Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Earl hits Nova Scotia but spares New England; Gaston still a threat

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:30 PM GMT en Septiembre 04, 2010

Tropical Storm Earl roared ashore over western Nova Scotia late this morning, bringing heavy rain and tropical storm force winds to much of the province. The capital of Halifax recorded sustained winds of 51 mph, gusting to 75 mph at 12:48pm AST this afternoon, and the power is out to tens of thousands of residents in Nova Scotia. Winds were stronger at McNabs Island, in Halifax Harbor, where sustained winds of 64 mph, gusting to 76 mph, occurred at noon AST.

Earl's center passed about 100 miles southeast of Nantucket, Massachusetts, at 1am EDT this morning, and the winds on the weak left side of the storm never reached sustained tropical storm strength (39 mph) at any New England land station. The peak wind gust in Massachusetts may have been the 58 mph gust recorded on Cape Cod 5 miles south-southeast of Barnstable early this morning. Earl did bring some very high waves to New England; waves at the buoy 60 miles southeast of Nantucket peaked at 27 feet early this morning. Heavy rain from Earl--over five inches in some locations--caused localized flooding and road closures on Cape Cod and on Marthas Vineyard.

Figure 1. Hurricane Earl as seen from the International Space Station on Thursday, September 2, 2010. Image credit: NASA astronaut Douglas Wheelock.

Figure 2. Radar estimated rainfall from Earl from the Cape Cod radar.

Gaston a threat to develop
Recent satellite imagery shows that Gaston's remains have developed a well-organized surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air surrounds Gaston's remains on all sides, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. This dry air will continue to be a major impediment to development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next four days, then fall to the low range. The winds creating the shear are coming from the east, where a tongue of dry air has intruded. These easterly winds will be able to drive the dry air into Gaston's core, disrupting it, unless the storm can find a moister environment. It is also possible that Gaston may be able to protect its core by wrapping moisture around to its east side; recent visible satellite imagery shows a band of moisture wrapping around along Gaston's south side. If this process is successful, Gaston may have a good chance of becoming a tropical depression on Sunday. I suspect there is too much dry air in Gaston's environment for Gaston to develop into a tropical depression today. The atmosphere is moister near the Lesser Antilles Islands, and Gaston has a better chance of developing on Monday when it finds this moister environment. NHC is giving Gaston a 70% chance of regenerating into a tropical depression by Monday. The models are in fairly good agreement bringing Gaston though the central or northern Lesser Antilles Islands on Tuesday. The storm should then slow down and head more to the west-northwest on Wednesday and Thursday, in response to a large trough of low pressure expected to move off the U.S. East Coast. Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic might be at risk of a strike by a reborn Tropical Storm Gaston by Thursday, if the storm follows a more southerly track over the next few days.

Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Gaston's remains.

Gulf of Mexico disturbance
A concentrated area of heavy thunderstorms has developed over the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche. This disturbance is under a low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and has a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday, according to NHC. The disturbance is headed northwest at 5 - 10 mph, but could turn more to the north-northwest and bring heavy rains to the Texas/Mexico border region on Monday, according to the latest run of the GFS model.

99L
A tropical wave (99L) near the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa is moving northwestward at about 10 mph. The wave has a bit of spin to it, but not much heavy thunderstorm activity. This system is under moderate wind shear, but is headed towards a region of high wind shear northwest of the Cape Verdes Islands. This shear will very likely destroy the disturbance by Tuesday. NHC is giving 99L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday afternoon.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS and ECMWF models are predicting development 3 - 6 days from now of a tropical wave that hasn't emerged from the coast of Africa yet.

Next post
I'll have an update by 1pm Sunday afternoon.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Earl Waves (Murko)

Waves from Eleuthera, Bahamas, as Earl passed by as a cat 4 storm. The cliffs are about 30ft high.

Earl The Pearl (teach50)

Went down to Jones Beach again today. The beach was taken over by the power of the waves during high tide.

Hurricane Earl Surf@ Newport RI # 4 (RIWXPhoto)

Categories: Hurricane

Permalink | A A A

Top of Page

Reader Comments

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200

Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 901 - 951

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 — Blog Index

901. IKE 10:44 PM GMT en Septiembre 04, 2010
Quoting xcool: IKE .ECMWF getting this one rigth. I wouldn't bet against it. It could change on the next run, but...I wouldn't bet on that either. GFS shows another Danielle track on a system...please..not again. Member Since: Junio 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37047

902. seflagamma 10:44 PM GMT en Septiembre 04, 2010
my 12 hour work day is almost completed and my work week over for another week... now time to enjoy the next 4 days... I am sure I will be checking back in here on and off thru the weekend; just to be sure nothing serious is going on. You all have a wonderful Labor Day Weekend! Gams Member Since: Agosto 29, 2005 Posts: 286 Comments: 40485

903. Vero1 10:45 PM GMT en Septiembre 04, 2010
Just so Gas Ton does not turn into a Gas Can at a Gas Tion. Member Since: Julio 21, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 2233

904. xcool 10:47 PM GMT en Septiembre 04, 2010
IKE :) guess we'll find out to tonight Member Since: Septiembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

905. IKE 10:47 PM GMT en Septiembre 04, 2010
Latest NOGAPS takes Ex-Gaston over Haiti and DR in 5 days. Member Since: Junio 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37047

906. sporteguy03 10:49 PM GMT en Septiembre 04, 2010
Quoting IKE: Latest NOGAPS takes Ex-Gaston over Haiti and DR in 5 days. I do notice that what models develop Gaston had him over Haiti and Dominican Republic and near land throughout that might also keep him in check. Member Since: Julio 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 4824

907. TropicalAnalystwx13 10:51 PM GMT en Septiembre 04, 2010
Gaston may become the third major huricane of the year after it gets rid of the Dry Air. Member Since: Julio 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25358

908. hydrus 10:52 PM GMT en Septiembre 04, 2010
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: Gaston may become the third major huricane of the year after it gets rid of the Dry Air. Methinks so too. Member Since: Septiembre 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14315

909. aquak9 10:53 PM GMT en Septiembre 04, 2010
Quoting IKE: I wouldn't bet against it. It could change on the next run, but...I wouldn't bet on that either. GFS shows another Danielle track on a system...please..not again. why please, not again? danielle was not a problem, not even bad for bermuda Member Since: Agosto 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25009

911. TropicalAnalystwx13 10:55 PM GMT en Septiembre 04, 2010
Earl caused up to $150 million dollars in damage. Member Since: Julio 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25358

912. aquak9 10:57 PM GMT en Septiembre 04, 2010
Quoting stormwatcherCI: Lots of peppers. We can't use them fast enough so we put them in jars with onions, sliced carrots and vinegar. Use the vinegar on fish, meat or whatever. Excellent but HOT. that's awesome. I strung up the cayennes - had about six strings, a foot long each- and just gave them all to the neighbors. You can string yours up with a big-eyed needle, and thin hemp string. Member Since: Agosto 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25009

913. TropicalAnalystwx13 10:57 PM GMT en Septiembre 04, 2010
Quoting KerryInNOLA: A lot of you freaks seem sad that XGaston remains dead. Member Since: Julio 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25358

914. hydrus 10:58 PM GMT en Septiembre 04, 2010
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: Earl caused up to $150 million dollars in damage. Jeez....They tallied that up already?...Then its a good bet that number will increase significantly. Member Since: Septiembre 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14315

915. IKE 10:58 PM GMT en Septiembre 04, 2010
Quoting aquak9: why please, not again? danielle was not a problem, not even bad for bermuda No...I'm grateful for that. Just the arguing on track it leads to. And most of the time they curve from where that strengthens on the GFS. Member Since: Junio 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37047

916. will40 10:58 PM GMT en Septiembre 04, 2010
18Z GFS get Bermuda tho Member Since: Septiembre 19, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 3439

917. will40 11:00 PM GMT en Septiembre 04, 2010
Member Since: Septiembre 19, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 3439

918. TropicalAnalystwx13 11:01 PM GMT en Septiembre 04, 2010
Low looks to be over land/over water. Its become better organized...I'd give it a 50% chance, however, the NHC will likely up it to 40% or keep it at 30%. 60% is a VERY distinct possibility. Member Since: Julio 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25358

919. Chavalito 11:01 PM GMT en Septiembre 04, 2010
Ex Gaston, now RIP. Is almost dead, if not yet right now. Member Since: Agosto 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 45

920. xcool 11:02 PM GMT en Septiembre 04, 2010
yeah rip lol Member Since: Septiembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

921. stormwatcherCI 11:03 PM GMT en Septiembre 04, 2010
Quoting aquak9: that's awesome. I strung up the cayennes - had about six strings, a foot long each- and just gave them all to the neighbors. You can string yours up with a big-eyed needle, and thin hemp string. Thanks for the idea. Member Since: Octubre 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8043

922. IKE 11:03 PM GMT en Septiembre 04, 2010
Will this stay at 80% or be lowered? Member Since: Junio 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37047

923. aquak9 11:03 PM GMT en Septiembre 04, 2010
Just the arguing on track it leads to. that's what I figured, but wasn't sure. It's a Gerbil. Wanna bet brownies on this fish? :) Member Since: Agosto 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25009

924. TropicalAnalystwx13 11:04 PM GMT en Septiembre 04, 2010
Quoting IKE: Will this stay at 80% or be lowered? It'll stay at 80% IMO Member Since: Julio 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25358

925. largeeyes 11:04 PM GMT en Septiembre 04, 2010
Back from Atlantic Beach, NC. Perhaps not normal Labor Day weekend busy, but it was pretty packed. Waves were awesome, got the snot beat out of me.... Member Since: Agosto 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1381

926. LADobeLady 11:05 PM GMT en Septiembre 04, 2010
Quoting IKE: Will this stay at 80% or be lowered? I think I can, I think I can? Member Since: Julio 29, 2005 Posts: 21 Comments: 794

927. TropicalAnalystwx13 11:05 PM GMT en Septiembre 04, 2010
Quoting Chavalito: Ex Gaston, now RIP. Is almost dead, if not yet right now. Your hilarious! Member Since: Julio 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25358

928. IKE 11:05 PM GMT en Septiembre 04, 2010
Quoting aquak9: Just the arguing on track it leads to. that's what I figured, but wasn't sure. It's a Gerbil. Wanna bet brownies on this fish? :) LOL! Why not. Member Since: Junio 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37047

929. xcool 11:05 PM GMT en Septiembre 04, 2010
IKE .0% Member Since: Septiembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

930. kmanislander 11:05 PM GMT en Septiembre 04, 2010
Member Since: Agosto 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939

931. stormwatcherCI 11:06 PM GMT en Septiembre 04, 2010
Quoting kmanislander: Vort looking much better than earlier. Member Since: Octubre 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8043

932. MiamiHurricanes09 11:06 PM GMT en Septiembre 04, 2010
Quoting Chavalito: Ex Gaston, now RIP. Is almost dead, if not yet right now. Impatience is what you have. I've already gotten used to this. Both Earl and Danielle got 'ripped' when they were in the EATL because their circulations were exposed and because convection was decreasing (due to the dry air). Well guess what, both went on to become category 4 hurricanes. When all that remains from ex-Gaston is a cloud then I'll 'rip' it, but right now it still maintains a closed and well-defined circulation, and for as long as it has that, it has a good chance to re-develop into a tropical cyclone. Member Since: Septiembre 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

933. IKE 11:06 PM GMT en Septiembre 04, 2010
NHC are pro's. My eyes are in good shape for a 52 year-old. I'll say they lower it to 60% and say convection has diminished, but there's still a chance...... Member Since: Junio 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37047

934. weatherwart 11:06 PM GMT en Septiembre 04, 2010
Quoting IKE: Will this stay at 80% or be lowered? Hi Ike. Where's the center of circulation, in the SE quandrant? I'm not real clear looking at it? Member Since: Agosto 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 873

935. IKE 11:07 PM GMT en Septiembre 04, 2010
Quoting xcool: IKE .0% lol. Member Since: Junio 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37047

936. Hurricanes101 11:07 PM GMT en Septiembre 04, 2010
I see no reason for the NHC to lower the chances for development vorticity continues to increase, convection is limited; partly to diurnal minimum patience is something some on this board seem to lack Member Since: Marzo 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

937. stormwatcherCI 11:07 PM GMT en Septiembre 04, 2010
Quoting kmanislander: 6 hours previous. Member Since: Octubre 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8043

938. HurricaneSwirl 11:07 PM GMT en Septiembre 04, 2010
Quoting xcool: IKE .0% Now that would be hilarious! THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0%... That would not be good for the health and sanity of the blog. Member Since: Julio 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237

939. kmanislander 11:07 PM GMT en Septiembre 04, 2010
Quoting stormwatcherCI: Vort looking much better than earlier. Indeed. Gaston just waiting for the sun to go down LOL Member Since: Agosto 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939

940. HurricaneSwirl 11:08 PM GMT en Septiembre 04, 2010
Quoting Hurricanes101: I see no reason for the NHC to lower the chances for development vorticity continues to increase, convection is limited; partly to diurnal minimum patience is something some on this board seem to lack Agreed, vorticity has gone up impressively. Member Since: Julio 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237

941. TropicalAnalystwx13 11:08 PM GMT en Septiembre 04, 2010
Quoting IKE: NHC are pro's. My eyes are in good shape for a 52 year-old. I'll say they lower it to 60% and say convection has diminished, but there's still a chance...... I highly doubt that. Member Since: Julio 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25358

942. xcool 11:09 PM GMT en Septiembre 04, 2010
IKE .lol Member Since: Septiembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

943. Tropicaldan 11:09 PM GMT en Septiembre 04, 2010
Very relieved to see the remnants of Gaston continue to struggle and hopefully this will be officially written off very soon. There was something of a Gastonmania at one point here on St Martin with level-headed people referring to it as the 'next Luis' and a virtual certainty to hit the island, etc etc There is still some good circulation to be concerned about, but the closer it gets to the islands without getting its act together the better and better it looks for us. Dan Member Since: Febrero 17, 2006 Posts: 3 Comments: 85

944. IKE 11:09 PM GMT en Septiembre 04, 2010
COC is the "o" right in the middle of this image... Member Since: Junio 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37047

945. Vero1 11:09 PM GMT en Septiembre 04, 2010
Quoting weatherwart: Hi Ike. Where's the center of circulation, in the SE quandrant? I'm not real clear looking at it? At 2pm it was 150 nm east of convection: 1008 MB LOW OF GASTON IS CENTERED NEAR 16N46W MOVING WNW AT 10 KT. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS EXPOSED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...HOWEVER CURVED BANDS OF CONVECTION SWIRL AROUND THE LOW WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 150 NM OF THE LOW CENTER IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. Member Since: Julio 21, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 2233

947. MiamiHurricanes09 11:10 PM GMT en Septiembre 04, 2010
Quoting IKE: Will this stay at 80% or be lowered? Why should it be lowered? Yes the convection has decreased, but the surface circulation got better defined and more vigorous. Plus, the conditions ahead of ex-Gaston are nearly the same as they were at 2pm when the previous TWO was released. Member Since: Septiembre 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

948. stormwatcherCI 11:11 PM GMT en Septiembre 04, 2010
Quoting kmanislander: Indeed. Gaston just waiting for the sun to go down LOL Seems to be working the dry air out too. Member Since: Octubre 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8043

950. aquak9 11:11 PM GMT en Septiembre 04, 2010
hi LAdobelady! so how long do I have, before Hurricane Gerbil hits Florida? Like, at least 8 days, right? Member Since: Agosto 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25009

951. HurricaneSwirl 11:12 PM GMT en Septiembre 04, 2010
I think it'll stay at 80%. Really not a reason to lower it, but at this point to raise it would mean that it is or is just a SLIVER under TD status, and I think it's convection scenario is just a tad more than a sliver under TD status. A good blow-up and bam we have Gaston again. Member Since: Julio 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237

Viewing: 901 - 951

Top of Page

New Comment

Community Standards Policy Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

About JeffMasters