Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Earl hits Nova Scotia but spares New England; Gaston still a threat

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:30 PM GMT en Septiembre 04, 2010

Tropical Storm Earl roared ashore over western Nova Scotia late this morning, bringing heavy rain and tropical storm force winds to much of the province. The capital of Halifax recorded sustained winds of 51 mph, gusting to 75 mph at 12:48pm AST this afternoon, and the power is out to tens of thousands of residents in Nova Scotia. Winds were stronger at McNabs Island, in Halifax Harbor, where sustained winds of 64 mph, gusting to 76 mph, occurred at noon AST.

Earl's center passed about 100 miles southeast of Nantucket, Massachusetts, at 1am EDT this morning, and the winds on the weak left side of the storm never reached sustained tropical storm strength (39 mph) at any New England land station. The peak wind gust in Massachusetts may have been the 58 mph gust recorded on Cape Cod 5 miles south-southeast of Barnstable early this morning. Earl did bring some very high waves to New England; waves at the buoy 60 miles southeast of Nantucket peaked at 27 feet early this morning. Heavy rain from Earl--over five inches in some locations--caused localized flooding and road closures on Cape Cod and on Marthas Vineyard.

Figure 1. Hurricane Earl as seen from the International Space Station on Thursday, September 2, 2010. Image credit: NASA astronaut Douglas Wheelock.

Figure 2. Radar estimated rainfall from Earl from the Cape Cod radar.

Gaston a threat to develop
Recent satellite imagery shows that Gaston's remains have developed a well-organized surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air surrounds Gaston's remains on all sides, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. This dry air will continue to be a major impediment to development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next four days, then fall to the low range. The winds creating the shear are coming from the east, where a tongue of dry air has intruded. These easterly winds will be able to drive the dry air into Gaston's core, disrupting it, unless the storm can find a moister environment. It is also possible that Gaston may be able to protect its core by wrapping moisture around to its east side; recent visible satellite imagery shows a band of moisture wrapping around along Gaston's south side. If this process is successful, Gaston may have a good chance of becoming a tropical depression on Sunday. I suspect there is too much dry air in Gaston's environment for Gaston to develop into a tropical depression today. The atmosphere is moister near the Lesser Antilles Islands, and Gaston has a better chance of developing on Monday when it finds this moister environment. NHC is giving Gaston a 70% chance of regenerating into a tropical depression by Monday. The models are in fairly good agreement bringing Gaston though the central or northern Lesser Antilles Islands on Tuesday. The storm should then slow down and head more to the west-northwest on Wednesday and Thursday, in response to a large trough of low pressure expected to move off the U.S. East Coast. Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic might be at risk of a strike by a reborn Tropical Storm Gaston by Thursday, if the storm follows a more southerly track over the next few days.

Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Gaston's remains.

Gulf of Mexico disturbance
A concentrated area of heavy thunderstorms has developed over the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche. This disturbance is under a low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and has a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday, according to NHC. The disturbance is headed northwest at 5 - 10 mph, but could turn more to the north-northwest and bring heavy rains to the Texas/Mexico border region on Monday, according to the latest run of the GFS model.

99L
A tropical wave (99L) near the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa is moving northwestward at about 10 mph. The wave has a bit of spin to it, but not much heavy thunderstorm activity. This system is under moderate wind shear, but is headed towards a region of high wind shear northwest of the Cape Verdes Islands. This shear will very likely destroy the disturbance by Tuesday. NHC is giving 99L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday afternoon.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS and ECMWF models are predicting development 3 - 6 days from now of a tropical wave that hasn't emerged from the coast of Africa yet.

Next post
I'll have an update by 1pm Sunday afternoon.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Earl Waves (Murko)

Waves from Eleuthera, Bahamas, as Earl passed by as a cat 4 storm. The cliffs are about 30ft high.

Earl The Pearl (teach50)

Went down to Jones Beach again today. The beach was taken over by the power of the waves during high tide.

Hurricane Earl Surf@ Newport RI # 4 (RIWXPhoto)

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1752. gordydunnot 4:04 AM GMT en Septiembre 05, 2010
Well all that Gaston has to do is hope that ULl keeps moving Sw and out of the way and then he will have a chance.Just a heads up most trouble makers only rear their head when they get past 55w in my memory only and I am speaking for SE Fl. in case anybody was wondering. Member Since: Agosto 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3044

1754. Grothar 4:04 AM GMT en Septiembre 05, 2010
Quoting aislinnpaps: I speak enough Spanish to get by and used to speak German pretty well, but haven't used it in a while. I was there last year and the year before, understood more than I could remember how to say. Am going back in early June again, though may be the last time. If you would like, you can write to me on WU in German and you could practice. Be surprised how much comes back. Member Since: Julio 17, 2009 Posts: 58 Comments: 19680

1755. MrstormX 4:04 AM GMT en Septiembre 05, 2010
Quoting pottery: which seas?? Lol poor wording... The Atlantic in general looks turbulent. Haven't had a chance to look at any shear maps but based on satellite imagery im guessing its high across the basin. Member Since: Mayo 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4312

1756. caneswatch 4:04 AM GMT en Septiembre 05, 2010
Quoting Grothar: oui Que pasa? Member Since: Octubre 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4479

1757. Hurricanes101 4:05 AM GMT en Septiembre 05, 2010
Quoting btwntx08: two closed isobars with the boc low at 60 hrs its also very broad and elongated that is not a TD Member Since: Marzo 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6930

1759. Grothar 4:06 AM GMT en Septiembre 05, 2010
Quoting AtHomeInTX: Hey! I was an English major one semester! I thought I was a criminal justice major? But no I was told the English department had my "FOLDER" therefore I was an English major. Lol. Btw hi Grothar. I changed my name from Homelesswanderer. If you remember me. :) Now you tell me. I could have been insulting you and I wouldn't have known it was one of my favorite bloggers. LOL Why the name change? Witness Protection Program? What did you do now? Member Since: Julio 17, 2009 Posts: 58 Comments: 19680

1761. xcool 4:06 AM GMT en Septiembre 05, 2010
Member Since: Septiembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15526

1762. PSLFLCaneVet 4:06 AM GMT en Septiembre 05, 2010
Quoting Grothar: No, really interested. I was educated mostly in Germany and Norway and Switzerland.Ok, sorry if I missed the ball. The impression doesn't go away though. language does intrigue me. Perhaps I was trying too hard to be funny. I meant to be respectful. Member Since: Julio 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 12406

1763. h0db 4:06 AM GMT en Septiembre 05, 2010
Quoting RickWPB: Gaston may not be dead yet, but it sure looks like it's losing it's circulation. In the last 3 or 4 frames looks like an open wave. IR Floater Can one of you guys go poke Gaston with a stick or something? This is creeping me out, like watching "Carrie." Member Since: Septiembre 5, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 88

1764. 954FtLCane 4:06 AM GMT en Septiembre 05, 2010
My call of 10-4-2 may not be off..... I got a feeling though it'll prob be 13-7-3 now Member Since: Septiembre 30, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1465

1765. Hurricanes101 4:06 AM GMT en Septiembre 05, 2010
and with that I cue the "season is a bust" people, who conveniently were on vacation these past 2 weeks!! Member Since: Marzo 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6930

1766. will40 4:06 AM GMT en Septiembre 05, 2010
only double i see is off africa Member Since: Septiembre 19, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 3462

1767. Hurricanes101 4:07 AM GMT en Septiembre 05, 2010
Quoting will40: only double i see is off africa agreed, its funny how the models have dropped Gaston all of a sudden after redeveloping it for like 4 days Member Since: Marzo 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6930

1769. tornadodude 4:07 AM GMT en Septiembre 05, 2010
evening all Member Since: Junio 28, 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 7816

1770. pottery 4:08 AM GMT en Septiembre 05, 2010
Quoting PcolaDan: Very Good! Member Since: Octubre 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20866

1771. will40 4:08 AM GMT en Septiembre 05, 2010
just saw it on 78 Member Since: Septiembre 19, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 3462

1772. kimoskee 4:09 AM GMT en Septiembre 05, 2010
Quoting h0db: Can one of you guys go poke Gaston with a stick or something? This is creeping me out, like watching "Carrie." Do you know how long ago I asked for them to plug out of the life support? But nobody listened. Maybe you'll have better luck. Member Since: Agosto 17, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 670

1773. gordydunnot 4:09 AM GMT en Septiembre 05, 2010
PcolaDan +1 Member Since: Agosto 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3044

1774. jurakantaino 4:09 AM GMT en Septiembre 05, 2010
Quoting caneswatch: Se habla espanol. Hablo español, farlo portuguese, parlo italiano fluently, and I also speak English, a little bit of French and German. Member Since: Julio 31, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 730

1775. Hurricanes101 4:09 AM GMT en Septiembre 05, 2010
Quoting will40: just saw it on 78 the wave SW of former 99L looks good and it has model support, also it is far south Member Since: Marzo 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6930

1776. aislinnpaps 4:10 AM GMT en Septiembre 05, 2010
Quoting Grothar: If you would like, you can write to me on WU in German and you could practice. Be surprised how much comes back. I would love to, but never learned how to write in German! I moved there and learned to speak it by imersion, no one spoke English. Member Since: Agosto 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2542

1777. xcool 4:10 AM GMT en Septiembre 05, 2010
btwntx08 yeah Member Since: Septiembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15526

1778. Grothar 4:10 AM GMT en Septiembre 05, 2010
Quoting KanKunKid: I can get by with French and Spanish and Portuguese, but German Hard ! Now I'm learning Russian! its even harder! I was gonna try Chinese but lost the motivation. I never did learn "Jive". Impressive. German is hard. Don't feel badly, most of the Germans don't speak it properly anyway. I understand the Northern Dialects, but lost on the Southern ones. Member Since: Julio 17, 2009 Posts: 58 Comments: 19680

1779. JLPR2 4:10 AM GMT en Septiembre 05, 2010
Quoting h0db: Can one of you guys go poke Gaston with a stick or something? This is creeping me out, like watching "Carrie." That would be a creepy ending. XD Member Since: Septiembre 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7533

1781. will40 4:11 AM GMT en Septiembre 05, 2010
1729. btwntx08 11:58 PM EDT on September 04, 2010 actually the td is still there in the boc will Member Since: Septiembre 19, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 3462

1782. xcool 4:11 AM GMT en Septiembre 05, 2010
will40 lol he bust Member Since: Septiembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15526

1783. wunderkidcayman 4:11 AM GMT en Septiembre 05, 2010
I can see Gastons COC now on the AVN loop but elongated east to west at 16.7N 48.4W Member Since: Junio 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 5997

1784. JLPR2 4:12 AM GMT en Septiembre 05, 2010
Quoting jurakantaino: Hablo español, farlo portuguese, parlo italiano fluently, and I also speak English, a little bit of French and German. I'll keep in mind the parlo italiano, going to take that class on my 4th year or earlier. XD Member Since: Septiembre 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7533

1785. xcool 4:12 AM GMT en Septiembre 05, 2010
Member Since: Septiembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15526

1787. cirrocumulus 4:12 AM GMT en Septiembre 05, 2010
We're entering peak week and it looks like Gaston will soon develop. Also, the GFS is showing another fish storm developing in about five days.

1788. xcool 4:13 AM GMT en Septiembre 05, 2010
lmao lmao Member Since: Septiembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15526

1789. AtHomeInTX 4:13 AM GMT en Septiembre 05, 2010
Quoting Grothar: Now you tell me. I could have been insulting you and I wouldn't have known it was one of my favorite bloggers. LOL Why the name change? Witness Protection Program? What did you do now? Lol. Sort of. Of all things I had a female stalker. And not just on this site. My emails were opened before I got to them. A lot of different accounts were hacked. It had to be a joke by someone I know. But I am so technologically impaired I'll never know how they did it. At least I hope it was a joke. Yikes! Lol. Member Since: Agosto 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3999

1790. will40 4:13 AM GMT en Septiembre 05, 2010
Quoting xcool: will40 lol he bust ah ha Member Since: Septiembre 19, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 3462

1791. xcool 4:13 AM GMT en Septiembre 05, 2010
Member Since: Septiembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15526

1792. JLPR2 4:13 AM GMT en Septiembre 05, 2010
Quoting KanKunKid: While waiting for Gaston to develop haha! wow! XD Member Since: Septiembre 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7533

1793. Hurricanes101 4:14 AM GMT en Septiembre 05, 2010
Quoting xcool: GFS is basically killing everything, Ike would love this run lol Member Since: Marzo 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6930

1794. xcool 4:14 AM GMT en Septiembre 05, 2010
will40 .poor rob. Member Since: Septiembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15526

1795. will40 4:14 AM GMT en Septiembre 05, 2010
its just one run of one model tho Member Since: Septiembre 19, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 3462

1796. aislinnpaps 4:14 AM GMT en Septiembre 05, 2010
Quoting Grothar: Impressive. German is hard. Don't feel badly, most of the Germans don't speak it properly anyway. I understand the Northern Dialects, but lost on the Southern ones. I learned Bavarain, so different than what they speak over by Landstuhl! There it has more of a French pronunciation than Bavarian, 'ech' instead if 'ick' for example Member Since: Agosto 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2542

1797. xcool 4:14 AM GMT en Septiembre 05, 2010
Hurricanes101 haha Member Since: Septiembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15526

1798. xcool 4:15 AM GMT en Septiembre 05, 2010
Member Since: Septiembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15526

1799. Grothar 4:15 AM GMT en Septiembre 05, 2010
Seems to be moving away from the dry air, but still nothing firing up. I give it one more day. Member Since: Julio 17, 2009 Posts: 58 Comments: 19680

1800. will40 4:15 AM GMT en Septiembre 05, 2010
Quoting Hurricanes101: GFS is basically killing everything, Ike would love this run lol yea he lurking and laffin lol Member Since: Septiembre 19, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 3462

1801. AtHomeInTX 4:16 AM GMT en Septiembre 05, 2010
Quoting KanKunKid: While waiting for Gaston to develop Member Since: Agosto 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3999

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