Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Earl hits Nova Scotia but spares New England; Gaston still a threat

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:30 PM GMT en Septiembre 04, 2010

Tropical Storm Earl roared ashore over western Nova Scotia late this morning, bringing heavy rain and tropical storm force winds to much of the province. The capital of Halifax recorded sustained winds of 51 mph, gusting to 75 mph at 12:48pm AST this afternoon, and the power is out to tens of thousands of residents in Nova Scotia. Winds were stronger at McNabs Island, in Halifax Harbor, where sustained winds of 64 mph, gusting to 76 mph, occurred at noon AST.

Earl's center passed about 100 miles southeast of Nantucket, Massachusetts, at 1am EDT this morning, and the winds on the weak left side of the storm never reached sustained tropical storm strength (39 mph) at any New England land station. The peak wind gust in Massachusetts may have been the 58 mph gust recorded on Cape Cod 5 miles south-southeast of Barnstable early this morning. Earl did bring some very high waves to New England; waves at the buoy 60 miles southeast of Nantucket peaked at 27 feet early this morning. Heavy rain from Earl--over five inches in some locations--caused localized flooding and road closures on Cape Cod and on Marthas Vineyard.

Figure 1. Hurricane Earl as seen from the International Space Station on Thursday, September 2, 2010. Image credit: NASA astronaut Douglas Wheelock.

Figure 2. Radar estimated rainfall from Earl from the Cape Cod radar.

Gaston a threat to develop
Recent satellite imagery shows that Gaston's remains have developed a well-organized surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air surrounds Gaston's remains on all sides, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. This dry air will continue to be a major impediment to development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next four days, then fall to the low range. The winds creating the shear are coming from the east, where a tongue of dry air has intruded. These easterly winds will be able to drive the dry air into Gaston's core, disrupting it, unless the storm can find a moister environment. It is also possible that Gaston may be able to protect its core by wrapping moisture around to its east side; recent visible satellite imagery shows a band of moisture wrapping around along Gaston's south side. If this process is successful, Gaston may have a good chance of becoming a tropical depression on Sunday. I suspect there is too much dry air in Gaston's environment for Gaston to develop into a tropical depression today. The atmosphere is moister near the Lesser Antilles Islands, and Gaston has a better chance of developing on Monday when it finds this moister environment. NHC is giving Gaston a 70% chance of regenerating into a tropical depression by Monday. The models are in fairly good agreement bringing Gaston though the central or northern Lesser Antilles Islands on Tuesday. The storm should then slow down and head more to the west-northwest on Wednesday and Thursday, in response to a large trough of low pressure expected to move off the U.S. East Coast. Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic might be at risk of a strike by a reborn Tropical Storm Gaston by Thursday, if the storm follows a more southerly track over the next few days.

Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Gaston's remains.

Gulf of Mexico disturbance
A concentrated area of heavy thunderstorms has developed over the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche. This disturbance is under a low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and has a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday, according to NHC. The disturbance is headed northwest at 5 - 10 mph, but could turn more to the north-northwest and bring heavy rains to the Texas/Mexico border region on Monday, according to the latest run of the GFS model.

99L
A tropical wave (99L) near the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa is moving northwestward at about 10 mph. The wave has a bit of spin to it, but not much heavy thunderstorm activity. This system is under moderate wind shear, but is headed towards a region of high wind shear northwest of the Cape Verdes Islands. This shear will very likely destroy the disturbance by Tuesday. NHC is giving 99L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday afternoon.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS and ECMWF models are predicting development 3 - 6 days from now of a tropical wave that hasn't emerged from the coast of Africa yet.

Next post
I'll have an update by 1pm Sunday afternoon.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Earl Waves (Murko)

Waves from Eleuthera, Bahamas, as Earl passed by as a cat 4 storm. The cliffs are about 30ft high.

Earl The Pearl (teach50)

Went down to Jones Beach again today. The beach was taken over by the power of the waves during high tide.

Hurricane Earl Surf@ Newport RI # 4 (RIWXPhoto)

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1601. RuBRNded 3:26 AM GMT en Septiembre 05, 2010
Quoting DestinJeff: not necessary to ask what town. you said FL. Member Since: Julio 29, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 319

1602. pottery 3:27 AM GMT en Septiembre 05, 2010
Quoting KanKunKid: I agree that IS a problem. Send em over, I'll take care of it. I'll pick em up and bring them... Member Since: Octubre 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20703

1603. spathy 3:27 AM GMT en Septiembre 05, 2010
Ex Gaston could use a spork full of moisture. Wait a minute .... Am I on Swamps blog or Masters blog? Member Since: Junio 8, 2008 Posts: 65 Comments: 10474

1606. AtHomeInTX 3:27 AM GMT en Septiembre 05, 2010
Hey y'all. I just watched engineering hurricanes on science channel. If you get a chance to watch it you should. Especially if you're new to some of the terms such as hot towers, corriolis effect (SP?). What i found interesting was the tests they did with houses and how a house comes apart in a hurricane. They had a window covered with Miami Dade spec storm shutters, they looked metal. They shot a regular roofing tile at it at 45mph and it shattered the window behind it. Which of course is the beginning of the end of a house in a strong storm. And they said in Florida best estimate is 11% of homes have been engineered to withstand hurricane force winds. That all surprised me. Anyway, it is a very informative show. Even for me and I've been studying this stuff for 2 whole years. Lol. Link Member Since: Agosto 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3873

1607. PtownBryan 3:27 AM GMT en Septiembre 05, 2010
Quoting txraysfan: Another Texan here-how south of houston are you? Close to Port O'Connor here Hey Port O'Connor! Pearland here! Member Since: Julio 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 170

1609. caneswatch 3:28 AM GMT en Septiembre 05, 2010
Quoting KanKunKid: Must be lehigh Acres Nope, east coast. Around the same latitude though. Member Since: Octubre 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4473

1611. PtownBryan 3:29 AM GMT en Septiembre 05, 2010
Quoting TXnovice: Hi! I'm in Pearland. Hey TxNovice! I am in Pearland too! Member Since: Julio 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 170

1612. BrandiQ 3:29 AM GMT en Septiembre 05, 2010
Quoting KanKunKid: Must be lehigh Acres I was thinking Davie... but what do I know lol Member Since: Mayo 25, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 155

1613. canehater1 3:30 AM GMT en Septiembre 05, 2010
No concensus ther,lol... Member Since: Septiembre 8, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 675

1614. RTLSNK (Mod) 3:30 AM GMT en Septiembre 05, 2010
Quoting pottery: AhHa!, Snakeymon! Just the Chap I was hoping to run into. You are Entirely mistaken, about my small brain, you know. It is a Great Advantage. Especially when carrying on discourses with Crevisses and suchlike. (how DO you spell Crevisses? You know, like a small Crevasse??) Good to see you... I think the individuals you are referring to would be called "cretins". If I may be of help to you again please do not hesitate to call on me again. :) Member Since: Septiembre 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 15151

1615. pottery 3:30 AM GMT en Septiembre 05, 2010
Quoting hurristat: Ya, with the ark gone, I really didn't have a reason to return as my interest in hurricanes waned, but now that I'm more interested I HAVE RETURNED LIKE THE PRODIGAL SON. NOW GIVE ME MONEYS. :P (just kidding) It's good to be back -- how have you been doing? Surely the Ark will one day Return?? After all, I think it is being completely overhauled as we speak. There was always an issue with those inter-connecting doors. They couldnt open. That was very bad... Member Since: Octubre 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20703

1616. hurristat 3:31 AM GMT en Septiembre 05, 2010
Quoting jasoniscoolman2010x: goodbye So Earl is supposed to go two directions at once? whoa. Member Since: Octubre 15, 2008 Posts: 11 Comments: 2302

1620. txraysfan 3:33 AM GMT en Septiembre 05, 2010
Quoting AtHomeInTX: Hey y'all. I just watched engineering hurricanes on science channel. If you get a chance to watch it you should. Especially if you're new to some of the terms such as hot towers, corriolis effect (SP?). What i found interesting was the tests they did with houses and how a house comes apart in a hurricane. They had a window covered with Miami Dade spec storm shutters, they looked metal. They shot a regular roofing tile at it at 45mph and it shattered the window behind it. Which of course is the beginning of the end of a house in a strong storm. And they said in Florida best estimate is 11% of homes have been engineered to withstand hurricane force winds. That all surprised me. Anyway, it is a very informative show. Even for me and I've been studying this stuff for 2 whole years. Lol. Link Way back when we built our house, brick, we had the bricklayers put stainless steel bolts around our windows to be able to board up. This was before they had all the neat little clips and stuff they have now. Member Since: Julio 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2

1621. hurristat 3:33 AM GMT en Septiembre 05, 2010
Quoting pottery: Surely the Ark will one day Return?? After all, I think it is being completely overhauled as we speak. There was always an issue with those inter-connecting doors. They couldnt open. That was very bad... Let's hope it does.. Member Since: Octubre 15, 2008 Posts: 11 Comments: 2302

1623. RuBRNded 3:34 AM GMT en Septiembre 05, 2010
Quoting DestinJeff: Only the monkees could open them, as they were "pull" style. Monkeys, interconnecting doors, not goin there! Member Since: Julio 29, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 319

1624. BrandiQ 3:34 AM GMT en Septiembre 05, 2010
Quoting DestinJeff: and she's an ex? LMAO! Member Since: Mayo 25, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 155

1627. pottery 3:35 AM GMT en Septiembre 05, 2010
Quoting RTLSNK: I think the individuals you are referring to would be called "cretins". If I may be of help to you again please do not hesitate to call on me again. :) Cretins is good. I will certainly be in touch, should I need further clarification. I expect you will send your normal Invoice?. Member Since: Octubre 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20703

1630. RuBRNded 3:36 AM GMT en Septiembre 05, 2010
Quoting DestinJeff: and she's an ex? lol, yah, for dif reasons. Member Since: Julio 29, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 319

1631. caneswatch 3:36 AM GMT en Septiembre 05, 2010
Quoting KanKunKid: OK, nuff said. My ex is from Weston. I used to work the whole east coast. There are some pockets of rednecks all up and down the coast. Decent folks most of em. (pssst I drive a Ford F 350 Dually Diesel....what does that mean?) Yeah I know. I have redneck friends myself, but, I can't think of any other word to describe them lol Member Since: Octubre 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4473

1632. wunderkidcayman 3:36 AM GMT en Septiembre 05, 2010
00Z Member Since: Junio 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 5381

1633. PSLFLCaneVet 3:37 AM GMT en Septiembre 05, 2010
Quoting AtHomeInTX: Hey y'all. I just watched engineering hurricanes on science channel. If you get a chance to watch it you should. Especially if you're new to some of the terms such as hot towers, corriolis effect (SP?). What i found interesting was the tests they did with houses and how a house comes apart in a hurricane. They had a window covered with Miami Dade spec storm shutters, they looked metal. They shot a regular roofing tile at it at 45mph and it shattered the window behind it. Which of course is the beginning of the end of a house in a strong storm. And they said in Florida best estimate is 11% of homes have been engineered to withstand hurricane force winds. That all surprised me. Anyway, it is a very informative show. Even for me and I've been studying this stuff for 2 whole years. Lol. Link Agreed people should watch it, however the excessive hype should not be lost on those who do. Salesman have to sell to survive. Member Since: Julio 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 12405

1635. RTLSNK (Mod) 3:37 AM GMT en Septiembre 05, 2010
Quoting hurristat: Ya, with the ark gone, I really didn't have a reason to return as my interest in hurricanes waned, but now that I'm more interested I HAVE RETURNED LIKE THE PRODIGAL SON. NOW GIVE ME MONEYS. :P (just kidding) It's good to be back -- how have you been doing? Doing well, moved over to Orca's, keeping an eye on the GOM, have family from Tx to Fl. Member Since: Septiembre 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 15151

1638. pottery 3:38 AM GMT en Septiembre 05, 2010
Quoting DestinJeff: and she's an ex? AH-HAHAHAHAH (got to love this place) Member Since: Octubre 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20703

1639. JLPR2 3:38 AM GMT en Septiembre 05, 2010
Open? Nah! Member Since: Septiembre 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7487

1640. hurristat 3:38 AM GMT en Septiembre 05, 2010
Quoting RTLSNK: Doing well, moved over to Orca's, keeping an eye on the GOM, have family from Tx to Fl. I never really got used to Orca's -- he's a nice guy, but it was really awkward for me there. Member Since: Octubre 15, 2008 Posts: 11 Comments: 2302

1641. PSLFLCaneVet 3:39 AM GMT en Septiembre 05, 2010
Quoting DestinJeff: Some of my best friends are rednecks. ROFL Member Since: Julio 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 12405

1643. Grothar 3:39 AM GMT en Septiembre 05, 2010
Strange little blog tonight. I know my English is not always that good, but I have no idea what any of are talking about. Hope it makes sense to you. YO, Snake Member Since: Julio 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19491

1644. pottery 3:40 AM GMT en Septiembre 05, 2010
Quoting RuBRNded: Monkeys, interconnecting doors, not goin there! Good move. There were things going on, aboard that Ark, that are better left in the Annals of Whatever. Member Since: Octubre 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20703

1645. txraysfan 3:40 AM GMT en Septiembre 05, 2010
Quoting btwntx08: back Welcome back! Got some homemade cinnamon rolls for dessert Member Since: Julio 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2

1648. PcolaDan 3:41 AM GMT en Septiembre 05, 2010
Quoting DestinJeff: It'd be like opening Davey Jones' locker. Get funny looks while walking down the street. Member Since: Agosto 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6008

1649. AtHomeInTX 3:41 AM GMT en Septiembre 05, 2010
Quoting txraysfan: Way back when we built our house, brick, we had the bricklayers put stainless steel bolts around our windows to be able to board up. This was before they had all the neat little clips and stuff they have now. Well my new home is mobile so that means so am I before any storm now. Lol. Well the ones we know are coming. Humberto was like riding a storm out inside a collapsing soda can. My poor dog still has a nervous breakdown when a rain drop hits the house. I cut her some slack though. I know what it sounded like to us can't imagine what she heard. Do they make xanax for dogs? Member Since: Agosto 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3873

1651. gordydunnot 3:42 AM GMT en Septiembre 05, 2010
i could swear this was a tropical blog but I am getting so confused I may need a shrink well i might need it a little more now anyways.Hay KKK most people on the coast are one or two steps a head of those lurking deep within the east coast. Member Since: Agosto 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3044

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