Earl maintaining Category 4 strength; hurricane watches for North Carolina
Hurricane watches are now posted for coastal North Carolina, as Hurricane Earl continues towards the west-northwest at 13 mph with little change in strength. Currently, the outer reaches of the storm are affecting the Turks and Caicos Islands, and NOAA's Wavewatch III model is predicting 15 - 20 foot waves are affecting these islands. Early this morning, waves at buoy 41043 offshore of Puerto Rico reached 31 feet. Winds at Providenciales in the Turks were only 20 - 25 mph this afternoon, though Cockburn Town and Balfour Town in the extreme eastern Turks may be seeing winds near tropical storm force--40 mph.
Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Earl.
Intensity forecast for Earl
Recent visible satellite loops show that the southwest side of Earl is getting eaten into by wind shear and dry air. The storm is no longer as symmetrical as 24 hours ago, and the spiral band on Earl's west side has been destroyed by dry air. Wind shear as diagnosed by the latest SHIPS model forecast shows a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, due to upper level winds out of the southwest from a trough of low pressure to Earl's west. This moderate shear is predicted to continue through Friday. Water vapor satellite loops show some moderately dry air to Earl's southwest, and very dry air to the northwest. Once Earl works its way farther to the northwest, it is possible that the persistent moderate wind shear will be able to drive this dry air deep enough into Earl's west side to significantly disrupt it. However, none of the models is predicting this, and Earl is probably large and strong enough to fend off this sort of assault. I give a 30% chance that a major dry air intrusion will significantly disrupt Earl between now and Thursday, weakening it to a Category 2 hurricane. Ocean temperatures are a near-record 29.5 - 30°C, and very warm waters extend to great depth, resulting in a total ocean heat content favorable for intensification. Earl is undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle, which may diminish its winds by 10 - 20 mph for a day or so. There is no evidence that Earl has weakened, though, based on the latest pressure of 940 mb from the Hurricane Hunters. It is likely Earl will be a major Category 3 or 4 hurricane at its closest approach to North Carolina Thursday night and Friday morning. By Friday night, when Earl will be making its closest approach to New England, wind shear will rise to a high 20 - 30 knots and ocean temperatures will plunge to 20°C, resulting in considerable weakening. Earl will still probably be a Category 2 hurricane on Friday night, when it could potentially make landfall in Massachusetts. Earl is more likely to be a Category 1 hurricane on Saturday morning, when it could potentially make landfall in Maine or Nova Scotia, Canada.
Track forecast for Earl
The latest set of computer models runs from 8am EDT (12Z) are pretty unified in taking Earl 100 - 200 miles off the coast of North Carolina, then 150 - 300 miles off the coast of Southeast Massachusetts, then into Nova Scotia. The high degree of model unity gives confidence that this is the correct solution, but it is good to keep in mind that the average error in a 48-hour NHC forecast is about 125 miles. It is likely that Earl will bring a 15-hour period of heavy rain and tropical storm force winds of 39+ mph to North Carolina's Outer Banks, beginning on Thursday evening. NHC is giving Cape Hatteras a 15% chance of receiving hurricane force winds. By Friday evening, Southeast Massachusetts can expect a 6 - 8 hour period of heavy rain and tropical storm force winds of 39+ mph. NHC is giving Nantucket a 13% chance of receiving hurricane force winds. These odds are 5% for Boston, 6% for Providence, 8% for Eastport, Maine, and 14% for Yarmouth, Nova Scotia. The main determinant of whether Earl hits the U.S. or not is a strong trough of low pressure predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast Friday. This trough, if it develops as predicted, should be strong enough to recurve Earl out to sea. Keep in mind that the average error in position for a 3-day NHC forecast is 185 miles.
Regardless of Earl's exact track, the U.S. East Coast can expect a long period of high waves beginning on Thursday. Significant beach erosion and dangerous rip currents will be the rule, due to waves that will reach 10 - 15 feet in offshore waters. Waves from Hurricane Danielle killed two swimmers in the U.S. over the weekend and forced hundreds of water rescues along the U.S. East Coast. Earl's waves will be worse, and will likely cause millions of dollars in beach erosion damage.
Next update
Dr. Rob Carver is planning an update late tonight, and I'll have a full update in the morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Thanks, I'll keep googleing for a diff one
Hi Cosmic,
You can see it clearly (ugh) at bl's post a couple pages back- gray WVL. He pointed out a big punch coming from NW to SE that made its way in from Pac NW. I think what you're seeing in "the middle" where I live (OK) is not THE trough. THE trough is expected in OKlahoma Thurs eve/early Friday last I looked.
I talked to him today.....had no idea. Think things like this is best not discussed in open forum tho......Sorry!
new blog
About how far in Nautical miles is Earl away? I know he's at least a lat/lon away. But how far is that?
I'm just not real sure about this Polar Bear trough yet! Lookin' more like a cub, up against 4 big cub eaters. Plus, you've the high digging, down from the nwest to split, inhibit, delay the longwave.
Maritime forecast has the dearly departing Danielle weakness effectively, and finally, "GONE" by somewhere around noon tomorrow. After that, I'm thinking Earl will no longer have the desire to move as much northwards, and that he will push more westwards up against the 1016-1018 (maybe 1020)mb high pressure, and then slow. Maybe that will give the polar bear trough time to tug him out to sea.
But, I ain't bettin' on it!
depending on how fast he has moved from 11 pm est to that hurricane force gust, probably 65-70 nautical miles away.
Huh? Then, he's gonna have to put the pedal down!
I do think if the trough ever gets here, that Earl will look like he's been shot out of a cannon, but as the trough becomes more tilted, sorry, still not buying into it just yet.
Not scare tactics, not doomcasting; but frankly, really, I think folks along the eastern seaboard should be a bit scared. This storms does NOT have to make landfall to be deadly, to be catastrophic.
from its previous heading of 6.6degrees west of NorthNorthWest
H.Earl's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions was ~20.7mph(~33.3km/h
31Aug . 03amGMT - - 19.9n65.8w - - 135mph - - 938mb - -NHC.Adv. #23
31Aug . 06amGMT - - 19.9n66.2w - - 135mph - - 933mb - - #23A
31Aug . 09amGMT - - 20.5n66.7w - - 135mph - - 931mb - - #24
31Aug . 12pmGMT - - 20.7n67.2w - - 135mph - - 931mb - - #24A
31Aug . 03pmGMT - - 21.2n67.9w - - 135mph - - 939mb - - #25
31Aug . 06pmGMT - - 21.5n68.5w - - 135mph - - 940mb - - #25A
31Aug . 09pmGMT - - 22.0n68.8w - - 135mph - - 940mb - - #26
01Sept . 12amGMT - - 22.5n69.1w - - 135mph - - 940mb - - #26A
01Sept . 03amGMT - - 23.0n69.9w - - 135mph - - 940mb - - #27
Copy&paste 19.9n65.8w, 19.9n66.2w, 20.5n66.7w, 20.7n67.2w, 21.2n67.9w-21.5n68.5w, 21.5n68.5w-22.0n68.8w, 22.0n68.8w-22.5n69.1w, 22.5n69.1w-23.0n69.9w, jax, 23.0n69.9w-29.24n81.1w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12hours.
Using straightline projection upon the speed&heading averaged
over the 3hours spanning the last two reported positions:
~35hours from now to DaytonaBeach,Florida
What is the latest heading in degrees for Earl?
Wind Speed (WSPD): 58.3 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 73.8 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 37.7 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 17 sec
Average Period (APD): 10.4 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWD): ESE ( 118 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 28.95 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.54 in ( Falling Rapidly )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 76.1 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 84.0 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 75.0 °
Since mid June, the pattern has been good sized low pressure systems coming across Ohio and Penn that fall apart over the fall line at the NJ border and evaporate by the time they reach the coast. So not much comfort here in wishing the low will push Earl out to sea. If it arrives on time it may still have enough push in Md. and Dela.
As P-451 noted earlier the water temps are much warmer off shore than normal.
Our inlets are small and back bays large so a close shave will get us coming and going.
The faster this thing is the less time we are pounded. If it's close in shore a fast forward speed bodes ill for LI., and Conn.
Viewing: 1601 - 1621
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