Tropical Depression Six arrives
Tropical Storm Tropical Depression Six is here, but it will not be a threat to land for at least the next five days. Tropical Depression Six is a classic "Cape Verdes"-type storm common during the peak part of hurricane season. Cape Verdes-type storms are so named because they form from tropical waves that come off the coast of Africa and pass near the Cape Verdes Islands just west of Africa. Cape Verdes hurricanes are the largest and most dangerous types of hurricane in the Atlantic, since they spend a long time over water have and have of opportunity to reach full maturity. Tropical Depression Six has a ways to go before it becomes a hurricane, as the storm is embedded in a strong easterly flow of wind courtesy of the African Monsoon that is generating a moderately high 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. There is also a tropical disturbance to the northeast of TD 6 that is sucking away some moisture and is interfering with the storm's circulation. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are a warm 28°C, and the storm is embedded in a moist environment, so wind shear is the primary inhibiting factor for development. The strong east winds imparting the shear are keeping any heavy thunderstorms from developing on the east side of the center of circulation, which is exposed to view in satellite imagery (Figure 1.)
Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Tropical Depression Six.
Forecast for Tropical Depression Six
A ridge of high pressure will force Tropical Depression Six to the west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 10 mph to 15 mph by Monday night. A powerful trough of low pressure over the mid-Atlantic Ocean will begin to pull Tropical Depression Six more to the northwest late this week, and the storm should pass well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands. It remains to be seen, however, it this trough will be strong enough to fully recurve Tropical Depression Six out to sea. The GFS predicts that Tropical Depression Six may pass close to Bermuda about eight days from now, and it is also possible that Tropical Depression Six could eventually hit the U.S. East Coast 9 - 15 days from now. However, we have no skill in making these sort of ultra-long range forecasts, and the long-range fate of TD 6 is uncertain.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF and NOGAPS models are predicting formation of a tropical depression off the coast of Africa 3 - 4 days from now.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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My guess is the High is not as strong as the Steering maps are showing. Truly the only answer at this point. But, if you look at where Danielle is now and you look at the Steering Graphics there a small amount of space for Danielle to move North. But, soon a more Westerly track should be coming.
TS Mindulle
It's ok. I cleaned it off...
her vertical stacking may play a role also. I havent looked at all the steering layers. Sometime they are the same and sometimes they are not
Discussion
Larry Cosgrove
The subtropical high will, at time, experience weaknesses over Texas and the Gulf of Mexico. This is why some chances for showers and thunderstorms may crop up, especially by the weekend. There is a small possibility that energy from Tropical Storm Frank (in the Gulf of Tehuantepec) could move into the Bay of Campeche, then link with the vestiges of a frontal structure following the Gulf Coast. If so, we could have some cooling and heavy rainfall with thunderstorms this weekend.
Interesting idea, Doorman.
Momentum rules!
Lower Level Winds
The nor'easter that "bombs" on Monday and Tuesday will further weaken the west side existing ridge. The weakness will occur between the Bermuda high and the 1024 Canadian high that builds in from the west. If you want to get technical, troughs don't necessarily steer tropical systems, they just create the weaknesses between highs to follow.
Many thanks for that.
This one has "confusion" writ all over it, IMO!
I agree........must be Hugo...
Diane
Diane 1955
And that track sure looks possible
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 1
NAME TS 1005 MINDULLE
ANALYSIS
POSITION 230000UTC 15.8N 111.0E
MOVEMENT W 11KT
PRES/VMAX 995HPA 39KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 240000UTC 18.1N 108.2E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
48HR
POSITION 250000UTC 19.5N 105.7E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
72HR
POSITION 260000UTC 20.0N 102.9E WITHIN 0NM
PRES 998HPA
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.
----
40 knots from KMA
Jason....i am not going to disagree with you as you could very well be correct. But, 200%....you can't wait to get pounced on if you are wrong by many. YOU KNOW THAT!....LOL
Some serious rumblings to my east right now.
Flashing lights and all..........
Orca did it
Great, now watch Danielle explode!
ah ha
That must be why there is a Halo around the Moon.
Heavy Northern Mojo at work....
Jason has it!
The steering maps are plenty accurate, the issue lies with the the interpretation of the data. The maps show steering currents at the present time. If the steering currents remained unchanged for a week at a time, the storm would go directly where the map shows the currents taking it. But since all weather is fluid and always changing, steering currents included, this information is only good for a short amount of time. The forecast models try to predict how the steering currents will change.
Remember, the steering maps are not a road map bu they are fairly accurate.
I knew i wasnt seeing things.
he took it off to polish it pott
MARK
14.36N/36.23W
It seems the excitement with this storm has been happening "behind my back".... lol. The minute I stepped out of the house, BOOM! Danielle... lol
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