Tropical Depression Six arrives
Tropical Storm Tropical Depression Six is here, but it will not be a threat to land for at least the next five days. Tropical Depression Six is a classic "Cape Verdes"-type storm common during the peak part of hurricane season. Cape Verdes-type storms are so named because they form from tropical waves that come off the coast of Africa and pass near the Cape Verdes Islands just west of Africa. Cape Verdes hurricanes are the largest and most dangerous types of hurricane in the Atlantic, since they spend a long time over water have and have of opportunity to reach full maturity. Tropical Depression Six has a ways to go before it becomes a hurricane, as the storm is embedded in a strong easterly flow of wind courtesy of the African Monsoon that is generating a moderately high 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. There is also a tropical disturbance to the northeast of TD 6 that is sucking away some moisture and is interfering with the storm's circulation. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are a warm 28°C, and the storm is embedded in a moist environment, so wind shear is the primary inhibiting factor for development. The strong east winds imparting the shear are keeping any heavy thunderstorms from developing on the east side of the center of circulation, which is exposed to view in satellite imagery (Figure 1.)
Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Tropical Depression Six.
Forecast for Tropical Depression Six
A ridge of high pressure will force Tropical Depression Six to the west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 10 mph to 15 mph by Monday night. A powerful trough of low pressure over the mid-Atlantic Ocean will begin to pull Tropical Depression Six more to the northwest late this week, and the storm should pass well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands. It remains to be seen, however, it this trough will be strong enough to fully recurve Tropical Depression Six out to sea. The GFS predicts that Tropical Depression Six may pass close to Bermuda about eight days from now, and it is also possible that Tropical Depression Six could eventually hit the U.S. East Coast 9 - 15 days from now. However, we have no skill in making these sort of ultra-long range forecasts, and the long-range fate of TD 6 is uncertain.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF and NOGAPS models are predicting formation of a tropical depression off the coast of Africa 3 - 4 days from now.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Storm, here is the part that I just don't understand: why do the models not see the things that you and others see? They spend so much money and time on them and they can't see a weakness in front of a storm? I just don't get it.
Also, I'd expect 96L to form later today from the African AOI.
well spoken - sometimes I have to wipe the testosterone off the screen
though I'm sure a Hot Flash or two have happened through the years
Generally speaking though -- the women are better students w/far less aggression, since most of us have raised kids we're savvy at side-stepping tantrums and pre-school behaviors - IMHO
Is that what happened with Ike?
How many times have you said "fish storm" since this was over Africa?
Thank you.
Good for YOU, Wise One!
Danielle strengthening 8/23/10
ME too!...but I think this is where forecasting isn't just hard science, but also an art & the talent to sense is a "gift" COMPUTERS DON'T "SENSE or FEEL" A horse trainer can have all the book knowledge in the world -- but if he/she can't "tune" in , can't "feel", "sense" and really read the energy of the horse...the trainer maybe adequate, but not Gifted
okay, back to my seat
6Z HWRF....Link
ROTFLMAO!!!!
SURFIE - well said, well said. I poked my head in for a quick look this morning, but think I will back out and let the morning feeding frenzy wear a few folks out.
Back later in the day for the next discussion.
There are numerous instances where a building high has blocked the path of a system and even caused it to reverse course. Remember Andrew ?.
It was a weak and almost dissipated system headed out to sea and the next thing everyone knew it stopped in its tracks, intensified, made a turn due West and the rest is history.
Ivan did the same. It was on a track to pass over Jamaica, came to a dead stop 30 miles S of the island when it ran up underneath a high building to the West over Florida and then made a turn due West and passed about 25 miles S of Grand Cayman.
It is important to note though that it is not just the position of a high but also where other atmospheric features may be at the time. For instance, a building high / ULL combination would create a different steering regime than just having a strong ridge dominating.
The overriding point however is simple. Even strong hurricanes can head off in odd directions when least expected.
Hope you have a very SPECIAL & Happy B-day Link
Huh? You didn't blow that one. My locals, now they blew it big-time! And didn't admit it until after the fact. UGH! Which is another reason I'm glad there are other places to go for information than just the "Official" channels. No, what you did was save my ass. :)
Just asked if that is what happened to Ike because thats what the track looked like.
No, that's not what he was saying. He was basically suggesting that folks who don't know a whit about tropical weather should maybe sit back and quietly learn rather than constantly flood the forum with their non-scientific and biased points of view. To put it succinctly: an opinion or a wish is not a forecast.
I'm starting to wonder who has more spin - some of these statements that I am reading or Danielle?
and that's fine. But who gets to decide who is qualified enough to post? I paid for my membership here, I'm not allowed to post? I never post forecasts, just ask questions mostly. But if Dr. Masters wanted to limit participation, I'm sure he would.
Add climatology to that and hell its damn near a slam dunk!!! Of course never say never I guess.
I didn't know about Andrew and Ivan. Although I do remember someone saying he wished that Andrew was headed away from Miami like they thought at one time. But you are correct that they can make unexpected moves in track and intensity.
Well said lol.
Storm,
I have no training in that field. I am a retired mechanical engineer so I do enjoy studying charts and data. I really do appreciate all the information you give us. I am a native of Nebraska and have seen many tornadoes. I prefer hurricanes to them due to the advance notice. I moved to Florida over 10 years ago and live about a mile inland from the Atlantic about 45 miles north of West Palm Beach. Since I moved here we have taken three direct hits from hurricanes Francis, Jeanne and Wilma so I respect their power. My comments, on the very rare occasions I make one, are based upon what I can see from several different sources. I think the technology has made giant strides thanks to satellites. Needless to say, weather is a chain reaction over the entire earth and a change anywhere can affect the weather pattern everywhere. After the loop Jeanne made, I watch them very closely but don't get very concerned about my families' safety until about three days before the path is more clearly defined. I did have the pleasure of working on both the Gemini and Apollo projects for NASA subcontractors and am proud to have been involved in the technology that came from those projects. All things considered, Mother Nature will behave as she damn well pleases. Keep up the great work.
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