Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
can anyone show me proof that the center is not right under the middle there... outflow is incredible in all quadrants if that indeed is the center and we are borderline hurricane if that is the case... I think the center used to be further out but this is relocating right into the middle of the CDO

you may be right, and that sat image certainy looks healthier, but until we can get loops on visible we can't say for sure, cannot see cloudtop circulation nevermind convection without loops

Quoting smuldy:
you may be right, and that sat image certainy looks healthier, but until we can get loops on visible we can't say for sure, cannot see cloudtop circulation nevermind convection
without loops

I know but even the IR supports this if you loop it
IR Loop

if you look storms will not move to the north unless they are on the east side of the COC and the storms are moving northward on the east half of that CDO

Quoting Thundercloud01221991:



First Vis ... are you sure the center is not right under the middle of that convection???

Classic signature of a developing hurricane.

Good morning. Looks like our girls getting her act together. And this may not be a popular stance but it looks to me like the center is missing the forecast points by oh, about a billion miles. :) Link

Quoting homelesswanderer:
Good morning. Looks like our girls getting her act together. And this may not be a popular stance but it looks to me like the center is missing the forecast points by oh, about a billion miles. :) Link

well dont worry the unpopular stance is becoming popular

Morning all.

Quoting Cotillion:


Kimberlain's one of the more conservative forecasters. Although, his reasoning is probably shear related which is still undoubtedly affecting Danielle. Slow strengthening is a reasonable forecast, though this is probably a touch on the low side. Especially as Danielle could be 65mph already.

If it's only kept her in check so far, who knows what she'll do given the right opportunity. Looks like, at least for the next three days, shear'll be a bit of a roadblock.

Even Kimberlain himself says "conservatively" on the intensity call. I think they want to see what it looks like when the sun comes up.

Anyway, I gotta run... will check in later today if time permits, though it's supposed to be a busy one today....

Ya'll have a good one!

now that shear isnt much of an issue in the short term(beautiful outflow) not far reaching but very uniform "buzzsaw type", dry air intrusion from the NW will try to eat away at the left side of danielle as she presses her way westward. she is holding her own so far and, she bring along a very moist air mass with her.

Quoting Thundercloud01221991:



I know but even the IR supports this if you loop it
IR Loop

if you look storms will not move to the north unless they are on the east side of the COC and the storms are moving northward on the east half of that CDO

ya looks like the center is still on the east side but coser to middle of convection on that ir loop, maybe 14.5n 38.5w; tough to tell; as for long term track i was fighting the computer models all night until the steering map came out and showed the trough due to hit the atlantic already dipping to 30n, so even if it misses initial points that trough still looks to be near to as strong as the models suggested despite the time of year and lack of a major ridge behind it, so i have to concede the models may have nailed it for the time being; we will know more based on the speed that the trough moves westward and amount of the storm's outflow into the northern ridge by tonight

Dry air is approaching northern Florida.....

Can anyone show the first trough dipping down?

I don't see it being right under it, it's still suffering from shear.

It's on the eastern side like it has been, but it is a bit better than it was.

Quoting IKE:
Dry air is approaching northern Florida.....

Is that the trough at the tip of 30N or higher at 40N?

Tropical Storm Danielle Nearing Hurricane Strength...
Aug 23, 2010 6:03 AM

Tropical Storm Danielle has continued to strengthen this morning, and is approaching hurricane strength as the sun rises. As of 5 a.m. EDT, Danielle was located some 1600 miles east of the U.S. Virgin Islands and had maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph. Danielle is now moving to the west-northwest at 14 mph with an increase in forward speed expected through the day. The storm is expected to become a hurricane later today.

The track forecast for Danielle is essentially unchanged as the major players on the field are fairly well accounted for... at least over the next several days. An upper-level ridge of high pressure north of Danielle should steer the system in a general west-northwest direction across the open Atlantic over the next couple of days while Danielle gains strength. As we look ahead to Wednesday, an upper-level trough passing across the central Atlantic will cause a weakness to develop in the ridge, and Danielle should slow down and turn more to the northwest in response to this. It remains unclear as to how much this trough will be able to pick up Danielle and turn her eastward.

As it stands now, we expect the trough to bypass Danielle, and the cyclone may even turn back to the west-northwest for a time or even stall altogether. A second trough will push into the Atlantic, however, by the weekend and should keep Danielle from becoming a threat to North America. Bermuda, on the other-hand, will have to monitor this system closely as we expect Danielle to be at hurricane strength at closest approach. The current thinking is that Danielle will remain east of Bermuda, but that could easily change as we head through the week. Regardless, rough surf can be expected later in the week and over the weekend.

With regard to the strength of Danielle, one factor keeping this storm from going nuts is moderate upper level easterly shear. This should abate over the next 24 hours, but then relatively dry air will become the limiting factor for a day or two... and after getting past this obstacle upper-level wind shear will increase with the aforementioned series of upper-level troughs moving through the North Atlantic. Therefore, strengthening should be fairly slow but steady over the next several days with Danielle becoming a Category 2 Hurricane in four-days time.

Elsewhere across the Atlantic basin there is a strong tropical wave emerging off of the coast of Africa and will have to be monitored over the next few days. A cluster of showers and thunderstorms over the eastern Gulf of Mexico is also something to keep an eye on, but has a very low probability of developing.

By AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Randy Adkins

Quoting scott39:
Is that the trough at the tip of 30N or higher at 40N?

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
424 AM EDT MON AUG 23 2010

.SYNOPSIS...THE LONG WAVE PATTERN ACROSS N AMERICA THIS MORNING
FEATURES A TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW AND GREAT BASIN...A LARGE HOT
RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL U.S. AND AN UPPER LOW OVER UPSTATE NY. SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE NEAR LONG
ISLAND SWWD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND CAROLINAS TO CENTRAL
GA...AND THEN W INTO N TX. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MUCH DRIER MID
LEVEL AIR PUSHING SWD TO NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS WAS EVIDENT
ON THE ATLANTA AND BIRMINGHAM 00Z SOUNDINGS.

This was the first intensity forecast from Blake on 5pm EDT Saturday:

ORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/2100Z 11.0N 32.1W 25 KT
12HR VT 22/0600Z 11.5N 33.2W 35 KT
24HR VT 22/1800Z 12.6N 35.4W 45 KT
36HR VT 23/0600Z 13.6N 38.2W 55 KT
48HR VT 23/1800Z 14.4N 41.4W 65 KT
72HR VT 24/1800Z 17.5N 47.5W 85 KT
96HR VT 25/1800Z 21.0N 52.0W 95 KT
120HR VT 26/1800Z 24.5N 55.5W 95 KT

Hurricane by late Monday originally. Could have been a good call.

Quoting IKE:


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
424 AM EDT MON AUG 23 2010

.SYNOPSIS...THE LONG WAVE PATTERN ACROSS N AMERICA THIS MORNING
FEATURES A TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW AND GREAT BASIN...A LARGE HOT
RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL U.S. AND AN UPPER LOW OVER UPSTATE NY. SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE NEAR LONG
ISLAND SWWD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND CAROLINAS TO CENTRAL
GA...AND THEN W INTO N TX. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MUCH DRIER MID
LEVEL AIR PUSHING SWD TO NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS WAS EVIDENT
ON THE ATLANTA AND BIRMINGHAM 00Z SOUNDINGS.

thanks

Quoting IKE:
Dry air is approaching northern Florida.....

I didn't think any way was that getting this far south. OOOPS! lol. I was wrong imagine that. :) Ah well. At least it's going to cool off.

AREAS...MAINLY EASTERN ZONES...THAT RECEIVED THE RAINFALL AND SAW
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSH THROUGH THEM...HAVE SEEN A DROP IN TEMPERATURES
AND DEW POINTS WHEN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. SO EVEN THOUGH THESE
AREAS WILL AGAIN SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND
100...HEAT INDEX READINGS THAT REACHED 109 AT KAEX AND 110 AT KARA
ON SUNDAY...SHOULD BE A LITTLE LOWER TODAY. SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS STILL HAVE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO SEE LOWER DEW POINTS IN THESE AREAS.
STILL THINK THAT SOME CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION
LATER TODAY...MAY ALSO KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES IN CHECK. AFTER
MAKING TWEAKS TO GUIDANCE DEW POINTS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS...AM
ONLY GETTING HEAT INDEX VALUES THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 102 AND 107.
THEREFORE...HAVE DECIDED NOT TO RE-ISSUE HEAT ADVISORY AS THE HOT
CONDITIONS WILL BE BELOW THE LOCAL CRITERIA NEEDED.

;)

You can tell the centre of circulation is on the eastern side.

Oh Boy, I hope the people of Bermuda is keeping a close eye on this storm.

TropicalStormDanielle's heading has been holding fairly steady, changing only from 4.8degrees north of WestNorthWest to 4.7degrees north of WestNorthWest.
- Date - - - Time - - - - - Location - - Windspeed - Pressure
22Aug - 09amGMT - 12.1n33.4w - - 35mph . . . . 1007mb - NHC.Adv.3
22Aug - 12pmGMT - 12.2n33.9w - - 30knots . . . 1007mb - NHC-ATCF
22Aug - 03pmGMT - 12.7n34.1w - - 35mph . . . . 1007mb - NHC.Adv.4
22Aug - 06pmGMT - 13.2n34.6w - - 30knots . . . 1007mb - NHC-ATCF
NHC upgrades TD6 to TS.Danielle
22Aug - 09pmGMT - 13.4n35.1w - - 40mph . . . . 1005mb - NHC.Adv.5
23Aug - 12amGMT - 13.9n35.4w - - 40knots . . . 1003mb - NHC-ATCF *14.0n35.3w*
23Aug - 03amGMT - 14.2n35.9w - - 50mph . . . . 1000mb - NHC.Adv.6
23Aug - 06amGMT - 14.5n36.5w - - 50knots - - - - 997mb - NHC-ATCF *14.8n36.0w,45knots,1000mb*
23Aug - 09amGMT - 14.8n37.1w - - 60 mph . . . . . 997mb - NHC.Adv.7
~43.5knots=50mph _ _ _ 50knots=~57.5mph _ _ _ ~52.2knots=60mph
NHC rounds windspeeds to the nearest 5mph or to the nearest 5knots

*before NHC reevaluated&altered TS.Danielle's path*

Copy&paste 13.4n35.1w-13.9n35.4w, 13.9n35.4w-14.2n35.9w, 14.2n35.9w-14.5n36.5w, 14.5n36.5w-14.8n37.1w, hex, bda, sid, pos into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12hours.

And CONGRATULATIONS to the WUbers who spotted a smoother, more westward movement than what the NHC had been posting through its TS-center positions.

Quoting IKE:
Tropical Storm Danielle Nearing Hurricane Strength...
Aug 23, 2010 6:03 AM

Tropical Storm Danielle has continued to strengthen this morning, and is approaching hurricane strength as the sun rises. As of 5 a.m. EDT, Danielle was located some 1600 miles east of the U.S. Virgin Islands and had maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph. Danielle is now moving to the west-northwest at 14 mph with an increase in forward speed expected through the day. The storm is expected to become a hurricane later today.

The track forecast for Danielle is essentially unchanged as the major players on the field are fairly well accounted for... at least over the next several days. An upper-level ridge of high pressure north of Danielle should steer the system in a general west-northwest direction across the open Atlantic over the next couple of days while Danielle gains strength. As we look ahead to Wednesday, an upper-level trough passing across the central Atlantic will cause a weakness to develop in the ridge, and Danielle should slow down and turn more to the northwest in response to this. It remains unclear as to how much this trough will be able to pick up Danielle and turn her eastward.

As it stands now, we expect the trough to bypass Danielle, and the cyclone may even turn back to the west-northwest for a time or even stall altogether. A second trough will push into the Atlantic, however, by the weekend and should keep Danielle from becoming a threat to North America. Bermuda, on the other-hand, will have to monitor this system closely as we expect Danielle to be at hurricane strength at closest approach. The current thinking is that Danielle will remain east of Bermuda, but that could easily change as we head through the week. Regardless, rough surf can be expected later in the week and over the weekend.

With regard to the strength of Danielle, one factor keeping this storm from going nuts is moderate upper level easterly shear. This should abate over the next 24 hours, but then relatively dry air will become the limiting factor for a day or two... and after getting past this obstacle upper-level wind shear will increase with the aforementioned series of upper-level troughs moving through the North Atlantic. Therefore, strengthening should be fairly slow but steady over the next several days with Danielle becoming a Category 2 Hurricane in four-days time.

Elsewhere across the Atlantic basin there is a strong tropical wave emerging off of the coast of Africa and will have to be monitored over the next few days. A cluster of showers and thunderstorms over the eastern Gulf of Mexico is also something to keep an eye on, but has a very low probability of developing.

By AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Randy Adkins

So the first trough is expected to bypass. What is going to make her go NW soon? According to track forecast. Seems like it will have to shift left.

Quoting homelesswanderer:


I didn't think any way was that getting this far south. OOOPS! lol. I was wrong imagine that. :) Ah well. At least it's going to cool off.

AREAS...MAINLY EASTERN ZONES...THAT RECEIVED THE RAINFALL AND SAW
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSH THROUGH THEM...HAVE SEEN A DROP IN TEMPERATURES
AND DEW POINTS WHEN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. SO EVEN THOUGH THESE
AREAS WILL AGAIN SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND
100...HEAT INDEX READINGS THAT REACHED 109 AT KAEX AND 110 AT KARA
ON SUNDAY...SHOULD BE A LITTLE LOWER TODAY. SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS STILL HAVE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO SEE LOWER DEW POINTS IN THESE AREAS.
STILL THINK THAT SOME CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION
LATER TODAY...MAY ALSO KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES IN CHECK. AFTER
MAKING TWEAKS TO GUIDANCE DEW POINTS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS...AM
ONLY GETTING HEAT INDEX VALUES THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 102 AND 107.
THEREFORE...HAVE DECIDED NOT TO RE-ISSUE HEAT ADVISORY AS THE HOT
CONDITIONS WILL BE BELOW THE LOCAL CRITERIA NEEDED.

;)

At least the air will be dryer. Forecast here is for highs in the upper 90's the next few days, but lower humidity.

96 hour GFS shows Danielle and maybe Earl(headed in the same direction)...

Good morning guys wow looking at Sat and I really don't think that it is that far north and east or if it was the it had moved west and a bit south why I say that is because for stronger storms that are developing into hurricanes like our TS Danielle you can see the higher clouds start to take up this cyclonic motion and then if picks up enough motion it helps to form clouds

link to sat is here

Link

so ok after looking at this I see the COC at 14.2N 38.2W moving west and I am 98.99999999999999999% sure

Repost as requested

Quoting DestinJeff:
Not a mammal, but a....

Marsupial

From our NWS in Peachtree City:

.SYNOPSIS...
DIFFERENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLVING THAT PROMISES TO BRING SOME
WELCOME CHANGES TO THE WEATHER ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. UPPER FLOW
WILL REMAIN MORE AMPLIFIED THAN OBSERVED IN RECENT WEEKS. KEY
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THROUGH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE A DEEP UPPER
LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THAT WILL PERSIST AND BE
REINFORCED BY ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY TRAVELING AROUND A BROAD
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT WILL RETROGRADE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE WEAK FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY
PUSHING THROUGH GA...WILL STALL ALONG THE SE U.S. COAST AND REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK. A SECONDARY REINFORCING FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE U.S. DURING MID-WEEK...WITH AN ATTENDANT LARGE SFC HIGH
SPREADING ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE SCENARIO WILL YIELD DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS
ACROSS OUR CWA THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN WEEKS...WITH THE CAVEAT AND
CONCERN BEING THAT THE STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF MUST BE
WATCHED FOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT LATER IN THE WEEK.

Quoting Thundercloud01221991:


well dont worry the unpopular stance is becoming popular

BAwhaaahaaa - great line - Big belly laugh
Enjoying the read this morning
Lordy, this stuff so fascinates me even if I only understand half it

If the first trough is expected to bypass Danielle, what is going to make her turn more N?

Quoting IKE:


At least the air will be dryer. Forecast here is for highs in the upper 90's the next few days, but lower humidity.

96 hour GFS shows Danielle and maybe Earl(headed in the same direction)...

Yeah, we'll take what dry we can get. As for the storms I hope they do follow each other out to sea. Haven't looked at models in couple days though. Had an important b-day engagement this weekend. Grandbaby turned five. Man, a roomful of kids can wear ya out. Lol.

Quoting DestinJeff:
Not a mammal, but a....

I will not say the F word!

Quoting scott39:
If the first trough is expected to bypass Danielle, what is going to make her turn more N?

the GIANT weakness over florida in the image i just posted; only way anything else happens is if an outflow from D buids a stronger ridge to its north but with a trough that deep-idk, usually thats an october feature not august but models seem to have been right

Good Mornin Surf:0)
Yes waking up to rain tapping on the window.
Such a great way to start the day.

GOMEX/SWFL - Surf Report - AURASURF
Troughy WX sticks around and there will be a knee to possibly thigh high wave late Monday into Tuesday as the kids go back to school. By next weekend a solid swell from a tropical cyclone will hit the EC. Before you go and book your hotel keep in mind it looks like a devil wind with 15knt onshores by Sunday. Keep an eye on it.

I always enjoy comparing the surf perspective w/the WU "weatherboys" view

Quoting spathy:
Good Mornin Surf:0)
Yes waking up to rain tapping on the window.
Such a great way to start the day.

Spathy : )
I'm soooooo REFRESHED - lol
the caffeine even has kick this AM

59F.. 88% humidity.. light rain, west winds at 10mph.

about the steering & trough though it should be pointed out that StormW was right, the early models showed that trough but no strong ridge to its west, which is why they were deemed unbelievable, that is one monster ridge to its west in real life

Quoting smuldy:
the GIANT weakness over florida in the image i just posted; only way anything else happens is if an outflow from D buids a stronger ridge to its north but with a trough that deep-idk, usually thats an october feature not august but models seem to have been right

Im confused about the first trough because accuweather says bypass--stall--and then second one picks it up.

Danielle looks to be a classic fish storm...great. The models have been predicting its future path quite well over the past couple of days. Hopefully, the weakness left behind by Danielle, combined with stronger troughs to the north as the fall season approaches will influence the paths of any other Cape Verde storms and keep them out to sea also.

Late-season storms which form in the Caribbean may be another story, but that's something to worry about later, from late September through about mid-November.

x

I'm probably days behind, again, but they added ECMWF op and ensemble to this site. Link

Send some of that cooler air to the Texas Gulf Coast,,,,We are baking! Heat Index of 107 forecasted again this afternoon......Kids back in school,,so no fun for football practice...

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 23 AUG 2010 Time : 083000 UTC
Lat : 14:44:59 N Lon : 36:59:49 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.4 / 995.2mb/ 53.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.4 3.4 3.4

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -37.4C Cloud Region Temp : -44.2C

Scene Type : SHEAR (0.04^ TO DG)

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

Quoting scott39:
Im confused about the first trough because accuweather says bypass--stall--and then second one picks it up.

idk about AW, the models had the one over FL now picking it up in the central at hence the track way east of bermuda; if there is a split off georgia that travels ne and becomes a noreaster that could create a seperate low ahead of the trough in florida and that low could be too far north for D to feel, maybe that is what they mean, but i honestly dont know; i was fighting the models until i saw how low that weakness was, if someone wants to convince me that D will miss that I love being contrarion so I'll take a listen

morning bloggers

Quoting StormW:
I hold the center at 14.8N;38.6W

what direction?

the high is back building in storm

2849 west