribbean at least. Plausible, yes, but far from any certainty. The 25th highest ACE season was 1955 with 137. So, more than half off, but with the peak (cue the chart) to come.

Well, 1955's ACE was 199, making it the sixth strongest ACE season between 1950 and 2009.

We're a week away from the climatological peak of what promises to be a very back-loaded season. ACE went from under 10 to 60 in just 10 days (yes, mostly due to Danielle and Earl), meaning that such rapidly-increasing numbers are possible again...and especially once a couple of Cat 4s and Cat 5s start popping off in the Gulf and Caribbean. If we don't end 2010 with an ACE above 150, I'll be very surprised; 170+ seems about right to me.

Quoting kingzfan104:


you are easily the biggest florida wishcaster on here. everything goes right to you or in your direction in florida and those are the only questions you ask. dont deny it, just admit it. ill admit i love hurricanes and love getting hit by them. no big deal.

just stop trying to deny it and embrace it, because you are giving people who think you know what you are talking about a terribly wrong idea as to what this system will do.

,not even close,jeff941of orlando,ALWAYS says the tc is headed for fl's central east coast,lol

Quoting kingzfan104:


you are easily the biggest florida wishcaster on here. everything goes right to you or in your direction in florida and those are the only questions you ask. dont deny it, just admit it. ill admit i love hurricanes and love getting hit by them. no big deal.

just stop trying to deny it and embrace it, because you are giving people who think you know what you are talking about a terribly wrong idea as to what this system will do.

Sammywammybamy's not on my ignore list,but sometimes he can be out of iine.

Wow, pretty impressive pressure from the ATCF best track as of 12z for 90L.

AL, 90, 2010090512, , BEST, 0, 194N, 956W, 25, 1005, DB,

Ex-Gaston's pressure however continues to increase, and now the winds have decreased to 30mph.

AL, 09, 2010090512, , BEST, 0, 168N, 500W, 25, 1009, LO,

Storm, it gets real depressing when you realize ignorance is how most people make it through their lives. To be fair, most people aren't interested in meteorology or climatology (or most other science, mathematical theory, and technology) beyond the "Oooh! Shiny!" and "It's all about me and mine!" aspects. People showing any interest at all beyond that are actually above average. Most, by fate or free will, are not.

Quoting washingtonian115:
Sammywammybamy's not on my ignore list,but sometimes he can be out of iine.

He's definitely not one of the annoying ones or one of the JFV potentials.:0

Well looks like Gaston looking better today and to think someone here the other day here was sounding like he would go out with the FISH.

Quoting stillwaiting:
.....nope, gonna have to wait another 12hrs,still at 60%,the eastern gom needs to be watched for some activity! !!

I think it must be a depression now or in a couple of hours because it is a little over land off and on. It has plenty of firepower over the warm waters so it must be a depression with the 1005 millibar low.

Quoting Grecojdw:


He's definitely not one of the annoying ones or one of the JFV potentials.:0

For two years I've read the references to JFV, can someone explain?

Quoting Neapolitan:


Well, 1955's ACE was 199, making it the sixth strongest ACE season between 1950 and 2009.

We're a week away from the climatological peak of what promises to be a very back-loaded season. ACE went from under 10 to 60 in just 10 days (yes, mostly due to Danielle and Earl), meaning that such rapidly-increasing numbers are possible again...and especially once a couple of Cat 4s and Cat 5s start popping off in the Gulf and Caribbean. If we don't end 2010 with an ACE above 150, I'll be very surprised; 170+ seems about right to me.

You're correct regarding 1955, I meant 1951. 1955 is way higher (see the above list, now corrected).

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Wow, pretty impressive pressure from the ATCF best track as of 12z for 90L.

AL, 90, 2010090512, , BEST, 0, 194N, 956W, 25, 1005, DB,

Ex-Gaston's pressure however continues to increase, and now the winds have decreased to 30mph.

AL, 09, 2010090512, , BEST, 0, 168N, 500W, 25, 1009, LO,

I'm impressed that the pressures are actually that low.Could see a possible depression late tonight or tomarrow.

Quoting aislinnpaps:


For two years I've read the references to JFV, can someone explain?

He's fodder for bored bloggers who have nothing to do when things are quiet.

Quoting sammywammybamy:

OK, thats not even fair...I have not even finished updating the darn things and your posting them :(

Quoting aislinnpaps:


For two years I've read the references to JFV, can someone explain?

...you really wanna know????,WU's most infamous troll

Quoting sammywammybamy:


Lol Ive Been Here Since 2006.

Anyway Why is the Blog So Obbsesed with JFV?

I Dont Understand? He Lied about Having a Girlfriend.

If you have enter encountered him in chat, you will understand why. I didn't believe it my self until I tried to do the real time thing in the chat area. He is in there some how some way constantly and ruins all the discussion about hurricane related items. After the last barrage of insults from him I decided not to ever go in there again.

Quoting StormW:


I know you're not talking of Gaston. Oh...and the forecast for more west type tracks isn't wrong. Obviously, you don't know how to read forecast patterns.

Oh...POOF!!!

Sometimes this site reminds me of the Bewitched TV series.

We're so elegant in our nose twitching.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Wow, pretty impressive pressure from the ATCF best track as of 12z for 90L.

AL, 90, 2010090512, , BEST, 0, 194N, 956W, 25, 1005, DB,

Ex-Gaston's pressure however continues to increase, and now the winds have decreased to 30mph.

AL, 09, 2010090512, , BEST, 0, 168N, 500W, 25, 1009, LO,

It is wobbly to say the least.

Quoting sammywammybamy:


Lol Ive Been Here Since 2006.

Anyway Why is the Blog So Obbsesed with JFV?

I Dont Understand? He Lied about Having a Girlfriend.

Let's not even go their.Please let's get back to weather.The blog is more peaceful without his name mentioned.and I mean it.....

Quoting sammywammybamy:


Sorry Orca Lol. It Okay Ill Take it Down For You =)

Its ok, the rest are almost done

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Wow, pretty impressive pressure from the ATCF best track as of 12z for 90L.

AL, 90, 2010090512, , BEST, 0, 194N, 956W, 25, 1005, DB,

Ex-Gaston's pressure however continues to increase, and now the winds have decreased to 30mph.

AL, 09, 2010090512, , BEST, 0, 168N, 500W, 25, 1009, LO,

True...but in all fairness to ex-Gaston, that was some hours ago, and since then he's started to perk up rather quickly, and he's small enough that changes up or down are likely to be quickly reflected in the numbers...

Quoting Neapolitan:


True...but in all fairness to ex-Gaston, that was some hours ago, and since then he's started to perk up rather quickly, and he's small enough that changes up or down are likely to be quickly reflected in the numbers...

I was wondering if those were old figures. Are there any new ones out yet?

Quoting stillwaiting:
...you really wanna know????,WU's most infamous troll

Yeah, kinda, so I can understand all the references. You can email me so as not to take it up on the blog?