Tropical Depression Six arrives

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:14 PM GMT en Agosto 22, 2010

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Tropical Storm Tropical Depression Six is here, but it will not be a threat to land for at least the next five days. Tropical Depression Six is a classic "Cape Verdes"-type storm common during the peak part of hurricane season. Cape Verdes-type storms are so named because they form from tropical waves that come off the coast of Africa and pass near the Cape Verdes Islands just west of Africa. Cape Verdes hurricanes are the largest and most dangerous types of hurricane in the Atlantic, since they spend a long time over water have and have of opportunity to reach full maturity. Tropical Depression Six has a ways to go before it becomes a hurricane, as the storm is embedded in a strong easterly flow of wind courtesy of the African Monsoon that is generating a moderately high 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. There is also a tropical disturbance to the northeast of TD 6 that is sucking away some moisture and is interfering with the storm's circulation. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are a warm 28°C, and the storm is embedded in a moist environment, so wind shear is the primary inhibiting factor for development. The strong east winds imparting the shear are keeping any heavy thunderstorms from developing on the east side of the center of circulation, which is exposed to view in satellite imagery (Figure 1.)


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Tropical Depression Six.

Forecast for Tropical Depression Six
A ridge of high pressure will force Tropical Depression Six to the west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 10 mph to 15 mph by Monday night. A powerful trough of low pressure over the mid-Atlantic Ocean will begin to pull Tropical Depression Six more to the northwest late this week, and the storm should pass well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands. It remains to be seen, however, it this trough will be strong enough to fully recurve Tropical Depression Six out to sea. The GFS predicts that Tropical Depression Six may pass close to Bermuda about eight days from now, and it is also possible that Tropical Depression Six could eventually hit the U.S. East Coast 9 - 15 days from now. However, we have no skill in making these sort of ultra-long range forecasts, and the long-range fate of TD 6 is uncertain.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF and NOGAPS models are predicting formation of a tropical depression off the coast of Africa 3 - 4 days from now.

Jeff Masters

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Tomorrow's word of the day: Hurricane
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1381. smuldy
Quoting LADobeLady:


Spoken like someone who's never been through a big one. It's never just a few days, and living in the South without ac for weeks is not fun. School/work are paradise compared to that.
always a few days in miami; katrina was 2 hours, wilma was 48 (miami beach). others in homestead and remote areas nearby arent so lucky though so i will refrain from wishcasting.
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This reminds me of a saying,

"A trough a day keeps the hurricane away" - StormX
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1379. alfabob
22:45 UTC IR2
23:01 UTC ASCAT

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1378. Patrap


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1377. xcool
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
6 hours ago weren't people saying this was going to dissipate?

Now the word on their mouths is "hurricane"


6 hours ago I left thinking I'd have to wait till tomorrow to see Danielle...that thought is well gone now that I've seen her with my own eyes!
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Quoting AllStar17:
The long-term track of Danielle remains very uncertain, and there is a very large spread in the model guidance.


?

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aqua danielle will be a major hurricane as it approaches 50-55west...perfect recipe light shear no dry air and a high right over it...i say 130-140mph by late wed and early thursday...
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1372. aquak9
Do you think they are going to name this depression Danielle soon??????

Grothar...lives in the past. But that's ok.
Member Since: Agosto 13, 2005 Posts: 171 Comments: 26257
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
6 hours ago weren't people saying this was going to dissipate?

Now the word on their mouths is "hurricane"



"It's decoupling!!"

"Hurricane by morn'!"
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1370. Grothar
Quoting DestinJeff:


"me thinks"!

Everybody take a shot!


Leaveth the poor boy alone, lest he reapeth havoc uponst thou.
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1369. Asta
Hey all- just got 3/4 of an inch of rain from the thunderstorm moving south over covington...
looks like we'll get some more.. lots of lightning and wind gusts ... The dogs freaked out- but the Garden is happy-
With this moving south-what is the GOM up to ya think?
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1368. SeaMule
fish storm schmish storm...this thing is heading for us....


got a bad feeling about Danielle? wanna know why?? she is not ramping up yet...and building convection...and I just got a feeling the troughs aren't strong enough.....

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The long-term track of Danielle remains very uncertain, and there is a very large spread in the model guidance.
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1365. xcool
Stormchaser2007 .lmao yep
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Quoting Grothar:
Hey PcolaDan, thought you moved out of the country. How you been? Back now that the tropics are active? See how you are!!!


Heyyyy Grothar. How've you been. No, didn't move. Just left for a month to England. About died when I got back to this 80 degree dew point and 90+ temps.
And no volcano for me to watch now, and with the tropics picking back up...
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Danielle at 23.:15UTC. Fasten your seat belts, she's intensifying at DMIN!!
Member Since: Agosto 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting Huracaneer:
Wow, hadn't looked at Danielle in a while, nice blowup. Kind of scary since I been watching National Geographic specials on Katrina. Always remember the day after she blew up in the Gulf and became a Cat 5. Still gives a sick feeling because I knew at that time that it was going to be real bad for somebody.

Same here, it's frighting.
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1360. hydrus
Quoting Grothar:


Yo hydrus! You should have said that to me 93 years ago. I would have showed you who was old. LOL

Do you think they are going to name this depression Danielle soon??????
It is Danielle already...We could have Earl also in less than a week.
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1359. xcool
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6 hours ago weren't people saying this was going to dissipate?

Now the word on their mouths is "hurricane"

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According to CIMSS this is a 60 mph storm:

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 22 AUG 2010 Time : 231500 UTC
Lat : 13:32:54 N Lon : 35:27:39 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.3 / 996.4mb/ 51.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.3 3.4 3.4

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -29.2C Cloud Region Temp : -39.5C

Scene Type : SHEAR (0.04^ TO DG)

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

It's actually 58.65 mph if you wanna get technical but they would round up.
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1356. aquak9
history of the Aqua part 1...

ok looks like stormtop (or whoever he claims to be, grrrrr) has got this one right. Highly expect dani to catch the second trough strong, not agreein' on the intensification tho.
Member Since: Agosto 13, 2005 Posts: 171 Comments: 26257
1355. IKE
Five-day track on Frank Gifford....

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To post 1323,

Well put summary on computer models.
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Quoting xcool:


rob
new york city got red o this map to.
Member Since: Agosto 17, 2010 Posts: 3 Comments: 1561
Quoting stormpetrol:
Quoting 1992Andrew:
Hey I feel like wishcasting. Something about living in Miami and driving through its traffic... on a sunday.

What are the chances this thing misses the second trof? I could use a day or two off from school and work.
be careful what u wish for, i was without electricity for 5 weeks post ivan 2004, living like they did back in the 50s here no fun!
I love living in East End but after Ivan GT got power back a lot quicker than us. We were without for 2 1/2 months. LOL
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1348. Grothar
Quoting hydrus:
Quoting will45:


all the old people are in the Carolinas

With the very oldest existing in Florida....Grothar for example is act....Oh...Hi Gro


Yo hydrus! You should have said that to me 93 years ago. I would have showed you who was old. LOL

Do you think they are going to name this depression Danielle soon??????
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1346. Dakster
Quoting aquak9:
ya'll aren't gonna let this go, are ya.

ok I thought my screen name and my email addy had to be the same. WaterDog and every version of it was already taken many many years ago on AOL. Comcast, yahoo, gmail, everything. Aquak9 was the best I could come up with.

Now I answer my phone as Aqua. I morphed from a semi-intelligent human to a weather-obsessed wet dog.


Woof, Woof, Grrr, growl, bark.
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1345. Patrap
Itsa gonna be a really LONG week..
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Quoting jason2010xxxx:
nice picture of the fish storm Danielle


NOTHING is a sure thing yet,
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1343. xcool


rob
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Has there ever been a case of a TS strengthening into a hurricane without convection over the center? I've seen some weak tropical storms straighten slightly in such a case. But, I don't recall any making it above 60mph. I don't think Danielle will make it to hurricane status until that center finds some convection to hide under.

That tower looks mighty hot, though.

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Danielle has gotta be damn near hurricane status..especially if it keeps this trend up.



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Quoting Ryuujin:


Hahahhaha. Okay. Okay. Defend IKE all you wish bro. My remark, even if made in error, was an in earnest questioning to why people agree with one model when it suits their needs but do-not when it doesn't. That's it. It also hits home to the question I've raised over and over again about the known cold bias GFS has and the potential non-effect it may have on Danielle.


See, there you go. I didn't defend Ike, I defended his statement and argued that your statement was directly aimed at him. Your legitimate remark was lost in your attack on someone.
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nice picture of the fish storm Danielle
Member Since: Agosto 17, 2010 Posts: 3 Comments: 1561
1338. xcool
guess August about too ramp-up
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me thinks we need to watch for some surpise mischief in the gom shear is dropping has a weak 850 mb vorticity also 700 and 500 mb as well though the 500 mb isnt stacked well...all im saying we may have a surpise in the gom in a few days
Member Since: Julio 13, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 10796
1336. beell
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Almost there, meant to write that in my sentence. Anyways, the circulation is completely under the convection, however, it isn't in the center of it, its off towards the east.

Shortwave


Been a steady low-level flow from the SW all day with Danielle. Still noticable on IR Loop at the extreme bottom-right of the frame. Towards the competing disturbance to the NE. This low-level flow was not wrapping in to the center-adding some stronger almost zonal (E/W) shear to the SE side. Competing center looks to be about done and Danielle should be able to wrap and intensify.
Member Since: Septiembre 11, 2007 Posts: 144 Comments: 16875
Quoting aquak9:


I've been locked in this room now for over five years....
You need us to call the police or something? lol (joke)
Member Since: Agosto 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 895
Quoting aquak9:
ya'll aren't gonna let this go, are ya.

ok I thought my screen name and my email addy had to be the same. WaterDog and every version of it was already taken many many years ago on AOL. Comcast, yahoo, gmail, everything. Aquak9 was the best I could come up with.

Now I answer my phone as Aqua. I morphed from a semi-intelligent human to a weather-obsessed wet dog.


OH it's aqua k-nine! I always read it as a quak. You know, like the sound a duck makes. Quack.
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Quoting DestinJeff:


I can make it to Da Funyak Springs on a gallon of gas. No need to worry.


A gallon will get me to Youngstown, should be plenty. The house there will be empty as my mother-in-law will have already evacuated to North Dakota or Maine. lol
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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