Hurricane warnings for North Carolina for Category 3 Earl
Hurricane warnings are flying for the coast of North Carolina, as Hurricane Earl chugs to the northwest at 17 mph. Earl has weakened some over the past day, thanks to an eyewall replacement cycle and some dry air that got wrapped into the core of the storm. Earl's eye made a direct hit on NOAA buoy 41046 at 4am EDT this morning. The buoy recorded a surface pressure of 943 mb, exactly what the Hurricane Hunters were estimating. The buoy measured winds in the eyewall of 76 mph, gusting to 96 mph. The peak winds of Earl were stronger than this, though, since the buoy only reported measurements once per hour, which is not a fine enough resolution to see the peak winds. The buoy is also located at a height of 5 meters, which is less than the standard ten meter height used to do wind measurements, so an additional upward adjustment needs to be made. Peak waves at the buoy were a remarkable 49 feet.
A recent microwave "radar in space" image (Figure 2) shows that dry air has spiraled into the core of Earl, knocking a gap into the southern eyewall. The latest 9am EDT report from the Hurricane Hunters confirmed that the southwest portion of the eyewall was missing. Top winds seen by the Hurricane Hunters were only Category 2 strength, and Earl may be weaker than the stated 125 mph winds in the 11am NHC advisory.
Figure 1. Image of Hurricane Earl taken by astronaut Douglas Wheelock aboard the International Space Station on Tuesday, Aug. 31, 2010.
>
Figure 2. Microwave "radar in space" image of Hurricane Earl taken at 6:45am EDT Wednesday, September 1, 2010. The southern portion of Earl's eyewall was missing, thanks to a slug of dry air (blue colors) that had spiraled into Earl's core.
Intensity forecast for Earl
Recent satellite loops show that upper level outflow is good to the north and east of Earl, but is poor on the southwest side. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows that this is because upper level winds out of the southwest are creating 15 - 20 knots of wind shear on Earl's southwest side. The winds are from a trough of low pressure to Earl's west. This trough is forecast to weaken and move to the west away from Earl, which should reduce the shear to 10 - 15 knots by Thursday morning. If true, the relaxation in shear may give Earl enough time to mix out the dry air it ingested and regain its previous 135 mph Category 4 intensity. Water vapor satellite loops, though, show there is still plenty of dry air on Earl's west side that could potentially wrap into the storm if there is enough wind shear to drive it into Earl's circulation. Ocean temperatures are still very high, a near-record 29.5 - 30°C, and very warm waters extend to great depth, resulting in a total ocean heat content favorable for intensification. It is likely Earl will be a Category 2 or 3 hurricane at its closest approach to North Carolina Thursday night and Friday morning, with a small chance it will be at Category 4 strength. By Friday night, when Earl will be making its closest approach to New England, wind shear will rise to a high 20 - 30 knots and ocean temperatures will plunge to 20°C, resulting in considerable weakening. Earl will still probably be a Category 1 or 2 hurricane on Friday night, when it could potentially make landfall in Massachusetts. Earl is more likely to be a strong tropical storm or weak Category 1 hurricane on Saturday morning, when it could potentially make landfall in Maine or Nova Scotia, Canada.
Impact of Earl on North Carolina
The latest set of computer models runs from 2am EDT (6Z) this morning are very similar to the previous set of runs. The NOGAPS model brings Earl closest to the coast, predicting the west eyewall of the the hurricane will hit the Outer Banks of North Carolina near 2am Friday. If this track verifies, a period of 40+ mph winds will affect coastal North Carolina for a period of 12 - 18 hours beginning at about 6pm EDT Thursday night. Earl's expected radius of hurricane-force winds of 60 miles to the west will bring hurricane conditions as far west as Morehead City and Elizabeth City in North Carolina. Earl's radius of tropical storm-force winds to the west, over land, will probably be about 150 miles, so locations from Wilmington to Norfolk could see sustained winds of 40 mph in this worst-case model scenario. Storm surge would not be significant along the North Carolina coast facing the open ocean, since winds would be offshore. However, a significant storm surge of 3 - 6 feet could occur in Pamlico Sound, due to strong west to north winds. Coastal Highway 12 out of the Outer Banks would likely be blocked by sand and debris or washed out, resulting in a multi-day period where everyone on the Outer Banks would be stranded. Is is possible that the NOGAPS scenario is not the worst case, and that Earl will strike farther west, resulting in the Outer Banks getting the fearsome maximum winds of the storm's right front quadrant. However, it is more likely that Earl will pass just offshore, resulting in North Carolina receiving the weaker west side winds. Since Earl's forward speed will be about 20 mph at that time, the winds on the hurricane's west side will be about 40 mph less than the right front quadrant on the east side. The NHC wind probability forecast is calling for a 23% chance of hurricane-force winds on Cape Hatteras, 7% for Morehead City, and 3% for Norfolk, Virginia.
Impact of Earl on New England
The NOGAPS model brings Earl closest to the coast of New England, predicting the west eyewall of the the hurricane will pass over Nantucket at about 2am Saturday morning, and the tip of Cape Cod a few hours later. If this track verifies, 40+ mph winds would affect southeastern Massachusetts for a period of 6 - 12 hours beginning at about 8pm EDT Friday night. Earl should be a weaker Category 1 or 2 hurricane then, with hurricane-force winds extending 30 miles to the left of its track. Hurricane conditions would then affect the eastern tip of Long Island, coastal Rhode Island, and Southeast Massachusetts. Earl's radius of tropical storm-force winds to the north, over land, will probably be about 150 miles, so locations from Central Long Island to southern Boston would experience sustained winds of 40 mph in this worst-case model scenario. A storm surge of 3 - 5 feet might occur in Long Island Sound, and 2 - 3 feet along the south coast of Long Island. A deviation to the left, with a direct hit on eastern Long Island and Providence, Rhode Island, would probably be a $10 billion disaster, as the hurricane would hit a heavily populated area and drive a drive a 5 - 10 foot storm surge up Buzzards Bay and Narragansett Bay. The odds of this occurring are around 5%, according to the latest NHC wind probability forecast. The forecast is calling for a 25% chance of hurricane-force winds on Nantucket, 8% in Providence, 6% in Boston, and 18% in Hyannis. Keep in mind that the average error in position for a 3-day NHC forecast is 185 miles, which is about how far offshore Earl is predicted to be from New England early Saturday morning.
Impact of Earl on Canada/Maine
Late morning Saturday, Earl is expected to make landfall somewhere between the Maine/New Brunswick border and central Nova Scotia. At that time, Earl should be a strong tropical storm or weak Category 1 hurricane. This won't be another Hurricane Juan, the 2003 Category 2 hurricane which made a direct hit on Halifax, Nova Scotia, causing over $200 million in damage. Earl's impact is likely to be closer to 2008's Hurricane Kyle, which hit near Yarmouth, Nova Scotia, as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Kyle produced a storm surge of 2.6 feet, and did $9 million in damage to Canada. The NHC wind probability forecast is calling for a 29% chance of hurricane-force winds in Yarmouth, 24% in Halifax, and 17% in Eastport, Maine.
Beach erosion
Regardless of Earl's exact track, the U.S. East Coast can expect a long period of high waves beginning on Thursday. Significant beach erosion and dangerous rip currents will be the rule, due to waves that will reach 10 - 15 feet in offshore waters. Beach erosion damage in the mid-Atlantic states will likely run into the millions, but will probably not be as bad as that suffered during Nor'easter Ida in November of 2009. That storm (the remains of Hurricane Ida that developed into a Nor'easter) remained off the coast for several days, resulting in a long-duration pounding of the shore that caused $300 million in damage--$180 million in New Jersey alone.
Record ocean temperatures off the U.S. Mid-Atlantic Coast
The period May - July was the hottest such 3-month period in history for the Northeast and Southeast U.S., according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. Most of the hurricane-prone states along the coast, including New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, Virginia, North Carolina, and South Carolina had their hottest May - July in the 116-year record. These record air temperatures led to record ocean temperatures, according to an analysis I did of monthly average 5x5 degree SST data available from the UK Met Office Hadley Centre.. The region of ocean bounded by 35N - 40N, 75W - 70W, which goes from Cape Hatteras, North Carolina to Central New Jersey, had the warmest July ocean temperatures since records began in 1875--a remarkable 2.12°C (3.8°F) above average. The year 2008 was a distant second place, with temperatures 1.5°C (2.7°F) above average. The ocean region off the Southeast U.S. coast, bounded by 30N - 35N, 80W - 75W, from the Georgia-Florida border to Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, had its 4th warmest July ocean temperatures on record. Temperatures were 0.8°C (1.4°F) above average, which fell short of the record 1.1°C anomaly of 1944. The August numbers are not available yet, but will probably show a similar story.
All this warm water off the East Coast means it is much easier for a major hurricane to make landfall in the mid-Atlantic or Northeast U.S. Usually, ocean temperatures fall below the 26.5°C threshold needed to support a hurricane as soon as a storm pushes north of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. This year, those temperatures extend all the way to the New Jersey coast (Figure 3.) Such warm ocean temperatures increase the odds of a major hurricane making it to the mid-Atlantic or New England coasts. Since record keeping began in 1851, there have been only 15 major hurricane in U.S. coastal waters north of the North Carolina/Virgina border--about one per decade. The last such storm was Hurricane Alex of August 6, 2004.
Figure 3. Water surface temperatures from AVHRR satellite data for the 6-day period ending August 31, 2010. Ocean temperatures of 26.5°C, capable of supporting a hurricane, stretched almost to Long Island, New York. Image credit: Ocean Remote Sensing Group, Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory.
Fiona
Tropical Storm Fiona last night showed us why hurricane forecasting is such a difficult job. The storm made an unexpected slow-down in forward speed. This slow-down resulted in less wind shear affecting Fiona than expected, since the storm is farther from the upper-level outflow of Hurricane Earl. The wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group shows just a moderate 10 - 20 knots of shear affecting Fiona, which is low enough that the storm has been able to organize into a respectable 60 mph tropical storm. Martinique radar shows that the outer bands from Fiona are bringing heavy rain squalls to the same islands of the northern Lesser Antilles that were affected by Earl. Our wundermap shows that winds in the islands are all below 20 mph, but winds will increase to 30 - 40 mph later today as Fiona draws closer. Satellite loops show that heavy thunderstorm activity has decreased some in recent hours. This may be due to the fact that Fiona is currently crossing the cold water wake of Earl.
Forecast for Fiona
In the short term, moderate wind shear and dry air should keep Fiona from attaining hurricane status, though we do have several models that predict it could become a Category 1 hurricane. Fiona is likely to come close enough to Bermuda on Saturday or Sunday to pose a threat to that island, though it is possible high wind shear from Earl could kill the storm by then. The long term fate of Fiona remains unclear, with some models calling for dissipation this weekend, and other models calling for Fiona to be left behind by Earl to wander over the ocean near Bermuda early next week.
Figure 4. Morning radar image of Fiona from the Martinique radar. Image credit: Meteo France.
TD 9
Invest 98L gained enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be classified as Tropical Depression Nine this morning. This wil probably be Tropical Storm Gaston by tomorrow morning. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next five days, and TD 9 could be a Category 1 hurricane five days from now, as predicted by the GFDL model. The storm will likely pose a threat to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands by Tuesday.
Next post
I'll have an update this afternoon.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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along with all other areas along the US coast that are still rebuilding from hurricanes as well
I am shocked by how little Hurricane Ike is talked about and that was only 2 years ago
Wasn't saying that the science wasn't on top of the situation. The learning I meant was the popular cultural understanding of what 'canes are about. Had media focused on impacts outside NOLA, public officials and local media, not to mention the general public, might have responded better.
2 years today it was named.
How time flies.
Facts are Facts, nicely said. Man-made faulty engineering of structures and greatly enhance a storms destructive damage capability. If one must argue media or situational cirucumstances, than just argue awareness for structures to be scrutinized and inspected, tested more often, and if those structures haven't are in doubt or untested, than a leader must air on the side of caution and "Sound the Alarm for Evac". They failed to do that soon enough for all the typical reasons.There in lies the Lession.
The Colorado State team said at the beginning of the season that there was a 44% chance of a major storm hitting somewhere along the coast of the Gulf. So yes, there is certainly a possibility. Development shifts to the Caribbean and Gulf in October, so I would not let me guard down if I lived down there.
Public adjusters contract for a percentage of the claim and in return they push the claim adjuster to write as much as they can legally write on the claim. Sometimes they push for more than is actually damaged in a storm.
The best advise I can give is to get out your policy BEFORE the storm and read it in detail. If you have ANY questions, call your agent or the insurance company themselves and ask the questions that you need to until you have a crystal clear understanding of your policy.
To counter the statement that the adjuster looks out for the company's bottom line only, the fact is that most adjusters get paid based on how much damage they write on a claim. The more damage they can write on a claim, the more money that the adjuster makes. So the incentive is there for the adjuster to write whatever legitimate damage they can find. The adjuster can ONLY write damage that they can document with a report and photos. Normal wear and tear, construction defects and such are not covered. Only damage that is due to an actual loss is allowed to be written on a claim.
Knowledge is power. You do not need anyone to "represent" you on your claim to get a fair claim. Know your policy, know your deductible, know your policy coverages and limitations, and know your rights and responsiblities as an insured. It is all there in black and white.
Represent yourself. It's alot cheaper than giving away part of the money that is allocated to repair your home. The shortfall will come out of your pocket.
From what I learned, the observers used to take the flight level winds x .9 and that was the best seat-of-the-pants way to estimate.
Other methods include looking at wavetop characteristics and using GPS Dropsondes.
Today, the hurricane hunters use the SFMR (Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer) known as the Smurf to measure microwave energy coming off the wave tops....
+100 -- "It's just a Cat 2; not worth dealing with the hassle of getting out in the road with all that traffic and all. Stay home with your Rita generator." Basic message from Beaumont media "meteorologist" the day before the storm (Beaumont media covers Orange County, including Bridge City).
LOL!
Earl looking dangerous. Wow! Its seems Earl is restrengthening. Dr. Masters seemed to hint at a slight chance of Earl being a cat. 4 when its at its closest approach to NC. For those that don't know this, the last time we had a cat. 4 near or at the NC coast was Hurricane Hazel in 1954, this would be extreme if Earl pulled that off. Here are some recent hurricanes that have been near or who have made landfall at the NC Coast:
Hanna & Cristobal 2008: Both Tropical Storms
Gabrielle 2007: Tropical Storm
Ophelia 2005: Cat. 1 Hurricane
Charley 2004: Rapidly weakening Tropical Storm
Alex 2004: Cat. 2 Hurricane
Isabel 2003: Cat. 2 Hurricane
Floyd 1999: Cat. 2 Hurricane
Dennis 1999: Tropical Storm
Bonnie 1998: Cat. 3 Hurricane
Fran 1996: Cat. 3 Hurricane
Not as many votes on the Mississippi coast...
Katrina would not have had nearly the publicity had she not struck a city that was well below sea level and with a shoddy levee system. Prior to Katrina, the media was more than eager for an event like that to happen. Look at all the press that came afterward...Anderson Cooper's bank account certainly got bigger. Nobody paid much attention to what happened in Mississippi, not with all the ensued chaos in New Orleans.
953mb (Surface) 80° (from the E) 99 knots (114 mph)
951mb 80° (from the E) 102 knots (117 mph)
946mb 90° (from the E) 129 knots (148 mph)
Hey cw ;) Great to see you! Yes, she did jog E at the 11th hour. And yes, that made a huge difference for NO. Without any levee breaking, a Cat 4 surge would have put twenty feet of water in the French Quarter.
Nothing can be ruled out at this point, it's very early in the game.
And a shotgun with bird shot in it for snakes...seriously!
For you folks who have to evacuate from the East Coast, and you are planning on coming down to the New Orleans area, please let me know if I can be of any assistance. If you have pets, my family and I will be glad to watch them for you. I've evacuated for Georges, Ivan, Katrina, and Gustav, so I can TOTALLY empathize with your emotions right now.
Transmitted: 1st day of the month at 17:37Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number & Year: 07L in 2010
Storm Name: Earl (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 10
Observation Number: 09
A. Time of Center Fix: 1st day of the month at 17:06:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 25°34'N 72°38'W (25.5667N 72.6333W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 296 miles (477 km) to the E (83°) from Nassau, Bahamas.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,610m (8,563ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 87kts (~ 100.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the SW (216°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 298° at 82kts (From the WNW at ~ 94.4mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the SW (217°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 941mb (27.79 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,048m (10,000ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,049m (10,003ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 11°C (52°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 26 nautical miles (30 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Wind Outbound: 138kts (~ 158.8mph) in the northeast quadrant at 17:14:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 138kts (~ 158.8mph) in the northeast quadrant at 17:14:30Z
URNT12 KNHC 011737
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL072010
A. 01/17:06:50Z
B. 25 deg 34 min N
072 deg 38 min W
C. 700 mb 2610 m
D. 87 kt
E. 216 deg 16 nm
F. 298 deg 82 kt
G. 217 deg 19 nm
H. 941 mb
I. 12 C / 3048 m
J. 17 C / 3049 m
K. 11 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. C26
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF306 1007A EARL OB 09
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 138 KT NE QUAD 17:14:30Z
I don't know what level they're flying at, whether it'd be 90% at the surface. If it is 90%, that puts him at roughly 145mph. Be back to a Category Four. I'd imagine they'd be flying a little higher than that, though, but he's improving.
I don't think he'll get higher than a Four - small mercies - and haven't since he started blooming. So, you might have to munch on that crow sandwich a little longer...
(Btw, I did love the irony, as it was the Earl of Sandwich who gave his name to sandwiches).
Nagin had a press conference on Saturday morning urging people to evacuate. He also said the Superdome was NOT to be used as a shelter. Some people just don't listen. I know some people have transportation issues, but they were given at least 2 days notice to arrange something.
I don't know Shen...I think a lot of times the failed local authority response is based on risk analysis (chance of a direct hit, or the "it's not coming here" philosophy)and economic impact. Not because they don't understand how dangerous the storms can be.
Well, we still talk about Ike around here. ;)
It still boggles me to see the pictures of those huge granite boulders that Ike ripped up from the base of the seawall and deposited all over Seawall Blvd. Those boulders were there to prevent wave action undermining the wall...
a year later we visited the beach. Where we wound up it sure seemed like there should have been a closer stairway down the seawall to the beach. There should have been. It was lying on its side on the beach.
In the 19th century, two hurricanes struck the coastline, each in 1804 and in 1821; both caused minor damage. The most significant storm of the century was the Gale of 1878, which produced hurricane force winds across western New Jersey. The hurricane caused severe damage and 8 deaths.
* 1278–1438 – Though New Jersey hurricane history is unknown prior to its founding in 1524, sedimentary layers indicate a powerful hurricane hit the state's coastline during this time period.[2]
* October 9, 1804 – The Storm of October 1804 strikes near Atlantic City as a strong Category 2 or weak Category 3 hurricane, sinking or beaching many ships in the Mid–Atlantic. The hurricane later produces a snow storm in New England.[3]
* August 23, 1806 – A ship off Barnegat Island sinks during the Great Coastal Hurricane of 1806, killing 21 people.[4]
* September 22, 1815 – The Great September Gale of 1815 causes heavy damage along the New Jersey coastline while remaining offshore, though exact totals are unknown.[5]
* August 9, 1817 – A tropical storm moves through the western portion of the state.[6]
* September 3, 1821 – The 1821 Norfolk and Long Island Hurricane hits near Cape May as a Category 4 hurricane. Accompanied by a five foot storm surge, damage is great in the small town, though is only moderate along the coastline due to the sparse population. No known deaths are associated with the hurricane in the state.[7]
* August 30, 1839 – A hurricane that remains offshore of the state forced the floating light in Sandy Hook to break loose and set adrift.[8]
* October 3, 1841 – A hurricane that remains offshore caused a mixture of rain and snow in New Brunswick.[9]
* October 13, 1846 – The Great Havana Hurricane of 1846 passes near or over the state, destroying many houses, downing many trees, and drowning several livestock.[10]
* July 18, 1850 – A tropical storm passes to the west of the state, causing heavy rain and crop damage in Burlington.[11]
* August 25, 1850 – A hurricane passes just south of Cape May, causing over 3 inches (8 cm) of rain in New Brunswick.[12]
* September 8, 1850 – A hurricane parallels the coastline offshore, causing high winds and 2.6 inches (6.6 cm) of rain in Newark.[13]
* September 28, 1861 – A strong tropical storm passes over the state, though its effects are unknown.[14]
* September 19, 1863 – A moderate tropical storm crosses the state, though its effects are unknown.[14]
* October 30, 1866 – A moderate tropical storm brushes the northeastern portion of the state before entering New York, though its effects are unknown.[14]
* October 26, 1872 – Approaching from Delaware, a tropical storm moves across New Jersey with winds of 45 mph (75 km/h). Its effects are unknown.[14]
* August, 1873 – Though it never makes landfall on the United States, the Great Nova Scotia Cyclone approaches the state, prompting the U.S. Army Signal Corps to issue a hurricane warning from Cape May to New Haven, Connecticut.[15]
* September 29, 1874 – A tropical storm moves through the state, though its effects are unknown.[14]
* October 23, 1878 – The Gale of 1878 passes to the west of New Jersey, producing winds of up to 84 mph (136 km/h). Strong winds uproof around 150 houses in Camden, while telegraph lines and trees are downed across the state. In addition, many railroad lines are either washed out or blown over. The hurricane causes high tides and strong flooding, destroying several houses along the coastline. In all, the hurricane causes 8 deaths and severe damage.[16]
* September 12, 1882 – A tropical storm that passes to the south of the state causes strong winds and damage along the coastline.[17]
* September 24, 1882 – A weak tropical storm parallels the coastline and causes no known damage.[14]
* June 23, 1886 – A tropical depression crosses the state, causing no known damage.[14]
* August 24, 1893 – A hurricane passes just east of the state and later makes landfall near New York City. The hurricane produces strong winds and rainfall along the coastline, though causes no known deaths.[18]
From what I understand from people who used to live in NOLA, every year the local media had specials about what would happen in the event of a hit from a major like Katrina. Sadly, it was not surprising that it happened, that much was pretty much a certainty. What is sad is people were surprised by it.
???
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 138 KT NE QUAD 17:14:30Z
I was trying to quote DestinJeff, I obviously didn't do it right!
I'll take a side of apocalyps westcasting.
It sure has the makings of it.
gonna be a busy busy end of the hurricane season. I think at least 3 more major storms will form. maybe 5.....
AN AIR FORCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE HURRICANE IS BEGINNING TO
STRENGTHEN AND EARL COULD AGAIN BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE
LATER TODAY.
Transmitted: 1st day of the month at 17:37Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number & Year: 07L in 2010
Storm Name: Earl (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 10
Observation Number: 09
A. Time of Center Fix: 1st day of the month at 17:06:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 25°34'N 72°38'W (25.5667N 72.6333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 296 miles (477 km) to the E (83°) from Nassau, Bahamas.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,610m (8,563ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 87kts (~ 100.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the SW (216°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 298° at 82kts (From the WNW at ~ 94.4mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the SW (217°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 941mb (27.79 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,048m (10,000ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,049m (10,003ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 11°C (52°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 26 nautical miles (30 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Wind Outbound: 138kts (~ 158.8mph) in the northeast quadrant at 17:14:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 138kts (~ 158.8mph) in the northeast quadrant at 17:14:30Z
if the nhc where too ues the part that i under line we have a cat 5
Looks a mess aesthetically, though.
Those are fligh level and do not support cat 5. Unless they are at 50 feet.
Thanks for your answer....:)
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL072010
A. 01/17:06:50Z
B. 25 deg 34 min N
072 deg 38 min W
C. 700 mb 2610 m
D. 87 kt
E. 216 deg 16 nm
F. 298 deg 82 kt
G. 217 deg 19 nm
H. 941 mb
I. 12 C / 3048 m
J. 17 C / 3049 m
K. 11 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. C26
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF306 1007A EARL OB 09
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 138 KT NE QUAD 17:14:30Z
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Viewing: 601 - 651
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