Tropical Depression Six arrives
Tropical Storm Tropical Depression Six is here, but it will not be a threat to land for at least the next five days. Tropical Depression Six is a classic "Cape Verdes"-type storm common during the peak part of hurricane season. Cape Verdes-type storms are so named because they form from tropical waves that come off the coast of Africa and pass near the Cape Verdes Islands just west of Africa. Cape Verdes hurricanes are the largest and most dangerous types of hurricane in the Atlantic, since they spend a long time over water have and have of opportunity to reach full maturity. Tropical Depression Six has a ways to go before it becomes a hurricane, as the storm is embedded in a strong easterly flow of wind courtesy of the African Monsoon that is generating a moderately high 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. There is also a tropical disturbance to the northeast of TD 6 that is sucking away some moisture and is interfering with the storm's circulation. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are a warm 28°C, and the storm is embedded in a moist environment, so wind shear is the primary inhibiting factor for development. The strong east winds imparting the shear are keeping any heavy thunderstorms from developing on the east side of the center of circulation, which is exposed to view in satellite imagery (Figure 1.)
Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Tropical Depression Six.
Forecast for Tropical Depression Six
A ridge of high pressure will force Tropical Depression Six to the west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 10 mph to 15 mph by Monday night. A powerful trough of low pressure over the mid-Atlantic Ocean will begin to pull Tropical Depression Six more to the northwest late this week, and the storm should pass well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands. It remains to be seen, however, it this trough will be strong enough to fully recurve Tropical Depression Six out to sea. The GFS predicts that Tropical Depression Six may pass close to Bermuda about eight days from now, and it is also possible that Tropical Depression Six could eventually hit the U.S. East Coast 9 - 15 days from now. However, we have no skill in making these sort of ultra-long range forecasts, and the long-range fate of TD 6 is uncertain.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF and NOGAPS models are predicting formation of a tropical depression off the coast of Africa 3 - 4 days from now.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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ecmwf new
Out 'til later.
It looks like the area could be fed energy from TS FRANK in the Pacific.
Could become Earl indeed.
Patrap it looks like your radar captured an earthquake in Georgia
I was only joking around lol.. I dont want a storm to hit me, well not a storm over cat. 1 winds.
Probably not.
here take a look
Link
look under the image #3
22/1745 UTC 12.7N 34.6W T2.5/2.5 06L -- Atlantic
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.2N LONCUR = 34.6W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 11.7N LONM12 = 33.0W DIRM12 = 303DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 10.8N LONM24 = 31.8W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
MARK
13.37N/34.52W
Danielle coming?
SAB at T2.5.
Both those estimates equal to a 40mph TS. Let's see what type of decision the NHC makes at 5p.m EDT.
Looks like we could have Danielle at 5pm.
WHXX01 KWBC 221829
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1829 UTC SUN AUG 22 2010
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE SIX (AL062010) 20100822 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100822 1800 100823 0600 100823 1800 100824 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.2N 34.6W 14.2N 36.1W 15.6N 38.6W 17.3N 41.9W
BAMD 13.2N 34.6W 14.0N 36.6W 15.1N 39.0W 16.2N 41.5W
BAMM 13.2N 34.6W 14.2N 36.5W 15.4N 39.2W 16.7N 42.4W
LBAR 13.2N 34.6W 14.0N 36.9W 15.1N 40.1W 15.9N 43.2W
SHIP 30KTS 34KTS 42KTS 51KTS
DSHP 30KTS 34KTS 42KTS 51KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100824 1800 100825 1800 100826 1800 100827 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.0N 45.6W 21.3N 52.5W 21.3N 57.1W 22.2N 57.1W
BAMD 17.7N 43.9W 21.3N 48.1W 24.8N 51.9W 28.0N 55.2W
BAMM 18.2N 45.6W 20.5N 50.9W 22.2N 54.4W 24.9N 55.5W
LBAR 17.2N 46.8W 19.6N 52.5W 23.5N 54.7W 26.2N 56.9W
SHIP 59KTS 69KTS 73KTS 73KTS
DSHP 59KTS 69KTS 73KTS 73KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.2N LONCUR = 34.6W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 11.7N LONM12 = 33.0W DIRM12 = 303DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 10.8N LONM24 = 31.8W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
OUT SEA
LOL.. Like that 1% hurricane increase every year? I have State Farm and they are always increasing my premiums.
Thunderstorms are grouping around the center. Stregnthening can now be anticipated.
...and look at the expanding area with 26.C waters down to nearly 600 feet below the surface. You know the comparisons: two football fields...a 60-story building...more than a tenth of a mile. It's gonna take a couple of parked Camille's to drain the Viagra out of that mess (click for larger image):
Thanks! This will be a tricky one to forecast, that's for sure!
2.9 /1001.0mb/ 43.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.4 2.8 2.8
going up
CMC closes up the weakeness in the ridge, and the storm starts heading towards my area! O.o
Taz, what is "T#"?
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