Earl hits Category 4; Fiona forms
Powerful Hurricane Earl, now a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds, continues to lash Puerto Rico and the northern Lesser Antilles Islands with heavy rain and high winds this afternoon. Hardest hit was Anegada in the British Virgin Islands, population of 200. The eye of Earl passed just north of Anegada at noon EDT, and the island probably saw sustained winds of 100 mph in the south eyewall of Earl. Second hardest hit was probably the island of Anguilla. Amateur weather observer Steve Donahue at anguilla-weather.com estimated gusts of 100 mph on Anguilla this morning; his anemometer broke at 88 mph. Juliana airport on neighboring St. Martin Island recorded sustained winds of 47 mph, gusting to 68 mph at 8am EDT. Winds were below tropical storm force on Antigua, but heavy rains of 5.71" have deluged the island. Heavy rains have hit Puerto Rico, where radar-estimated rainfall amounts of up to 5" have occurred southwest of San Juan. A heavy rain band moved across the island late this morning, with a tornadic thunderstorm that prompted issuance of a tornado warning.
Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Earl.
Figure 2. Radar image of Earl taken this afternoon from the San Juan, Puerto Rico radar.
Outlook for the Caribbean islands today
Latest radar animations out of Puerto Rico show that the eye of Earl has now moved past the Virgin Islands, and winds will begin to subside on most of the islands this evening. Heavy rains will continue through Tuesday, however, bringing the risk of flash flooding and mudslides.
Intensity forecast for Earl
Wind shear as diagnosed by the latest SHIPS model forecast is nearly non-existent over Earl--just 4 knots--but is expected to increase to the moderate range, 10 - 15 knots, tonight through Thursday afternoon, due to upper level winds out of the southwest from a trough of low pressure to Earl's west. This shear should not appreciably affect Earl between now and Thursday, since the hurricane is so large and strong. Ocean temperatures are a near-record 30°C, and very warm waters extend to great depth, resulting in a total ocean heat content highly favorable for continued intensification. Earl should continue to intensify until reaching Category 4 or 5 strength on Tuesday, and will probably maintain major hurricane status through Thursday, when it will make its closest approach to North Carolina. The hurricane will probably undergo at least one eyewall replacement cycle during that period, which will diminish its winds by 20 - 30 mph for a day or so. By Friday, when Earl will be making its closest approach to New England, wind shear will rise to a high 20 - 30 knots and ocean temperatures will plunge to 20°C, resulting in considerable weakening. Earl will still probably be a Category 2 hurricane on Friday, when it could potentially make landfall in Massachusetts. Earl is more likely to be a Category 1 hurricane on Saturday morning, when it could potentially make landfall in Maine or Nova Scotia, Canada.
Figure 3. Swath of surface winds from Earl predicted by the 8am EDT Monday August 30, 2010 run of NOAA's HWRF model. Hurricane force winds (yellow colors, above 64 kt) are predicted to stay off the coast, except over Nova Scotia. Tropical storm force winds (light green colors, above 34 knots) are predicted to affect virtually the entire U.S. coast from North Carolina to Maine. Winds between 58 mph - 73 mph (dark green colors) are predicted to affect North Carolina's Outer Banks, Southeast Massachusetts, and Eastern Maine. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.
Track forecast for Earl
The latest set of computer models runs from 8am EDT (12Z) this morning push Earl's projected track a little closer to the U.S. East Coast, but still keep hurricane force winds offshore. History suggests that a storm in Earl's current location has a 25% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast, and Earl's chances of making a U.S. landfall are probably close to that. We now have one model predicting a U.S. landfall--the latest HWRF model predicts Earl will hit the Maine/Nova Scotia border region on Saturday morning as a Category 1 hurricane. None of the other computer models show Earl hitting the U.S., but the storm will likely come uncomfortably close to North Carolina's Outer Banks and to Massachusetts. Several models now predict Earl will being tropical storm force winds of 39+ mph to North Carolina's Outer Banks, beginning on Thursday evening. The Outer Banks of North Carolina and Cape Cod, Massachusetts are both at the edge of the cone of uncertainty, and could potentially receive a direct hit. NHC is giving Cape Hatteras a 11% chance of receiving hurricane force winds. These odds are 10% for Nantucket, 5% for Boston, and 3% for New York City. The main determinant of whether Earl hits the U.S. or not is a strong trough of low pressure predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast Friday. This trough, if it develops as predicted, should be strong enough to recurve Earl out to sea, but it is not unusual for the models to miss the timing and intensity of these troughs significantly in 4 - 5 day forecasts.
Regardless of Earl's exact track, the U.S. East Coast can expect a long period of high waves beginning on Thursday. Significant beach erosion and dangerous rip current will be the rule, due to waves that will reach 10 - 15 feet in offshore waters.
Hurricane History for the northern Lesser Antilles
The last Cape Verdes-type hurricane to affect the Barbuda and the surrounding northern Lesser Antilles Islands was Hurricane Debby of 2000, which passed over the islands on August 28 as a Category 1 hurricane. Damage was less than $1 million, and no fatalities were reported. The last hurricane of any kind to pass through the northern Lesser Antilles Islands was Category 4 Hurricane Omar, on October 16, 2008. Omar took an unusual track, moving towards the northeast, and the storm's eyewall missed all of the islands. Omar did $80 million in damage to the Caribbean, mainly on the islands of Antigua, Barbuda, Dominica, the SSS Islands (Saba, St. Eustatius, and St. Maarten), and the U.S. Virgin Islands. No direct deaths were attributed to Omar, and the name Omar was not retired from the 6-year rotating list of hurricane names.
Links to track Earl
Long range radar out of San Juan, Puerto Rico
Visible rapid scan satellite loop
Fiona forms
Tropical Storm Fiona finally gained enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be given a name, but continues to struggle with dry air. Satellite loops show that heavy thunderstorm activity comes and goes, and there are not many intense thunderstorms near the storm's center. The storm is experiencing low wind shear of less than 5 knots, and is over warm 29°C waters. The main impediment to development continues to be dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) surrounding the storm. The latest SHIPS model forecast calls for shear to increase to moderate, 10 - 15 knots, by Tuesday. Fiona is moving quickly to the west, at about 24 mph. This means it is catching up to Earl, which is moving at 15 mph. By Tuesday night, Earl is expected to be a large and powerful major hurricane with a well-developed upper-level outflow channel heading clockwise out from Earl's center at high altitudes. These strong upper-level winds will bring high levels of wind shear, 20 - 30 knots, to Fiona, and probably arrest the storm's development. A scenario predicted by the GFS, GFDL, and HWRF models is for Fiona to be drawn into the low pressure wake of Earl and pass to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles. Earl would then eventually destroy Fiona through high wind shear, and by robbing the storm of its moisture. An alternative scenario, championed by the ECMWF and NOGAPS models, is for Fiona to stay far enough away from Earl that it will be able to potentially threaten the Bahamas and U.S. East Coast early next week. At this point, it is difficult to choose between these two scenarios. History suggests that a storm in Fiona's current location has a 25% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast.
Figure 4. Afternoon satellite image of Fiona.
Danielle
Danielle is now a tropical storm, and is on its way to oblivion over the cold North Atlantic waters.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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I think it's pulled away already and now the high is building over earl. Then guess what happens it prob. trend earl more 'west'.
2205. KennyNebraska imgage showed this too.
listen the NHC they are rarely wrong and folks in here are rarely right.
you are all safe from him
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #18
TYPHOON KOMPASU (T1007)
12:00 PM JST August 31 2010
================================
SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Sea South Of Okinawa
At 3:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Kompasu (960 hPa) located at 25.6N 128.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 10 knots
Dvorak Intensity:
Storm Force Winds
==================
50 NM from the center
Gale Force Winds
================
120 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
100 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 30.6N 123.3E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon)
45 HRS: 35.4N 123.2E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Typhoon)
69 HRS: 41.5N 131.0E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
They also do the rock scissors paper thing - I know it's true because I saw it on YouTube.
Thought SWMBO said you couldn't connect the dots.
Thursday Night: Hurricane conditions possible. A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 75. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Friday: Hurricane conditions possible. Mostly sunny, with a high near 88.
Friday Night: Tropical storm conditions possible. Mostly clear, with a low around 77.
Link
If you are right thats gonna be one big eye and he will explode. Im looking forward to recon
RMM34667: Someone posted this link earlier to stormcarib.com. Seems to have info from all the islands in the area. Try this and good luck to you!
Link
Speak for yourself, whippersnapper!
Hmmmphf!
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #6
TROPICAL STORM NAMTHEUN (T1008)
12:00 PM JST August 31 2010
=============================
SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In Taiwan Strait
At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Namtheun (994 hPa) located at 25.4N 120.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 6 knots
Dvorak Intensity:
Gale Force Winds
================
60 NM from the center
Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 25.1N 120.1E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
45 HRS: 24.5N 120.8E - Tropical Depression
who you gonna believe......
RECON, or your lyin eyes! LOL
And now the 00Z GFS is running. This is where things get interesting
bet the 2am trends west yet again...
<===<===<===
he has followed the west side of the cone, though, defying the ridge weakness all this time and kind of bewildering my newfound knowledge of ridge maps. as to why he has done this, im not yet sure. it seemed so evident he was going to go on a more NW to N heading... faster. i surely dont wish him upon anyone.
30HRs
Bullheaded WNW track between 285 and 290 degrees.
No.. she said i wasn't allowed to... its different ;)
Everyone knows that the human brain can calculate millions of paramters faster and better than inline computing. Ehhh...right?
Whoa-- impressive.
Enter "Gaston"....that is an amazing image!
36hrs
TCEAT2
HURRICANE EARL TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1200 AM AST TUE AUG 31 2010
AT 12 AM AST...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS ESTIMATED FROM SAN
JUAN DOPPLER RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.1 WEST
OR ABOUT 105 MILES...170 KM...NORTH OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Quoting jason2010xxxx:
IN THE LAST TWO HOURS HURRICANE EARL IS MOVING WEST I AM WATCHING ON THE Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop
who you gonna believe......
RECON, or your lyin eyes! LOL
LOL
Oh come on, you know that's just some phony Google program the NHC came up with to hide when they're wrong!!! LOL
48hrs
Seems to be the beginning of the N turn at 30HR
You wanna have fun - click on a WV or IR loop and watch what happens when Earl hits the 20 Latitude line..
54hrs
How many days late is that?
west, actually..
That is S of WNW. By eye I'd say 280-285? Just sayin'
Look at the image of the track forecasted three hours ago on Jeff's blog. At 68W the eye is supposed to be greater than 23N. The models can't even get it correct for a four hour period.
Wunder's national map is showing the triple-barrel high parked along an axis from SW NC to SW NY, as the Lows along the Jet's trough are breaking up.
A) is a summer jet Trough strong enough to knock the Triple High out of the way? (not looking like it this time, at least)
B) Why aren't the models accounting for the parked highs (the assumptions have been predicated on the East Coast Ridge moving offshore)
C) Could this account for the storm's lack of a *true* NW turn thus far?
D) How much will the Mountains of Hispaniola effect Earl, assuming it continues the WNW tracking?
Maybe so, would explain a lot. I imagine it is fairly rare for this to happen so close to radar...Wonder if Wilma had the same dry slot. Here's more on trochoidal oscillation and a nice shot of Wilma doing it.
60hrs
Keep your freezer full; mostly water bottles, of any size, but larger the better, and have some ice made ahead, or buy several bags, and toss them 'em there. It will help keep that freezer full. Leave only what you will want to eat or drink in the next 24 hours in the frig, then transfer that to ice chests to save.
Or, have a small generator to keep your fridge going. I've had to do both, if you have a large freezer besides your inside refrigerator type, best thing is the genny. You just have to survive, and anyone can do it with a little forethought and planning.
A few hours ago I placed a marker at the center. Since then motion has been 285-288 degrees.
which one?
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