Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Earl hits Nova Scotia but spares New England; Gaston still a threat

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:30 PM GMT en Septiembre 04, 2010

Tropical Storm Earl roared ashore over western Nova Scotia late this morning, bringing heavy rain and tropical storm force winds to much of the province. The capital of Halifax recorded sustained winds of 51 mph, gusting to 75 mph at 12:48pm AST this afternoon, and the power is out to tens of thousands of residents in Nova Scotia. Winds were stronger at McNabs Island, in Halifax Harbor, where sustained winds of 64 mph, gusting to 76 mph, occurred at noon AST.

Earl's center passed about 100 miles southeast of Nantucket, Massachusetts, at 1am EDT this morning, and the winds on the weak left side of the storm never reached sustained tropical storm strength (39 mph) at any New England land station. The peak wind gust in Massachusetts may have been the 58 mph gust recorded on Cape Cod 5 miles south-southeast of Barnstable early this morning. Earl did bring some very high waves to New England; waves at the buoy 60 miles southeast of Nantucket peaked at 27 feet early this morning. Heavy rain from Earl--over five inches in some locations--caused localized flooding and road closures on Cape Cod and on Marthas Vineyard.

Figure 1. Hurricane Earl as seen from the International Space Station on Thursday, September 2, 2010. Image credit: NASA astronaut Douglas Wheelock.

Figure 2. Radar estimated rainfall from Earl from the Cape Cod radar.

Gaston a threat to develop
Recent satellite imagery shows that Gaston's remains have developed a well-organized surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air surrounds Gaston's remains on all sides, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. This dry air will continue to be a major impediment to development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next four days, then fall to the low range. The winds creating the shear are coming from the east, where a tongue of dry air has intruded. These easterly winds will be able to drive the dry air into Gaston's core, disrupting it, unless the storm can find a moister environment. It is also possible that Gaston may be able to protect its core by wrapping moisture around to its east side; recent visible satellite imagery shows a band of moisture wrapping around along Gaston's south side. If this process is successful, Gaston may have a good chance of becoming a tropical depression on Sunday. I suspect there is too much dry air in Gaston's environment for Gaston to develop into a tropical depression today. The atmosphere is moister near the Lesser Antilles Islands, and Gaston has a better chance of developing on Monday when it finds this moister environment. NHC is giving Gaston a 70% chance of regenerating into a tropical depression by Monday. The models are in fairly good agreement bringing Gaston though the central or northern Lesser Antilles Islands on Tuesday. The storm should then slow down and head more to the west-northwest on Wednesday and Thursday, in response to a large trough of low pressure expected to move off the U.S. East Coast. Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic might be at risk of a strike by a reborn Tropical Storm Gaston by Thursday, if the storm follows a more southerly track over the next few days.

Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Gaston's remains.

Gulf of Mexico disturbance
A concentrated area of heavy thunderstorms has developed over the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche. This disturbance is under a low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and has a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday, according to NHC. The disturbance is headed northwest at 5 - 10 mph, but could turn more to the north-northwest and bring heavy rains to the Texas/Mexico border region on Monday, according to the latest run of the GFS model.

99L
A tropical wave (99L) near the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa is moving northwestward at about 10 mph. The wave has a bit of spin to it, but not much heavy thunderstorm activity. This system is under moderate wind shear, but is headed towards a region of high wind shear northwest of the Cape Verdes Islands. This shear will very likely destroy the disturbance by Tuesday. NHC is giving 99L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday afternoon.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS and ECMWF models are predicting development 3 - 6 days from now of a tropical wave that hasn't emerged from the coast of Africa yet.

Next post
I'll have an update by 1pm Sunday afternoon.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Earl Waves (Murko)

Waves from Eleuthera, Bahamas, as Earl passed by as a cat 4 storm. The cliffs are about 30ft high.

Earl The Pearl (teach50)

Went down to Jones Beach again today. The beach was taken over by the power of the waves during high tide.

Hurricane Earl Surf@ Newport RI # 4 (RIWXPhoto)

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551. Chicklit 8:11 PM GMT en Septiembre 04, 2010
Great shot murko. Aside from the beautiful scenery, looks like you know what you're doing with a camera. Member Since: Julio 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10247

552. GTcooliebai 8:12 PM GMT en Septiembre 04, 2010
Quoting BenBIogger: The 1950 Season had 6 Named Storms formed in October. Whew Florida got Smacked Up! Member Since: Agosto 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5168

553. BenBIogger 8:12 PM GMT en Septiembre 04, 2010
Trivia for those who are interested.... If a troughing pattern sets up for the West coast, what does it mean for the East??? 8 to 10 DAY 500MB MEAN Member Since: Marzo 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1419

554. belizeit 8:13 PM GMT en Septiembre 04, 2010
Quoting stormpetrol: I notice everytime a storm is downgraded to a remnant models are taken off the Wunderground page, regardless of % of development! I seen the model update on TWC and they are in fairly good concensus that it will enter the Eastern Caribbean and track possibly South of PR , not good for us here in The caymans Do you have a link to the models Member Since: Enero 10, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 785

555. Tazmanian 8:13 PM GMT en Septiembre 04, 2010
is 99L dead in the water? Member Since: Mayo 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111323

556. StormSurgeon 8:13 PM GMT en Septiembre 04, 2010
Quoting CajunTexan: So what are some of you guys' thoughts on the BOC disturbance???? It looks like it certainly needs to be watched, all be it that is with my untrained eyes.... Any thoughts on this? Yuo just said it pretty well. It's a distubance that needs to be watched. I believe it's expected to drift NW in to Mexico. Lets keep an eye on it though. Member Since: Septiembre 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1792

557. Murko 8:14 PM GMT en Septiembre 04, 2010
Quoting stormwatcherCI: Didn't realize earlier that it was your photo but it is beautiful. I love looking at the sea when it gets like that. My husband always tells me I am crazy. When Dean passed us we were on a curfew but I still went out to look at it. Luckily I wasn't caught. LOL There are 3 more photos in the series, click on my profile, and a video at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=clIlMApwv1o Member Since: Julio 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 127

558. TropicalAnalystwx13 8:15 PM GMT en Septiembre 04, 2010
Member Since: Julio 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25213

559. Murko 8:15 PM GMT en Septiembre 04, 2010
Thanks, Chicklit Member Since: Julio 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 127

560. Hurricanes101 8:16 PM GMT en Septiembre 04, 2010
Quoting BenBIogger: Trivia for those who are interested.... If a troughing pattern sets up for the West coast, what does it mean for the East??? 8 to 10 DAY 500MB MEAN ridging Member Since: Marzo 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

562. stormwatcherCI 8:16 PM GMT en Septiembre 04, 2010
I hope this is done right. The tightly clustered is the Dynamic and the other is Statistical. I am not Patrap. Member Since: Octubre 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8038

563. StormSurgeon 8:17 PM GMT en Septiembre 04, 2010
Quoting Tazmanian: is 99L dead in the water? 99L isn't dead yet, but the chances are very slim it's devlopment. Member Since: Septiembre 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1792

564. RobertM320 8:17 PM GMT en Septiembre 04, 2010
Quoting Tazmanian: is 99L dead in the water? 100,000 comments. WOW! Member Since: Septiembre 27, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 111

565. WeatherfanPR 8:17 PM GMT en Septiembre 04, 2010
I think that the model consensus is that Gaston will be affecting Puerto Rico but we don't know how strong Gaston will be. Member Since: Agosto 23, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1506

566. BenBIogger 8:19 PM GMT en Septiembre 04, 2010
560. Correct.... Member Since: Marzo 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1419

567. StormSurgeon 8:20 PM GMT en Septiembre 04, 2010
Tell you one thing, the weather on the N. GOM has been great the past few days and Labor Day is looking good. Hit the beach, oil is no longer a factor........except your tanning oil. Member Since: Septiembre 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1792

568. ElConando 8:20 PM GMT en Septiembre 04, 2010
Quoting RobertM320: 100,000 comments. WOW! 65k of em are from his blog. Member Since: Septiembre 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3703

569. stormpetrol 8:20 PM GMT en Septiembre 04, 2010
Quoting belizeit: Do you have a link to the models Sorry I don't was only going by what they discussed and showed on TWC, I'm sure some one here will be able to give you a link though! Member Since: Abril 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6394

570. Hurricanes12 8:20 PM GMT en Septiembre 04, 2010
Can anyone post any SAT image of Pre-Gaston? Thanks. Member Since: Junio 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 528

571. stormwatcherCI 8:21 PM GMT en Septiembre 04, 2010
Quoting BenBIogger: 560. Correct.... Ridging drives storms further west preventing recurvature( I think but correct me if I am wrong please). Member Since: Octubre 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8038

572. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 8:22 PM GMT en Septiembre 04, 2010
Member Since: Julio 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40413

573. StormSurgeon 8:22 PM GMT en Septiembre 04, 2010
Quoting RobertM320: 100,000 comments. WOW! 68 comments.......I wish I was more like you....and I mean that. Member Since: Septiembre 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1792

574. seflagamma 8:22 PM GMT en Septiembre 04, 2010
this time in 1979 we were watching Hurricane David.. Member Since: Agosto 29, 2005 Posts: 286 Comments: 40483

575. stormpetrol 8:22 PM GMT en Septiembre 04, 2010
Quoting stormwatcherCI: I hope this is done right. The tightly clustered is the Dynamic and the other is Statistical. I am not Patrap. The first set of models are the ones I seen on TWC. Member Since: Abril 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6394

576. alexhurricane1991 8:23 PM GMT en Septiembre 04, 2010
Quoting stormwatcherCI: Ridging drives storms further west preventing recurvature( I think but correct me if I am wrong please). Your right not a good pattern at all Member Since: Abril 8, 2010 Posts: 15 Comments: 2543

577. nrtiwlnvragn 8:24 PM GMT en Septiembre 04, 2010
Models SFWMD Colorado State FSU-AE Evans FSUTropical Cyclone Genesis Member Since: Septiembre 23, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 8918

578. StormSurgeon 8:24 PM GMT en Septiembre 04, 2010
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE: Moisture starved......but not dead by any means. You agree? Member Since: Septiembre 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1792

579. TropicalAnalystwx13 8:24 PM GMT en Septiembre 04, 2010
Quoting Hurricanes12: Can anyone post any SAT image of Pre-Gaston? Thanks. Member Since: Julio 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25213

580. RobertM320 8:25 PM GMT en Septiembre 04, 2010
Quoting StormSurgeon: 68 comments.......I wish I was more like you....and I mean that. LOL...I'm strictly a lurker..lots to learn and little to contribute...BTW, the weather is truly grand here in NOLA today! Cut the grass for the first time in three weeks. The neighbors want to throw me a party! Member Since: Septiembre 27, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 111

581. stormwatcherCI 8:25 PM GMT en Septiembre 04, 2010
Quoting alexhurricane1991: Your right not a good pattern at all Thanks. I guess I did take something in from all the lessons on here. Member Since: Octubre 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8038

582. xcool 8:25 PM GMT en Septiembre 04, 2010
WHXX01 KWBC 041835 CHGHUR TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1835 UTC SAT SEP 4 2010 DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS. PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION. ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR DISTURBANCE GASTON (AL092010) 20100904 1800 UTC ...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS... 100904 1800 100905 0600 100905 1800 100906 0600 LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON BAMS 16.6N 46.6W 17.1N 48.8W 17.6N 51.4W 17.9N 54.2W BAMD 16.6N 46.6W 17.0N 48.7W 17.2N 51.2W 17.2N 54.0W BAMM 16.6N 46.6W 17.0N 48.3W 17.2N 50.1W 17.2N 52.2W LBAR 16.6N 46.6W 17.3N 48.7W 18.1N 51.3W 18.8N 54.2W SHIP 30KTS 34KTS 40KTS 48KTS DSHP 30KTS 34KTS 40KTS 48KTS ...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS... 100906 1800 100907 1800 100908 1800 100909 1800 LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON BAMS 18.4N 57.2W 18.9N 62.9W 19.7N 67.2W 20.8N 70.1W BAMD 17.2N 57.0W 17.3N 62.6W 17.8N 66.7W 18.8N 68.9W BAMM 17.3N 54.5W 17.6N 58.8W 18.7N 62.4W 20.2N 65.1W LBAR 19.3N 57.1W 19.6N 62.9W 19.1N 67.7W 19.5N 70.3W SHIP 58KTS 77KTS 93KTS 107KTS DSHP 58KTS 77KTS 93KTS 107KTS ...INITIAL CONDITIONS... LATCUR = 16.6N LONCUR = 46.6W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 12KT LATM12 = 15.9N LONM12 = 44.2W DIRM12 = 291DEG SPDM12 = 13KT LATM24 = 15.0N LONM24 = 42.0W WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 30KT CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = S RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM Member Since: Septiembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

583. TropicalAnalystwx13 8:26 PM GMT en Septiembre 04, 2010
Quoting StormSurgeon: Moisture starved......but not dead by any means. You agree? Mine (#578) is more recent. Member Since: Julio 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25213

584. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 8:26 PM GMT en Septiembre 04, 2010
Quoting StormSurgeon: Moisture starved......but not dead by any means. You agree? need a deep convective cycle to get going here thats all it needs Member Since: Julio 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40413

585. xcool 8:26 PM GMT en Septiembre 04, 2010
Member Since: Septiembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

586. belizeit 8:26 PM GMT en Septiembre 04, 2010
Quoting stormpetrol: Sorry I don't was only going by what they discussed and showed on TWC, I'm sure some one here will be able to give you a link though! I see the latest nogaps run puts Gaston between you and cuba at the last frame Member Since: Enero 10, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 785

587. InTheCone 8:26 PM GMT en Septiembre 04, 2010
12z GFDL Gaston 12z HWRF Gaston These models are still running on Gaston, don't know if that's what people are looking for, but here they are. Member Since: Septiembre 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1979

588. StormSurgeon 8:27 PM GMT en Septiembre 04, 2010
Quoting stormwatcherCI: I hope this is done right. The tightly clustered is the Dynamic and the other is Statistical. I am not Patrap. I think the bottom is stastical and the top dynamic...not sure. I think Pats are flipped from yours.....I think. Member Since: Septiembre 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1792

589. TropicalAnalystwx13 8:27 PM GMT en Septiembre 04, 2010
Recent one also Member Since: Julio 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25213

590. AtHomeInTX 8:28 PM GMT en Septiembre 04, 2010
GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS THAT DIPS TO 29N. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS TROUGHING...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 90W IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS. THE LONGWAVE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ENTERS THE GULF NEAR 30N86W THEN WESTWARD TO 29N90W OVER SE LOUISIANA THEN TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 27N97W. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SUPPORTS A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS. ONE IS ANALYZED FROM 28N86W TO 24N92W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE OTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 28N93W 23N96W TO 19N95W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE MEXICO COAST S OF 25N AND OVER THE SW GULF S OF 24N W OF 92W. WHILE LOWER PRESSURE VALUES EXIST OVER THE SW GULF...GLOBAL MODELS ARE INDICATING CYCLOGENESIS IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF E OF 90W...AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS ANCHORED OVER FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 25N81W AND EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SW TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 78W-85W. Looks like there's another spin due south of TX/LA border. Best I can tell it's low level. Link Member Since: Agosto 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3873

592. xcool 8:28 PM GMT en Septiembre 04, 2010
000 NOUS42 KNHC 041330 WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 0930 AM EDT SAT 04 SEPTEMBER 2010 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2010 TCPOD NUMBER.....10-096 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: A. PROBABLE 6-HRLY FIXES ON THE REMNANTS OF GASTON NEAR 16.5N 55.0W AT 06/1200Z. B. A G-IV FLIGHT FOR 07/0000Z. C. POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST IN THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 22.5N 96.5W AT 06/1500Z. 3. REMARKS: NCAR G-V WILL FLY A 9 HR RESEARCH FLIGHT INTO GASTON ABOVE 41,000 FT. DEPARTING 05/1000Z. II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE. JWP Member Since: Septiembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

593. CajunTexan 8:29 PM GMT en Septiembre 04, 2010
Quick question... Is Gaston's remnants something we should be watching on the Northern Gulf Coast or when/if it develops is it pretty well pre determined that it wouldn't get that far West? Thanks in advance for any answers! Member Since: Septiembre 24, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 119

594. Chicklit 8:29 PM GMT en Septiembre 04, 2010
Quoting StormSurgeon: Moisture starved......but not dead by any means. You agree? Gastonlookin'badder Member Since: Julio 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10247

595. InTheCone 8:30 PM GMT en Septiembre 04, 2010
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: Recent one also Looks better than it did a few hours ago when I saw it! Member Since: Septiembre 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1979

596. seflagamma 8:30 PM GMT en Septiembre 04, 2010
Quoting seflagamma: this time in 1979 we were watching Hurricane David.. actually that was before computers and TWC, we were "watching" it the best we could on the major network channels.. Aug 25 - Sept 9th, 1979 I was new the Florida just moved here from Memphis in July... and I had the big paper map to place all the dots every 3 hours for the updated positions.. It was coming our way... then had a baby on Aug 30th as we went under watches...and got to come home from hospital just in time to board up! Member Since: Agosto 29, 2005 Posts: 286 Comments: 40483

597. stormwatcherCI 8:30 PM GMT en Septiembre 04, 2010
Also, this time in 2004 we were watching Ivan the Terrible which formed as a TD on Sept 2 and became a hurricane on Sept 5. Member Since: Octubre 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8038

598. AtHomeInTX 8:30 PM GMT en Septiembre 04, 2010
Quoting xcool: Hey xcool. :) Those models don't look good for Caribbean. :( Member Since: Agosto 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3873

599. TropicalAnalystwx13 8:30 PM GMT en Septiembre 04, 2010
Quoting CajunTexan: Quick question... Is Gaston's remnants something we should be watching on the Northern Gulf Coast or when/if it develops is it pretty well pre determined that it wouldn't get that far West? Thanks in advance for any answers! Its way too far out for people on the Gulf Coast to worry. Ask again in about 5-7 days. :) Member Since: Julio 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25213

600. StormSurgeon 8:30 PM GMT en Septiembre 04, 2010
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE: need a deep convective cycle to get going here thats all it needs Agreed, he tried last night but just couldn't hold the convection.....as you know. Member Since: Septiembre 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1792

601. Tazmanian 8:31 PM GMT en Septiembre 04, 2010
Quoting seflagamma: this time in 1979 we were watching Hurricane David.. but the blog where not a round at this time Member Since: Mayo 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111323

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